No, America is not going to have a civil war

[pecksniff]

When the Southern states seceded from the Union, they were still states -- organized, functioning political entities with taxing authority, in a position to form and fund a real army, with real professional officers and hundreds of thousands of enlisted men, an army capable of putting up a serious fight against the United States Army for four years.

But the present political divide in America is not between states, it is within states -- between traditionalist and all-white rural areas and cosmopolitan and diverse urban areas. You can't make a civil war out of that, only a culture war in the suburbs and exurbs. If every private militia club and "patriot" organization in the country were to gather in one place and join forces under unified command, they would not last ten minutes against any state's National Guard. They couldn't even handle a local police force, not with all the military equipment the DOD has for some reason been giving the local police over the past decade.

The only way we can have a civil war is if the Armed Forces themselves divide, with some generals supporting one faction and others another. Which will not happen. All our officers swear loyalty to the Constitution and are thoroughly indoctrinated in the principle of military subordination to civil government.

The worst thing we can reasonably expect is pointless and ineffectual terrorism, like in the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

The leading indicators will be:

- A schism in the Catholic Church when the Americans splinter off and no longer recognize the Pope
- Roe v Wade being overturned and States being allowed to make choices over a private citizen's body and health
- Federal Voter suppression laws
- Private and State sponsored paramilitary and legal groups formed to enforce the voter suppression and laws governing a private citizen's body and health

And yes, that will precipitate a crisis in the military between those that will follow unlawful orders and those that will not.

These events are already in their formative stages.

 

[pecksniff]

The leading indicators will be:

- A schism in the Catholic Church when the Americans splinter off and no longer recognize the Pope
- Roe v Wade being overturned and States being allowed to make choices over a private citizen's body and health
- Federal Voter suppression laws
- Private and State sponsored paramilitary and legal groups formed to enforce the voter suppression and laws governing a private citizen's body and health

And yes, that will precipitate a crisis in the military between those that will follow unlawful orders and those that will not.

These events are already in their formative stages.

What makes you think any of that can happen? We are certainly not going to have a civil war over abortion, nor over a schism in the Catholic Church. And not even the reddest state would sanction a poll-watching militia.

 

[Rightguide]

When the Southern states seceded from the Union, they were still states -- organized, functioning political entities with taxing authority, in a position to form and fund a real army, with real professional officers and hundreds of thousands of enlisted men, an army capable of putting up a serious fight against the United States Army for four years.

But the present political divide in America is not between states, it is within states -- between traditionalist and all-white rural areas and cosmopolitan and diverse urban areas. You can't make a civil war out of that, only a culture war in the suburbs and exurbs. If every private militia club and "patriot" organization in the country were to gather in one place and join forces under unified command, they would not last ten minutes against any state's National Guard. They couldn't even handle a local police force, not with all the military equipment the DOD has for some reason been giving the local police over the past decade.

The only way we can have a civil war is if the Armed Forces themselves divide, with some generals supporting one faction and others another. Which will not happen. All our officers swear loyalty to the Constitution and are thoroughly indoctrinated in the principle of military subordination to civil government.

The worst thing we can reasonably expect is pointless and ineffectual terrorism, like in the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland.

Or, the federal government in DC becomes so radicalized that red states rebel, withdraw their representatives in Congress, refuse to pay taxes, and form a federation of their own. That ought to start one.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

What makes you think any of that can happen? We are certainly not going to have a civil war over abortion, nor over a schism in the Catholic Church. And not even the reddest state would sanction a poll-watching militia.

Hre is a good read for you It Can't Happen Here

 

[pecksniff]

Or, the federal government in DC becomes so radicalized that red states rebel, withdraw their representatives in Congress, refuse to pay taxes, and form a federation of their own. That ought to start one.

That won't happen either. None of the red states are politically homogenous enough. The political divide is within states.

 

[Rightguide]

That won't happen either. None of the red states are politically homogenous enough. The political divide is within states.

Texas is, but I'm not saying they will. There's no denying that several states are in the process of rebelling against policies in DC as we speak.

 

[Lazaran]

.
RotGut thinks the populace of Texas is politically homogenous.

What a fucking dunce.

 

[pecksniff]

Hre is a good read for you It Can't Happen Here

I've read it. Very good book. But we've already had the closest thing possible to a real-life manifestation of that story, and Trump is gone now.

 

[pecksniff]

.
RotGut thinks the populace of Texas is politically homogenous.

What a fucking dunce.

Actually, from what I've read, it is not out of the question that Texas will go blue in a few more election cycles. This is after all a state with several highly cosmopolitan metro areas.

 

[pecksniff]

Texas is, but I'm not saying they will. There's no denying that several states are in the process of rebelling against policies in DC as we speak.

Their "rebellion" is not much more than politics-as-usual, and not likely to be. That silly and pointless recount flap in Arizona is as bad as it gets.

 

[KeithD]

All our officers swear loyalty to the Constitution and are thoroughly indoctrinated in the principle of military subordination to civil government.

I agree with all but this. The military is riddled with Trumpers. So far they've been repressed and the military is hanging tough with the Constitution, but that's not an "all our officers" thing.

 

[pecksniff]

I agree with all but this. The military is riddled with Trumpers. So far they've been repressed and the military is hanging tough with the Constitution, but that's not an "all our officers" thing.

I'm sure we would have heard a lot about it by now, if political dissent in the ranks were anything close to presenting the possibility of mutiny or civil war or a military coup.

 

[Soshameless11]

When the Southern states seceded from the Union, they were still states -- organized, functioning political entities with taxing authority, in a position to form and fund a real army, with real professional officers and hundreds of thousands of enlisted men, an army capable of putting up a serious fight against the United States Army for four years.

But the present political divide in America is not between states, it is within states -- between traditionalist and all-white rural areas and cosmopolitan and diverse urban areas. You can't make a civil war out of that, only a culture war in the suburbs and exurbs. If every private militia club and "patriot" organization in the country were to gather in one place and join forces under unified command, they would not last ten minutes against any state's National Guard. They couldn't even handle a local police force, not with all the military equipment the DOD has for some reason been giving the local police over the past decade.

The only way we can have a civil war is if the Armed Forces themselves divide, with some generals supporting one faction and others another. Which will not happen. All our officers swear loyalty to the Constitution and are thoroughly indoctrinated in the principle of military subordination to civil government.

The worst thing we can reasonably expect is pointless and ineffectual terrorism, like in the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland.

This was a pretty entertaining and thought provoking podcast I came across a while back. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/it-could-happen-here/id1449762156

 

[Rightguide]

Their "rebellion" is not much more than politics-as-usual, and not likely to be. That silly and pointless recount flap in Arizona is as bad as it gets.

I'm talking about the number of state lawsuits filed in federal court against Biden policies.

 

[pecksniff]

I'm talking about the number of state lawsuits filed in federal court against Biden policies.

You can't make a civil war out of that, either, no matter how the cases turn out.

 

[KeithD]

I'm sure we would have heard a lot about it by now, if political dissent in the ranks were anything close to presenting the possibility of mutiny or civil war or a military coup.

You think Michael Flynn doesn't have a following in the military? Think again.

And, I have heard a lot about it. I'm a military brat and a graduate of the U.S. Army War College. Who are you listening to in the military?

 

[pecksniff]

You think Michael Flynn doesn't have a following in the military? Think again.

Yes, I think Michael Flynn doesn't have a following in the military -- at least, not enough of one to matter. None of the Joint Chiefs are going to regard his calls for a Myanmar-style coup with anything but contempt and dismission.

And, I have heard a lot about it. I'm a military brat and a graduate of the U.S. Army War College. Who are you listening to in the military?

Who are you listening to in the military, who is seriously discussing a coup?

 

[Rightguide]

You can't make a civil war out of that, either, no matter how the cases turn out.

Before an inferno there's a spark, it takes a little time to happen. Somebody has to fan the flames and we all know the media is doing that right now. I'm ot worried, if it happens it won't be where I'm at.

 

[pecksniff]

Before an inferno there's a spark, it takes a little time to happen. Somebody has to fan the flames and we all know the media is doing that right now.

That's how the Bolsheviks thought -- the title of their paper Iskra means "Spark" -- Lenin did not regard Russia as important in the general scheme of things, we was convinced all Europe was on the verge of revolution and only needed a spark to set it off -- but it didn't work out that way. And it won't work out that way here. Not enough Americans want a civil war. Those who do want it are hypnotized by the RW echo chamber into thinking everybody does.

 

[KeithD]

Y at least, not enough of one to matter.

You've changed the goal posts. You originally specified "all officers." That's simply not true.

 

[pecksniff]

But the present political divide in America is not between states, it is within states -- between traditionalist and all-white rural areas and cosmopolitan and diverse urban areas

On that note: Historically, when a political divide comes down to the city vs. the countryside, the city usually wins, and almost always deserves to win. Marx was not talking out his ass when he wrote of "the idiocy of rural life."

 

[pecksniff]

You've changed the goal posts. You originally specified "all officers." That's simply not true.

It is true that all officers do swear that oath to the Constitution and are indoctrinated in subordination to civil government. My Dad was an Air Force officer, so I know that much.

Eisenhower wouldn't even vote while he wore the uniform -- his view was that soldiers should not participate in politics at all.

 

[Rightguide]

That's how the Bolsheviks thought -- the title of their paper Iskra means "Spark" -- Lenin did not regard Russia as important in the general scheme of things, we was convinced all Europe was on the verge of revolution and only needed a spark to set it off -- but it didn't work out that way. And it won't work out that way here. Not enough Americans want a civil war. Those who do want it are hypnotized by the RW echo chamber into thinking everybody does.

Modern day Bolsheviks are doing the same to spark a civil war right now against the white majority. That's what CRT is all about, that's what the woke military efforts against white males is all about, that's what the feminization of male children is all about, that's what the Democrats, Joe Biden, and big Tech, are all about.

 

[pecksniff]

Modern day Bolsheviks are doing the same to spark a civil war right now against the white majority.

That can't happen either. Even among the most disadvantaged of POC, there is no consensus for revolution. BLM and Antifa are not revolutionary, only angry. The American left (I mean the real-thing socialist left, not the social-democratic left-progressive Bernie bros) is actually incredibly quiescent lately, to the extent it even still exists.

. . . the feminization of male children . . .

What on Earth are you talking about?!

. . . and big Tech . . .

And what have they got to do with anything?! If Silicon Valley has any dissident political leaning, it is in an economic-libertarian direction.