SugarDaddy1
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Obama officials and other Democrats fear strong, post-coronavirus economic recovery
- Thread starter SugarDaddy1
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Chuckles....Really? I think below is a more probable outcome....
"In September 2006, Nouriel Roubini told the International Monetary Fund what it didn’t want to hear. Standing before an audience of economists at the organization’s headquarters, the New York University professor warned that the U.S. housing market would soon collapse — and, quite possibly, bring the global financial system down with it. Real-estate values had been propped up by unsustainably shady lending practices, Roubini explained. Once those prices came back to earth, millions of underwater homeowners would default on their mortgages, trillions of dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities would unravel, and hedge funds, investment banks, and lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could sink into insolvency."
"Of course, the ensuing two years turned Roubini’s prophecy into history, and the little-known scholar of emerging markets into a Wall Street celebrity."
"A decade later, “Dr. Doom” is a bear once again. While many investors bet on a “V-shaped recovery,” Roubini is staking his reputation on an L-shaped depression. The economist (and host of a biweekly economic news broadcast) does expect things to get better before they get worse: He foresees a slow, lackluster (i.e., “U-shaped”) economic rebound in the pandemic’s immediate aftermath. But he insists that this recovery will quickly collapse beneath the weight of the global economy’s accumulated debts."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...t-coronavirus-depression-nouriel-roubini.html
HisArpy
Loose canon extraordinair
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Chuckles....Really? I think below is a more probable outcome....
"In September 2006, Nouriel Roubini told the International Monetary Fund what it didn’t want to hear. Standing before an audience of economists at the organization’s headquarters, the New York University professor warned that the U.S. housing market would soon collapse — and, quite possibly, bring the global financial system down with it. Real-estate values had been propped up by unsustainably shady lending practices, Roubini explained. Once those prices came back to earth, millions of underwater homeowners would default on their mortgages, trillions of dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities would unravel, and hedge funds, investment banks, and lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could sink into insolvency."
"Of course, the ensuing two years turned Roubini’s prophecy into history, and the little-known scholar of emerging markets into a Wall Street celebrity."
"A decade later, “Dr. Doom” is a bear once again. While many investors bet on a “V-shaped recovery,” Roubini is staking his reputation on an L-shaped depression. The economist (and host of a biweekly economic news broadcast) does expect things to get better before they get worse: He foresees a slow, lackluster (i.e., “U-shaped”) economic rebound in the pandemic’s immediate aftermath. But he insists that this recovery will quickly collapse beneath the weight of the global economy’s accumulated debts."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...t-coronavirus-depression-nouriel-roubini.html
Roubini is already proven wrong.
I do have to say that I admire some people's tenacity at trying to tank the market. It seems that for the past 2 weeks every time the market starts to climb, the headlines for the market news suddenly turn sour. And the market dips immediately afterward on the doom & gloom that never seems to happen.
Those headlines aren't enough to stop the enthusiasm though. The S&P is only off 400 +/- from its previous all-time high and it broke 3000 for most of the day today. The rally lost steam in the last half hour as investors took their profits before closing at just under 3000.
I bought some energy sector stock today. Baker Hughes. The projected high is $29/share and it's currently trading at $15. Realistically, does anyone believe that oil prices won't go back up and the oil industry won't go back to work as the economy opens and more people spark a demand for oil even while OPEC cuts production? We have wells that have been shuttered and are sitting idle. When demand picks up, those wells will be restarted again. The companies that do that are Baker Hughes, Schlumberger, and Halliburton.
Even if it takes 2 years to reach its peak value, I can wait that long for 25% ROI per year. It beats the HELL out of .0001% in a passbook savings acct or 1.9% in a CD or US Treasuries.
The S&P at 3000 and the DOW over 24000 after falling to 18000 in February tells me I'm not alone in my optimism either. Roubini is wrong and so are those who say the same.
How can he be proven wrong yet?
His outlook is for the next decade. You are using a day on the stock market to debunk his prediction?.
Surely you do understand that economies and stock markets, while intertwined are not the same thing, right? Lots of people got rich in the 1930's.....lots of people got rich in the period from 2008-2012.
The trouble is most did people did not get rich in the 1930's, or in the period from 2008-2012 in fact many struggled to just hold their own...
HisArpy
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In order for his projection to be correct, the market would have to be recovering differently.
It is not.
Thus, the projections are modeled on something that has already not come to pass.
Further, like most who try to emulate Nostradamus, his models are so vague that the normal cycle of the market could be used to "validate" them. However, if yo look at the market, the general trend is ALWAYS up.
After 1929, the NYSE changed its math formula AND which companies they included in the calculations several times. This resulted in a different market valuation from what existed preceding the crash. Thus, the post crash graphs are not a valid indicator of what the recovery would have been had the formula and makeup not been changed.
I saw some graphs once when I was in high school that showed that had the DOW been computed after the crash like it was computed before the crash, the recovery graph would look like every other recovery - a "check mark". I've never seen those graphs since even though I've looked for them so I cannot support that statement as anything other than hearsay.
It is, however believable hearsay because the change in formula and the ensuing results are well documented.
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