DrDelirium
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- May 14, 2017
- Posts
- 889
No, not yet, but it seems Trump is intent on 'decertifying' the nuclear treaty with Iran, at which point Iran will start building nukes. It's difficult to estimate just how long that would take, but however long it takes the only way to stop it would be a full-scale war with Iran.
There are a few significant differences between the current balance of forces and the situation when Obama signed the nuke deal.
1) Iran has advanced Russian anti-aircraft missiles. It's not that we can't bomb Iran, but the cost has gone up dramatically.
2) Iran has significant forces in Iraq and Syria, while the US has only air and naval assets. US proxies fighters in the region have been largely defeated.
3) Russia has a significant strategic presence in Syria now, and has been invited to cooperate with the Iraqi government in anti-terror operations.
4) Saudi Arabia, a major sponsor of US-aligned proxy fighters in the region, is economically teetering, and is getting it's ass handed to it in Yemen.
5) Another sponsor of US-aligned jihadis, Qatar, has been alienated from the wahhabist front and is now allied with Iran.
6) Turkey, a huge sponsor of us-aligned jihadis, is no longer a firm ally, but is cultivating relations with Syria, Russia, and Iraq to offset the Kurds. Turkey is backstopping Qatar, and so is in practice cooperating with Iran.
7) Hezbollah is now a major regional military power, with a large body of well-armed, well-trained and combat-experienced fighters. They also have thousands of missiles they can fire at Israel.
8) Jordan has realized they are extremely vulnerable in the event of a major conflict breaking out, and are trying to make nice with Syria and the Russians.
In essence, the only 'support' the US still has in the region are Israel, perhaps some Kurds, and Saudi Arabia,none of whom can contribute anything to a ground campaign in Iran. (And the Saudis have just negotiated an arms deal with Russia for S-400 air defense systems, which may or may not mean anything in terms of their eagerness to actually fight Iran).
Under these circumstances, an attack on Iran will lead to, at the very least, a massive missile attack on Israel. It would likely lead very directly to the toppling of the Saudi regime, the complete 'loss' of the war in Yemen. It would lead to major disruption in oil supplies. Any attempt to keep the Persian Gulf open would lead to significant losses of American air and sea assets.
So- what is the real purpose of decertification? Does Trump really want an unwinnable war that would most likely lead to destruction of the two major 'friendly' regimes in the region, Israel and KSA? Or does he think this is a good place to start WWIII with Russia? Or, perhaps, is disrupting the flow of oil and crashing the global economy the purpose- now, while the US still has some significant military advantages in many theaters?
Or is he just trying to keep Kushner and the neocons off his back for awhile with big talk- and the treaty will remain in force?
There are a few significant differences between the current balance of forces and the situation when Obama signed the nuke deal.
1) Iran has advanced Russian anti-aircraft missiles. It's not that we can't bomb Iran, but the cost has gone up dramatically.
2) Iran has significant forces in Iraq and Syria, while the US has only air and naval assets. US proxies fighters in the region have been largely defeated.
3) Russia has a significant strategic presence in Syria now, and has been invited to cooperate with the Iraqi government in anti-terror operations.
4) Saudi Arabia, a major sponsor of US-aligned proxy fighters in the region, is economically teetering, and is getting it's ass handed to it in Yemen.
5) Another sponsor of US-aligned jihadis, Qatar, has been alienated from the wahhabist front and is now allied with Iran.
6) Turkey, a huge sponsor of us-aligned jihadis, is no longer a firm ally, but is cultivating relations with Syria, Russia, and Iraq to offset the Kurds. Turkey is backstopping Qatar, and so is in practice cooperating with Iran.
7) Hezbollah is now a major regional military power, with a large body of well-armed, well-trained and combat-experienced fighters. They also have thousands of missiles they can fire at Israel.
8) Jordan has realized they are extremely vulnerable in the event of a major conflict breaking out, and are trying to make nice with Syria and the Russians.
In essence, the only 'support' the US still has in the region are Israel, perhaps some Kurds, and Saudi Arabia,none of whom can contribute anything to a ground campaign in Iran. (And the Saudis have just negotiated an arms deal with Russia for S-400 air defense systems, which may or may not mean anything in terms of their eagerness to actually fight Iran).
Under these circumstances, an attack on Iran will lead to, at the very least, a massive missile attack on Israel. It would likely lead very directly to the toppling of the Saudi regime, the complete 'loss' of the war in Yemen. It would lead to major disruption in oil supplies. Any attempt to keep the Persian Gulf open would lead to significant losses of American air and sea assets.
So- what is the real purpose of decertification? Does Trump really want an unwinnable war that would most likely lead to destruction of the two major 'friendly' regimes in the region, Israel and KSA? Or does he think this is a good place to start WWIII with Russia? Or, perhaps, is disrupting the flow of oil and crashing the global economy the purpose- now, while the US still has some significant military advantages in many theaters?
Or is he just trying to keep Kushner and the neocons off his back for awhile with big talk- and the treaty will remain in force?
