End of the Fifth Party System in the US?

[renard_ruse]

Historians have long divided US political history into five eras they refer to as the Party Systems. A brief summary for those unfamiliar with the concept:

First Party System: Ths system can be considered to have developed as a result of the factions in the George Washington administration. The two factions were Alexander Hamilton and the Federalists and Thomas Jefferson and the Democratic-Republican Party. The Federalists argued for a strong national government with a national bank and a strong economic and industry system. The Democratic-Republicans argued for a limited government, with a more emphasis on farmers and states' rights. After the 1800 Presidential election, the Democratic-Republicans gained major dominance for the next twenty years, and the Federalists slowly died off.

Second Party System: This system developed as a result of the one party rule of the Democratic-Republicans not being able to contain some of the most pressing issues of the time, namely slavery. Out of this system came the Whig Party and Henry Clay's American System. Wealthier people tended to support the Whigs, and the poorer tended to support the Democrats. During the Jacksonian era, his Democrat Party evolved from Democratic-Republicans. The Whig party began to break apart into factions, mainly over the issue of slavery. This period lasted until 1860.

Third Party System: Beginning around the time of the start of the Civil War, this system was defined by bitter conflict and striking party differences and coalitions. These coalitions were most evidently defined by geography. The South was dominated by the Democrats who opposed the ending of slavery, and the North, with the exception of some major political machines, was dominated by the Republicans, who supported ending slavery. This era was a time of extreme industrial and economic expansion. The Third Party System lasted until 1896.

Fourth Party System: This era was defined by Progressivism and immigration, as well as the political aftermath of the American Civil War. Northeastern business supported the Republicans while the South and West supported the Democrats. Immigrant groups were courted by both parties. The Fourth Party System came to an end around 1932.[14]

Fifth Party System: This system was defined by the creation of the New Deal Coalition by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in response to the Great Depression. This coalition supporting new social welfare programs brought together many under-privileged, working class, and minority groups including unions, Catholics, and Jews. It also attracted African-Americans, who had previously largely supported the Republican Party due to Lincoln's freeing of the slaves. This era lasted approximately until 1968.[15]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_system#United_States

Some articles (though not generally scholarly works) have already claimed the Fifth party system ended at some point since the 1960s, though most of these claims are more commentary or partisan opinion rather then based on unbiased reasoning. Some have divided the Fifth Party system into two subparts (1932 to 1968 and 1968 to present), which I think makes more sense.

Based on fairminded criteria I do not believe that the Fifth Party system has ended yet, though we may be seeing a gradual transition to a Sixth Party system at this time (a transition I believe might have begun during the 1992-96 period, though imperceptible at the time and definitely not having germinated yet).

 

[renard_ruse]

Basically, a new Party System comes into being when the major existing parties are suplanted by new parties and/or a realignment of the parties' fundamental ideologies occurs. Generally, just a realignment of which demographic groups or regions support a particular party, when at least a major part of the parties' core ideology remains more or less the same doesn't constitute the emergence of a new Party System.. Thus, the shifts in demographic voting blocks supporting Republicans and Democrats during the 5th Party System, it would seem, should not be considered as having giving birth to a new party system yet. Thus, we would still be in the Fifth Party System which emerged from the New Deal era.

My premise is that a Sixth Party system could in fact be gradually emerging, rather then happening via a revolutionary electoral event (such as 1860, 1896, 1932, etc). All of the other changes in Party Systems have occured not as a mere result of specific cataclismic trigger events but also at times during or after major social / structural changes in American society, though up to this point they have required such an event to facilitate their occurance. There is not necessarily a requirement that such a major trigger event be necessary.

 

[LadyVer]

Can you expand on the 6th party system?

 

[renard_ruse]

In short, and I hate to say this and I know this will be pounced on with obnoxious gloating and glee by many of the LW circle jerk on here, but I believe we could be witnessing the end of conservatism as its been defined since the start of the New Deal.

When I look at the extreme unpopularity of the Republicans, and among much of Generation Y outright hostility toward both the GOP and "conservatism" they associate with it (and among this group I would argue, despite what some in the media say, that's generally for BOTH social and economic "conservatism" ) combined with demographic changes which influence voting trends, it would appear that either the GOP has to either become a carbon copy of the Democrats (and not just on social issues as some in the media disingenously suggest) or become a permanent minority party (as they have become already in many states).

Either way, my prediction (and yes, this is where opinion comes in, duh) is that we will see a new Party System emerge with either a One Party Dominant system (such as, for example, the LDP in Japan was for decades) with one party dominating and opposition parties existing but with no serious shot of winning, or a system with two parties that are sosimilar in policies that they are in effect a one-party system with the main differences being personalities or other superficial factors (which is what many of the self-styled "moderates" seem to want anyway).

Now, this may appear gloomy, yes, but I also predict that this hypothetical Sixth Party System will eventually give way to a Seventh System after a relatively short period of time (a few decades) in which some form of conservatism (perhaps not as we define it today) will rightfully take its place back on the national stage in the transformed America of the mid to latter 21st century. This would happen after some process of assimilation of the majority of Hispanics into (or perhpas becoming) the mainstream (as happened with white ethnics in the 20th century) and no longer needing or wanting to identify with the Democrats as the party of "victims." What the new issues will be, who knows, of course, but certain fundamental questions come up in human life down through the ages and those won't go away in the coming Sixth Party system even if it appears they are settled for a time.

 

[LadyVer]

Interesting. I'd say more but I'm on my droid and I'm tired of the RW haters on Lit.

 

[killallhippies]

huh. someone actually takes renard seriously. weird.