It's the immigration stupid.........

Ishmael

Literotica Guru
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Nov 24, 2001
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Yeah, yeah. Everyone thinks he's a right wing zealot, and on some issues he is. But Pat Buchanan has written a column that's very long on fact and very short on commentary. A little in here for Europeans as well as Americans.

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Pat Buchanan (back to story)

June 3, 2002

It's the immigration, stupid!

"As waves of immigration from the Islamic nations of North Africa and the Mideast, and black nations of sub-Sahara rise, crest and crash into Europe, the immigration issue will become more explosive." So I wrote only months ago in "Death of the West," as I made a prediction: "Major parties will seize the issue from the minor parties, or the minor parties will become the major ones."

Rarely has any prediction of this author's come to pass with such startling speed. Mainstream European parties are today in total panic over the sudden surge of the Populist Right. Not to be left behind, they have begun to echo and ape the Populist Right, even as they denounce it.

"Is Europe preparing to haul up the drawbridge?" asks Jill Lawless of The Associated Press on May 29. "Across the continent, right-wing parties have surged at the polls by exploiting fears of a rising tide of immigrants and refugees -- and mainstream parties are echoing their concerns and their rhetoric." Edmund Stoiber, the conservative
candidate for chancellor of Germany, is making immigration his issue. British Tory Iain Duncan Smith now says of illegal aliens, "Not one ... should be allowed to set foot in Britain." Prime Minister Tony Blair is pirouetting wildly on the immigration question.

Reports The Washington Times: "The government of Tony Blair, unnerved by the political rise of hardline anti-immigration parties at home and across Europe, is considering stiff measures to protect itself politically by cracking down on asylum seekers.

"A policy document leaked to the Guardian ... advocated such measures as mobilizing Royal Navy warships to intercept refugee traffickers in the Mediterranean Sea and the use of Royal Air Force transport planes to carry out mass deportations."

Blair's government is considering making British foreign aid to developing countries contingent on their taking back illegal aliens who had made it into Britain. What has caused our deeply principled Third Way pol Tony Blair to suddenly manifest concern over asylum seekers is the cloud no bigger than a man's hand now hovering over his
prospects for a second term -- the immigration crisis.

Now only was Europe stunned by Jean-Marie Le Pen's defeat of Prime Minister Jospin in the first round of the French elections, weeks later, after the assassination of populist Pim Fortuyn, his party scored a smashing success and entered the Dutch government.

The populist Danish Peoples Party is already in the government, and there are rising tough-on-immigration parties in Belgium and Switzerland, as well as Jorge Haider's Freedom Party in Austria.

What must have jolted Blair is the 20 percent showing by the British National Party in Burnley and other Midland towns ravaged by race violence last summer. Voters moving to the BNP are working-class Brits who are the political base of Tony Blair's New Labor.

"We're not advocating a 'Fortress Europe,'" says Blair, "but what we are saying is there's got to be some order and some rules brought into the system." Standing beside Blair as he made his remarks was the Spanish prime minister, whose country is being invaded from North Africa.

Writes Lawless: "Aided by an international network of people-smugglers, thousands of migrants from countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia try to enter Europe each year. They come by boat, train and truck -- from Africa in overloaded boats across the Strait of Gibraltar to Spain; from Turkey across the Aegean to the Greek islands; over the Adriatic from Albania to Italy.

"In March, a shipload of almost 1,000 Kurds landed in Sicily, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency."

Blair and his trendy friends deny they want a Fortress Europe. But if they do not build one, Europe becomes a Third World continent.

For Europeans are diminishing in numbers so rapidly that 169 million immigrants will be needed by 2050 just to keep Europe's labor force at its present size. If Europe wants to maintain its 5-to-1 ratio of working-age folks (15 to 64) to retirees and elderly (65 and over), Europe must import -- fasten your seat belts! -- 1.4 billion people from Africa and Asia by mid-century.

Blair's crisis today is George Bush's tomorrow. If Karl Rove does not persuade the president to get off his "amnesty-for-illegals" kick, he is risking creation of a single-issue "Defend Our Borders!" party, which could siphon off enough votes to sink Bush in 2004. To paraphrase Carville, of a decade ago, "It's the immigration, stupid!"

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Ishmael
 
Get a grip. He's just trying to sell his book. If he does, he'll run, yet again helping the Democrats.

He needs to shut the fuck up for 2 1/2 years more...
 
SINthysist said:
Get a grip. He's just trying to sell his book. If he does, he'll run, yet again helping the Democrats.

He needs to shut the fuck up for 2 1/2 years more...

Facts are facts SIN. The Europeans have a HUGE problem. It will be interesting to see how they handle it.

Ishmael
 
Ishmael said:
I made a prediction: "Major parties will seize the issue from the minor parties, or the minor parties will become the major ones."

hahahahahahahahaha


*ahem*

yes, it was very brilliant of pat to come up with this totally original idea never seen before in the history of political science.
 
Re: Re: It's the immigration stupid.........

seXieleXie said:


hahahahahahahahaha


*ahem*

yes, it was very brilliant of pat to come up with this totally original idea never seen before in the history of political science.

Didn't read the article for the originality of his predictions. I was fascinated by the facts that he threw out. 1.4 billion immigrants is an awesome number SXX.

The other figure that he used was the 5:1 ratio of workers to pensioners. If, for example, a pensioner recieves a figure of $3000/month from the government in cash and services, each worker must be taxed at the rate of $600/month to suppot one pensioner. This is without any consideration of any other service or duty the government is obligated to provide. That is scary too. (The figure I used is purely hypothetical, but regardless, 20% of all taxes that an individual pays is going to the maintenance of one pensioner.)

Ishmael
 
Ishmael said:


Facts are facts SIN. The Europeans have a HUGE problem. It will be interesting to see how they handle it.

Ishmael

A problem, yes...

But hardly huge.

The UK have had immigration as an issue for so long now with differing peoples the solutions are almost routine. Blunkett, our Home Secretary (Internal Affairs Minister) has just introduced a whole range of immigration controls.

But these controls are only old ones being reinstated after a period of repeal.

The 'surge' in right wing support in Europe over the past few months resulted in no nett gains for the Right in either France or Holland, apart from an initial protest vote (France) and a sympathy vote (Holland).

And already the incumbent Governments are amending their policies.

Immigration policy is a flexible thing. Depending on the needs of the host country at the time.

ppman
 
An aging population.

Again in Europe it has been recognised that controlled immigration is necessary to help counter balance an aging population and the need to provide for them financially.

As Sinthysist says, Buchanan sounds as though he's hyping his book. Nothing wrong with that and if the immigration issue in the States is unkown to most people it can prove to be interesting reading.

ppman
 
p_p_man said:


A problem, yes...

But hardly huge.

The UK have had immigration as an issue for so long now with differing peoples the solutions are almost routine. Blunkett, our Home Secretary (Internal Affairs Minister) has just introduced a whole range of immigration controls.

But these controls are only old ones being reinstated after a period of repeal.

The 'surge' in right wing support in Europe over the past few months resulted in no nett gains for the Right in either France or Holland, apart from an initial protest vote (France) and a sympathy vote (Holland).

And already the incumbent Governments are amending their policies.

Immigration policy is a flexible thing. Depending on the needs of the host country at the time.

ppman

All of your points are well taken pp, but do not address the root problem.

We've been down this road before, you and I. The 'native' population growth and the social programs are at odds with one another. The immigration problem is the symptom, not the disease. I mean for Christs sake, Germany even tried paid incentives for native born Germans to reproduce, perhaps they still are?

It is a fact that as the standard of living increases, birth rates drop off, and this is in conflict with social programs that assume that there will always be more paying into the system than taking out. Hence my comment in another thread that socialism is inherently unstable.

Further, I can't see how the EU can absorb 1.4 billion Africans and Mid-easterners and still retain that quaint European charm. It seems destined that you will loose your identity.

Ishmael
 
Ishmael said:
Further, I can't see how the EU can absorb 1.4 billion Africans and Mid-easterners and still retain that quaint European charm. It seems destined that you will loose your identity.

Ishmael

Whenever I see figures like that on a subject I'm deeply interested in, I always think it wise to do my own calculations.

No point in relying on a man's facts when all he wants to do is sell his book.

ppman
 
p_p_man said:


Whenever I see figures like that on a subject I'm deeply interested in, I always think it wise to do my own calculations.

No point in relying on a man's facts when all he wants to do is sell his book.

ppman

I actually agree with you pp. The root of those numbers is obviously the 5:1 ratio. So that's all you have to really verify. ;) (See, I even help)

Ishmael
 
Are we then assuming that national identity is a fixed, unchangeable thing? Or does the influx of immigrants bring changes to a national identity preventing it from becoming archaic and stagnant?
 
SINthysist said:
Are we then assuming that national identity is a fixed, unchangeable thing? Or does the influx of immigrants bring changes to a national identity preventing it from becoming archaic and stagnant?


Of all people, you Americans should know the answer already.
 
SINthysist said:
Are we then assuming that national identity is a fixed, unchangeable thing? Or does the influx of immigrants bring changes to a national identity preventing it from becoming archaic and stagnant?

I guess that depends on how you look at it SIN.

An influx of a different culture is not such a bad thing in one respect, but in others it can be devastating. The Europeans will have to make up their own mind, but it certainly has become an issue.

Each culture brings with it not only the good parts, but the not so desireable parts too.

The Arabic culture has a very difficult time seperating church and state. They gravitate towards Theocracies, or simulacrums there of.

The latins gravitate towards nepotism.

There comes a time when the saturation of a culture into a new environment allows it to take political control. Is this good or bad? I can't answer that actually. All I can say is that there are parts of each unique foriegn culture that I would NOT like to see integrated into the American cutural or political scene.

As an example, in many Arabic nations a women that is even accused of adultry is stoned to death by the husbands family. This is part of their cultural heritage. Would any indutrialized nation want that to become part of their culture?

Ishmael
 
I Found the Article Interesting.

In Australia we have a huge problem with refugees as you would be no doubt aware from the bad press our detention centres have received.

The major Australian Parties are taking a harder line on this issue why ? Well two elections ago a new political party stood candidates called One Australia it among other things stood a strong policy on illegal immigrants the party was almost neo nazi in some of its policies but it still polled 15-20% in various states.

As soon as the major parties adopted its imigration policies it support dropped off.

Mike
 
Ishmael said:


As an example, in many Arabic nations a women that is even accused of adultry is stoned to death by the husbands family. This is part of their cultural heritage. Would any indutrialized nation want that to become part of their culture?

Ishmael


i think when people immigrate into other countries they take the best parts of their culture with them and they leave behind the parts of their culture they dislike ... people immigrate to get away from things like that ... so i dont think we need to fear arabic immigrants wishing to have stoning in britain

i dont think right wing groups are getting any huge influx of voters but people are generally becoming disinterested with mainstream politics and there lack of will to discuss serious issues ... i think mainstream politics needs to get back on track and away from sound bites to attract voters back again ... extreme groups are always going to attract a minority of voters but that minority appears bigger then it really is if vote turnout is so low

without wishing to annoy australian posters i really dont like australians treatment of immigrants i wouldnt want similar policys here in the uk
 
sexy-girl said:
i think when people immigrate into other countries they take the best parts of their culture with them and they leave behind the parts of their culture they dislike ... people immigrate to get away from things like that ... so i dont think we need to fear arabic immigrants wishing to have stoning in britain

SG, Religion is NOT usually one of "the parts of their culture they dislike" that drives immigration. Economica drives more immigration than culture does.

You may not have to worry about calls for stoning adulteresses in Britain, but that kind of strict intolerance and misogynistic punishments matches far too well with some Christian fundamentalist ideas here in the US for my peace of mind.

We will probably not see see calls for stoning in the US or Britain during my lifetime, but a coalition of religious fundamentalists is already exerting pressure on many personal freedoms here and each little gain gives them more political power.
 
Who isn't restricting freedoms? The Left? The Right?

No one I see. Soon, really, it seems we may erase many of the motivations to emmigrate and hence alleviate the problem alltogether...
 
I don't really...

...see this as a left or right issue. Most moderate people are concerned about trying to maintain some balance to immigration.

While the jubilee was going on there were a number of programmes on TV by the anti-royalty crowd, if you will, that raised some interesting points.

One of these points was that virtually all of the Queen's staff are traditional, white British citizens although, apparently, the cultural balance in London (citizens not those like me who are just "settled") is more than 30% non English.

Personally I like the blend and find it invigorating to have so many cultures, beliefs, and personalities.

One of the biggest attractions of England at the moment is a remarkably low unemployment rate which suggests that many of those who do make it here by hook or crook will find more work than the countries they left. Like any society there are jobs which the indigent population do not want but that immigrants will take. It's not so different to southern California where agricultural work would not get done unless Mexican workers came across the border and did it. The trouble is that the river is a bit wider and more dangerous to cross.

It does seem to be a growing, worldwide problem that might be best addressed by all countries working together toward a solution that reduces the motivation to leave a home country.
 
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