Israel cannot win a war with Iran
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CherryCupcake
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Israel doesn't have to fight a straight-up war with Iran, as to do that someone has to go through Jordan. That's not happening.
Not that I have any wish to defend Israeli policies, which are often indefensible under Netanyahu, but it is reasonable to see the wars in Gaza and Lebanon as proxy wars for Israel. Iran armed (and so much as it can) arms Hamas and Hizbollah and with Hizbollah attacking Israel the day after October 7, in solidarity before Israel had invaded in response to the mass murder committed by Hamas the day before. Israelis are not divided about Iran as an existential threat. Iran sees their proxies as a way to maintain 'relevance' in an Arab world which largely hates them, in part due to long years of Persian rule in years BC. Standing up to Israel and the US are really high on their fundamentalist leadership's goals as they truly hate both.
in a sense, Israel's population is too low to fight a long war with Iran, but the Iranians proved tactically inventive in the Iran-Iraq war. (remember that?) and their soldiers regularly outfought a technologically superior but poorly motivated Iraqi army, enough that Saddam resorted to poison gas to hold off the Iranians, and we said very little about it at the time. So yes it's a poor match in one way, but Israel's army is superbly trained, motivated and equipped with the highest technology. So to fight that war, assuming Jordan was not in the middle, (which is convenient for both sides in some ways) would mean Iran losing a lot of people to compensate for Israeli advantages in combat power. So it's not such a bad mismatch as you suggest.
Why is Israel doing this now? Because the current Israeli government is dominated by the far right that does not want peace but rather wants to establish 'Eretz Israel' which may be seen as the modern equivalent of Israel under the rule of King David. In other words, they think their rightful place is the place they occupied at the peak of their power and the nadir of their neighbor's power. They do not believe it is possible to make peace with the Palestinians so why try? The fact that the same government has done everything possible to undermine the Palestinian Authority over the past decade has little or nothing to do with it, because again to them peace is neither possible or desirable. They see Iran as an implacable enemy who must be crushed and are using this war to settle those scores. They also realize the US is about to have an election in a couple weeks, and if Donald Trump wins they'll have a President who has publicly said that Israel should "finish the job." lf Trump loses and Kamala Harris takes over, they're hoping their allies in Congress (who are mostly Jewish or Fundies) will prevent any Harris administration from doing anything that really would constrain them. They see Hamas's attack as a God-given opportunity to run the table.
Given that neither Hamas nor the Israelis want peace, you may expect this war to expand, You may expect ethnic cleansing to expand. And we will all have a ringside seat to a tragedy.
Not that I have any wish to defend Israeli policies, which are often indefensible under Netanyahu, but it is reasonable to see the wars in Gaza and Lebanon as proxy wars for Israel. Iran armed (and so much as it can) arms Hamas and Hizbollah and with Hizbollah attacking Israel the day after October 7, in solidarity before Israel had invaded in response to the mass murder committed by Hamas the day before. Israelis are not divided about Iran as an existential threat. Iran sees their proxies as a way to maintain 'relevance' in an Arab world which largely hates them, in part due to long years of Persian rule in years BC. Standing up to Israel and the US are really high on their fundamentalist leadership's goals as they truly hate both.
in a sense, Israel's population is too low to fight a long war with Iran, but the Iranians proved tactically inventive in the Iran-Iraq war. (remember that?) and their soldiers regularly outfought a technologically superior but poorly motivated Iraqi army, enough that Saddam resorted to poison gas to hold off the Iranians, and we said very little about it at the time. So yes it's a poor match in one way, but Israel's army is superbly trained, motivated and equipped with the highest technology. So to fight that war, assuming Jordan was not in the middle, (which is convenient for both sides in some ways) would mean Iran losing a lot of people to compensate for Israeli advantages in combat power. So it's not such a bad mismatch as you suggest.
Why is Israel doing this now? Because the current Israeli government is dominated by the far right that does not want peace but rather wants to establish 'Eretz Israel' which may be seen as the modern equivalent of Israel under the rule of King David. In other words, they think their rightful place is the place they occupied at the peak of their power and the nadir of their neighbor's power. They do not believe it is possible to make peace with the Palestinians so why try? The fact that the same government has done everything possible to undermine the Palestinian Authority over the past decade has little or nothing to do with it, because again to them peace is neither possible or desirable. They see Iran as an implacable enemy who must be crushed and are using this war to settle those scores. They also realize the US is about to have an election in a couple weeks, and if Donald Trump wins they'll have a President who has publicly said that Israel should "finish the job." lf Trump loses and Kamala Harris takes over, they're hoping their allies in Congress (who are mostly Jewish or Fundies) will prevent any Harris administration from doing anything that really would constrain them. They see Hamas's attack as a God-given opportunity to run the table.
Given that neither Hamas nor the Israelis want peace, you may expect this war to expand, You may expect ethnic cleansing to expand. And we will all have a ringside seat to a tragedy.
They must know territorial expansion is impossible. Israel will never even successfully annex the land between the Green Line and the Wall.
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BrightShinyGirl
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Israel doesn’t want to invade Iran or Jordan. The purpose of the air strikes is to demostrate that the Islamic regime controlling Iran is weak and incompetent.
Israel hopes they can trigger a popular uprising in Iran that will overthrow the mullahs and replace them with a secular government who can be negotiated with and will stop supporting terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Israel hopes they can trigger a popular uprising in Iran that will overthrow the mullahs and replace them with a secular government who can be negotiated with and will stop supporting terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah.
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deckardB26354
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Yeah, right. Israel wants the US to come in and clean up their mess. They’re not going to trigger anything except US troops getting killed for a war they didn’t start. They did a great job triggering the overthrow of Hamas in Gaza, why would Iran be any different?
CherryCupcake
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I don't think the Israeli right knows they cannot annex this territory or expell the Palestinians. After, God deeded them this land. All faiths have their fanatics.
Sappho_CGN
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Really .. have a look on the map. There are some countries between Israel and Iran.
The background is that Irans reputation crumbled because they did not really supported Hisbollah and Hamas got all the "fame" in the Arab world. Iran attacked Israel to stabilise its reputation and to avoid losing influence in the Near East, the goal for Iran-Persian regimes since centuries.
Israel understands that and do not want escalating as the Iran in effect also do not want. Therefore, Israel did not start an all-out attack as many journalists explained. So Iran can pretend to have effectively defended against Israel and does not lose its face by reacting no further. The same is true for the Israelian government.
End of that story, I think.
The background is that Irans reputation crumbled because they did not really supported Hisbollah and Hamas got all the "fame" in the Arab world. Iran attacked Israel to stabilise its reputation and to avoid losing influence in the Near East, the goal for Iran-Persian regimes since centuries.
Israel understands that and do not want escalating as the Iran in effect also do not want. Therefore, Israel did not start an all-out attack as many journalists explained. So Iran can pretend to have effectively defended against Israel and does not lose its face by reacting no further. The same is true for the Israelian government.
End of that story, I think.
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We may hope. If it doesn't end here, it leads to a general regional war.
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