Even in minority status, the Republican Party could play a useful civic role as a party-in-loyal-opposition, providing constructive criticism of Democratic policies without the kind of cynical obstructionism they showed in the Clinton years. It is a role they have played in the past, when the party was led by moderates such as the Rockefeller Republicans -- and even, by modern standards, Nixon -- before the ideological conservative movement took it over in a process starting with the 1964 Goldwater campaign and culminating with Reagan's triumph in 1980. The Pubs could play such a role again.
But that's not the way the party is tending. In the ongoing flap between Rush Limbaugh and David Frum, discussed in this thread, Frum is offering rational, measured alternatives to Limbaugh's "aggressive and bombastic, cutting and sarcastic" approach (which is still rational compared to what I read here every day from busybody, vetteman, off2bed, etc.).
Well, what's wrong, from a conservative POV, with any of that? Yet this fixation on common sense is about to get Frum read out of the conservative movement, or so say the Freepers. American hard-righters, or at least those on FR and on the Lit GB -- and Rush's dittohead audience -- appear to have a lot in common with Communists, in being so firmly and deeply convinced of the rightness of their positions that they are oblivious or self-deceived as to how far those views are minority views in America today. Frum is not so deceived:
If the Republican Party goes Frum's way it has at least a chance of regaining relevance and playing a valuable role in American government. If it goes Limbaugh's way, the CPAC way, which appears more and more likely, it will only continue to decline while becoming ever more shrill and strident and useless and annoying. Hard-right Pubs will defeat moderates in the primaries and get creamed in the general election, over and over and over. As a liberal I guess I should be glad to see the GOP working so hard to remain irrelevant, but it's still a sad thing to watch. I believe a vibrant two-party system is inherently better than a de facto one-party system (and a multi-party system is better still, but that's another discussion).
You, RW Litsters, are not helping that situation one little bit by demonizing Democrats and liberals and even moderates. You are not helping it by repeatedly screaming that Obama is a socialist, or that he was not really born in the U.S., or that he bears comparison with Hitler or Stalin, or that he might be the Antichrist, or that any compromise or cooperation or accommodation with the Dems makes a Republican a RINO who should be driven out of office.
But that's not the way the party is tending. In the ongoing flap between Rush Limbaugh and David Frum, discussed in this thread, Frum is offering rational, measured alternatives to Limbaugh's "aggressive and bombastic, cutting and sarcastic" approach (which is still rational compared to what I read here every day from busybody, vetteman, off2bed, etc.).
Look at America's public-policy problems, look at voting trends, and it's inescapably obvious that the Republican Party needs to evolve. We need to put free-market health-care reform, not tax cuts, at the core of our economic message. It's health-care costs that are crushing middle-class incomes. Between 2000 and 2006, the amount that employers paid for labor rose substantially. Employees got none of that money; all of it was absorbed by rising health-care costs. Meanwhile, the income-tax cuts offered by Republicans interest fewer and fewer people: before the recession, two thirds of American workers paid more in payroll taxes than in income taxes.
We need to modulate our social conservatism (not jettison—modulate). The GOP will remain a predominantly conservative party and a predominantly pro-life party. But especially on gay-rights issues, the under-30 generation has arrived at a new consensus. Our party seems to be running to govern a country that no longer exists. The rule that both our presidential and vice presidential candidates must always be pro-life has become counterproductive: McCain's only hope of winning the presidency in 2008 was to carry Pennsylvania, and yet Pennsylvania's most successful Republican vote winner, former governor Tom Ridge, was barred from the ticket because he's pro-choice.
We need an environmental message. You don't have to accept Al Gore's predictions of imminent gloom to accept that it cannot be healthy to pump gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. We are rightly mistrustful of liberal environmentalist disrespect for property rights. But property owners also care about property values, about conservation, and as a party of property owners we should be taking those values more seriously.
Above all, we need to take governing seriously again. Voters have long associated Democrats with corrupt urban machines, Republicans with personal integrity and fiscal responsibility. Even ultraliberal states like Massachusetts would elect Republican governors like Frank Sargent, Leverett Saltonstall, William Weld and Mitt Romney precisely to keep an austere eye on the depredations of Democratic legislators. After Iraq, Katrina and Harriet Miers, Democrats surged to a five-to-three advantage on the competence and ethics questions. And that was before we put Sarah Palin on our national ticket.
Well, what's wrong, from a conservative POV, with any of that? Yet this fixation on common sense is about to get Frum read out of the conservative movement, or so say the Freepers. American hard-righters, or at least those on FR and on the Lit GB -- and Rush's dittohead audience -- appear to have a lot in common with Communists, in being so firmly and deeply convinced of the rightness of their positions that they are oblivious or self-deceived as to how far those views are minority views in America today. Frum is not so deceived:
Even before the November 2008 defeat—even before the financial crisis and the congressional elections of November 2006—it was already apparent that the Republican Party and the conservative movement were in deep trouble. And not just because of Iraq, either (although Iraq obviously did not help).
At the peak of the Bush boom in 2007, the typical American worker was earning barely more after inflation than the typical American worker had earned in 2000. Out of those flat earnings, that worker was paying more for food, energy and out-of-pocket costs of health care. Political parties that do not deliver economic improvement for the typical person do not get reelected. We Republicans and conservatives were not delivering. The reasons for our failure are complex and controversial, but the consequences are not.
We lost the presidency in 2008. In 2006 and 2008, together, we lost 51 seats in the House and 14 in the Senate. Even in 2004, President Bush won reelection by the narrowest margin of any reelected president in American history.
The trends below those vote totals were even more alarming. Republicans have never done well among the poor and the nonwhite—and as the country's Hispanic population grows, so, too, do those groups. More ominously, Republicans are losing their appeal to voters with whom they've historically done well.
In 1988 George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis among college graduates by 25 points. Nothing unusual there: Republicans have owned the college-graduate vote. But in 1992 Ross Perot led an exodus of the college-educated out of the GOP, and they never fully returned. In 2008 Obama beat John McCain among college graduates by 8 points, the first Democratic win among B.A. holders since exit polling began.
Political strategists used to talk about a GOP "lock" on the presidency because of the Republican hold on the big Sun Belt states: California, Texas, Florida. Republicans won California in every presidential election from 1952 through 1988 (except the Goldwater disaster of 1964). Democrats have won California in the five consecutive presidential elections since 1988.
In 1984 Reagan won young voters by 20 points; the elder Bush won voters under 30 again in 1988. Since that year, the Democrats have won the under-30 vote in five consecutive presidential elections. Voters who turned 20 between 2000 and 2005 are the most lopsidedly Democratic age cohort in the electorate. If they eat right, exercise and wear seat belts, they will be voting against George W. Bush well into the 2060s.
Between 2004 and 2008, Democrats more than doubled their party-identification advantage in Pennsylvania. A survey of party switchers in the state found that a majority of the reaffiliating voters had belonged to the GOP for 20 years or more. They were educated and affluent. More than half of those who left stated that the GOP had become too extreme.
If the Republican Party goes Frum's way it has at least a chance of regaining relevance and playing a valuable role in American government. If it goes Limbaugh's way, the CPAC way, which appears more and more likely, it will only continue to decline while becoming ever more shrill and strident and useless and annoying. Hard-right Pubs will defeat moderates in the primaries and get creamed in the general election, over and over and over. As a liberal I guess I should be glad to see the GOP working so hard to remain irrelevant, but it's still a sad thing to watch. I believe a vibrant two-party system is inherently better than a de facto one-party system (and a multi-party system is better still, but that's another discussion).
You, RW Litsters, are not helping that situation one little bit by demonizing Democrats and liberals and even moderates. You are not helping it by repeatedly screaming that Obama is a socialist, or that he was not really born in the U.S., or that he bears comparison with Hitler or Stalin, or that he might be the Antichrist, or that any compromise or cooperation or accommodation with the Dems makes a Republican a RINO who should be driven out of office.