Capturing Saddam major achievement, but won't directly affect the election

[Pookie]

POLL ANALYSES

December 15, 2003

Americans Consider Saddam Capture "Major Achievement," but War Support Unchanged

Most Americans say capture won't affect their vote for president


by Frank Newport
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Questions and answers about the impact of Saddam Hussein's capture on American public opinion, based on the results of a special instant-reaction CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted on Sunday, Dec. 14:

1. Do Americans view the capture of Saddam Hussein as a significant achievement?

Yes. More than 8 out of 10 Americans consider Hussein's capture to be a major achievement for the United States, and only 6% say that it is not an achievement at all:

As you may know, U.S. soldiers captured Saddam Hussein in Iraq early this morning. Do you consider finding Saddam Hussein to be a major achievement for the United States, a minor achievement, or not an achievement at all?

Major achievement - 82%
Minor achievement - 11
Not an achievement at all - 6
No opinion - 1


2. Will the capture increase the public's overall support for the war in Iraq?

Not necessarily. Despite the public's willingness to agree that Hussein's capture is a major achievement for the United States, the Sunday poll shows no immediate evidence that there will be a substantial increase in the percentage of Americans who agree with the basic premise of the war.

It's important to note that support for the war had been steadily increasing in the weeks and months leading up to Sunday's capture of Hussein. The percentage of the public who felt that the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over had increased from 50% in September to 59% in the Dec. 5-7 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Sunday's special instant-reaction poll shows just a slight three-point increase, to 62%, well within the polls' margins of error.

At the same time, the percentage of Americans saying that the situation was not worth going to war over has dropped to 33%, which is the lowest on that measure since April of this year.

It's possible that some Americans were not yet fully aware of the capture of Hussein at the time of the interviewing on Sunday. Still, the very modest increase in the number of Americans who feel the war was worth it suggests that the long-term impact of Hussein's capture may not be as significant as some might think.


3. Will the capture increase Americans' confidence that outcomes such as the establishment of a democratic government in Iraq and finding weapons of mass destruction will occur?

The Sunday poll indicated an immediate, although not dramatic, increase in the confidence of the American public that several of these types of positive outcomes will be forthcoming. Compared to the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of a week ago, the percentage of Americans who believe that weapons of mass destruction will be found in Iraq, that a stable government will be established there, and that the attacks against U.S. soldiers will be stopped all increased by 12-13 percentage points. (These questions, like the "worth going to war question" reviewed above, were asked in the Sunday poll before the respondents had been reminded of the capture of Hussein.)

The biggest increase came in the public's confidence that Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed. Perhaps heartened by the fact that the capture of such "leaders on the run" is possible, the percentage of Americans who are very or somewhat confident that bin Laden will be captured increased by 27 percentage points.


4. Do Americans believe that capturing Hussein will have the impact of decreasing terrorist attacks on American troops within Iraq?

There are some signs in the Sunday poll that Americans believe the capture will reduce the attacks against U.S. soldiers, but almost no Americans -- 2% -- believe the attacks will stop altogether as a result of Hussein's imprisonment. Seven out of 10 Americans believe there will be at least a minor drop in American combat deaths, while about a quarter of Americans say there will not be a change at all.


5. How and when do Americans believe Hussein should be tried, and is there support for his receiving the death penalty?

Initial news reports on Sunday indicated that Iraq's Governing Council (appointed by the United States) has declared its intentions of being the judicial body that prosecutes Hussein for his years of reported murder and torture. The details of just how and when the former Iraqi leader will be tried are still being worked out, and there is the possibility that the judicial body will include at least some international presence.

The American public, reacting to three choices for the forthcoming trial of Hussein, is most in favor of what was described as an "international court, applying international laws and legal standards," preferred by 48% of those interviewed. About one-quarter of respondents chose each of the other two alternatives: an Iraqi court using Iraqi judges, or a U.S. military court or military tribunal.

Six out of 10 Americans recommend the death penalty for Hussein if he is tried and found guilty, while almost all of the rest would settle for his having to spend life in prison with no chance of parole.

The views of the American public on the appropriateness of the death penalty for Hussein are little different from its views on the death penalty more generally. In May of this year, for example, 53% of Americans said in general they believe the death penalty is the better punishment for murder, while 34% opted for a "life imprisonment, with absolutely no possibility of parole" alternative -- remarkably similar to the results of the Sunday poll, which asked about the death penalty in this specific case:


6. What are the implications of Hussein's capture for Election 2004?

Too soon to tell. There has already been a great deal of speculation about the possible impact of Sunday's events on President Bush's re-election chances, and the possibility that the capture may harm the position of the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, former Vt. Gov. Howard Dean, who has built a good deal of his campaign on criticism of the war in Iraq.

But, of course, it's much too early to begin to determine the long-term political implications of Sunday's events in Iraq on the 2004 presidential election on a strictly empirical basis. Public opinion surveys in the coming weeks will begin to give us a better feel for the implications of this capture on the political landscape, and indeed to answer the broad question of whether it will have any lasting impact at all. And, when the first Democratic votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses of Jan. 19, to be followed within 8 days by the New Hampshire primary and then the important set of Feb. 3 primaries, the impact on the Democratic race will become clearer still.

The Sunday CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll did include one basic question designed to tap into Americans' immediate feelings about the capture's impact on their potential vote for Bush in the forthcoming presidential election.

The results show that most Americans say the capture won't affect their vote: 45% of those interviewed said they were planning on voting for Bush even before the capture, while almost as many, 43% said they were planning not to vote for Bush and that the capture would not change their opinion. That leaves just 3% of Americans whose immediate reaction was to admit that they have become more likely to vote for Bush as a direct result of the capture of Hussein:

These types of "instant trends" do not necessarily predict the actual, long-term impact of an event, particularly because many of those interviewed had hardly had time to ponder the capture, much less its impact on their vote 11 months from now. But the fact that there is no immediate self-awareness of a change in position on Bush suggests the need for caution in assumptions that Sunday's events are going to recast the election in any substantial way.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031215.asp

While 8 out of 10 think the capture of Saddam was a major achievement, only 3 percent of Americans said it would now cause them to vote for Bush, with the remainder having already planned to vote/not vote for Bush. It appears that attitudes about the war won't change because of the capture.

What still may haunt Bush though is that 54% (up 13% at time of capture) still think that WMDs will be found. If WMDs are not found in the coming months, this alone could cause Bush's popularity to decline ... and the polls are, basically, evenly split now. Bush may have to depend on a recovering economy after all.

 

[SleepingWarrior]

Thats the way it should be. Every voter should look at his complete record of action/inaction and judge him compared to his opponent before casting their vote for either person.

 

[P. B. Walker]

I think it's way too early to be wondering if this will impact the election. Bush still has some very tough months ahead of him. Now, if we catch Osama, the economy has a really big upturn, and the attacks in Iraq settle down, and we start bring some troops home, then I think Bush has a decent shot with many people.

The people that have already decided to vote for/against Bush in the next election no matter what happens between now and then will not win or lose the election for him. I think those people are outnumbered by the number of people who have an open mind and have not made up their minds yet.