Is there any chance this war will destabilize Putin's regime?

[pecksniff]

He's been in charge since 1999. He hasn't accomplished anything that has made him very popular, so far as I know, and this war with Ukraine is certainly not popular. He does have opposition, though he has suppressed it very effectively. Is it possible said opposition will succeed nevertheless?

 

[KeithD]

With an authoritarian leader like Putkin in a system like Russia's there's always a chance for violent change from within. Putkin is courting that, yes, because all indications are that this is a very personal war and that he may being going too far for those around him who he can't isolate from.

 

[Rightguide]

There is news today that demonstrations against the invasion are being held in Moscow.

 

[oggbashan]

There are at least three possibilities:

1. Assassination of Putin or a coup;

2. Ukraine turns into Chechnya or Afghanistan for the Russians with guerilla warfare for years;

3. China, despite the pact, decide while most of Russia's army is in Ukraine to take over the 'stans or invade Siberia which they have always coveted.

 

[Wrong Element]

There have been anecdotes from Western observers along the lines of, "Putin seems different now, more irrational." If there's actually something to this, an issue with personality or temperament that's noticeable to people who deal with him every day, then I don't think you can discount an involuntary retirement. I wouldn't bet on that, obviously.

 

[Bud_Spencer]

We can hope. This doesn't seem like a popular move internally, and if there's pain being felt among the ruling class, they may decide they're better off without Vlad.

 

[Rotadom]

Putin made of penii.

https://imgur.com/fuKYjl8

(click and zoom in, lol)

 

[Fuzzy1975]

There is always a chance....and going to war when you already have a country that is not 100% behind you increases the odds.

 

[pecksniff]

Biden should announce that all sanctions on Russia will be lifted immediately once Putin is no longer in power.

That should at least start some Russians thinking.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Biden should announce that all sanctions on Russia will be lifted immediately once Putin is no longer in power.

That should at least start some Russians thinking.

The Russian people are not that stupid, the one's protesting already know that. No need for anyone to put a price on his head in public. Putin might not react in a rational way to that.

 

[The_Trouvere]

I have read public opinion surveys that indicate that the clear majority of Ukrainians do not want to become part of Russia. I have not read surveys on Russian opinion. My guess is that most Russians do want the Ukraine to join Russia, but that few Russians want this strongly. If Putin can win a quick, easy war with few casualties, that will probably increase his standing among the Russians. If the war drags on inconclusively with many Russian lives lost, and declines in the living standards for most Russians, Putin will be in trouble.

Putin is an authoritarian leader, but he lacks the power Stalin had to crush opposition.

 

[Bud_Spencer]

Now that Putin has put the nation's nuclear arsenal on alert, there have to be some generals giving other generals a sideward glance. It must be sinking in that they have a madman at the helm in dire need of retirement to a dacha in Crimea.

 

[butters]

state tv host, shown up as a total hypocrite for denouncing Europe and the West for their 'perversion and decay' but exposed as owing TWO Italian villas, rages against being sanctioned

During Friday’s edition of The Evening With Vladimir Soloviev, the host raged: “I was told that Europe is a citadel of rights, that everything is permitted, that’s what they said... I know from personal experience about the so-called ‘sacred property rights.’ With every transaction I was bringing paperwork demonstrating my official salary, income, I did it all. I bought it, paid crazy amount of taxes, I did everything. And suddenly someone makes a decision that this journalist is now on the list of sanctions. And right away it affects your real estate. Wait a minute. But you told us that Europe has sacred property rights!”

Stunned and dismayed, Soloviev griped: “All of a sudden, now they say: ‘Are you Russian? Then we will close your bank account, if it’s in Europe. And if it’s in England, you’re allowed to keep no more than a certain amount there. Why? Because you’re Russian.” Prominent economist Mikhail Khazin chimed in: “And that’s if you have an old account. They won’t open a new one.”

Soloviev asked: “Is this the Iron Curtain?” Germany-based pundit Alexander Sosnovsky replied: “Yes, absolutely, the Iron Curtain in its worst manifestation, painted in LGBT colors.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...talian-villa/ar-AAUm6yL?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

 

[Rightguide]

Now that Putin has put the nation's nuclear arsenal on alert, there have to be some generals giving other generals a sideward glance. It must be sinking in that they have a madman at the helm in dire need of retirement to a dacha in Crimea.

One wonders what our DEFCON status is. Is Biden awake?

 

[icanhelp1]

One wonders what our DEFCON status is. Is Biden awake?

As ridiculous as this seems I have to wonder if our carrier groups are being supplied nuclear capability.

 

[KeithD]

There's every chance this is what will get Putin. He was always going to go by violence or sudden medical death. He's as close to that point right now than he's ever been. And he's done it to himself.

 

[pecksniff]

Soloviev asked: “Is this the Iron Curtain?” Germany-based pundit Alexander Sosnovsky replied: “Yes, absolutely, the Iron Curtain in its worst manifestation, painted in LGBT colors.”

 

[pecksniff]

There is news today that demonstrations against the invasion are being held in Moscow.

And the demonstrators are being arrested.

But every demonstrator has relatives still free.

 

[Rightguide]

As ridiculous as this seems I have to wonder if our carrier groups are being supplied nuclear capability.

He's been in charge since 1999. He hasn't accomplished anything that has made him very popular, so far as I know, and this war with Ukraine is certainly not popular. He does have opposition, though he has suppressed it very effectively. Is it possible said opposition will succeed nevertheless?

As of 2015 at least 30+% of our weapons stockpile was afloat. See graph here:

https://fas.org/blogs/security/2016/02/nuclear-weapons-at-sea/

 

[pecksniff]

On a related question, is there any chance this war will destabilize Lukashenko's regime in Belarus?

 

[KeithD]

On a related question, is there any chance this war will destabilize Lukashenko's regime in Belarus?

If U.S. intel operations have recovered and are up to snuff, it very well might, yes. They should be working overtime right now to be opening up that front.

 

[butters]

2 top russian billionaires speak out against war, one (fridman) citing his Ukrainian heritage and his adopted russia with the knowledge his parents still live in Lviv, and the other, deripaska, well...

Fridman, who is one of Russia’s richest men, controls private equity firm LetterOne and was a founder of Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest private bank. In a letter to his employees he called for an end to the “bloodshed”.

Deripaska, who said as recently as 21 February there would not be a war in Ukraine, has been on the US sanctions list since 2018 over his alleged links to the Russian government, which he has taken legal action to challenge.

“Peace is very important,” wrote Deripaska, who founded Russian aluminium giant Rusal, in which he still owns a stake through shares in its London-listed parent company EN+ Group.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...n-of-ukraine/ar-AAUnJ8d?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

 

[butters]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-apply-there/ar-AAUo0ew?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

even switzerland is beginning to take action

 

[butters]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497885955130155014

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his country is committing 100 billion euros to a special fund for its armed forces—the latest in a series of major shifts in German defense and security policy this weekend in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"It's clear we need to invest significantly more in the security of our country, in order to protect our freedom and our democracy," Scholz told a special session of the Bundestag in Berlin Sunday morning, according to The Associated Press.

As well as announcing the country would raise its defense spending above two percent of GDP, Scholz said Germany will build two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and up its natural gas reserves to cut its dependence on Russian gas after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...rope-s-anger/ar-AAUnp0v?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

 

[The_Trouvere]

Now that Putin has put the nation's nuclear arsenal on alert, there have to be some generals giving other generals a sideward glance. It must be sinking in that they have a madman at the helm in dire need of retirement to a dacha in Crimea.

Or perhaps a nice, comfortable prison cell.