October Surprise!

[Hypoxia]

House of Cards: There’s Still Time to Replace Donald Trump as the GOP Nominee
"If he or Mike Pence goes, the Republican National Committee picks a new nominee — and that person can still prevail thanks to the electoral college."

But that won't happen.

Okay now folks, it's time for the October Surprise. What do you think it'll be? (I should probably make this a poll but I'm lazy.) I see various possibilities:

* One or both candidates are badly sickened, injured, or killed.
* Somebody releases really damaging tapes / files on one or both.
* Tremendous natural disaster -- tsunami, supervolcano, asteroid, etc.
* Huge unnatural disaster -- shooting war, terror attacks, etc.
* Widespread riots, insurrection, with imposition of martial law.
* Foreign(?) hackers wiping electoral databases and voting systems.
* UK revokes USA independence; queen E installs Charles as viceroy.
* Tromp announcing it was all a sick joke. Fooled ya, suckers!
* Nothing. We'll just drag wearily along till election day.

What did I leave out?

 

[Que]

As an actual member in good standing of the Sons of the American Revolution I vote for the UK rescinding our independence.

At this point, what difference would it make?

 

[Wrong Element]

House of Cards: There’s Still Time to Replace Donald Trump as the GOP Nominee
"If he or Mike Pence goes, the Republican National Committee picks a new nominee — and that person can still prevail thanks to the electoral college."

But that won't happen.

There's no precedent for anything like this, so not surprisingly I've seen different people saying different things about what's possible.

But one thing that seems fairly clear is that the party simply can't rescind a nomination -- something that would be suicidal anyway in the post-"smoke filled room" era; the party rank-and-file would never accept it. Trump would have to quit voluntarily, and he doesn't appear to be in the mood.

 

[Que]

There's no precedent for anything like this, so not surprisingly I've seen different people saying different things about what's possible.

But one thing that seems fairly clear is that the party simply can't rescind a nomination -- something that would be suicidal anyway in the post-"smoke filled room" era; the party rank-and-file would never accept it. Trump would have to quit voluntarily, and he doesn't appear to be in the mood.

Arizona has odd rules of succession. Which is how the Democrats with a compliant press were able to dump two sitting Republican governors with Trumped up "scandals" in favor of the Secretary of State.

Displeasing those in smoke-filled rooms is perilous in this state.

 

[Hypoxia]

There's no precedent for anything like this, so not surprisingly I've seen different people saying different things about what's possible.

Yeah, it's vanishingly unlikely. But theoretically possible. The article ends, "Then again, this year, unlikely is the new likely."

But one thing that seems fairly clear is that the party simply can't rescind a nomination -- something that would be suicidal anyway in the post-"smoke filled room" era; the party rank-and-file would never accept it. Trump would have to quit voluntarily, and he doesn't appear to be in the mood.

The article points out that GOP leaders have written-off Tromp and are trying to figure out how to save their congressional control. The party is fucked. Rather, those 'leaders' (mostly corporate puppets) have fucked themselves into their corner by promising the impossible and denying reality The rank-and-file will be a mob with torches, ready to burn-em down. (Visualize the scene outside Frankenstein's castle.)

Could the RNC declare Tromp mentally unfit? Says the article: "Yes, it would be unprecedented. Yes, it would lead to open revolt among Trump’s supporters. But if the overall survival of the Republican Party is really at stake, is it really that far-fetched?"

The GOPs who've backed and now abandoned Tromp have already shown they have no principles -- they'll do anything to keep their jobs, even if it meant kissing ass of the man who ridiculed them and their platforms, then fleeing when he became just too obvious. Reality *does* eventually catch up. Payback's a large female dog with fangs, hey?

 

[Hard_Rom]

Ballots have been printed and advanced polling already taking place. It may be too late for the GNC to get rid of Trump. Write ins for his running mate may be their only chance.

 

[Wrong Element]

Yeah, it's vanishingly unlikely. But theoretically possible. The article ends, "Then again, this year, unlikely is the new likely."

The article points out that GOP leaders have written-off Tromp and are trying to figure out how to save their congressional control. The party is fucked. Rather, those 'leaders' (mostly corporate puppets) have fucked themselves into their corner by promising the impossible and denying reality The rank-and-file will be a mob with torches, ready to burn-em down. (Visualize the scene outside Frankenstein's castle.)

Could the RNC declare Tromp mentally unfit? Says the article: "Yes, it would be unprecedented. Yes, it would lead to open revolt among Trump’s supporters. But if the overall survival of the Republican Party is really at stake, is it really that far-fetched?"

The GOPs who've backed and now abandoned Tromp have already shown they have no principles -- they'll do anything to keep their jobs, even if it meant kissing ass of the man who ridiculed them and their platforms, then fleeing when he became just too obvious. Reality *does* eventually catch up. Payback's a large female dog with fangs, hey?

The problem they have is that Trump did win the nomination fair and square, and he has more of a constituency than anyone else in the party -- and certainly more than Pence, who wasn't even a part of the primary campaign. Even if Trump gets blown out, he's going to have 50 million or so people vote for him. There's a way to quietly protect your congressional candidates while essentially giving up on your presidential candidate; it happened to Bob Dole in 1996.

The trick is getting those voters to show up for the downballot races, which they might not be inclined to do if the process of cutting Trump loose is too aggressive. And if Trump quits, but says in the process, "I'm quitting because the RNC by its actions has made it impossible for me to win," then it's Apocalypse Now.

 

[Wrong Element]

Ballots have been printed and advanced polling already taking place. It may be too late for the GNC to get rid of Trump. Write ins for his running mate may be their only chance.

This is true, but people are technically voting for delegates to the Electoral College, not for "Donald Trump and Mike Pence." So as long as those electors remain loyal -- and party loyalty is the primary qualification for that position -- the GOP could replace a nominee in the event of death or resignation, and still have the "Trump votes" count towards a new candidate. I think.

 

[Hard_Rom]

I was reading that disloyal electors may not be allowed to go against the popular vote.

 

[Que]

The problem they have is that Trump did win the nomination fair and square, and he has more of a constituency than anyone else in the party -- and certainly more than Pence, who wasn't even a part of the primary campaign. Even if Trump gets blown out, he's going to have 50 million or so people vote for him. There's a way to quietly protect your congressional candidates while essentially giving up on your presidential candidate; it happened to Bob Dole in 1996.

The trick is getting those voters to show up for the downballot races, which they might not be inclined to do if the process of cutting Trump loose is too aggressive. And if Trump quits, but says in the process, "I'm quitting because the RNC by its actions has made it impossible for me to win," then it's Apocalypse Now.

Dead right.

 

[MNGuy]

What did I leave out?

I guess the damaging tape would include a sex tape of the Donald and Hillary.
Demonic possession.
Coming out as transgendered.
Murder.

 

[Noor]

As an actual member in good standing of the Sons of the American Revolution I vote for the UK rescinding our independence.

At this point, what difference would it make?

Probably no difference, but a optional member of the DAR, I would join you!
Yay, Brexit!

I was reading that disloyal electors may not be allowed to go against the popular vote.

This has not been true in the past, where did you read that?

 

[Hypoxia]

I guess the damaging tape would include a sex tape of the Donald and Hillary. << I didn't have the stomach to mention that.
Demonic possession. << Isn't that the case already?
Coming out as transgendered. << Especially any of Tromp's wives.
Murder. << Don't be surprised if Tromp shoots HRC.

Early-on in the debate (so I read) Tromp said he'd throw HRC in jail. I suppose that's better than previously urging his supporters to shoot her. Welcome to his banana republic.

EDIT: For those unclear about electoral rules, the article (in my first post) explains. It varies among states. Many electors are pledged to the party, not the named candidates. in some states, electors are free to vote for whomever they want. Some are obliged to vote for the popular-vote leader.

The USA electoral system is a fragmented mess and it won't be fixed soon, if ever.

 

[Noor]

Early-on in the debate (so I read) Tromp said he'd throw HRC in jail. I suppose that's better than previously urging his supporters to shoot her. Welcome to his banana republic.

One could say we were a banana republic back in the pregnant chad days

 

[Colonel Hogan]

Okay now folks, it's time for the October Surprise. What do you think it'll be? (I should probably make this a poll but I'm lazy.) I see various possibilities:

* One or both candidates are badly sickened, injured, or killed.
* Somebody releases really damaging tapes / files on one or both.
* Tremendous natural disaster -- tsunami, supervolcano, asteroid, etc.
* Huge unnatural disaster -- shooting war, terror attacks, etc.
* Widespread riots, insurrection, with imposition of martial law.
* Foreign(?) hackers wiping electoral databases and voting systems.
* UK revokes USA independence; queen E installs Charles as viceroy.
* Tromp announcing it was all a sick joke. Fooled ya, suckers!
* Nothing. We'll just drag wearily along till election day.

What did I leave out?

Trump says something on an order of magnitude far more stupid than anything he has said so far.

Oh, wait......you did say surprise.





Sorry. Nevermind.

 

[Hypoxia]

One could say we were a banana republic back in the pregnant chad days

Oh, get me going! Two 'justices' had clear conflicts of interest. Thomas' wife and Scalia's son were officers of Bush campaigns and were thus parties to the suit that effectively installed Bush. Any lesser judges in such a position would either recuse themselves or be removed from the bench for misconduct.

And it didn't work out so well, did it? Coups get nasty fast.

 

[Hard_Rom]

Probably no difference, but a optional member of the DAR, I would join you!
Yay, Brexit!

This has not been true in the past, where did you read that?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/republicans-replace-trump/index.html

Faithless electors?

Election law expert Rick Hasen floated the idea of a "hail mary" in a tweetstorm Saturday morning, saying that Trump could still appear on the ballot but that the actual electors themselves who show up to the Electoral College to place the votes that decide who is president could then cast their votes for someone else. Like, say, for Pence.

"No, the Republican Hail Mary now is GOP faithless electors voting for Pence (or Romney?) instead of Trump in Electoral College vote," Hasen tweeted.

Hasen, writing in a longer blog post, explained that it would be a state-by-state decision and that some states bar so-called "faithless electors" from voting against the will of the voters.

"There are some laws that bar 'faithless' electors from casting votes for anyone who did not win the popular vote in a state, but I have a hard time believing either the Republican-controlled House or a court (because it raises a political question) would stop the actions of a faithless elector," Hasen writes.

But the "faithless elector" scenario still runs up against a mishmash of state laws, making it almost impossible for an across-the-board sweep of at least 270 electors defecting.

Vladeck explained that it remains a better option than pulling Trump's name from the ballot, but is still a longshot.

"The Electoral College is a different matter, so folks could vote 'for Trump' on assumption the electors will pick someone else, but I just don't see that happening," Vladeck said.




Also I am sure the Statute of Westminster 1936 that gave complete independence to the Dominions could be amended to include the US. You would be free to toss out your antiquated Republican system and replace it with a modern Westminster style of government such as the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand possess.

The Queen would be granted her old US citizenship and Buckingham Palace would be US territory when necessary.

You could end the divisive politics of having a separate legislative and executive. As long as your Prime Minister had a majority he could rule effectively. If not he would be forced to cooperate with Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition or perhaps a third party to get things done.

Chucky is heir apparent, not likely to be allowed to become Governor-General. You could invite him to be King perhaps. Eventually William would succeed him and reign over the Dominions and the US.

Canada does well appointing ex-Journalists as GG. I suppose you Yanks would prefer to have an actor be GG.

 

[jezzilee]

House of Cards: There’s Still Time to Replace Donald Trump as the GOP Nominee
"If he or Mike Pence goes, the Republican National Committee picks a new nominee — and that person can still prevail thanks to the electoral college."

But that won't happen.

Okay now folks, it's time for the October Surprise. What do you think it'll be? (I should probably make this a poll but I'm lazy.) I see various possibilities:

* One or both candidates are badly sickened, injured, or killed.
* Somebody releases really damaging tapes / files on one or both.
* Tremendous natural disaster -- tsunami, supervolcano, asteroid, etc.
* Huge unnatural disaster -- shooting war, terror attacks, etc.
* Widespread riots, insurrection, with imposition of martial law.
* Foreign(?) hackers wiping electoral databases and voting systems.
* UK revokes USA independence; queen E installs Charles as viceroy.
* Tromp announcing it was all a sick joke. Fooled ya, suckers!
* Nothing. We'll just drag wearily along till election day.

What did I leave out?

Current president orchestrates an event that allows him to claim martial law and remain the president until it goes out of effect.

 

[Noor]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/republicans-replace-trump/index.html

Faithless electors?

Election law expert Rick Hasen floated the idea of a "hail mary" in a tweetstorm Saturday morning, saying that Trump could still appear on the ballot but that the actual electors themselves who show up to the Electoral College to place the votes that decide who is president could then cast their votes for someone else. Like, say, for Pence.

"No, the Republican Hail Mary now is GOP faithless electors voting for Pence (or Romney?) instead of Trump in Electoral College vote," Hasen tweeted.

Hasen, writing in a longer blog post, explained that it would be a state-by-state decision and that some states bar so-called "faithless electors" from voting against the will of the voters.

"There are some laws that bar 'faithless' electors from casting votes for anyone who did not win the popular vote in a state, but I have a hard time believing either the Republican-controlled House or a court (because it raises a political question) would stop the actions of a faithless elector," Hasen writes.

But the "faithless elector" scenario still runs up against a mishmash of state laws, making it almost impossible for an across-the-board sweep of at least 270 electors defecting.

Vladeck explained that it remains a better option than pulling Trump's name from the ballot, but is still a longshot.

"The Electoral College is a different matter, so folks could vote 'for Trump' on assumption the electors will pick someone else, but I just don't see that happening," Vladeck said.




Also I am sure the Statute of Westminster 1936 that gave complete independence to the Dominions could be amended to include the US. You would be free to toss out your antiquated Republican system and replace it with a modern Westminster style of government such as the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand possess.

The Queen would be granted her old US citizenship and Buckingham Palace would be US territory when necessary.

You could end the divisive politics of having a separate legislative and executive. As long as your Prime Minister had a majority he could rule effectively. If not he would be forced to cooperate with Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition or perhaps a third party to get things done.

Chucky is heir apparent, not likely to be allowed to become Governor-General. You could invite him to be King perhaps. Eventually William would succeed him and reign over the Dominions and the US.

Canada does well appointing ex-Journalists as GG. I suppose you Yanks would prefer to have an actor be GG.

It would be interesting if noone gets the majority and the house of Representatives has to vote.

Interesting stuff on rejoining the uk

 

[phrodeau]

Ballots have been printed and advanced polling already taking place. It may be too late for the GNC to get rid of Trump. Write ins for his running mate may be their only chance.

Mike Pence could change his name to "Donald J. Trump."

 

[Hard_Rom]

It would be interesting if noone gets the majority and the house of Representatives has to vote.

That's where a GG would come in. To save the cost and hassle of a redo, they could make the decision and ask one party or another to form a government.

After the demise of the British Empire no colony which adopted a Westminster system descended into tyranny and oppression unlike most of those who adopted a Republican system.

 

[Emerson40]

In the America season finale, Trump will step to the podium one final time, just as voting begins, and remove the rubbery, orange mask to reveal that he is actually Gary Busey.

 

[Colonel Hogan]

In the America season finale, Trump will step to the podium one final time, just as voting begins, and remove the rubbery, orange mask to reveal that he is actually Gary Busey.

Thoroughly believable.

 

[Hard_Rom]

It would be interesting if noone gets the majority and the house of Representatives has to vote.

Interesting stuff on rejoining the uk

You would not be rejoining the UK. The Statute of Westminster 1936 gives complete independence from the UK. A head of state is shared but that is it. The Queen reigns not rules. There is a difference. Elizabeth's father at one point found himself a war with himself when Pakistan and India went to war. He also found himself a war with Germany as King of the UK and at peace with Germany as the King of Canada (until Canada went to war a week or so later).

Even if you chose your own King/Queen, the Westminster system is still a much better system than a Republican model. You flirted with making Washington King at one point.

The Westminster system of today is not the system that ran things back in 1776. It has evolved since then.

But as quite a few Yanks reject evolution...

 

[Hypoxia]

Mike Pence could change his name to "Donald J. Trump."

I've read of local elections with two rivals with the same name. Which Sam Smith am I supposed to vote for? If Pence changed to DJT, which one would be prez and which would be vice? Would they trade off?

It would be interesting if noone gets the majority and the house of Representatives has to vote.

That's where a GG would come in. To save the cost and hassle of a redo, they could make the decision and ask one party or another to form a government.

In current USA law there's no redo if nobody hits 270, only the House electing whomever they wish, not necessarily ANY of the above. Could be Rush Limbo and Gary Busey.