Election Prediction: Bush Wins Big!

amicus

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2000 Events Timeline


2000 Events Timeline - Post-Election
November 7, 2000 - Election Day
7:50 pm The Associated Press declares Vice President Al Gore the victor in Florida, based on Voter News Service projections from exit polls. The major TV networks call Florida for Gore between 7:50 and 8:00pm.
9:30 pm Florida begins to look more uncertain as the vote totals accumulate more in favor of Texas Gov. George Bush. Bush, talking with reporters, says "The networks called this thing awfully early, but the people actually counting the votes are coming up with a different perspective. So we're pretty darn upbeat about things."
10 pm Networks begin retracting the projection that Gore wins Florida; the state reverts to too close to call.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._p...ew_and_timeline_.28Election_Day_and_beyond.29


Bush 53%, 55 Senators

Election Predictions 2004:

Exit poll projections were held back Tuesday night, November 2, 2004 as the Associated Press and Network Media outlets were still stinging from early faulty projections in the 2000 Presidential Election.

First results began to be broadcast at 8:24pm election night with Florida again being the first state to be called but this time for President Bush with exit polls predicting a 54-45 percent margin for the incumbent President.

Results quickly followed from Georgia, North and South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia showing an even larger percentage for the incumbent President.

At 9:17 pm, a flurry of exit poll predictions from several States, including Ohio, confirmed the trend and before the West Coast poll closing time of 11pm Eastern, a majority of media outlets had predicted that President George Walker Bush would be elected to a second term.

A total of 35 states with 348 electoral votes were in the Bush column, while 15 states and the District of Columbia, with 190 electoral votes fell to Senator Kerry.

Republicans also picked up a majority of the contested Senate seats, ending up with a 55-44-1 result and also kept the majority in the House of Representatives.

Bush wins:

Arkansas 6 electoral votes
Arizona 10
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Illinois 21
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Kansas 6
Louisiana 9
Kentucky 8
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nevada 5
Nebraska 5
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
Tennessee 11
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
West Virginia 5
Texas 34
Virginia 13
Utah 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3


Kerry wins:

California 55
Maryland 10
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Washington 11
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Maine 4
Massachusetts 12
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3

In the eight highly contested Senate races, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota, Colorado and Illinois, Republicans swept all but Illinois.



So I write fiction…sue me!

Besides if my predictions are widely inaccurate….you will experience overwhelming joy at my discomfiture….

Amicus the predictable…
 
Maybe he'll just win the 'President Home Game' as his parting gift. I bet we could hook him up with a lifetime supply of Centrum Silver Vitamins too, or a case of 'Don't let the door hit you on the way out' cereal. Ya think? :p
 
What exactly was Al Gore like? I know he was Clinton's no 2, but beyond that I know nothing. My interest in Yank politics was non-existant 4 years ago and I'm wondering what Gore's manifesto was.

The Earl
 
Wish you'd change that glaring avatar...hate the eyes...makes me wanna fight no matter what you say....or perhaps that is the intent?

Gore was mainly picked as Clinton's running mate to make inroads in the South that in past years has been a Republican stronghold.

He claimed to have 'invented' the internet was an Eco-nut...wanted extreme measures to restrict public access to government land...opposed to mining and oil drilling and mining and wrote a book on Ecology.

Other than that was and is the typical liberal, pro abortion, pro gay rights, pro government health care, pro high taxes on business and industry, pro higher minimum wage and in favor of most of the social issues that favor women in the workplace, such as free day care, a 'quota system' like affirmative action for women as the program had applied to African Americans before.

His Presidential campaign in 2000 came across as stiff and somewhat bumbling, and like Kerry, his agenda was mostly anti Bush as the Liberal agenda is far too left for mainstream Americans...

amicus...
 
Gore started off his campaign with a bit of a disadvantage as the Clinton/Lewinsky affair and the subsequent impeachment hearings were fresh in the voters minds. Gore tried to distance himself from Clinton during the campaign, but he's not an inspiring speaker and voters thought him dull and couldn't connect with him.

His wife, Tipper, was famous for the congressional hearings which led to the parental advisory warnings on CDs.
 
I think it's beautiful to have hope. That both sides believe their candidates will win by anything other than squeaky shows amazing levels of optimism that I lost long ago. I don't know about laughing at you. I plan to have an anti-politics orgy on Nov.2 on this board. If you leave your opinions of women and political rants aside, you're fully welcome.

As far as the election, it's between three states as far as I can tell. Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Whoever gets, two of them wins. Kerry looks favored by the Fox News poll to get Penn, so it's really between Ohio and Florida. If Kerry grabs one of those two states, voila, regime change. That's the relaity-based picture. It's not comforting to either side, but as I said before, I'm beyond caring.
 
TheEarl said:
What exactly was Al Gore like? I know he was Clinton's no 2, but beyond that I know nothing. My interest in Yank politics was non-existant 4 years ago and I'm wondering what Gore's manifesto was.

The Earl
He was a deadpan sort of man, informed by a tech background as Carter was. His wife was a very determined crusader for censorship.
 
TheEarl said:
What exactly was Al Gore like? I know he was Clinton's no 2, but beyond that I know nothing. My interest in Yank politics was non-existant 4 years ago and I'm wondering what Gore's manifesto was.
He grew a beard and gained a lot of weight after the election loss. Then he lost the weight and beard and went on Sat. Night Live and totally sent himself up. So now I like him but he's really pretty much a has-been.

Pear :)
 
amicus said:
Wish you'd change that glaring avatar...hate the eyes...makes me wanna fight no matter what you say....or perhaps that is the intent?

Don't worry amicus: The av's just a Halloween thing and'll be gone in a few days. You and me fight anyway, whatever the av. And have fun at it too, unless you resort to surrealist tactics again.

The Earl
 
Gore was a dyed in the wool liberal, but tried to pass himself off as a moderate for the election.

His attempt at appearing moderate backfired on him, and it cost him states that he probably could have won, such as his home state of Tennessee. He didn't win Tenn, or Clinton's home state of Arkansas.

After the election was finalized, Gore made the statement that he was going to go back to Tennessee and mend some fences, literally and figuratively.

Gore wound up going to New Jersey, and Clinton went to New York. So much for trying to be Dixiecrats, eh?

Hell, even Nixon went home after he left office.
 
No Award for Prophecy of Presidential Results

Amicus.

No award for prophecy on the presidential results.



A total of 35 states with 348 electoral votes were in the Bush column, while 15 states and the District of Columbia, with 190 electoral votes fell to Senator Kerry.

{{amicus in italics, except where ALL CAPS}}

Amicus: Bush wins:

{My, pure's, XX where wrong as of 9 am EST Nov 2}


Arkansas 6 electoral votes
Arizona 10
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Georgia 15
[Idaho]
XXIllinois 21
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Kansas 6
Louisiana 9
Kentucky 8
XXMichigan 17
XXMinnesota 10
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nevada 5
Nebraska 5
XXNew Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
Tennessee 11
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
West Virginia 5
[Tennessee]
Texas 34
[Nevada]
Virginia 13
Utah 5
[West Virginia]
XXWisconsin 10
Wyoming 3


Pure: ACTUAL TOTAL in states BUSH LEADING, including OHIO

286 electoral votes
348 predicted

WRONG FOR FIVE STATES, 62 electoral votes


Amicus: Kerry wins: {my, pure's, additions in CAPS}


California 55
ILLINOIS 21
Maryland 10
MICHIGAN 17
MINNESOTA 10
NEW HAMPSHIRE 4
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Washington 11
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Maine 4
Massachusetts 12
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
WISCONSIN. 10


my, pure's, comment:

True Kerry Total 252
Predicted 190

{FIVE STATES ADDED; error of 62 electoral votes}
 
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