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Named storm #9 - Ivan

linuxgeek

linuxgeek

Rogue Scholar
Joined
Feb 1, 2004
Posts
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I was hoping it wouldn't be named until Frances ran her course. No such luck. So I'm getting this thread stared even though he is current 5 days from being a threat to any land mass. With luck, he'll follow Earl's example and break apart and just give Mexico some rain.

I will be following the same pattern as with Frances; all maps and images will be put in the first post as I find them.

Tropical Depression/Storm & Hurricane FAQ

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/091538W5.gif

http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/atl.latest.gif

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/current/curwx_600x405.jpg

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/tropical.gif

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/upload/9/windfield.gif

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409_model.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p20-r/SI.klch/latest.gif

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p20-r/SI.khgx/latest.gif

NOAA Atlantic prediction maps. These are just too big to throw at someone unexpectly, so I'm only posting links to them.

Atlantic analysis: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_sfcbw.gif

Forecasts
500mb:
24h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hr500bw.gif
48h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hr500bw.gif
96h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif

Surface:
24h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrbw.gif
48h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif
96h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif
 
Last edited:
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3

000
WTNT34 KNHC 030835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

...IVAN FORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...NINTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2004 SEASON...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES... 985 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...10.0 N... 30.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN
 
ANOTHER one???

Who is filling this dance card? Damn.
 
Global Warming or the Second Coming??? WTF???
 
Cheyenne said:
ANOTHER one???

Who is filling this dance card? Damn.
Click to expand...
It's that damn linuxgeek, he's trying to divert attention from the policital rhetoric, and he can't come up with anything better than major natural disasters.

Slow the fuck down, bucko! We're not done evacuating for Frances just yet, so you can back the goddamned thing off and just wait like a good boy. You are out of fucking control, kid, and it's not good. Not good, I say, to careen down this distracting, destructive course you've chosen.

Now, hit the ESCape button, choose pause (or better yet, delete) and let us get on with coping with what we have running head-on toward Florida, ya dig? You have a very nice 'puter. It would be a real shjame if something untimely were to happen to it. A real shame.

*nods*
 
You don't really need to call it #9. The names are in consecutive alphabetical order.
 
Hurricane names for
2004

Alex
Bonnie
Charley
Danielle
Earl
Frances
Gaston
Hermine
Ivan
Jeanne
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
 
Hurricane names for
2005

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma
 
phrodeau said:
You don't really need to call it #9. The names are in consecutive alphabetical order.
Click to expand...

well, the brain is running a bit fuzzy at the moment, but the last I checked they don't use all 26 letters ... blah, blah, blah. stop poking at me. do not taunt happy fun geek. :p
 
freakygurl said:
Hurricane names for
2005

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma
Click to expand...

That leaves Lit names for 2006 :D
 
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070243
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

..DANGEROUS IVAN MAINTAINS INTENSITY...NEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. THIS CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON
 
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070305
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

AN EVALUATION OF THE DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SUGGESTS THAT IVAN HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. DROPSONDES THROUGHOUT THE MISSION HAVE SHOWN A MODEST DROP IN PRESSURE FROM 969 MB TO 963 MB. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 106 KT...CORRESPONDING TO A SURFACE WIND OF 85 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT TO 90 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PROVIDED A FIX TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE SOON...AS UNIVERSALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE IN PART TO A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING IVAN WELL SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENNINSULA. NOGAPS AND THE GFDL BRING IVAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS LINE WITH THE CLOSELY PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS.

A NOAA JET IN IVAN THIS EVENING HAS FOUND THE EXISTENCE OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. THIS MAY HELP EXPLAIN THE WEAKENING OF IVAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS IVAN AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR LAND AREAS...THE INTENSITY OF IVAN IN THE LATER PERIODS ARE MAINTAINED.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 11.2N 57.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 11.8N 59.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 12.7N 62.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 13.7N 66.1W 105 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 14.7N 69.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 17.2N 74.3W 115 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 78.7W 115 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 82.4W 115 KT
 
Oy, another weekend, another hurricane. At this rate they will run out of names before the season is over.

Gotta hope this one doesn't come to FL for a few reasons.
  • Practically every place certified to be a shelter has been damaged by the last Charley & Frances
  • All the people who are part of disaster services are burned out or will be really soon
  • One more of these fuckers, and I'm separating the peninsula from the US and naming it Disaster Land
  • How is George II suppose to fund his war if he has to keep cleaning up his brother's state
  • two words ---- cluster fuck
 
linuxgeek said:
Oy, another weekend, another hurricane. At this rate they will run out of names before the season is over.

Gotta hope this one doesn't come to FL for a few reasons.
  • Practically every place certified to be a shelter has been damaged by the last Charley & Frances
  • All the people who are part of disaster services are burned out or will be really soon
  • One more of these fuckers, and I'm separating the peninsula from the US and naming it Disaster Land
  • How is George II suppose to fund his war if he has to keep cleaning up his brother's state
  • two words ---- cluster fuck
Click to expand...

Oh come now. Deep down inside, you're there for the sun.
 
RosevilleCAguy said:
Oh come now. Deep down inside, you're there for the sun.
Click to expand...

Not this glowing computer deskjocky. What tan I have is on my forearms and face.
 
Ivan is starting to look like he is following something similar to Charley's path. We have another front coming down which will probably stall in about the same place as the one 3 weeks ago.
 
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 21

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071451
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NEARING TOBAGO...WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH IN BARBADOS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE... AND ST. LUCIA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...NORTHEAST OF TOBAGO.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.8 N... 60.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

000
WTNT44 KNHC 071455
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 963 MB AND THE PEAK WIND AT FLIGHT LEVEL WAS 116 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CURRENTLY...THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT A LARGE-UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAY INDUCE SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN THAT SHOWS A 20-KNOT SOUTHERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH COULD HALT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ULTIMATELY MOVE THE UPPER-LOW WESTWARD LEAVING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IVAN IS A POWERFUL HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN FIVE DAYS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS SOUTH A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS STEERING THE HURRICANE WESTWARD. IN TIME...A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOW FAR NORTH THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY OF TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS VARIES WITH MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 11.8N 60.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 12.3N 62.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 13.0N 65.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 14.0N 68.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 80.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 22.0N 83.0W 120 KT
 
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