Northern Ireland unification with the Republic?

[pecksniff]

Polls on both sides favor it now.

Voters in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland see themselves united as one country in the next 10 years, according to polls conducted on both sides of the border.

South of the border, 62% of people favor Irish unity, though the majority view it as a long-term project rather than an immediate priority, according to a poll for the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI. The most popular timeline for a referendum was “in the next 10 years.”

A separate poll by Lord Ashcroft in Northern Ireland showed a majority think there should be a border poll some time in the future. If a referendum were held in 10 years time, two thirds thought it would see a vote in favor of a united Ireland.

The U.K. has retained control of the six provinces of Northern Ireland since the southern part of the island won independence a century ago, but set out the terms on which reunification could take place in the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Referendums would need to be held on both sides of the border. Only the U.K. can call a ballot in the north, and it is obliged to do so if it seems likely that voters would choose reunification.

 

[oggbashan]

If they do, the UVF will re-start their own campaign of terror...

Sin Fein may be the largest party in Stormont, but the overall desire for unification with Southern Ireland does NOT have a majority. It might be 40% at best. There are parties that want nothing to do with Sinn Fein or the various Unionists. They just want peace and an end to the bickering.

 

[pecksniff]

Correct me if I'm wrong: AIUI, the Catholics and Protestants in Ireland do not fight over which version of Christianity God prefers. They fight because the Catholics are descended from the original Celtic Irish, and the Protestants are descended from English and Scottish settlers who were sent to Ireland for the express purpose of dominating and marginalizing the Celts. The conflict is not so much religious as tribal.

 

[oggbashan]

In theory - true. In practice, it is nominally Catholic against nominally Protestant. I say 'nominally' because Church leaders on both sides preach against violence.

The reality is that Northern Ireland was set up because the 'Protestant/Unionist majority' did not want to be part of an Ireland that was heavily influenced by the Catholic Church (and was until very recently). The Unionists behaved very badly towards Catholics in Northern Ireland for decades, denying them employment, housing etc.

That is changing as people get fed up with either or and turn to parties that are neither Sinn Fein nor Unionist. But the Unionists are split between the hardliners and the pragmatists. That has allowed Sinn Fein to become the largest party as they have exploited a split in the Unionist vote for the first time since Ulster was established.

 

[pecksniff]

But the Unionists are split between the hardliners and the pragmatists.

How exactly do they differ?

 

[LdyHoneybee]

Polls on both sides favor it now.

That would be WONDERFUL!!!

 

[LdyHoneybee]

That would be WONDERFUL!!!

I am not IN Ireland but I am one of many in the US with Irish heritage. I cede to those with greater experience with the situation there. But i think it is kind of an economic mess right now, isn’t it, with half the island still in the EU and the other half not.

 

[pecksniff]

"In the end, it is a matter of nationality. The Celts have brought nothing to Ireland but trouble and disorder. Any Irishman who has turned out to be successful has in no case I know of been of true Celtic origin."

-- Edward Carson

That was from the turn of the 20th Century. How many Ulster Prots, I wonder, still hold with that form of intra-white racism?

 

[ishtat]

60% of Northern Ireland's GDP depends on subsidies from London. Dublin cannot afford that additional debt. Half of Northern Ireland does not want re-unification. Southern Ireland is not keen because of the cost. The quick way to create a United Ireland would be to give the English a vote - they would be easily persuaded to boot them out. The English could then put the sovereignty change through with a big loan to Dublin to underwrite it. The Irish could then resume their traditional position of constitutional independence but with financial vassalage (to London)

 

[oggbashan]

How exactly do they differ?

The Democratic Unionists are generally prepared to work with Sinn Fein in political dialogue (not at present because of their opposition to the EU border in the Irish Sea).

The other Unionists are far more militant and see Sein Fein as still the arm of the IRA (or continuing IRA) that is still bombing Northern Ireland. They want the EU border completely abolished and will not participate in any discussions until it is.

As far as Unification is concerned, both Unionist parties are strongly against it. The people who voted for Sinn Fein and the other non-aligned parties might consider it but the polls show no more than 40% in favour across the board. That means there is a long way to go before a referendum could be held. Even it is passed, the Unionists would NEVER accept it.

 

[pecksniff]

Certainly Irish in the Republic would favor reunification. But my mother went to Ireland once, and she told me most people just don't think about it that much, they don't care if they never get the North back. They're making do well enough with the part of the island they have.

 

[ishtat]

Certainly Irish in the Republic would favor reunification.

Wrong Pecksmith. It appeals to the republic emotionally, but very definitely, not financially. Take London's support of the NI economy away and the whole island would be broke.

 

[Biggs_Darklighter]

People don't give the Irish enough credit. Making a bomb when you're drunk off your ass is not easy.

 

[pecksniff]

Wrong Pecksmith. It appeals to the republic emotionally, but very definitely, not financially. Take London's support of the NI economy away and the whole island would be broke.

How does London support the NI economy?

 

[oggbashan]

How does London support the NI economy?

With shedloads of money.

 

[tallladiesman]

Reunification is coming. It will be here in 10 years for two main reasons. The vast majority in Ireland want it and the vast majority in the UK want it.
Unionists will have a hissy fit but as soon as the British secret services cut off the funding to loyalist paramilitaries that will be the end of them and they will revert to what they are, just another gang of drug dealers.

 

[mayfly13]

Correct me if I'm wrong: AIUI, the Catholics and Protestants in Ireland do not fight over which version of Christianity God prefers. They fight because the Catholics are descended from the original Celtic Irish, and the Protestants are descended from English and Scottish settlers who were sent to Ireland for the express purpose of dominating and marginalizing the Celts. The conflict is not so much religious as tribal.

Interesting.....

Your post reminds me of:
1. The Tudors (as in Rhys Meyer&) 'created' in a sense protestantism, so that by splitting from Catholics Tudor and aristocracy could taken laypeople's taxes, not the Church.
2. Protestantism (calvinism in particular) have been criticised as being the forerunner of the cut-throat individualistic self-monitoring culture of Britain & early American settlers, things that have revived under the ideology of beoliberalism.

In this sense, they are fighting not just an ethnic or admin. conquest, but a colonising ideology as well.



gosh, some of your posts such as these are fantastic, thanks. peck.

 

[mayfly13]

I mean that's how the India teabag traders managed to control India for so long too.
Ideological colonization of those from the top.
Indian immigrants here are more old-school British in their thinking than current British immigrants.

 

[ishtat]

With shedloads of money.

32% of all jobs in NI are in the civil service (Public service). At least half those jobs would be lost on reunification. For comparison about 14.5% of jobs in USA and UK are in the Public Service. In addition, the UK government pays 11 Billion Pounds annually in subsidies not paid to other regions.

This is why political independence could be an economic disaster for Ireland. BUT the UK government would almost certainly be willing to make substantial loans to Dublin to ameliorate that problem. Thus Dublin's political sovereignty would be achieved with the UK's financial boot on Ireland's neck. The EU might help the Irish but for every Euro advanced, London could reduce their commitment.

I think that Ireland will gain political reunification, but at the price of civil mayhem and murder for a year or two; followed by a long and certain slide into financial dependence on London.

 

[Wrong Element]

Correct me if I'm wrong: AIUI, the Catholics and Protestants in Ireland do not fight over which version of Christianity God prefers. They fight because the Catholics are descended from the original Celtic Irish, and the Protestants are descended from English and Scottish settlers who were sent to Ireland for the express purpose of dominating and marginalizing the Celts. The conflict is not so much religious as tribal.

National identity in Northern Ireland is a fairly complicated topic. Pretty much all Protestants (especially the ones descended from the colonizers) and even quite a few Catholics think of themselves as British exclusively. This is going to be a problem with potential reunification. By contrast, the people of East Germany never thought they were anything but German.

This probably wouldn't even be on the radar right now but for Brexit, which was extremely unpopular in both Northern Ireland and Scotland.

 

[pecksniff]

The Orange and the Green should just settle all this once and for all the Irish way, with a drinking contest.

 

[jbeardo1]

One other thing that people can sometimes fail to think about is that for a re unification of ireland cant come about as a win lose. Or re conquering paradigm. the nation state of" southern ireland" i.e. the republic of ireland and northern ireland and may very well have to cease to exist for a new ireland to work

New flag. New anthems. New educational and health system etc. To ensure that all citizens customs and tradition haveca place.

 

[Dribble]

One other thing that people can sometimes fail to think about is that for a re unification of ireland cant come about as a win lose. Or re conquering paradigm. the nation state of" southern ireland" i.e. the republic of ireland and northern ireland and may very well have to cease to exist for a new ireland to work

New flag. New anthems. New educational and health system etc. To ensure that all citizens customs and tradition haveca place.

You have 2 countries the size of New Jersey...And they can't get along? Argue for your limitations and so they shall be yours

 

[SubzeroGirl]

I’d love to see all the leprechauns and munchkins work out their differences.

 

[LLCox]

Run out of bullets?