LITEROTICA PODCAST
LIT CAMS (200 Free Tokens)ADULT TOYSVOD MOVIES

Just the Polls

BabyBoomer50s said:
Link isn’t working. Edited post to include screenshot.
Click to expand...
Ohhh, you having troubles with the new platform like hecan’thelp? He always has issues.

Or you got so excited to see the numbers you couldn’t be bothered to take the time to ensure it’s working?

Keep owning those libs, your ancestors did quite a bit of it wearing those red arm bands.

And 2020 odds? Feeling okay?? That contest is over.
 
BabyBoomer50s said:
Betting odds, aka money polls. RCP average. Trump opens largest lead of the campaign at 52% as Biden slips to 33%.
Click to expand...
yet in the RCP poll, Trump's only up .8%. Betting and polling are two very different animals. People gamble on the underdog.
 
dkovic77 said:
Ohhh, you having troubles with the new platform like hecan’thelp? He always has issues.

Or you got so excited to see the numbers you couldn’t be bothered to take the time to ensure it’s working?

Keep owning those libs, your ancestors did quite a bit of it wearing those red arm bands.

And 2020 odds? Feeling okay?? That contest is over.
Click to expand...
Here you go, since Boomers seemingly incapable.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
 
Fuzzy1975 said:
yet in the RCP poll, Trump's only up .8%. Betting and polling are two very different animals. People gamble on the underdog.
Click to expand...
Yes, opinion polls and betting odds are very different. RCP tracks both. The RCP polling average today has Trump at 42.3%, Biden at 39.9%.
 
Fuzzy1975 said:
Really?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

seems pretty close on the "swing states"
Click to expand...
The difference between the two figures is that one is head to head, the other includes RFK, West and Stein.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...24/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

With regards to battleground states, here are the latest RCP averages (5 way race)

AZ Trump +4.6
Nevada Trump +5.3
Wisconsin Trump +.1
Michigan Trump +.3
Pennsylvania Trump +2.3
North Carolina Trump +5.3
Georgia Trump +4.8
 
BabyBoomer50s said:
AZ (North Star Opinion Research)
Trump +6

https://cdn.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2024/06/AZ-June-Toplines.pdf
Click to expand...
Yup, 600 sample size out of 7+ million. Sure, seems super valid!

We know you like it because of the results… maybe find some in the multiple thousands, get a least one more decimal point closer to the total.

This is why the details matter. Funny how the polling group seems to work with Republican’t campaigns…no red flag there at all.

But you sure do like your red arm band.

So predictable.
 
BabyBoomer50s said:
Nate Silver’s model is out. Spoiler alert: It’s a long, long read.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1806003770414793180
Click to expand...
I really like Nate Silver and his perspective on polling. Very interesting read. This part really hits home on the voter sentiment and I think will be crucial on the outcome.

Thanks for sharing
Yes, the labor market is tight and that’s great for many types of workers. But it’s just kind of BS to imply that voter concerns about the economy reflect misinformation — when throughout Biden’s term, the average American has struggled to see enough gains in her paycheck to keep up with inflation. And if anything, the average conceals a lot of differences in how voters have experienced the economy. (If you’re on some sort of fixed income, inflation has made this a rough few years, for instance.) The manufacturing numbers are also just average, and consumer spending has cooled off a bit. Ironically — given that it’s something Democrats are usually reluctant to talk about — Biden is buoyed in the economic index by the stock market. But overall, the economy is just average.
Click to expand...
 
ll74 said:
I really like Nate Silver and his perspective on polling. Very interesting read. This part really hits home on the voter sentiment and I think will be crucial on the outcome.

Thanks for sharing
Click to expand...
I like him too. In addition to his analytics work, he has an engaging and sometimes humorous writing style. I believe he’s a serious poker player as well.
 
BabyBoomer50s said:
I like him too. In addition to his analytics work, he has an engaging and sometimes humorous writing style. I believe he’s a serious poker player as well.
Click to expand...
Yah, they talk about that on the 538 pod. I expect next week's will focus on this.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

P
Trump demands pollsters be investigated for "election fraud"
Replies
16
Views
494
SluttyTheresa
S
Rightguide
70% Of Americans Think The Democrat Party Is Out Of Touch
2 3 4
Replies
95
Views
1K
HisArpy
HisArpy
JohnEngelman
Donald Trump embarrassed by historic poll figures as he blasts 'cheats'
2 3
Replies
59
Views
1K
eric_erosfan
eric_erosfan
P
Swing state polls
Replies
8
Views
443
rainsol
rainsol
Rightguide
Bad News For John Cornyn
Replies
4
Views
206
RobDownSouth
RobDownSouth
Back
Top