How many Democrat congressmen will lose their seats in November?

[miles]

I'm guessing at least 8-10. They're in a world of shit. I wonder if Obama's disapproval ratings will be lower than theirs?

 

[The_Trouvere]

http://www.photorox.com/images/whiteknight64/4stfum5.jpg

 

[pointless]

at what point did it become fashionable to abuse the question mark by putting it at the end of statements while refusing to place it at the end of questions. serious question?

 

[redpaint]

I'm guessing at least 8-10. They're in a world of shit. I wonder if Obama's disapproval ratings will be lower than theirs?

More like 10-10. The way they have been going and all the bulling they did this summer, People don't forget.

 

[pointless]

More like 10-10. The way they have been going and all the bulling they did this summer, People don't forget.

does it hurt to be this dumb?

 

[koalabear]

Hopefully the ones that lost their mind will.

 

[pellso27]

Not enough!

 

[Tungwagger]

Not enough!

Personally, I believe ALL 435 should lose their jobs,

And the 1/3 that are up for re-election in the Senate.

Whether they are doing a good job is irrelevant.

It's what is desperately needed.

Until they start understanding the concept of a Representative Republic.

 

[fgarvb1]

I think you are looking at it all wrong.

I think more Conservatives will be elected into office both Republican and Democrat as a result of their liberal raping of the American Constitution and betrayal of the people that has taken place.

Then we start trashing stuff...Health Care Bill first.

 

[Tungwagger]

Can we just for a minute, take the time to envision the first day of the new Congress., when 435 freshman members resemble the debut show of Survivor.

All looking at one another with suspicion, wondering who the leaders should be. Especially after the previous 435 were summarily dismissed en masse.

Next on the agenda, would be the first conference to determine what the priorities should be, and how to go about it.

Why, there would be total legislative inactivity for at least 3 months...

 

[firespin]

You'd expect 30-40 seats to change parties given Obama's popularity. Some are defeated incumbents, but others are open seats due to retirements.

In 1994, the Repos gained 54 seats.

In 1982, the Demos gained 27 seats.

So someplace in between those two, I'm thinking.

 

[Tungwagger]

One can still dream at least.

They haven't figured out a way to tax that yet...

Just made it more expensive.

 

[Tungwagger]

You'd expect 30-40 seats to change parties given Obama's popularity. Some are defeated incumbents, but others are open seats due to retirements.

In 1994, the Repos gained 54 seats.

In 1982, the Demos gained 27 seats.

So someplace in between those two, I'm thinking.

That's what Pelosi is using as her rallying cry.

"I only regret that you all have but one political life to give for your country"

 

[KingOrfeo]

[shrug] The out-party usually gains seats in the midterm. I'm sure Obama and the DNC will plan for it. The interesting question is how many contestable seats will be won by hard-right Pubs and how many by moderates. Very interesting question.

 

[Powertone]

[shrug] The out-party usually gains seats in the midterm. I'm sure Obama and the DNC will plan for it. The interesting question is how many contestable seats will be won by hard-right Pubs and how many by moderates. Very interesting question.

Pelosi figured to get the healthcare grenade passed she could take 25 D casualties and be happy...

No more RINO in Congress ! No more RINO in Senate !

 

[KingOrfeo]

No more RINO in Congress ! No more RINO in Senate !

Possibly, depending on the local dynamics of each election . . . but, in the aggregate, I rather expect it's going to go the other way. Have you not figured out, yet, that hard-right movement conservatism is on the decline?

I'm basing that opinion on what seem to be pretty solid sources:

The Emerging Democratic Majority, by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira (2002; its predictions were substantially borne out in 2008).

The Death of Conservatism, by Sam Tanenhaus; Newsweek interview here; GB thread here.

The Pew Political Typology. Put all the conservative typology groups together and you still don't have a majority.

2007 study by the Pew Research Center showing a changed political environment more favorable to the Dems/liberals/left.

2009 study by the Center for American Progress. This last one is very telling:

For years, traditional public opinion polling has broken down ideology into three distinct groupings: liberal, moderate, and conservative. Based on this categorization, there has been remarkable stability in ideological orientation, with roughly one-fifth of Americans identifying themselves as “liberal” and about four in 10 classifying themselves as “moderate”
or ”conservative,” respectively, according to Gallup polling from 1992 to 2008.

In this study, however, the electorate is broken down using a more expansive five-point scale of political ideology that reflects the variety of approaches people ascribe to today. Employing this more calibrated measure, 34 percent of the country identifies as “conservative,” 29 percent as “moderate,” 15 percent as “liberal,” 16 percent as “progressive,” and 2 percent as “libertarian.” After moderates are asked which approach they lean toward, the overall ideological breakdown of the country divides into fairly neat left and right groupings, with 47 percent of Americans identifying as progressive or liberal and 48 percent as conservative or libertarian. The rest are unsure or scattered among moderate and other approaches.

Combining this five-point scale of political ideology with responses to the 40 specific ideological statements, the progressive leanings of the country become readily apparent. On the domestic front, after years of supply-side tax cuts, support for corporations (especially extractive oil and mining companies), and deregulation of the economy, large percentages of Americans increasingly favor progressive ideas centered on: sustainable lifestyles and green energy; public investment in education, infrastructure, and science; financial support for the poor, elderly, and sick; regulation of business to protect workers and consumers; and guaranteed affordable health coverage for every American. On the international front, the legacy of the Bush years has yielded to an American public far more interested in restoring the country’s image abroad, fighting climate change, and pursuing security through diplomacy, alliances, and international institutions than in the continued pursuit of national objectives through the sole projection of military might.

Approximately two-thirds of Americans—reaching to 70 percent to 80 percent on some measures—agree with progressive ideas in each of these domestic and global areas (see Table 1). Important cleavages emerge in the data, however, between non-college-educated Americans and college-educated elites. Non-college Americans are more populist and progressive than elites on some measures of government and economics and much more conservative on cultural and national security measures.

The rise of progressivism in America is reflected more starkly in direct ratings of various ideological approaches. Today, more than two-thirds of Americans rate a “progressive” approach to politics favorably, a 25-point increase in favorability over the last five years, with gains coming primarily from those who were previously unaware of the term. “Progressive” now equals ”conservative” in terms of overall public favorability (67 percent, respectively).

The continuing strength of the conservative brand—if not all of its constitutive ideas—reflects the long-term success of the conservative movement over decades. Despite electoral setbacks and larger proportions of Americans now adhering to progressive ideas about governance and society, the conservative worldview remains appealing to many Americans and creates important cleavages in the electorate, particularly on key cultural and national security beliefs. Conservative principles about markets, spending, national defense, and traditional values enjoy residual strength and could rise in prominence depending on shifts in the economic and political environment. Conservatives may be down but they are not out of the ideology game.

But unless and until conservatives recognize the depth of affinity between President Obama’s ideological approach and that of the American electorate, conservative ideas likely will remain in secondary status. According to this research, President Obama himself—and his ideas about governance outlined in his recent address to the joint session of Congress and his budget overview—best embodies in spirit, tone, and ideological and substantive content the emerging center spot in the American electorate today. The strong public support for President Obama reflects personal qualities and strengths that appeal broadly to Americans and genuine consensus among the public about the ideas and prescriptions necessary to navigate the country through turbulent waters.

Notably, the ideological areas of greatest consensus among Americans are all key priorities and investment targets of President Obama: renewable energy; education, science, and infrastructure; universal health care; financial support for the least well-off; public interest regulations; and reductions in inequality financed by increased taxes on the wealthy.

As the “New Progressive America” report by Ruy Teixeira for the Progressive Studies Program argues, these ideological trends are likely to grow over time as particular demographic groups increase in electoral importance. A companion youth survey by the Progressive Studies Program reveals that progressive attitudes about government and economics are particularly strong among those under the age of 30, suggesting the potential for further strengthening of progressivism within the electorate.

Going a bit deeper, this research shows that ideological labels do not easily map onto predetermined patterns of thought and often mask a fluidity of opinion across and within groups. Case in point: Majorities of self-identified conservatives agree with four out of five progressive perspectives on the role of government while majorities of self-identified progressives and liberals agree with conservative economic positions on things like trade and Social Security.

Additionally, self-identified progressives and liberals share many views and beliefs about government and the economy but hold somewhat differing beliefs on cultural and international concerns. Likewise, although conservatives and libertarians are frequently considered to be part of the same tribe, our research finds that self-identified conservatives look rather poorly upon the libertarian approach (only 35 percent of conservatives rate “libertarian” favorably).

The GOP will come back, I'm sure -- but the modern American post-Goldwater conservative movement will be declining, very slowly, but steadily and inexorably, from here on out. That decline is based on demographic trends which are not going to reverse themselves.

We'll be hearing a lot from the conservative movement for a long while yet, of course -- not because it represents an increasing or even constant base of Americans, but because it still has a lot of institutional advantages, wholly-owned media outlets, think-tanks, grassroots organizations, astroturf organizations, and deep-pocket corporate backers.

 

[unregistered]

 

[KingOrfeo]

The Democrats are banking on the notoriously short memory of the American people, and hoping the state controlled media will erase any remaining memory of their unconstitutional malfeasance by the time the election cycles into their awareness. This will require the resurrection of the evil G.W. Bush, and a massive psychological sympathy bombardment of old JFK camelot history specials.

More likely the Congressional races will be fought on local concerns and candidates' individual personalities/qualifications/connections, as is usual in midterms. The Pubs' national coordinated "Contract With America" strategy in 1994 was a rarity, and not likely to be soon repeated by either party.

 

[unregistered]

 

[KingOrfeo]

Actually, I think all incumbents are in danger regardless of position, but because the Dems have more candidates to rail at they will suffer the largest number of casualties.

Like I said, the out-party usually gains seats in the midterm.

 

[Pookie]

It's never as bad or good as it looks in politics. It's an eternity until the next election as far as politics go too. Health care will be an after thought by then and it won't directly effect the election. Some will cheer it, others will hate it. But, the heat of the moment will have passed.

It's going to come down to the economy. Jobs, to be specific. If the economy is still tanking and losing jobs (or just breaking even), the Democrats will likely be in big trouble with the House. If the economy is growing and there is significant job growth by the summer, the Dems will lose a few seats, but won't lose the House.

 

[unregistered]

 

[Ishmael]

As Pooks pointed out the economy is going to be the determining factor. And it's not looking good between now and next Nov.

Another factor is going to be the results of the DeathCare package. The house has to vote on the latest offering by the Senate, which means that all of those vulnerable Dems are going to have to be bribed again. The problem for the Dems is that the House package is totally unacceptable to the Senate and the Senate bill is a non-starter with the hard-core leftists in the house. Pelosi is going to be left having to deal with two disaffected factions now.

The repubs are going to take a pass and allow the dems to own whatever is passed, if anything, lock, stock, and barrel.

Should the dems be able to get their act together, remote but possible, they are going to have to face a public that is going to be even more angered by the fact that all of the taxes contained in the bill(s) take effect immediately but none of the benefits will be kicking in until 2013 at the earliest.

They dug this hole all by themselves and you'd think they'd be smart enough to quit digging. Guess not.

Ishmael

 

[Liar]

Actually, I think all incumbents are in danger regardless of position, but because the Dems have more candidates to rail at they will suffer the largest number of casualties.

Probably true. Doesn't it always wobble back and forth a bit each election?

I doubt it will wobble enough to get the Reps a house majority though. They'll gain a handful, unless they manage to do another batch of NY-23 fails.

Look at the special elections this fall. The Dems won two House seats. The Reps won two Governor seats. In each case the winner was the one that didn't come off to the electorate as either a dingbat or just plain corrupt.

The key for the Reps in 2010 is more of that, to show the voters that they're not a flailing bunch of reactionary yahoos, but that they CAN actually be adults.

 

[unregistered]