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If the presidential election were held this Tuesday...

President of the United States

  • The woman who struggled with "classified"

    Votes: 23 63.9%

  • The guy who struggled with "Aleppo"

    Votes: 6 16.7%

  • The woman who struggles for recognition.

    Votes: 2 5.6%

  • The guy who struggled with "nuclear triad"

    Votes: 2 5.6%

  • OTHER

    Votes: 3 8.3%
  • Total voters
    36
  • Poll closed .
patient1

patient1

Mr. Cheyenne
Joined
Apr 24, 2001
Posts
11,362
If the presidential election were held this Tuesday, who would you vote for?

(poll to follow, in alphabetical order )
 
:D

Listening to Las Vegas' KNXT as background noise while dicing an onion and green pepper, right before the noon break Rush Limbaugh announces that Nate Silver is saying that if America voted today, it's 57+% probable The Donald wins.

Limbaugh added that if you know progressives you even kinda like, it'd be a good idea to lock all the windows in tall buildings where they congregate.

Edit to add:

My bad...

That's 55+% probable, with Trump @ 275 electoral votes, and Billary w/ 263.
 
Last edited:
There's really no question for anyone with at least half a brain who is prepared to be president of the United States and who isn't.
 
Yep, let's seem more of those "Trump is winning" polls. Nothing brings out Democratic voters than panic that they might lose.
 
toubab said:
http://media.breitbart.com/media/2016/09/Clinton-Trump-2016-Electoral-Map-Trump-Wins-640x480.jpg
Click to expand...
That's a Breitbart map and it's 'iffy' at best. They give Utah to Tromp which is most unlikely. All else even and Hillary taking Utah, they're tied at 269 -- and the election goes to Congress. But they also give Tromp the unlikely Nevada and Arizona. Hillary only needs Arizona to win.

But the big thing is that the map is meaningless. The Dems have been working very accurate micropolling; GOPs and the media haven't caught up. Those micropolls tell Dems who to push at getting out the vote. Macropolling (what we see in these media maps) is obsolete because cellphones, distrust, lying -- and lotsa working folks won't even bother with election coverage until mid-October.

My prediction: Hillary will win with ~55% popular vote and ~300 electoral votes. Not that I like the choices. I've never voted for a Clinton or Gore or Kerry or Obama. But Tromp promises shitstorms, and that sucks.
 
Hypoxia said:
That's a Breitbart map and it's 'iffy' at best. They give Utah to Tromp which is most unlikely. All else even and Hillary taking Utah, they're tied at 269 -- and the election goes to Congress. But they also give Tromp the unlikely Nevada and Arizona. Hillary only needs Arizona to win.

But the big thing is that the map is meaningless. The Dems have been working very accurate micropolling; GOPs and the media haven't caught up. Those micropolls tell Dems who to push at getting out the vote. Macropolling (what we see in these media maps) is obsolete because cellphones, distrust, lying -- and lotsa working folks won't even bother with election coverage until mid-October.

My prediction: Hillary will win with ~55% popular vote and ~300 electoral votes. Not that I like the choices. I've never voted for a Clinton or Gore or Kerry or Obama. But Tromp promises shitstorms, and that sucks.
Click to expand...

The chances of Clinton winning Utah are slim and none.
 
toubab said:
It often changes every few minutes, as new polls come in.
Click to expand...
Trump hasn't had a better than 50% chance in the Nowcast since July. The 29th, to be exact.

It's right there on the webpage, if you bother to look.
 
phrodeau said:
Trump hasn't had a better than 50% chance in the Nowcast since July. The 29th, to be exact.

It's right there on the webpage, if you bother to look.
Click to expand...

Wrong. Earlier today the Now-cast had Trump over 50% several times.
 
toubab said:
The chances of Clinton winning Utah are slim and none.
Click to expand...
Last I heard, Tromp is much-despised by orthodox Mormons as an enemy of their moral and historical values. We shall see.

toubab said:
It often changes every few minutes, as new polls come in.
Click to expand...
And those polls miss many likely voters so they're rather meaningless.

All macro-polls, and bright maps based on them, are designed to grab eyeballs. Commercial media survives on grabbed eyeballs. Once they've caught that short attention span audience and sold it some crap, they needn't care about having any connection to reality. Pundits and pollsters who are always wrong stay on the air. Bullshitters keep selling bullshit books about stuff that doesn't happen. As long as they can grab audiences, the bullshit keeps flowing. According to the pre-baghead Birchers, USA should now be sweating under Stalinist guns. Right.

Just wait till Putin's hackers tweak USA voting systems. Who do you think will win?
 
Hypoxia said:
Last I heard, Tromp is much-despised by orthodox Mormons as an enemy of their moral and historical values. We shall see.

And those polls miss many likely voters so they're rather meaningless.

All macro-polls, and bright maps based on them, are designed to grab eyeballs. Commercial media survives on grabbed eyeballs. Once they've caught that short attention span audience and sold it some crap, they needn't care about having any connection to reality. Pundits and pollsters who are always wrong stay on the air. Bullshitters keep selling bullshit books about stuff that doesn't happen. As long as they can grab audiences, the bullshit keeps flowing. According to the pre-baghead Birchers, USA should now be sweating under Stalinist guns. Right.

Just wait till Putin's hackers tweak USA voting systems. Who do you think will win?
Click to expand...

Orthodox Mormons don't like Clinton, either. Utah is a conservative state. It will likely vote for Trump, reluctantly, as the lesser of two evils.

The fear of Putin's hackers tweaking our voting systems is overblown.
 
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