Economics thread Yeah you probably won't like it

[Azwed]

Something that I have been thinking about lately and that has also been on the news. With consumer confidence so low before the attack, Wallstreet shut down for 4 or 5 days now and consumer confidence even lower after the attack we are in danger of a real recession now. I know this is not as important as getting the people out of the rubble or donating blood/money. But, we do need to think about the ramifications of what this has done to the economy.


I know this will probably be hard to do and many people simply won't be able to do it, but it should be done. This weekend go out and spend a few hundred dollars that you don't have to. Go to the movies. Buy something new. Buy come CD's, groccries for the next week or so. Just buy some sort of consumable good. Think of it as a grass roots campaign to get the economy rolling after this. If you have stocks don't sell them on Monday. Hold onto them. Hell, there are gonna be alot of bargains come monday morning, so grab up some of the reliable stocks that are going ot be under valued. The trading houses should do there best to keep the market from going into a selling spree, but any help they can get from the average person would help.


If you can't spend a few 100 dollars this weekend then try to spend a little money you normaly wouldn't. I know it will be hard with all that is going on, but getting away from the news for a while be a good thing. Let your mind get diverted for a while. If you see something you like buy it. Nothing wrong with an impulse buy every once in a while and if enough people do it this will stimulate the economy.

I am going to pass this around some and tell my RL friends to do the same. We don't need an ecomomic crisis on our hands to go along with all the other ones.

 

[Azwed]

Bump Bump

 

[CelestialBody]

Better Idea

 

[Azwed]

I said that to CB

 

[lavender]

 

[CelestialBody]

 

[Sweetlola]

I tried to do my part by spending $200 at Gap yesterday. C'mon women... do it for your country!!

On a serious note... I highly agree with Azwed... We shouldn't sit in front of our CNN and let our economy go to shame. It will only hurt us more in the future.

... and that's my $ .02

 

[Azwed]

Best idea. Don't panic. Don't pull your money out of the stock market hastily. Wait. It WILL bounce back. It always does after tragedies such as this. Don't go into a paranoid state about the economy. The economy is based upon consumer perception and action. Stay steady and the economy should stay moderately steady.

hehe I said that too.

 

[Nathon_88]

Tim Hortons is not going under anytime soon. Every night now, there's about 5 or 10 AUC students going there to drink mocha's and shoot the shit.

 

[Azwed]

Bumpty buuuuuuuuump bumpty buuuuuump bump........ bump............. bump.............bump bubbbbbbmmmmmmmmmmmmmmp


heheh my little musical intro.

Don't forget this tomorrow.

Invest if you can and don't sell out if you have stocks.

 

[A_Jacks]

Saw this idea elsewhere, what a dumbass idea. I have been talking about what was going to happen with the economy (Clinton's) since before the election. Americans running out and dumping thier discretionary dollars will have no effect on a world in Recession, except to weaken themselves.

Me and Scotti Pippin put our money in CRC land and slower growing, but secure investment vehicles. Now when we complete this crash and get back to 7,000, then I will go strongly back into mutual funds.

IMHO

 

[Chuckus]

I bought alot of BEER yesterday..........does that count?

 

[Cheyenne]

If you have stocks don't sell them on Monday. Hold onto them. Hell, there are gonna be alot of bargains come monday morning, so grab up some of the reliable stocks that are going ot be under valued. The trading houses should do there best to keep the market from going into a selling spree, but any help they can get from the average person would help.

Yup, that is my plan. I'm doing my part for the economy.

Some of the mutual funds have gone to daily (or several times a day) email updates during this past week about what to expect in the market. Getting those emails alone is almost enough to make people panic, I think! My own broker called to leave the same message you just posted- to remind me that I'm invested for the long run (I remembered) and to suggest we take a look at any potential good stock buys this next week. I agreed to that, too.

 

[Azwed]

Saw this idea elsewhere, what a dumbass idea. I have been talking about what was going to happen with the economy (Clinton's) since before the election. Americans running out and dumping thier discretionary dollars will have no effect on a world in Recession, except to weaken themselves.


IMHO

Then you only read the first few lines of my post and skipped down. If you had read the whole thing you would have seen that I said to invest if you can and hold on to all current investments. Nothing wrong with dumping a little extra money into consumable goods for the short term. The consumer confidence index is one measure alot of economists go by. Granted it would take a while to shore up the index, but every little bit helps. In the future please read posts fully before calling them "dumb ass ideas"

 

[A_Jacks]

Americans are at thier lowest point of personal savings ever historically. Exhorting people to go and and buy means credit cards. Is this really the time to assume debt?

From a self-made millionaire.

 

[A_Jacks]

I did read all your post, I just re-read it and I think most of it is bad financial advice and none of it will change what has been happening since the economy, the country, our industry was terribly over-valued. No amount of consumer confidence can change that. Most companies are still trying to bleed off inventories.

It's a dumbass idea, one I've seen on Fox and a few places and is just an over-reaction in a time of hyperbolic patriotism.

Everyone should hold until the see thier own personal market targets reached as I am doing.

In strategy, it is important to keep a distanced view of near things and a near view of distant things. Musashi.

 

[A_Jacks]

Expert: Russia Knew in Advance, Encouraged Citizens to Cash Out Dollars
Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Monday, September 17, 2001
Russian press accounts and other activities by the Russian government this summer indicate that the Russian knew in advance that something would happen to America, including a "financial attack" against the U.S.
During the past three months, Russian media and officials have encouraged citizens to cash out of U.S. dollars pending an economic collapse there after an "attack."

Currently, the dominant view of the media is that the terrorist actions in New York City and Washington were just a ?thunder bolt from the blue sky.?

Could it be? Yes, a well organized group accomplished these dastardly acts. But just how well organized was it?

Obviously, President Bush and Vice-President Cheney are targeting the powers behind these terrorist groups, the states that give them safe harbor and backing.

Sponsors of state terrorism include Iran, Iraq, Libya, Cuba, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria.

Did you know that all of these countries have very close ties with Russia and her military/intelligence agencies?

Could it be that the Russians actually expected this in advance and even counted on it, discussing the possible consequences?

My suspicions were raised this July and August as I scanned and sifted through all of Russia's major newspapers.

Considering Russia's close ties to these terrorist countries, Russian activities need close scrutiny.

Pravda Wrote of Financial 'Attack' on U.S.

Consider the July 12, 2001 page-one report in Pravda - still considered the establishment voice of Russia's old guard communists who control the military and intelligence agencies.

The Pravda article was entitled "?The Dollar and America Will Fall Down on August 19? ? That?s the Opinion of Dr. Tatyana Koryagina, Who Very [accurately] predicted the August Default in 1998."

This article struck me for several reasons. Major newspapers so closely aligned with the government do not attempt to create panic or fear in the public -- unless the government wants this information to be publicly aired.

Also, a major newspaper would be reluctant to print a major prediction for which it could be held accountable.

This Pravda article was published about the same time as another strange event that took place in early July in the Russian State Duma.

The Duma held a conference entitled "On the measures to provide the development of Russian economy in the environment of destabilization of the world financial system."

The chairman of the Duma Commission on Economic Politics, Dr. Sergei Glazyev, headed the hearings.

Some prominent foreigners, including Lyndon Larouche from the U.S. and Malaysian Ambassador in Russia, Yacha Baba, were among the participants.

Tatyana Koryagina made a statement at the end of hearings ? as a Russian expert in the shadow economy, shadow politics and conspirology.

She is a senior research fellow in the Institute of Macroeconomic Researches subordinated to Russian Ministry of Economic Development (Minekonom). The main theme of the Duma hearings was the rapidly approaching economic crash of the U.S.

The hearings focused on preparing recommendations for President Putin as to what Russia should to do to soften the consequences of this coming catastrophe.

Pravda also detailed its own interview with Dr. Koryagina.

Here is an excerpt:

Question. All the participants at the hearings stated that America is a huge financial pyramid, which will crash soon. Still, it is hard to understand how this could happen in the first and richest country of the world ? without a war, without missile or bomb strikes?

Koryagina: Besides bombs and missiles, there are other kinds of weaponry, much more destructive ones. . . .

Question: Well, economic theory. But how it is possible for you to give an exact date (for the U.S. crash) ? August 19?

Koryagina: The U.S. is engaged in a mortal economic game. The known history of civilization is merely the visible part of the iceberg. There is a shadow economy, shadow politics and also a shadow history, known to conspirologists. There are (unseen) forces acting in the world, unstoppable for (most powerful) countries and even continents.

Question: Just these forces intend to smash America on August 19?

Koryagina:?There are international, "super-state? and "super-government? groups. In accordance with tradition, the mystical and religious components play extremely important roles in human history?One must take into account the shadow economy, shadow politics and the religious component, while predicting the development of the present financial situation. Question. Still I don?t understand what could be done to this giant country [i.e., the U.S.], whose budget is calculated in the trillions of dollars.

Koryagina: It is possible to do anything to the U.S. . . .whose total debt has reached $26 trillion. Generally, the Western economy is at the boiling point now. Shadow financial actives of $300 trillion are hanging over the planet. At any moment, they could fall on any stock exchange and cause panic and crash. The recent crisis in Southeast Asia, which touched Russia, was a rehearsal.

Question: . . .What is the sense of smashing just America?

Koryagina: The U.S. has been chosen as the object of financial attack because the financial center of the planet is located there. The effect will be maximal. The strike waves of economic crisis will spread over the planet instantly, and will remind us of the blast of a huge nuclear bomb. ? Question: Did Russia?s crisis of 1998 have this religious-mystical component?

Koryagina: . . .The Russian crisis of 1998 was preconditioned by internal factors. Yeltsin?s policy enlarged its consequences. Now we have President Putin, and this is a good choice.

Question: What do we have to do now?

Koryagina: Recommendations, compiled by the Duma Commission of Economic Politics after the recent Duma hearings, offer instruction on what should be done to escape the consequences of a world crisis inspired by a financial catastrophe in the U.S. This document will be sent ? or has already been sent ? to President Putin.

Question: What should Russian citizens do?

Koryagina: They should start changing their dollars for rubles. President Putin and the Russian Central Bank are already taking the necessary healthy measures. There are high chances that after 19 August the ruble will become a very good currency.

Question: Why 19 August and, say, not the 21st?

Koryagina: Some fluctuation in this date is possible. Serious forces are acting against THOSE WHO ARE NOW PREPARING THE ATTACK ON THE UNITED STATES. August, with very high probability, will bring the financial catastrophe to the U.S. . . .The last 10 days of August have especial importance from a religious-sensible point of view.

It is important to note this story was not an isolated one, or a cute, human interest story as one may find occasionally on the cover of the Wall Street Journal.

It was a serious news report, and story, dicussed widely in Russia, including on national TV programs. The thrust of the story was that Russian officials were strongly encouraging its citizens to cash out of the U.S. dollar.

It is also important to understand that Dr. Koryagina is one of the leading economists in a Russian social group which, from the very beginning, has fiercely opposed "radical economic reform? in Russia. She is a firm supporter of President Putin.

She and her network actively support Putin, especially his foreign policy aimed at the diminishing America?s global role.

In particular, they support Putin?s policy of engagement of Iran, Iraq and other nations of concern. Dr. Koryagina herself should be considered as an insightful, well-connected and well-informed person.

Dr. Koryagina says much about the invisible and unstoppable "international mystical-religious forces? preparing an attack on the U.S.

It looks like she knows the real nature of these forces and tries to disguise them in a "conspiratorial fog.?

She is sure that such an attack or strike of some kind ? sudden and effective enough - will really take place, and will cause panic and an ensuing crash of the U.S. financial system and the world financial system, already unstable. However, Dr. Koryagina evidently does not know the exact mechanism of the attack.

Duma Warned Citizens to Cash out Dollars

The hearings in the Duma, which has become a rubber stump for President Putin, have been inspired without doubt by the Kremlin, "taking the necessary healthy measures? in advance of a U.S. crash and world crisis.

The Kremlin clearly is thinking how it should operate in the "new world? after the expected U.S. crash.

It is my belief that the Kremlin provided Dr. Koryagina with a very small part of its information on the forthcoming attack against the U.S.

Another article on this same theme was published by Pravda on July 17, 2001.

It was an interview with the Chairman of the Duma Commission on Economic Politics Dr. Sergei Glazyev--indeed, one of the most prominent Russian economists.

The article was entitled "The Dollar and the U.S. Could Fall at Any Moment.?

Dr. Glazyev, in his answers, did not mention the forces preparing an attack on the U.S. and its financial system.

He merely discussed the forms and scales of the forthcoming financial catastrophe in the U.S. and its consequences for Russia ? mostly, beneficial ones if the necessary measures are taken in advance.

In particularly, like Dr. Koryagina, Dr. Glazyev advised the Russian public to change dollars for rubles and predicted that "the ruble will become the reserve currency for Eurasia, particularly in trade with China and India.?

Third Article, More Media

Pravda published a third article on this theme on 31 July ? 1 August 2001. This article was called "The Dollar and the U.S. Will Fall" and compiled in the form of an interview with the Malaysian Ambassador in Russia.

Other Moscow newspapers published articles of this kind also.

As a result, New York?s Russian-language TV channel in early August was forced to state that "the Moscow rumors are ungrounded.? Within a few days the public forgot all about this story.

The tone of Moscow economists predicting the crash of the U.S. financial-economic system is confident and somewhat delightful: "Finally, it is going to happen!?

They are not only discussing the future, they are evidently trying to issue a self-fulfilling prophecy transforming this future into the present. This is because the prospects described in the above articles are extremely attractive for the Russian elite for the following reasons:

a) It will become possible to pay off Russia?s huge foreign debts with devalued dollars; it would be really easy enough if oil prices jumped to $100 per barrel or more.

b) Russia would become really equal among a weakened G-8 group of nations.

c) Investment conditions in Russia would become really attractive ? in comparison to the bleak global background. Russia could become the goal of huge foreign investment.

d) If the U.S. military might is undermined (and it might be, if the financial system collapses), Russia will regain its control over the former Soviet republics, spread it to the Balkans and will reacquire its former super-empire status.

Such a prize, such a temptation for the criminal Russian "elite?! One small push, and such great booty! While reading these articles, it is almost possible to visualize how they are licking their lips with excitement.

So, those in Moscow had very serious reasons not to share information with the U.S. about the coming attack on the latter?if they indeed had such information.

Very likely, they did, and the maximum amount of information was concentrated in Kremlin. According to numerous statements published by prominent U.S. economists after the tragedy, the time and places of the attacks were chosen--more precisely, pretty well calculated, as if the terrorists or those backing them had tried to do their best to undermine the U.S. financial system and political system and to cause a financial-economic crisis in the U.S.

There is some evidence that one jet, a TWA plane at JFK Airport, did not take off and perhaps another crash was thwarted. Was it intended for the New York Stock Exchange?

"It wasn't a healthy economy to begin with, and this could be just enough to push us into a mild recession and render a blow to consumer confidence," one of these economists told the UPI.

He continued: "There has been a complete disruption of passenger flights. Besides the airline industry, tourism, retail and the shipping sectors will feel the negative effects of Tuesday's attack. Tougher security measures now in place at the nation's airports will increase shipping and travel expenses that will be passed along to the consumer.?

And the consumer confidence index, low already, declined additionally.

However, those in Moscow very probably waited for much greater effects.

Remarkably, immediately after the events in New York and Washington -- at approximately 6 P.M. Moscow time -- the dollar exchange rate in Moscow street exchanges fell from 29 rubles to 15-20 rubles--as if the Moscow financial experts had awaited the strikes or expected greater panic and collapse.

It is important to note that such a great fluctuation in the exchange rate happened in no other world capital. The next day, the dollar in Moscow gradually returned to its previous exchange rate.

A network of terrorists groups ? mostly in the U.S. and Middle East -- were merely the fingers implementing the terrorist strikes.

After all, Arab terrorists groups are supported by rogue nations --Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Sudan.

These countries are "hands.?

U.S. Needs to Look at Source

Now, if the U.S. and NATO forces carry out retaliatory strikes on Afghanistan, the "hands? will be punished.

And where is the body, the heart of the beast?

And who provides the advanced military technology--including that needed for "special actions"--to these nations of concern? Who supports them in the UN? After all, who demonstrates daily the desire to diminish or undermine America?s global influence?

Moscow and Beijing. And Moscow, probably, is even more evil and impudent. Let us think about the Moscow rulers.

Yes, of course, Putin immediately sent condolences to President Bush and the American people.

It should be taken into account here that, in September 1999 Putin consummately used the apartment explosions in Moscow and Volgodonsk (KGB-organized actions, in the opinion of most of the Russian media and in the opinion of the author) to gain supreme power in Russia.

Now the Kremlin is making statements about a "joint struggle against world terrorism,? about "the ties between the actions in New York and the actions in Moscow in September 1999.?

Indeed, these are probably closely tied to one another, and the same forces are remaining behind the actions in New York and in Moscow. But what is the real name of these forces? The investigation should go to the bottom of the barrel and provide the proper answer.

Editor's note: NewsMax columnist, Col. Stanislav Lunev, has warned of Russia's plans against the U.S. NewsMax has just published his audiotape set calle "CIA Files." Click here for more info.

Dr. Nemets is a consultant to Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) and American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC). An expert in Chinese-Russian strategic-military alliance development, he has spent the last several years researching Chinese and Russian economic and military issues. Dr. Nemets worked from 1986-92 at the Presidium of Russian Academy of Sciences. He immigrated to the United States in December 1994.