It's not likely Communism in Cuba will fall abruptly like in the Eastern European "hole in the flag" revolutions. If the U.S. successfully pressured them to hold free multiparty elections, that would open a prolonged and furious national DEBATE about the value of socialism, many taking a certain national pride in their homegrown version of it, and others viewing "Bolivarianism" as a viable alternative model of it.
If Cuba falls
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briancamdudetenger2018
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there is probley alternate earths where cuba did fall
and also probley other alternate earths where cuba did not fall
and also probley other alternate earths where cuba did not fall
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/.../trump-cuba-regime-change-rubio-b2905376.html
Trump aiming for regime change in Cuba by end of year after Venezuela raid: report
Administration reportedly seeking government insiders able to ‘see the writing on the wall’ and prepared to strike a deal to remove Havana’s Communist rulers
President Donald Trump’s administration is planning to orchestrate regime change in Cuba before the end of this year, emboldened by the recent capture of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, according to a report.
The administration is “searching for Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime,” The Wall Street Journal reports, noting that its officials had met with exiles and civic groups in Miami and Washington in the hoping of identifying an official in Havana ready to “see the writing on the wall.”
Trump’s team reportedly do not have “a concrete plan” in place for toppling Cuba’s Communist government, in place since Fidel Castro’s revolutionaries overthrew Fulgencio Batista in 1959, and former Obama administration official Ricardo Zuniga has warned of the difficulty of achieving such a goal.
Trump aiming for regime change in Cuba by end of year after Venezuela raid: report
Administration reportedly seeking government insiders able to ‘see the writing on the wall’ and prepared to strike a deal to remove Havana’s Communist rulers
President Donald Trump’s administration is planning to orchestrate regime change in Cuba before the end of this year, emboldened by the recent capture of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, according to a report.
The administration is “searching for Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime,” The Wall Street Journal reports, noting that its officials had met with exiles and civic groups in Miami and Washington in the hoping of identifying an official in Havana ready to “see the writing on the wall.”
Trump’s team reportedly do not have “a concrete plan” in place for toppling Cuba’s Communist government, in place since Fidel Castro’s revolutionaries overthrew Fulgencio Batista in 1959, and former Obama administration official Ricardo Zuniga has warned of the difficulty of achieving such a goal.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/...l-blockade-to-halt-cuban-oil-imports-00744708
Trump administration weighs naval blockade to halt Cuban oil imports
“Energy is the chokehold to kill” the Cuban regime, said a person familiar with the discussions.
The Trump administration is weighing new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including imposing a total blockade on oil imports to the Caribbean country, three people familiar with the plan said Thursday.
That escalation has been sought by some critics of the Cuban government in the administration and backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to two of the three people, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive discussions. No decision has been made on whether to approve that move, but it could be among the suite of possible actions presented to President Donald Trump to force the end of Cuba’s communist government, these people added.
Preventing shipments of crude oil to the island would be a step-up from Trump’s statement last week that the U.S. would halt Cuba’s imports of oil from Venezuela, which had been its main crude supplier.
But there are ongoing debates within the administration about whether it is even necessary to go that far, according to all three people. The loss of Venezuelan oil shipments — and the resale of some of those cargoes that Havana used to obtain foreign currency — has already throttled Cuba’s laggard economy. A total blockade of oil imports into Cuba could then spark a humanitarian crisis, a possibility that has led some in the administration to push back against it.
The discussions, however, show the extent to which people inside the Trump administration are considering deposing leaders in Latin America they view as adversaries.
“Energy is the chokehold to kill the regime,” said one person familiar with the plan who was granted anonymity to describe the private discussions. Deposing the country’s communist government – in power since the Cuban revolution in 1959 – is “100 percent a 2026 event” in the administration’s eyes, this person added.
Trump administration weighs naval blockade to halt Cuban oil imports
“Energy is the chokehold to kill” the Cuban regime, said a person familiar with the discussions.
The Trump administration is weighing new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including imposing a total blockade on oil imports to the Caribbean country, three people familiar with the plan said Thursday.
That escalation has been sought by some critics of the Cuban government in the administration and backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to two of the three people, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive discussions. No decision has been made on whether to approve that move, but it could be among the suite of possible actions presented to President Donald Trump to force the end of Cuba’s communist government, these people added.
Preventing shipments of crude oil to the island would be a step-up from Trump’s statement last week that the U.S. would halt Cuba’s imports of oil from Venezuela, which had been its main crude supplier.
But there are ongoing debates within the administration about whether it is even necessary to go that far, according to all three people. The loss of Venezuelan oil shipments — and the resale of some of those cargoes that Havana used to obtain foreign currency — has already throttled Cuba’s laggard economy. A total blockade of oil imports into Cuba could then spark a humanitarian crisis, a possibility that has led some in the administration to push back against it.
The discussions, however, show the extent to which people inside the Trump administration are considering deposing leaders in Latin America they view as adversaries.
“Energy is the chokehold to kill the regime,” said one person familiar with the plan who was granted anonymity to describe the private discussions. Deposing the country’s communist government – in power since the Cuban revolution in 1959 – is “100 percent a 2026 event” in the administration’s eyes, this person added.
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...a-amid-concerns-trump-retaliation-2026-01-23/
Mexico weighs stopping oil shipments to Cuba amid concerns of Trump retaliation, sources say
MEXICO CITY, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The Mexican government is reviewing whether to keep sending oil to Cuba amid growing fears within President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration that Mexico could face reprisals from the United States over the policy, which is a vital lifeline for the Communist-run Caribbean island, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.
A U.S. blockade of oil tankers in Venezuela in December and the dramatic capture of President Nicolas Maduro this month have halted Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, leaving Mexico as the single-largest supplier to the island that suffers from energy shortages and mass blackouts.
Mexico weighs stopping oil shipments to Cuba amid concerns of Trump retaliation, sources say
MEXICO CITY, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The Mexican government is reviewing whether to keep sending oil to Cuba amid growing fears within President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration that Mexico could face reprisals from the United States over the policy, which is a vital lifeline for the Communist-run Caribbean island, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.
A U.S. blockade of oil tankers in Venezuela in December and the dramatic capture of President Nicolas Maduro this month have halted Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, leaving Mexico as the single-largest supplier to the island that suffers from energy shortages and mass blackouts.
Trump just threatened tariffs on any country that sells oil to Cuba.
https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...selling-oil-cuba-declaring/story?id=129687112
https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...selling-oil-cuba-declaring/story?id=129687112
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...p-sending-oil-energy-starved-cuba-2026-02-02/
Trump says Mexico will stop sending oil to energy-starved Cuba
Trump says Mexico will stop sending oil to energy-starved Cuba
LLCox
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Mexico is now sending oil to Cuba and the US is sending 6 mil in aid.
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/cuba/...uel-island-us-blockade-deepens-ene-rcna258276
Cuba says airlines can no longer refuel on the island as U.S. blockade deepens energy crisis
Political pressure from President Donald Trump on Latin America has effectively severed Cuba’s access to its primary petroleum sources in Venezuela and Mexico.
Cuba says airlines can no longer refuel on the island as U.S. blockade deepens energy crisis
Political pressure from President Donald Trump on Latin America has effectively severed Cuba’s access to its primary petroleum sources in Venezuela and Mexico.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5763214-graham-lauds-us-iran-strikes/
Sen. Lindsey Graham says ‘Cuba is next’ after Iran strikes
Sen. Lindsey Graham says ‘Cuba is next’ after Iran strikes
https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/cuba-charges-six-individuals-with-terrorism-over-sea-incident/
Cuba charges six individuals with terrorism over sea incident
Cuban prosecutors formally charged six individuals with acts that Cuba terms terrorism, and ordered them held in custody pending trial. The charges relate to an incident last week: aboard a speedboat that entered Cuban waters, four Cubans were shot dead and six more people were wounded. Officials later confirmed that the suspects remain in custody pending the case.
According to the Cuban Ministry of the Interior, the maritime incident was treated as a shoot-out: an attack on a border guard vessel by Cuban exiles who had arrived from the United States and allegedly sought to sow chaos and attack military units on the island, which is controlled by the communists.
Cuba charges six individuals with terrorism over sea incident
Cuban prosecutors formally charged six individuals with acts that Cuba terms terrorism, and ordered them held in custody pending trial. The charges relate to an incident last week: aboard a speedboat that entered Cuban waters, four Cubans were shot dead and six more people were wounded. Officials later confirmed that the suspects remain in custody pending the case.
According to the Cuban Ministry of the Interior, the maritime incident was treated as a shoot-out: an attack on a border guard vessel by Cuban exiles who had arrived from the United States and allegedly sought to sow chaos and attack military units on the island, which is controlled by the communists.
briancamdudetenger2018
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it would be the 1st time since the bay of pigs in the 60s
That plan depended on using anti-Castro Cuban expatriates.
Somehow I doubt you could find very many volunteers for such an expedition in Miami, any more.
briancamdudetenger2018
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oh ok
dmallord
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Most Cuban Americans these days are Republicans in Florida. Those who lived the Bay of Pigs era are older than me and they don’t make outboard motor boats for that many guys in wheelchairs anymore or wwith oxygen hoses that stretch from Miami to Cuba.
I wonder how many Miami Cubans really CARE any more. I lived there once and there was a big flap over elementary schools using a book called "Vamonos a Cuba!" that portrayed Cuba as just a country, not a horrible totalitarian dictatorship. But I think all that comes mostly from the OLDER generation, the ones whose parents fled Castro's revolution, and were always talking about how they would someday get back the family's sugarcane plantation. The young might not care so much.Most Cuban Americans these days are Republicans in Florida. Those who lived the Bay of Pigs era are older than me and they don’t make outboard motor boats for that many guys in wheelchairs anymore or wwith oxygen hoses that stretch from Miami to Cuba.
Side note: The best Cuban cuisine is to be found in Tampa. In Miami, arroz con pollo is just rice and chicken, not even cooked together, and they use SOFT bread to make Cuban sandwiches!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_sandwich
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_sandwich
dmallord
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From El Pais newspaper:
"At first glance, nothing has changed in Florida since the Biden administration concluded back in January. Egg cartons are just as expensive. Gasoline prices haven’t gone down. Rent is rising daily. These were the issues that Cuban-Americans were concerned about and voted on in the November elections, a time when — unlike other years when Cuba policy steered their vote — they were most concerned about the country’s economy. This, at least, is according to a survey by FIU. After nine months in office, however, Guillermo Grenier, the sociologist at FIU who led the survey, affirms that Trump “hasn’t delivered on his promises to reinvigorate the economy.”
“The economy is much worse now than when Biden left office,” he says. But Grenier insists that this fact doesn’t mean the community “feels let down,” nor does it guarantee “a widespread departure from Trumpism or the Republican Party.”
~~~~
So, stabbed in the back like MAGA, the Cubans in Florida still drink the Felon’s kool-aid and swallow, but more reluctantly now.
"At first glance, nothing has changed in Florida since the Biden administration concluded back in January. Egg cartons are just as expensive. Gasoline prices haven’t gone down. Rent is rising daily. These were the issues that Cuban-Americans were concerned about and voted on in the November elections, a time when — unlike other years when Cuba policy steered their vote — they were most concerned about the country’s economy. This, at least, is according to a survey by FIU. After nine months in office, however, Guillermo Grenier, the sociologist at FIU who led the survey, affirms that Trump “hasn’t delivered on his promises to reinvigorate the economy.”
“The economy is much worse now than when Biden left office,” he says. But Grenier insists that this fact doesn’t mean the community “feels let down,” nor does it guarantee “a widespread departure from Trumpism or the Republican Party.”
~~~~
So, stabbed in the back like MAGA, the Cubans in Florida still drink the Felon’s kool-aid and swallow, but more reluctantly now.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-cuba-may-or-may-not-be-friendly-takeover-2026-03-09/
Trump on Cuba: May or may not be a "friendly takeover"
DORAL, Fla., March 9 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday Cuba is in "deep trouble" on a humanitarian basis and that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was dealing with the issue which may or may not be a "friendly takeover."
"He's dealing (with it) and it may be a friendly takover, it may not be a friendly takeover. Wouldn't really matter because they're really down to...as they say, fumes. They have no energy, they have no money," Trump, speaking at a news conference in Doral, Florida told reporters.
Trump on Cuba: May or may not be a "friendly takeover"
DORAL, Fla., March 9 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday Cuba is in "deep trouble" on a humanitarian basis and that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was dealing with the issue which may or may not be a "friendly takeover."
"He's dealing (with it) and it may be a friendly takover, it may not be a friendly takeover. Wouldn't really matter because they're really down to...as they say, fumes. They have no energy, they have no money," Trump, speaking at a news conference in Doral, Florida told reporters.
briancamdudetenger2018
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lol well there be a bay of pigs 2
Not just like it. They could not find enough Cuban volunteers in America, any more, to form an expatriate invasion force. It would have to be the United States Armed Forces. And unlike the Bay of Pigs invaders, they could not pin their hopes on a domestic uprising.
https://apnhttps//apnews.com/articl...p-war-powers-f5e84e9195fcdf7d79dd46a066dec6d5
Democratic senators file war powers resolution to check Trump on Cuba
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democrats have filed legislation that would prevent the U.S. from attacking Cuba without congressional approval as they seek to force a vote on President Donald Trump’s stated goal of a “takeover” of the Caribbean country.
Democrats have repeatedly used war powers resolutions to force debate on Trump’s foreign policy moves, though Republicans have so far mostly backed the president. The resolution filed Thursday by Democratic Sens. Tim Kaine, Ruben Gallego and Adam Schiff would require the president to remove the military from any hostilities with Cuba and could potentially receive a vote by the end of the month.
“Only Congress has the power to declare war under the Constitution, but he operates with the belief that the U.S. military is a palace guard, ordering military action in the Caribbean, Venezuela, and Iran without Congress’ authorization or any explanation for his actions to the American people,” Kaine said in a statement.
Democratic senators file war powers resolution to check Trump on Cuba
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democrats have filed legislation that would prevent the U.S. from attacking Cuba without congressional approval as they seek to force a vote on President Donald Trump’s stated goal of a “takeover” of the Caribbean country.
Democrats have repeatedly used war powers resolutions to force debate on Trump’s foreign policy moves, though Republicans have so far mostly backed the president. The resolution filed Thursday by Democratic Sens. Tim Kaine, Ruben Gallego and Adam Schiff would require the president to remove the military from any hostilities with Cuba and could potentially receive a vote by the end of the month.
“Only Congress has the power to declare war under the Constitution, but he operates with the belief that the U.S. military is a palace guard, ordering military action in the Caribbean, Venezuela, and Iran without Congress’ authorization or any explanation for his actions to the American people,” Kaine said in a statement.
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