25% of Russian rail transport to China is down, this in a system that was already running at over 100% reasonable capacity. Two tunnels on the Trans-Siberian rail line have been blown. The Ukrainians are taking credit (not necessarily true), but it is credible that Russian dissidents did it regardless if Ukraine was involved or not.
Here's the problem. Russia is dependent, more so now than ever, on using China as a portal, and customer, for their exports. At the same time China is dependent on Russia for a good portion of the raw materials they need for their manufacturing machine. The economy of BOTH countries are going to be seriously impacted, negatively, by these events. And both nations are already in serious economic distress. The next obvious target would be the pipelines feeding oil to China.
Russia has committed most of it's military resources to the battle over in Ukraine leaving scarce resources to guard infrastructure 3 to 4 thousand miles from Moscow. The people in Siberia are not there from choice. They are the children of the old Soviet Gulag system, they have no reason to love mother Russia. More events such as these are more than likely to occur now that Putin has moved his security to the Western front. (Putin started gutting his Siberian military presence and moving them to the Ukraine theater last Spring.)
Meanwhile China isn't going to be happy about this either and demand that Putin "do something." But there's little Putin can do. Maybe China will offer to provide 'security' for the various critical infrastructures. And I can't see Putin buying into that, kinda like granny inviting the wolf in. An alternative is for China to become openly and actively engaged with Russia in subduing Ukraine, which will have even more perilous economic consequences.
While there are many that will see this as a positive note re. the Russian incursion into Ukraine (and it is), it's a reminder that there are unintended consequences that ripple into Asia as well.
Trans-Siberian Railroad.
Here's the problem. Russia is dependent, more so now than ever, on using China as a portal, and customer, for their exports. At the same time China is dependent on Russia for a good portion of the raw materials they need for their manufacturing machine. The economy of BOTH countries are going to be seriously impacted, negatively, by these events. And both nations are already in serious economic distress. The next obvious target would be the pipelines feeding oil to China.
Russia has committed most of it's military resources to the battle over in Ukraine leaving scarce resources to guard infrastructure 3 to 4 thousand miles from Moscow. The people in Siberia are not there from choice. They are the children of the old Soviet Gulag system, they have no reason to love mother Russia. More events such as these are more than likely to occur now that Putin has moved his security to the Western front. (Putin started gutting his Siberian military presence and moving them to the Ukraine theater last Spring.)
Meanwhile China isn't going to be happy about this either and demand that Putin "do something." But there's little Putin can do. Maybe China will offer to provide 'security' for the various critical infrastructures. And I can't see Putin buying into that, kinda like granny inviting the wolf in. An alternative is for China to become openly and actively engaged with Russia in subduing Ukraine, which will have even more perilous economic consequences.
While there are many that will see this as a positive note re. the Russian incursion into Ukraine (and it is), it's a reminder that there are unintended consequences that ripple into Asia as well.
Trans-Siberian Railroad.
