Evacutations: How would you do it?

[Colleen Thomas]

Most of Houston's evacuation problems seem to be related to the traffic jam. Not only did those who had independent means of transport get caught up in the delays, the buses and other transport for those without independent transportation were immobilized as well.

Texas did a much better job of using med-evac airlift to evacuate hospitals -- both civilian and military airlift assets -- than New Orleans, but I think that is one area where the military could be used earlier and more effectively. I didn't see any mention of the heavier aircraft -- C-141, C-17, C-5 etc -- being used for evacuations, just C-130's.

However, I think that solving the traffic jam problem for those who are mobile would free up a lot of personnel for managing the other aspects of the evacuation better.

One idea that has occured to me that might reduce the congestion is to control the flow by license plte numbers -- the way that even/odd fuel days were used in the seventies for fuel rationing.

If they designated certain time windows and/or certain routes by the last digit (or last two digits) of the license plate number it would at least simplify the task of determining who is supposed to be on the road at any given time.

I haven't explored the ramifications of that idea completely -- like what to do about people who either can't or won't make the required time window or need to take a route other than the one designated for their plate number.

But, using the license plate number would at least divide the exodus into ten or one-hundred easily identifiable segments instead of having to stop and check addresses to determine who is supposed to be on which road at what time.

I would think the nmajor problem with that idea would be this. If I am leaving jackson and you put my liscence plate on 20 east when I am planning on going to my cousin's in Galveston Texas, what am I going to do? I am probably leaving with little cash and re routing over to tuscaloosa, then up to Columbus, across to wynona, then south as close as I can get to jackson before hitting a side road and trying to pick up twenty west at vicksburg is pretty rediculous.

I also doubt people will wait for their number. In jackson at least, if you made 20 & 55 outbound only, both sides, you shouldn't have much trouble. People could still get in or out on 80, 49, 25 or the trace with little trouble.Of course, a lot of it depends on what kind of disaster you are evacuating from.

 

[cantdog]

And that's the rub, in miniature, Colleen, with the 'reforms' we now hear being proposed. It's all one party up there at Foggy Bottom. They're all talking putting the Feds in charge. But the Feds don't know that the corner of third and State is dug up right now and impassible. The Feds don't have the intimate knowledge of the ground to be able to tell where the next set of resources will do the most good.

It's the same as you and your determination to go to Galveston or SJ's plan to go to Oklahoma. There's family there. It really is the very smartest place for you to go, and the same with SJ. If either of you is rerouted elsewhere, you become a burden on someone, but if you can just go where you need to go, you'll be all right.

The old FEMA plans were hammered out over many years in thousands of places. They came up for another revisit every so often, and many times, with a new cast of players in key positions: new fire chief, new police chief, new mandates from new laws, new technologies even, which weren't there the last time the plans were worked out.

The rule of thumb was always to have the ultimate control at the lowest possible level. A plan which sounded good in the state capital, but which sends three times as many patients to a facility than they have beds for, is a plan which will need sudden revision in the field. Local control is superior, and Federal resources are superior.

The thing which makes large scale evacuations a goat fuck makes anything else on that sort of scale a goat fuck, and is the root cause of the 50,000 car fatalities each year. Every person on the road is in charge of his own vehicle and has his own agenda. You can't change that fact with armed dudes at the crossroads.

The ideas about having fueling trucks around-- these are good. Having tow vehicles and wreckers around-- also good. Having a certain proportion of the people you send to the highways responsible for simply cruising up and down the stream of traffic looking for problems is godd. Give 'em radios or cells or something, both even. When they find a diabetic coma they can call the appropriate response. When they find an abandoned car, ditto.

The flow is the thing. If you can maintain some flow, any flow, the routing of it will take place by itself.

 

[Weird Harold]

The flow is the thing. If you can maintain some flow, any flow, the routing of it will take place by itself.

How do you maintain some flow, any flow, without limiting or staging things?

It would be nice if maintaining a flow were compatible with allowing people to go when and where they want/need to go, but I can't see how to make it work without metering the traffic in some way to keep it down to what the roads can handle.

Road-side assistance does seem to be a necessry component -- fuel tankers, tow trucks, etc -- but if the highway is a complete parking lot how does it get where it's needed?