Fear & Greed
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WoundedKnee
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Right above the ^ should be the word, self-interest.
This stems form a comment I made earlier in another thread.
This stems form a comment I made earlier in another thread.
trysail
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Inflation premium for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnGa
Inflation premium for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury note:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnGK
Yield Curve Steepness (10-Year U.S. Treasury YTM- 1-Year U.S. Treasury YTM) v. S&P 500
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnGM
trysail
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Inflation premium (Federal Funds rate minus 12-month trailing inflation [CPI rate]):
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnGU
WTI price:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnH0
Natural Gas Price:
https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.png?g=hHSz
trysail
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Global Coal price:
https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.png?g=jnH7
Money Supply v M1 Velocity:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnHd
The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks. These data are adjusted for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnHh
trysail
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Federal Surplus or Deficit
Units: Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Annual, Fiscal Year
Dates represent the end of the fiscal year. Fiscal year series are updated with official OMB figures in January or February. In October, the latest fiscal year is updated with figures from the Treasury Department (September figures from the Treasury's fiscal year to date series).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnHl
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jnHq
Antryg_Windrose
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How do those graphs correlate with climate change?
trysail
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I've just made a pretty damn big bet. The price isn't provably outrageous but, over the years, the company has proven to be a decent business. Right now, it's got a pretty fat dividend yield with a dividend that appears sustainable and has grown. The ownership is concentrated and controlled by people with a reputation for good management and shareholder-friendly behavior.
One never knows in advance which ones are going to work but this one feels pretty good.
trysail
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Not Normal
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win elections
trysail
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The sainted Mencken was right about a great many things.
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace in a continual state of alarm (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing them with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
—H. L. Mencken
trysail
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The consumer price index for May has been reported as rising 0.2% (seasonally adjusted).
The trailing twelve month consumer price index has risen 2.8% (but the pundits are quick to point out that excluding food and energy prices, the annual rate was 2.2%).
That makes perfect sense doesn't it? After all, you don't use food or energy. Right?
EyeStruggle
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I would say PRIDE is man's biggest cause of downfall...
trysail
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If Dimon is right about a 5% Treasury YTM (and I doubt there is anybody who can accurately predict interest rates), owning stocks is not going to be fun.
_________________________
If you believe
you'd be wise to remember (or learn about):
1929-1950
1968-1974
1979-81
1987
2000
2008-9.
Kirkrapine
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Kirkrapine
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And we can't very well do without fear, can we?
trysail
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That's generally accurate.
How else does civilization progress if there is no reward for risk or the performance of socially beneficial activities?
Nothing gets done if somebody doesn't have a chance to make a buck.
trysail
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Annual Returns (1960-2018)
Cash, Intermediate Term U.S. Treasury Bonds, S&P 500 and CPI Inflation
Code:
Annual Returns [Source: Vanguard Group and Ibbotson Associates]
* S&P 500 Index
** Intermediate Term Treasury Bond
Year Cash Bonds**Stocks*Inflation
1960 2.7 11.8 0.5 1.5
1961 2.1 1.9 26.9 0.7
1962 2.7 5.6 (8.7) 1.2
1963 3.1 1.6 22.8 1.6
1964 3.5 4.0 16.5 1.2
1965 3.9 1.0 12.5 1.9
1966 4.8 4.7 (10.1) 3.4
1967 4.2 1.0 24.0 3.0
1968 5.2 4.5 11.1 4.7
1969 6.6 (0.7) (8.5) 6.1
1970 6.5 16.9 4.0 5.5
1971 4.4 8.7 14.3 3.4
1972 3.8 5.2 19.0 3.4
1973 6.9 4.6 (14.7) 8.8
1974 8.0 5.7 (26.5) 12.2
1975 5.8 7.8 37.2 7.0
1976 5.1 12.9 23.8 4.8
1977 5.1 1.4 (7.2) 6.8
1978 7.2 3.5 6.6 9.0
1979 10.4 4.1 18.4 13.3
1980 11.2 3.9 32.4 12.4
1981 14.7 9.5 (4.9) 8.9
1982 10.5 29.1 21.4 3.9
1983 8.8 7.4 22.5 3.8
1984 9.9 14.0 6.3 4.0
1985 7.7 20.3 32.2 3.8
1986 6.2 15.1 18.5 1.1
1987 5.5 2.9 5.2 4.4
1988 6.4 6.1 16.8 4.4
1989 8.4 13.3 31.5 4.7
1990 7.8 9.7 (3.2) 6.1
1991 5.6 15.5 30.6 3.1
1992 3.5 7.2 7.7 2.9
1993 2.9 11.2 10.0 2.8
1994 3.9 (5.1) 1.3 2.7
1995 5.6 16.8 37.4 2.5
1996 5.2 2.1 23.1 3.3
1997 5.3 8.4 33.4 1.7
1998 4.9 10.2 28.6 1.6
1999 4.7 (1.8) 21.0 2.7
2000 5.9 12.6 (9.1) 3.4
2001 3.8 7.6 (11.9) 1.6
2002 1.7 12.9 (22.1) 2.4
2003 1.0 2.4 28.7 1.9
2004 1.2 2.3 10.9 3.3
2005 3.0 1.4 4.9 3.4
2006 4.8 2.8 15.8 2.5
2007 4.8 10.2 5.5 4.3
2008 2.1 16.8 (37.0) 0.1
2009 0.4 (4.8) 26.5 2.7
2010 0.1 7.6 15.1 1.1
2011 0.1 13.2 2.1 3.0
2012 0.0 3.6 16.0 1.7
2013 0.0 (4.7) 32.4 1.5
2014 0.0 6.4 13.7 0.7
2015 0.0 1.8 1.4 0.7
2016 0.2 1.9 12.0 2.1
2017 0.9 2.2 21.8 2.1
2018 1.8 1.2 (4.4) 1.9
2019 1.6 7.5 31.5 2.3
The S&P 500 total return for 2018 was -4.38%
Last edited:
trysail
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PSA:
OMAHA, NE—Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s 2018 Annual Report to the shareholders will be posted on the Internet on Saturday, February 23, 2019, at approximately 8:00 a.m. eastern time...
The Annual Report will include Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders...
The Annual Report will include Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders...
nowisthetime
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Fear and Greed, pretty much sums up the modern day Repug party.
trysail
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Niccolò di Bernardo dei Machiavelli (1469-1527) predates the "modern day" by several centuries.
In any event, it is not the intent or purpose of this thread to serve as a wall for political graffiti.
In the interest of politeness and good manners, kindly refrain from using it as such. There is no shortage of threads in the GeeBee where you may exercise (and exorcise) that urge.
trysail
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The 5-Year US Treasury YTM and the 1-Year US Treasury YTM have inverted.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=nfIn
Historically, inversion of the US yield curve portends trouble for the U.S. economy.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=nfIK
