If Ukraine survives this war

[pecksniff]

One thing we can be sure of: If Ukraine survives this war in any independent form, even diminished in territory, Zelensky will be a national hero for all time, like Nelson and Wellington in the UK and Washington and Lincoln in the U.S., with statues in his honor and public celebrations of his birthday. Not bad for a standup comedian.

That's not going to happen for Putin. Future generations of Russians will try as hard to forget about him as the present generation does with Stalin.

 

[Dribble]

If?

They will survive even if Russia had been capable of winning. We should be doing more to help...but Americans are cowards when it comes to fighting moral battles

 

[pecksniff]

If?

They will survive even if Russia had been capable of winning. We should be doing more to help...but Americans are cowards when it comes to fighting moral battles

Well, I said "in any independent form." A future in which Ukraine is conquered is conceivable -- but not a future in which it is easily assimilated to Russia; a guerilla insurgency would be inevitable.

Any American reluctance to "help" is based on rational fear of a nuclear exchange. If there were no nuclear weapons, the Cold War certainly would have been ended, at some point, by a ground war between the U.S. and the USSR. Americans love moral battles, even when they have to sacrifice their own sons to them.

 

[ll74]

One thing we can be sure of: If Ukraine survives this war in any independent form, even diminished in territory, Zelensky will be a national hero for all time, like Nelson and Wellington in the UK and Washington and Lincoln in the U.S., with statues in his honor and public celebrations of his birthday. Not bad for a standup comedian.

That's not going to happen for Putin. Future generations of Russians will try as hard to forget about him as the present generation does with Stalin.

He deserves praise for his ability to communicate amongst cultural minefields to the largest powers of the world without flinching even a bit.

 

[KeithD]

If?

They will survive even if Russia had been capable of winning. We should be doing more to help...but Americans are cowards when it comes to fighting moral battles

What more could we be doing without actually hurting? What responsibility, even moral, do we have to be doing more than we are? We're giving them a whole hell of a lot more resources, military and humanitarian, than anyone is giving the Russians. What obligation, beyond good-will support, do we actually have to go to direct war with anyone for them? this isn't a Parcheesi game.

 

[pecksniff]

Americans love moral battles, even when they have to sacrifice their own sons to them.

Though women are now in military service, we have yet to face a war where we risk losing large numbers of them. Many might feel differently about that sacrifice.

Of course, the U.S. almost certainly will never again fight the kind of war where victory goes to the side that can put more troops in the field.

 

[Fermina_Daza]

I think Zelensky will be regarded as a hero regardless the outcome, at this point. He could have fled or hid out in a bunker - which I suspect most of our political leaders would do.

 

[pecksniff]

It is perhaps also significant that this Jew will become the legendary hero-leader of a country that once was part of the Jewish Pale of the Russian Empire, where Jews were systematically oppressed -- the Ashkenazi homeland that the Holocaust mostly destroyed.

 

[ll74]

It is perhaps also significant that this Jew will become the legendary hero-leader of a country that once was part of the Jewish Pale of the Russian Empire, where Jews were systematically oppressed -- the Ashkenazi homeland that the Holocaust mostly destroyed.

What..no historical significance to comedians?

 

[pecksniff]

What..no historical significance to comedians?

Covered that in the OP.

Too bad we never had a President Carlin.

 

[LupusDei]

Indeed, there is no if. Ukraine will win. The question is, at what price, how decisively and how long it will take. That, however, may still carry global consequences.

Even that openly genocidal rant from RIA admitted they likely can't destroy the whole Ukraine and listed points of how to deal with the left over stump.

The much scaled back campaign that's already mostly concerned by holding gains -- except the retained ambitions to take Kharkiv and encircle what's left of the heavily fortified defensive line along the old line of contact (although either goal doesn't seem reachable currently) -- is way more realistic and better suited for Russian battle tactics, C2 systems and abilities. Next few weeks will be brutal. However, Russians are balancing on the edge of collapse no less, even perhaps closer to it than Ukrainians, and while Russians struggle to keep initiative the battle still proceed on Ukrainian terms.

The soft points are asymmetric.

Russians, despite their horrendous loses (approaching 30%) keep advantage in heavy equipment, and have mostly retained their advantage in long range fires, even though they will continue to struggle with inadequate supply (it's a doctrinal problem that can't be easily mitigated even where they don't have hostile rear).

Russian hardest problem -- short term -- is the live force, refit and replacement in general. Outnumbered and without reserves they are trying to continue to attack with a battle doctrine that accept high losses. Even trough they mitigated total, catastrophic defeat in the three sectors they pulled out from, bordering on a rout (especially in NW Kyiv, but also the tank divisions extended to the East of Kyiv should likely be considered destroyed) it's doubtful much of those rescued forces are immediately useful in any effective manner. Ongoing stealthy mobilization of reservists and mercenaries won't likely be adequate for replacement. Lacking replacement or even meaningful rotation Russians will likely continue to face problems with low morale. Further mobilization remains a long term endeavor and carry high risk of triggering popular discontent.

For Ukrainians, motivated manpower is one area they have no problems in. The size of their army is almost literally dependent on the number of available rifles -- and helmets, etc -- and training capacity. Their numerical advantage will only continue to grow. Through much better leadership, discipline and different tactics, they also suffer significantly lower casualties (it's so far 1:4 or better).

In this conflict, Ukrainians are the high tech side, with decisive advantage in intelligence and communication. While their artillery struggle to maintain even one fifth of Russian fire by volume, they actually do more damage through devastating accuracy. In their front line infantry, every second soldier or more now carry a rocket of some sort.

Ukrainian main area of risk is air dominance. Through creative use of limited resources they have managed to keep the airspace contested, but any expenditure and attrition is as of yet irreplaceable. Their local repair and manufacturing base is destroyed (by long range rocket fire). MANPADS are nice, but their effectiveness relies on mid- and high- envelope assets forcing everyone to hug treetops. Even though so far Russian "areocosmic" forces effectiveness remains limited (and they have suffered significant attrition as well), if Ukrainians lose ability to deny airspace the situation can change decisively.

Insufficient artillery volume, inability to provide local air dominance and limited mobility prevent Ukrainians from mounting large scale counter attacks and to an extent even utilize their inner supply lines and realize opportunities provided by intelligence, leading the war to an ultimate stalemate.

In my opinion it is unacceptable outcome. By acting fast on comprehensive offensive armament deliveries there is opportunity for clear victory within the three month window the Russian strength is guaranteed to continue to diminish.

 

[Chobham]

This ill advised invasion has exposed two glaring, and surprising, shortcomings in the Russian military.

Logistics; Lupus referred to this shortcoming in his write up above. Armies march on beans and bullets, the inability to supply those essentials to the front line troops is a formula for disaster. Russia was expected to sweep across Ukraine in a matter of days yet they can't seem to get food or ammunition to the troops. This exposes a huge flaw in their planning and preparation.

Force Integration; The various arms (Army, Air Force, and to a limited extent Naval) seem to be operating as independent entities. Little, if any, coordination is taking place between the air arm and the ground forces. This is a doctrinal flaw that goes right to the core of their military and there is no easy fix.

The pull back that Russia is executing right now will relieve the pressure on their logistic train. Exactly how much is unknown at this time. However there is not much that they can do about their Force Integration (Combined Arms) problem. That takes years of training as well as changing the mind set of the upper military command structure. It's not something you can correct on the fly. "You train as you fight and you fight as you train."

 

[Dribble]

What more could we be doing without actually hurting? What responsibility, even moral, do we have to be doing more than we are? We're giving them a whole hell of a lot more resources, military and humanitarian, than anyone is giving the Russians. What obligation, beyond good-will support, do we actually have to go to direct war with anyone for them? this isn't a Parcheesi game.

History has that answer. Think small...be small

 

[icanhelp1]

This ill advised invasion has exposed two glaring, and surprising, shortcomings in the Russian military.

Logistics; Lupus referred to this shortcoming in his write up above. Armies march on beans and bullets, the inability to supply those essentials to the front line troops is a formula for disaster. Russia was expected to sweep across Ukraine in a matter of days yet they can't seem to get food or ammunition to the troops. This exposes a huge flaw in their planning and preparation.

Force Integration; The various arms (Army, Air Force, and to a limited extent Naval) seem to be operating as independent entities. Little, if any, coordination is taking place between the air arm and the ground forces. This is a doctrinal flaw that goes right to the core of their military and there is no easy fix.

The pull back that Russia is executing right now will relieve the pressure on their logistic train. Exactly how much is unknown at this time. However there is not much that they can do about their Force Integration (Combined Arms) problem. That takes years of training as well as changing the mind set of the upper military command structure. It's not something you can correct on the fly. "You train as you fight and you fight as you train."

You would've thought the Russian military would've changed their doctrine after witnessing the devastation to their equipment type and how Saddam fought his units, which mirrored Russian doctrine

Indeed, there is no if. Ukraine will win. The question is, at what price, how decisively and how long it will take. That, however, may still carry global consequences.

Even that openly genocidal rant from RIA admitted they likely can't destroy the whole Ukraine and listed points of how to deal with the left over stump.

The much scaled back campaign that's already mostly concerned by holding gains -- except the retained ambitions to take Kharkiv and encircle what's left of the heavily fortified defensive line along the old line of contact (although either goal doesn't seem reachable currently) -- is way more realistic and better suited for Russian battle tactics, C2 systems and abilities. Next few weeks will be brutal. However, Russians are balancing on the edge of collapse no less, even perhaps closer to it than Ukrainians, and while Russians struggle to keep initiative the battle still proceed on Ukrainian terms.

The soft points are asymmetric.

Russians, despite their horrendous loses (approaching 30%) keep advantage in heavy equipment, and have mostly retained their advantage in long range fires, even though they will continue to struggle with inadequate supply (it's a doctrinal problem that can't be easily mitigated even where they don't have hostile rear).

Russian hardest problem -- short term -- is the live force, refit and replacement in general. Outnumbered and without reserves they are trying to continue to attack with a battle doctrine that accept high losses. Even trough they mitigated total, catastrophic defeat in the three sectors they pulled out from, bordering on a rout (especially in NW Kyiv, but also the tank divisions extended to the East of Kyiv should likely be considered destroyed) it's doubtful much of those rescued forces are immediately useful in any effective manner. Ongoing stealthy mobilization of reservists and mercenaries won't likely be adequate for replacement. Lacking replacement or even meaningful rotation Russians will likely continue to face problems with low morale. Further mobilization remains a long term endeavor and carry high risk of triggering popular discontent.

For Ukrainians, motivated manpower is one area they have no problems in. The size of their army is almost literally dependent on the number of available rifles -- and helmets, etc -- and training capacity. Their numerical advantage will only continue to grow. Through much better leadership, discipline and different tactics, they also suffer significantly lower casualties (it's so far 1:4 or better).

In this conflict, Ukrainians are the high tech side, with decisive advantage in intelligence and communication. While their artillery struggle to maintain even one fifth of Russian fire by volume, they actually do more damage through devastating accuracy. In their front line infantry, every second soldier or more now carry a rocket of some sort.

Ukrainian main area of risk is air dominance. Through creative use of limited resources they have managed to keep the airspace contested, but any expenditure and attrition is as of yet irreplaceable. Their local repair and manufacturing base is destroyed (by long range rocket fire). MANPADS are nice, but their effectiveness relies on mid- and high- envelope assets forcing everyone to hug treetops. Even though so far Russian "areocosmic" forces effectiveness remains limited (and they have suffered significant attrition as well), if Ukrainians lose ability to deny airspace the situation can change decisively.

Insufficient artillery volume, inability to provide local air dominance and limited mobility prevent Ukrainians from mounting large scale counter attacks and to an extent even utilize their inner supply lines and realize opportunities provided by intelligence, leading the war to an ultimate stalemate.

In my opinion it is unacceptable outcome. By acting fast on comprehensive offensive armament deliveries there is opportunity for clear victory within the three month window the Russian strength is guaranteed to continue to diminish.

It's obvious that Russian planners were not anticipating a defiant Ukraine military. They put all their eggs in the show of overwhelming force and the anticipated crumbling of Ukrainian will to fight. The Russians engaged their military in rapid deployment not planning for an alternative revised battle plan should they run into a wall. That 46 mile convoy was an immense tactical blunder. If the Ukrainians would have had any kind of lethal aerial ground attack capabilities such as a sufficient number of MI-hinds 24s, A-10s and radar jamming mig 29s the war would've ended before the Russians knew what hit them. Even without that capability The Ukraine military made them pay dearly for supply line congestion and lack of force protection.

Russian military lacks a top to bottom well trained NCO corp, NCOs that can demonstrate leadership ability and combat skills.

 

[ll74]

This thread which is a translation/analysis of state run Russian media statements (also sourced in the initial thread).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510999318727176197

But, the article warns, this is not enough. "A substantial part of the population" is also guilty - of "passively supporting Nazism." Therefore, they must be made to suffer all hardships of war as a just punishment. Their subsequent denazification must be achieved through...ruthless ideological repressions and strict censorship. But all of this can be achieved, the article says, only if the territory is controlled, completely, by the winners. Ukraine must be completely absorbed into Russia, with a government loyal to Kremlin installed...

 

[KeithD]

History has that answer. Think small...be small

I don't see that you have any actual thoughts on this at all. Just naive armchair jabs.

 

[pecksniff]

This ill advised invasion has exposed two glaring, and surprising, shortcomings in the Russian military.

Logistics; Lupus referred to this shortcoming in his write up above. Armies march on beans and bullets, the inability to supply those essentials to the front line troops is a formula for disaster. Russia was expected to sweep across Ukraine in a matter of days yet they can't seem to get food or ammunition to the troops. This exposes a huge flaw in their planning and preparation.

Strange to think that either side could have logistical problems in a border war. It's not like fighting overseas -- each force has friendly territory right behind it.

 

[icanhelp1]

Strange to think that either side could have logistical problems in a border war. It's not like fighting overseas -- each force has friendly territory right behind it.

It's pretty obvious you've never been involved with any kind of military operation. You pray you can get most of your equipment 100 miles without too many breakdowns. Going into a battle area requires a detailed coordination with command and control ( OPSEC, COMSEC, INTEL ) ( air/land and sea ), logistic support, fuel support, medical support, force protection, communications up and down the chain of command and an extreme knowledge of the battle space and terrain. UNDERSTAND YOUR ENEMY'S TRAINING AND WAR FIGHTING DOCTRINES. Commanders Fighting their units usually deploy after several training exercises mimicking the perceived threat. All that has to happen before the first shot is fired then all bets are off, then the only thing you can truly rely on is your training, you train how to fight and you fight the way you trained. It's extremely complex.

Good maintenance support is critical, returning damaged equipment back to the battle can mean the difference between winning and losing.

 

[pecksniff]

That's not going to happen for Putin. Future generations of Russians will try as hard to forget about him as the present generation does with Stalin.

I notice nobody is questioning this.

 

[LupusDei]

That 46 mile convoy was an immense tactical blunder. If the Ukrainians would have had any kind of lethal aerial ground attack capabilities such as a sufficient number of MI-hinds 24s, A-10s and radar jamming mig 29s the war would've ended before the Russians knew what hit them. Even without that capability The Ukraine military made them pay dearly for supply line congestion and lack of force protection.

I now have heard claims that convoy was allegedly stopped and then relentlessly harrassed by a couple of small quadra bike teams flying domestic production optocopter drones (armed with two RPG round based bombs each) in windows Russian EW was down for their own recon drones to fly.

The whole EW battle is the most interesting of those we may never learn about. Russians apparently brought in all the toys, but it was their brand new secret comms that stopped working outright, reducing them first to short wave radio Ukrainians jammed with nightmarish drunken nonsense pseudo messages, then to using locally stolen phones just as trivial for Ukrainians to listen in.

 

[pecksniff]

I now have heard claims that convoy was allegedly stopped and then relentlessly harrassed by a couple of small quadra bike teams flying domestic production optocopter drones (armed with two RPG round based bombs each) in windows Russian EW was down for their own recon drones to fly.

The whole EW battle is the most interesting of those we may never learn about. Russians apparently brought in all the toys, but it was their brand new secret comms that stopped working outright, reducing them first to short wave radio Ukrainians jammed with nightmarish drunken nonsense pseudo messages, then to using locally stolen phones just as trivial for Ukrainians to listen in.

I presume that although the languages are distinguishable, Ukrainians have no difficulty understanding Russian. It's like English and Scots.

 

[LupusDei]

I presume that although the languages are distinguishable, Ukrainians have no difficulty understanding Russian. It's like English and Scots.

Don't know how apt the comparison really is, but while Ukrainian has some vocabulary differences, and do sound slightly different, it's *almost* intelligible for anyone knowing Russian. Further, in practice virtually any Ukrainian does speak Russian, great may as the first language, or even only. Indeed, there's not only political, but even ethnic Ukrainians who only now are learning Ukrainian for the first time.

So yes, for all practical purposes both sides in the conflict speak the same language. Or at very least, curse the exact same way.

 

[pecksniff]

Don't know how apt the comparison really is

Well, Scots is not the same thing as the Scottish dialect of English, such as you might have heard in Trainspotting. Linguists consider Scots a separate language, very similar to English, and for the most part mutually intelligible, because of shared roots. Robert Burns wrote in Scots. (And then there's Scottish Gaelic, not at all a Germanic language, still spoken in some remote areas.)

I would presume Russian and Ukrainian are similarly related.

 

[LupusDei]

I would presume Russian and Ukrainian are similarly related.

They are. Both have roots in so called Church Russian, and arguably Ukrainian is closer to that than modern Russian. It's a politically hot minefield to discuss as the identity and cultural divide have extremely deep roots, but according to some the languages finally split in current forms as late as mid nineteenth century.

 

[icanhelp1]

I now have heard claims that convoy was allegedly stopped and then relentlessly harrassed by a couple of small quadra bike teams flying domestic production optocopter drones (armed with two RPG round based bombs each) in windows Russian EW was down for their own recon drones to fly.

The whole EW battle is the most interesting of those we may never learn about. Russians apparently brought in all the toys, but it was their brand new secret comms that stopped working outright, reducing them first to short wave radio Ukrainians jammed with nightmarish drunken nonsense pseudo messages, then to using locally stolen phones just as trivial for Ukrainians to listen in.

I’m sure the Uks learned how to use the thermal imaging sights of the CLU part of the Javelin for night vision capability.