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Ira prediction: "certain death" in Galveston

Who or what Ira is, I have no idea but

Galveston is an island city south of Houston Texas. It has a sea wall along the ocean side of 14 feet. The back side of the island is open to Galveston Bay. The storm surge from Ike is predicted to be between 16 to 20 feet at the island and 20 to 25 feet in the Bay. The seawall is the high point of the island. You do the math.

There is a mandatory evacuation order for Galveston and a strip of 10 miles inland on the mainland. From the news reports 90%+ of the people in these areas have already left and the few remaining are in wait and see mode.
 
Eep. Sounds like it's gonna suck.

Thanks for filling in the blanks, Tx.
 
TxRad said:
Who or what Ira is, I have no idea but

Galveston is an island city south of Houston Texas. It has a sea wall along the ocean side of 14 feet. The back side of the island is open to Galveston Bay. The storm surge from Ike is predicted to be between 16 to 20 feet at the island and 20 to 25 feet in the Bay. The seawall is the high point of the island. You do the math.

There is a mandatory evacuation order for Galveston and a strip of 10 miles inland on the mainland. From the news reports 90%+ of the people in these areas have already left and the few remaining are in wait and see mode.
Click to expand...

Actually, it now looks like around 40 - 50% of the people who live on Galveston Island HAVE NOT LEFT. If they wait too much longer, they will not be able to leave. The ferry is not running for obvious reasons, not to mention the fact that the ferry station on Bolivar is already significantly underwater. Crossing San Luis Pass will be almost impossible soon.

As I wrote in another thread, officials are asking those staying behind to write their social security numbers on their arms in permanent ink.

There could be major loss of life from sheer stupidity. Very sad.
 
CNN interviewed one guy who was staying in Galveston because his father wouldn't leave (and his mother wouldn't because the father was staying). He wouldn't abandon them.

By the looks of things, Galveston is toast again.
 
jomar said:
CNN interviewed one guy who was staying in Galveston because his father wouldn't leave (and his mother wouldn't because the father was staying). He wouldn't abandon them.

By the looks of things, Galveston is toast again.
Click to expand...

I don't even want to turn on the TV and look. :(
 
sweetness6280 said:
Actually, it now looks like around 40 - 50% of the people who live on Galveston Island HAVE NOT LEFT. If they wait too much longer, they will not be able to leave. The ferry is not running for obvious reasons, not to mention the fact that the ferry station on Bolivar is already significantly underwater. Crossing San Luis Pass will be almost impossible soon.

As I wrote in another thread, officials are asking those staying behind to write their social security numbers on their arms in permanent ink.

There could be major loss of life from sheer stupidity. Very sad.
Click to expand...

This is the first time I've heard a weather forecaster use the term "certain death" for those who stay (if they live in one-to-two-story homes.)

I don't think it's stupidity, so much as it is disbelief. People experience false alarms throughout hurricane season, and if they haven't experienced a really terrifying storm first-hand, it's easy to believe that the forecasters are over-hyping.

I hope that turns out to be the case with Ike. Last night they were predicting 50-foot waves at Galveston Island, which would take out two-story buildings and trap people in high-rises.
 


If you watch this animation and NOAA's forecast proves accurate, the island will be completely submerged. There's a reason the forecasters have suggested that those who remain on Galveston should prepare for the storm by "writing their social security number in magic marker somewhere on their arms." If the forecast is accurate, "certain death" is an apt warning.

NOAA animation of Galveston Bay storm surge:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i47_gl2.gif


 
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shereads said:
This is the first time I've heard a weather forecaster use the term "certain death" for those who stay (if they live in one-to-two-story homes.)

I don't think it's stupidity, so much as it is disbelief. People experience false alarms throughout hurricane season, and if they haven't experienced a really terrifying storm first-hand, it's easy to believe that the forecasters are over-hyping.

I hope that turns out to be the case with Ike. Last night they were predicting 50-foot waves at Galveston Island, which would take out two-story buildings and trap people in high-rises.
Click to expand...

Disbelief, yes, and stupidity was probably too strong a word, but these are people who are surrounded everyday by monuments and museums about the 1900 hurricane. Part of my reaction is frustration, because I know people who chose to stay, and I fear for their lives.

I grew up down there, and we spent a great deal of time on the Island. Galvestonians are friendly, fun-loving people, who do reckless (maybe a better word) things during hurricanes. They tie themselves to piers to fish, grab their surboards for (finally) decent waves in the Gulf, and throw hurricane parties to drink the storm through. It's tradition. It doesn't surprise me, but I had hoped many would have learned a lesson from Katrina.

It reminds me too much of Camille, and the hurricane partiers who ended up washed out to sea. I know she was a Cat 5, and Ike is just a high Cat 2, but the storm surge is likely to be equal to that of a Cat 4. The west end of the Island is already underwater, as are most of the downtown streets.

All we can do is wait, watch, and pray.
 
Lee Chambers said:
I live in the Baytown area, which is southeast of Houston across the ship channel and our zip code was one of the areas that is under mandatory evacuation.
Click to expand...

LOL I know where it is... grew up in South Houston and Stinkadena. Stay safe and keep us posted as long as you have power. Hopefully Ike will come in just far enough to the west to minimize the surge moving up the channel.

I have family all over Houston who are all staying, but everyone in mandatory areas moved to stay with other family in non evac areas. I have friends on Galveston Island, who decided to stay. Hoping for the best, but still scared for them.

Take care.
 
Selena_Kitt said:
You nut! :x Please be safe!

:rose:
Click to expand...

No worries. I know how to swim! :D

sweetness6280 said:
LOL I know where it is... grew up in South Houston and Stinkadena. Stay safe and keep us posted as long as you have power. Hopefully Ike will come in just far enough to the west to minimize the surge moving up the channel.

I have family all over Houston who are all staying, but everyone in mandatory areas moved to stay with other family in non evac areas. I have friends on Galveston Island, who decided to stay. Hoping for the best, but still scared for them.

Take care.
Click to expand...

Yeah theres a lot of people staying, I was kind of surprised. But I guess because it isn't category five not as many people are leaving this time around. I've even heard there were a few stores staying open until the police made them close down.

Second video log is up.

Ike Log Part 2
Ike Log Part 3
 
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