Man, can I call it or can I fucking call it

Le Jacquelope

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I said years ago that homes were unaffordable. I said over a year ago that this subprime shit was gonna get ugly. I said less than a year ago that there was cause for panic.

Now Goldman Sachs agrees with me, and goes even further to say that we're in danger of a recession.

I shoulda been running the Fed, we'd have been preparing for this a year ago. Hell, I should have been in charge of those banks, those subprime mortgages would have been more restricted back in 2004. If it weren't for the legions of new homes coming up with builder's restrictions against speculating, woah. What a bigger mess we'd be in.

Obligatory greets to REDWAVE, who opposed runaway capitalism to the bitter end. RIP, ya atheist fool. I'm at the office having an ice cold O'Doul's for you - just in case. :devil:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080116/fed_economy.html?printer=1

Somber Fed Says Economy Has Lost Punch
Wednesday January 16, 5:33 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Federal Reserve Says US Economy Has Lost Momentum; Recession Fears Persist

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Retailers, home builders and many manufacturers should brace for even more rough times ahead, a somber Federal Reserve suggested Wednesday amid growing fears that the U.S. might be sliding into recession.

The Fed's snapshot of business conditions showed a national economy losing momentum heading into the new year and a future riddled with uncertainty. The persistent housing slump and harder-to-get credit are making people and businesses ever more cautious, it said.

Separately on Wednesday, more big banks reported losses and said people were having trouble making payments for everything from credit cards to cars. Stocks were mostly down for the day, the Dow Jones industrial average declining 34.95 points, or 0.28 percent.

The Fed report was the unwelcome icing on a recent batch of economic indicators -- ranging from a plunge in retail sales to a big jump in unemployment -- raising concern that the country is heading for its first recession since 2001.

At the beginning of last year, many economists put the chance of a recession at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number say 50-50 or even worse. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street, thinks a recession is inevitable this year.

The Fed report said the economy did grow during the survey period -- from the middle of November through December -- but more slowly than during the late fall. Credit problems intensified in December as did troubles in the housing market. That threw Wall Street into new turbulence.

The economy probably grew at a feeble pace of about 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year and will stay weak in the first quarter of this year as consumers -- major shapers of the nation's economic health -- tighten their belts.

After retailers suffered their worst sales season in five years in 2007, "the outlook for 2008 among retail merchants was cautious," the Fed said in its report. And the outlook for housing remains gloomy: "weak during the first part of 2008."

Fallout from a meltdown in risky "subprime" mortgages continued to sock financial institutions. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo Inc. both reported Wednesday that their earnings fell -- raising fresh fears of a widespread lending crisis.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a speech last week, pledged to aggressively cut a key interest rate as needed to try to prevent all these problems from plunging the economy into a major recession. That may well mean a bold half-point cut at the end of a two-day meeting on Jan. 30. The Fed started cutting rates in September, but some critics on Wall Street and elsewhere say Bernanke should have acted sooner and more forcefully.

"Clearly there is a high level of caution," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "Everyone's guard is up to protect and insulate one's businesses from the high degree of sluggishness that is expected to prevail in the months ahead."

With voters expressing angst over the economy, the White House and the Democrat-controlled Congress are exploring ways -- including the possibility of temporary tax rebates -- to get money quickly into the hands of consumers and help stimulate spending. Presidential contenders also are floating their own ideas for rescue packages.

The chairman of Congress' Joint Economic Committee said he had spoken Monday with Bernanke and found him "generally supportive" of lawmakers and Bush approving a stimulus bill.

Bernanke, who hasn't supported any specific plan, testifies before the House Budget Committee Thursday.

The recent leap in the nation's unemployment rate, from 4.7 percent in November to 5 percent in December, rang one of the loudest warning bells. It raised concerns that consumers would clamp down, sending the economy into a tailspin.

On Wednesday, the Fed observed that "holiday sales were generally disappointing" and pointed to "further weakness in auto sales."

A day earlier, the government reported that shoppers cut back on their spending by 0.4 percent in December, wrapping up the weakest year for retailers since 2002.

Adding to worry about how consumers will hold up: Consumer confidence, as measured by the RBC Cash Index, fell in January to its lowest point in figures dating back to 2002.

The housing picture remains bleak -- "quite weak" in all Fed regions, the survey said. Sales continued to be sluggish, and inventories of unsold homes "persisted at historically high levels."

Manufacturing activity varied around the country, but there was one common thread: Factories reported "pronounced weakness" in housing-related industries as well as the automobile business. The Fed, in a separate report Wednesday, said production by big industry was flat in December, fresh evidence of an economic slowdown.

Mayland was more graphic. "Manufacturers have gotten cold feet," he said.

Businesses are having to cope with high costs for energy and food, too. That's squeezing profit margins for companies and boosting prices to some customers.

Consumer prices moderated in December, rising by 0.3 percent, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. For all of 2007, prices jumped 4.1 percent, the biggest increase in 17 years.
 
I'm happy to forward your CV to Abby Joseph Cohen. While GS has done very well in the current market environment, I'm certain they'd like to turbo-charge their performance by bringing your prognostication powers aboard.
 
Steve (REDWAVE) always said that there was hope for you, LT. Both he & I foresaw the housing market meltdown when the ARM's became such a hot item.
 
Nostradamus this, bitch

I'm happy to forward your CV to Abby Joseph Cohen. While GS has done very well in the current market environment, I'm certain they'd like to turbo-charge their performance by bringing your prognostication powers aboard.
People got rich off the Great Depression, dude.

So what if GS is doing well?

We're talking about how this will affect the majority of Americans - you know, those peons you like to pretend you haven't rubbed elbows with in, like, forever...
 
Steve (REDWAVE) always said that there was hope for you, LT. Both he & I foresaw the housing market meltdown when the ARM's became such a hot item.
Ayup. Did ya warn people to cut off their ARMs?

Better to go home missing an arm than go into foreclosure with both arms and feet. :)
 
People got rich off the Great Depression, dude.

So what if GS is doing well?

We're talking about how this will affect the majority of Americans - you know, those peons you like to pretend you haven't rubbed elbows with in, like, forever...

I thought we were discussing your crystal ball, Nostradamus. ;)
 
I still say this is just a normal market correction:
 
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It was the banks that stretched their imaginations and thought of some of these pipe dreams to sell couples the dream of a home.


I'm glad some major real estate markets got "realigned" with the over-valuation of the real estate, but I don't like how it sucked in so many hard working people.

I refinanced in a low fixed rate when all the people calling me stupid are scrambling now to figure out what they're going to do for the next 6 months as a foreclosure looms.
 
It was the banks that stretched their imaginations and thought of some of these pipe dreams to sell couples the dream of a home.


I'm glad some major real estate markets got "realigned" with the over-valuation of the real estate, but I don't like how it sucked in so many hard working people.

I refinanced in a low fixed rate when all the people calling me stupid are scrambling now to figure out what they're going to do for the next 6 months as a foreclosure looms.

I did pretty much the same thing. I had a sub-prime ARM and refinanced to a low rate (5.9%) fixed rate 20 year loan just before the current troubles started.

Many of my "Smart friends" are scrambling to refinance now or face doubled and in some cases tripled payments. They laughed when I told them I refinanced and went for a fixed 20 year loan. I'm the one laughing now.
 
The Fed report said the economy did grow during the survey period -- from the middle of November through December -- but more slowly than during the late fall. Credit problems intensified in December as did troubles in the housing market. That threw Wall Street into new turbulence.

The economy probably grew at a feeble pace of about 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year and will stay weak in the first quarter of this year as consumers -- major shapers of the nation's economic health -- tighten their belts.
Ohmygosh, the economy is just barely growing! Time to panic!
 
It was the banks that stretched their imaginations and thought of some of these pipe dreams to sell couples the dream of a home.


I'm glad some major real estate markets got "realigned" with the over-valuation of the real estate, but I don't like how it sucked in so many hard working people.

I refinanced in a low fixed rate when all the people calling me stupid are scrambling now to figure out what they're going to do for the next 6 months as a foreclosure looms.
Remember the heady days of unexercised dotcom stock options listed on V.O.D.'s for home loan collateral? I liked to say back then, "you mess with V.O.D.ou and you will get zombified."

It made sense to absolutely NO ONE back then. It made all the sense in the universe to everyone afterwards, though. Especially after people lost their homes and cars and then Uncle Sam came by to kick them in the teeth with his AMT jackboots while they were down.

Any ideas on what the next big thing in financial stupidity will be? My crystal ball is busy having a schadenfreudal orgasm right now.
 
Any ideas on what the next big thing in financial stupidity will be? My crystal ball is busy having a schadenfreudal orgasm right now.


IMHO it happened today.

Many foreign investors dumped BILLIONS buying up our bank stocks. I see a gloomy future. I believe the anxiety will settle down, but regardless of who the President is coming up, I'm very leery of foreign investors who are notorious for expecting quick and rich dividends. Investors need to read their proxy statements and voting ballots VERY carefully for the next couple of years.

I believe the banking problem should be sucked up by the banks. I believe that many banks acted in bad faith and should write down the loans to the amount (dollar not APR) and prevent foreclosure. If the banks step up and be the hero by honoring a fixed amount.
 
IMHO it happened today.

Many foreign investors dumped BILLIONS buying up our bank stocks. I see a gloomy future. I believe the anxiety will settle down, but regardless of who the President is coming up, I'm very leery of foreign investors who are notorious for expecting quick and rich dividends. Investors need to read their proxy statements and voting ballots VERY carefully for the next couple of years.

I believe the banking problem should be sucked up by the banks. I believe that many banks acted in bad faith and should write down the loans to the amount (dollar not APR) and prevent foreclosure. If the banks step up and be the hero by honoring a fixed amount.
Yo, I saw that, too. I was eyeing it at the office all day long. These foreign investors have been nickel and dime'ing our banks with little shit investment portfolios until now.

In the 21st century, if you want to control a foreign country, you grab them by their financial balls.

Japan struck at our fault line and missed. This time Lex Luthor is at bat. (Think: Superman the first movie)
 
IMHO it happened today.

Many foreign investors dumped BILLIONS buying up our bank stocks. I see a gloomy future. I believe the anxiety will settle down, but regardless of who the President is coming up, I'm very leery of foreign investors who are notorious for expecting quick and rich dividends. Investors need to read their proxy statements and voting ballots VERY carefully for the next couple of years.

I believe the banking problem should be sucked up by the banks. I believe that many banks acted in bad faith and should write down the loans to the amount (dollar not APR) and prevent foreclosure. If the banks step up and be the hero by honoring a fixed amount.
I believe that many banks are choosing to do just that.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1664773620080116
 
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