Britain/Scotland Breakup! Who gets the kids?

[3113]

Now why didn't any of you Brits (or Scots!) tell us ignorant Americans you were thinking of getting divorced?

Behind Scotland vote jitters: Costly divorce from Britain

BLAIR ATHOLL, Scotland -- As Scotland's biggest election in decades approaches, Alistair MacKay seems to embody the mixed mood of voters in this antique village where the local duke still commands the only legal private army in Europe.

MacKay said he probably would give his vote to the Scottish National Party, or SNP, because "they're more in line with my thinking" and "they know how to get things done."

But on the big question of a Scottish divorce from Britain, which the SNP favors, MacKay pondered a moment. "I'm not there yet," said the retired power company engineer. "But I'm starting to come around to it."

Scotland votes in local elections May 3, and if the polls hold, the SNP is on course for a historic upset of the ruling Labor Party, which has dominated elections in Scotland for more than 50 years. The centerpiece of the SNP's platform is the establishment of a fully independent Scotland. But while recent opinion polls show the SNP winning up to 50 of the 129 seats in the next Scottish Parliament -- seven more than Labor -- the polls also indicate that only about 27 percent of Scottish voters are ready to end the 300-year-old union with England.

That's a retreat from late last year when several polls indicated, for the first time, a majority of Scots in favor of independence. The falloff may reflect MacKay's touch of hesitation now that it looks as though the SNP soon will be running local government in Scotland.

To calm those jitters, the SNP, which has been around since 1934, says it will seek to prove its competence over the next three years before proposing a referendum on independence in 2010.

That there is serious talk about breaking up Britain is one of the unintended consequences of the European Union's drive for "an ever-closer union."

"Ireland, Norway and Iceland -- all became independent within the last 100 years, and all three are in the top six of the wealthiest nations according to the OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] rankings," said John Swinney, 43, the SNP incumbent in the Perthshire district where MacKay lives.

"The EU really has been quite helpful in making the case for small independent nations," said Swinney, who joined the SNP at age 15 and served as its leader from 2000 until 2004. "You can go to Brussels or Strasbourg and see the optimism and confidence of the former communist countries that have found their rightful place in the EU," he said.

With a population of 5 million (compared to 60 million for the whole of the United Kingdom), Scotland would rank 20th among the EU's present 27 members, ahead of Ireland and just behind Finland.

One argument against Scottish independence that Swinney encounters is that Scotland would lose the power and influence of Britain weighing in on its behalf in European councils. "Ireland and Denmark have no problem protecting their interests," he answers. "Luxembourg and Malta are exercising more influence in the EU than Scotland."

He could add that Britain's growing Euro-skepticism and its unwillingness to adopt the Euro currency have not served Scotland's interests. Scotland represents the puzzling case of a country that should be wealthy but somehow isn't. It has a well-educated workforce, a host of top-tier universities and a tradition of enterprise and industry. It has a well-established tourism sector. It is justly famous for its whiskey, woolens and beef. And, above all, it has North Sea oil.

But on Britain's balance sheet, Scotland is a deadbeat, a $23 billion annual drain on the national treasury. Government figures show a $3,000 per-head differential in public spending between Scotland and England -- a source of resentment on both sides of the border.

In their increasingly panicky efforts to stop the SNP surge, the Labor Party has come up with a new slogan: "Break up Britain. End up Broke." Prime Minister Tony Blair, campaigning in Edinburgh recently, warned that Scotland would face "economic isolation" if it broke with Britain. Scare tactics have worked in the past, but this time they seem to be backfiring. Scots say they are fed up being portrayed as slackers or underachievers dependent on handouts from London.

"If that number [$23 billion] is correct, that's 12 percent of GDP. No country in the world -- with the exception of Iraq -- has a deficit on that order," Swinney said. "People are not stupid, they visit other countries, they know what an economic basket case is -- and they know it's not Scotland."

Maybe it's time for some couple's counseling?

 

[kendo1]

Opinion is divided on separation. I suspect the turnout for the elections will be below 40% again. We have this marvellous freedom to vote and no-one bothers.(I will)

I'm also sceptical on the $23 billion figure. Edinburgh is a financial centre too, not just London. Consider the profits made by Scottish banks - some of the highest profits made in the world, they put some smaller countries GDP to shame.

 

[3113]

Opinion is divided on separation. I suspect the turnout for the elections will be below 40% again. We have this marvellous freedom to vote and no-one bothers.(I will)

I'm also sceptical on the $23 billion figure. Edinburgh is a financial centre too, not just London. Consider the profits made by Scottish banks - some of the highest profits made in the world, they put some smaller countries GDP to shame.

Soooo? (glancing both ways and whispering) Are you in favor of separation?

 

[kendo1]

Soooo? (glancing both ways and whispering) Are you in favor of separation?

I'm happy with the current setup.

But I'll go with the majority. I'm easy.

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

I think the UK makes more sense than a separate Scotland, in terms of combined economic and political power, but Scotland wouldn't be destitute without England, or vice versa. It wouldn't be a tragedy. They would have to figure out what kind of country they want to be, however, if they do that.

A Scots Constitutional Convention? What would that look like? Well, Scotland was a sovereign nation for most of its history. It wouldn't be the end of the world. It would reduce England's influence, but England was a power before the Act of Union and would still be one.

Still, I'm personally attracted more to the idea of the isle of Britain being under one flag.

So, would Scotland be a monarchy or a republic?

 

[kendo1]

President Alex Salmond?

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

Sir Sean Connery would be my preference, but then, I'm only part Scots. Like a fifth Scots or something like that.

 

[TheEarl]

I'm in favour of an independent Scotland and, for that matter, an independent Wales too. It's really the only sensible solution after the fiasco of the separate Parliaments and the complete idiocy of ignoring the West Lothian question.

You cannot have your cake and eat it; Scotland cannot be independent in some ways and tethered in others. Either the UK needs to work as a whole, with one set of laws and one bureaucracy, or it must separate. Otherwise you end up with situations as ridiculous as Labour calling in Scottish MPs to vote on a law on university top-up fees, which did not affect their constituents as the same issue had been rejected in Scotland already. The law passed, affecting only English students, simply because Scottish MPs got to vote for something which they'd turned down when it applied to them. The same occurred on a winter heating bill; we decided that we couldn't afford the subsidies due to our high population, whilst Scotland announced that they could afford it for their 5 million, especially since they'd be dipping into the tax funds collected from 60 million Englishmen.

We'll miss the North Sea Oil and the Olympic cycling medals, but it's already been made perfectly clear that you guys want shot of us, so goodbye and good luck. Have fun on your own.

The Earl

 

[3113]

Well? Britain? Scotland? What was the vote? Are you guys still together or splitting up?

 

[The_Fool]

Who gets the Whisky???

 

[ChristopherMaxwell]

Who gets the Whisky???

That is my question as well.

 

[neonlyte]

Well? Britain? Scotland? What was the vote? Are you guys still together or splitting up?

Be a good few hours before there is a result... no instant counts in the UK. More worrying is the likelyhood of a Scot being Prime Minister of the UK before the year is out. Just where will his allegience lay?

I'm personally much more concerned with the French Presidential election, looks like the right wing candidate Sarkozy is going to squeeze in - could spell trouble ahead with the minorities.

 

[ChristopherMaxwell]

Be a good few hours before there is a result... no instant counts in the UK. More worrying is the likelyhood of a Scot being Prime Minister of the UK before the year is out. Just where will his allegience lay?

I'm personally much more concerned with the French Presidential election, looks like the right wing candidate Sarkozy is going to squeeze in - could spell trouble ahead with the minorities.

Just how right-wing is this bloke?

 

[3113]

Be a good few hours before there is a result... no instant counts in the UK. More worrying is the likelyhood of a Scot being Prime Minister of the UK before the year is out. Just where will his allegience lay?

I'm not British, but I think a Scot Prime Minster would be cool! It's the brogue. I can just imagine him/her chewing out George W.

 

[neonlyte]

Just how right-wing is this bloke?

He was Interior Minister last year during the riots, called the rioters 'rabble and scum'. Every step he took worsened the situation. He's against Islamic dress code, against immigration, and for deportation of unemloyed immigrant youths. He's also a staunch protectionist of French economy by state intervention. Models himself on Tony Blair - how right wing do you want him?

 

[ChristopherMaxwell]

He was Interior Minister last year during the riots, called the rioters 'rabble and scum'. Every step he took worsened the situation. He's against Islamic dress code, against immigration, and for deportation of unemloyed immigrant youths. He's also a staunch protectionist of French economy by state intervention. Models himself on Tony Blair - how right wing do you want him?

Just your standard clerico-Fascist, then? Bloody hell, I thought that rubbish ended with Le Pen's defeat 5 years ago. Incidentally, shouldn't the election wait another two years? According to the French Constitution, the presidential term is supposed to be 7 years.

What about his opponent? Are the French having to deal with a radical leftist and a radical rightist, with no centrist voice? If so, what a dilemma!

 

[3113]

What about his opponent? Are the French having to deal with a radical leftist and a radical rightist, with no centrist voice? If so, what a dilemma!

This is what the L.A. Times says about her:

France's Royal relishes the role of underdog

She is cold, authoritarian and a bully. She's ambitious yet a lightweight without the gravitas to head a nuclear state. She is a "conduit without content," nicknamed Egolene, the aspiring Joan of Arc.

And that is from her friends on the left.

Even before her opponent on the right, Nicolas Sarkozy, could take her on, the leaders of Royal's Socialist Party were maligning her. On the eve of the first round of voting last month, two Socialist "elephants," as the barons of her party are called, stood behind Royal at a speech and could be heard snickering.

But being attacked by the elites and establishment isn't the worst thing to happen to a candidate — especially to a woman who projects herself as the embodiment of change in a France troubled by a stalled economy and social unrest. In these final days of the campaign, most polls have Sarkozy beating her by a slim margin, but the 53-year-old French colonel's daughter with the radiant smile has always done best as an underdog, an image she actively cultivates as a woman in a political world dominated by men.

Her program — such as it is — is a complicated amalgam of left ($35 billion in new state spending), right (mandatory military service for delinquents) and center (students would be paid, but must tutor). Her message is simpler: Politics has to be flexible, and with a brave and practical mother running the country, everything will be fine. She has no big historical vision, no cohesive economic program to fit on bumper stickers. What she has is an image that breaks with the past.

"There is a big gap between the political elite and the French people, and Segolene Royal knows how to close that gap," said Jean-Pierre Bel, a Socialist Party leader who wasn't an initial fan but has become a convert. "She's very simple, very real. She touches people." In speeches, Royal often acknowledges her willingness to go it alone with the public. "I am a free woman the way you are a free people."

As if words could rouse the country, she bathes her listeners in optimism: She would "conciliate" and "respect," "build compromises" and "create social dialogue." She laments the prospect of a "brutal" France, a not-so-subtle strike at Sarkozy's sometimes harsh rhetoric.

Last week when a television journalist tried to trip her up with a technical question about her often-vague economic policies, she gave a curt response as if she couldn't be bothered and went on to address viewers directly: "I'm a concrete practical woman who believes in the intelligence of people."

Her attempt at private communication with audiences was never as evident as when she was asked about Sarkozy's best quality. "He knows everything," she said with just a trace of a smile on her face. Hearing this, 400 young entrepreneurs, watching her on a giant screen in the Marais district of Paris, began hooting and applauding.

"She gets it," said Mehdi Benhabri, who works in the mayor's office. "She tells it to us straight. She uplifts us."

The French are famously gloomy and apparently need uplifting these days. Last week, a poll showed that Germans, Italians and Spaniards all had better impressions of France and its people than the French have of their country and themselves. Royal seeks to counter that gloom with what several people that night in the Marais described as her "smiling tenacity."

That tenacity has deep roots. She was born in Dakar, Senegal, and raised in a family of three girls and five boys in a small French village. (She spent a summer in Ireland as a nanny and reportedly spoke excellent English.) As a teen, Marie-Segolene dropped the Marie as one of many small acts of rebellion against a strict Roman Catholic upbringing designed by her father, Jacques, who by her account treated daughters like lesser beings.

When her parents divorced, it was Segolene, then a 19-year-old law student, who dragged Jacques to court to force him to pay support and for his children's education. He died at age 60 of lung cancer, but not before losing the suit. Segolene proved the colonel wrong about the capabilities of women when she went to study in the capital...at the ultimate school for the French political elite, the National School of Administration, or ENA.

There, she met the usual crop of future CEOs and politicians, as well as Francois Hollande. Three decades later, the two remain partners, never married (by her choice), but the parents of four children, ages 15 to 23...."She was always, frankly, in the shadow of [Hollande] until one day she said, 'OK, it's finally me,' " says Bernard Kouchner, co-founder of Doctors Without Borders, who worked with her when they both held Cabinet posts. (He found her "rigid, not collegial" but insists she's been "transformed by the competition.")

Socialist leader Bel recalled a meeting in 1997 to discuss which party member would lead in the National Assembly. Royal said she wanted the job. Hollande, according to Bel, said, "No, it isn't the right time — the position was meant for someone else," but she made a bid anyway. She lost, but from then on, Bel said, "We knew we'd hear from her."

In 2004, Royal ran against a personal friend of the prime minister to become the only female head of a region...A year later she announced...that she was running for president. Bel was in the Senate the day it was published. "People were amused, disbelieving, mocking, even irritated…. They thought she was a fad," he said.

Royal had concentrated on issues that seemed marginal in Paris salons — where economic theories and the future of Europe are paramount; instead, Royal was troubled by school hazing and the effect of television violence on children and went on daytime TV to discuss it.

"Her vocabulary isn't our vocabulary — not because she's a woman but because she's more direct," said Bel, explaining that traditional politicians might talk of diminished "purchasing power" while she worried about "living being expensive."

Shortly before the Socialists met in November to pick a presidential candidate, the elephants unwisely attacked Royal in sexist terms. One cracked that if both she and Hollande campaigned, "Who will stay home and take care of the children?"

Even in a country where women didn't get the vote until after World War II and parties prefer to pay fines rather than meet quotas for female representatives, the attacks didn't go down well. Royal used them to her advantage and breezed to the nomination. It has certainly helped that she is beautiful in the unstudied way of a classic French woman...At a town hall-type meeting during the primaries, a man prefaced a question by saying Royal was even more beautiful in person than in photos. "You don't look so bad yourself," she said. The crowd loved it.

...Her aides and reporters who have followed her campaign describe her as warmly relentless: She can be blunt but polite about what has to be done; she'll listen to advice but mostly keeps her own counsel. She is not above attending to the smallest details — rewriting her speeches, picking poster photos, even switching off lights.

...Gauthier Caron-Thibault, a top aide in the Paris mayor's office, has worked hard in Royal's ground forces, but is not a strong believer. He can't identify one or two main concepts that emerged from her leadership. Except, that with her unconventional style, she has put herself at the center of what many call a "serene revolution."

"But can you tell me concretely what a 'serene revolution' looks like?" he said.

With her something-for-everybody politics, she has made people feel that each of their personal concerns can be answered, instead of creating a sense of collective good or movement, he said.

"I'm afraid," Caron-Thibault said, "that if she loses, she'll be all that remains."

 

[yevkassem72]

This is what the L.A. Times says about her:

So, a center-left candidate who has no clear message and a right-wing extremist....I don't envy my aunt or cousins right now.

This is like Hillary Clinton vs. Pat Buchanan!

 

[rgraham666]

Any one with a clear vision is almost bound to be wrong. And bound to hurt a lot of people since they'll be too busy being correct to be good.

On the other hand is the person with no clear vision simply too wish-washy and dull to focus? Or are they simply acknowledging they could be wrong?

Shrugs. No one ever said it would be easy.

 

[yevkassem72]

I do have problems trusting Socialists. But the same is true of ultra-nationalists, as well.

She seems a bit vicious in some ways. But then, so does he. Again, I don't envy my cousins in France. I do know that if I had to choose, I'd have to vote for her, as the lesser evil. As one who isn't purely European in origins would have to feel uncomfortable with him.

I remember him now. The Fascist. Enough said.

On the other hand, that leaves me with a left-winger who has a mean streak, a litigious nature, and an annoying Nanny State mindset. Color me unimpressed.

Must be the anarchist in me. Though I have reluctantly accepted that there is no point to backing anarchy, since it has no realistic future. Even so, the old anarchist/Marxist grudge does affect me.

Still, I have to wonder: how is it that the elections are being held 2 years early? Did Chirac resign or something?

 

[ChristopherMaxwell]

This is what the L.A. Times says about her:

Oh, bugger all, the poor French! And I'm not normally sympathetic to them. Very hard to be from other end of the Channel. But they don't deserve such a horrid choice.

Regarding Scotland....not sure what else to say. Except that if they're putting up candidates for a King, I'd like to be considered.

 

[neonlyte]

The Scottish result is in... Scottish National Party 47, Labour Party 46, Conservatives 17, Liberal Democrats 16, Others 3.

SNP won but not enough to achieve a full devolution majority. It is unclear who will lead the Scottish Parliament as Labour and the Liberal Democrats may rule under a coalition.

yevkassem72: As far as know the French Presidential election is being held on schedule. The right wing candidate is showing a 9% lead ahead of Sunday's voting.

 

[oggbashan]

...

Regarding Scotland....not sure what else to say. Except that if they're putting up candidates for a King, I'd like to be considered.

The Last King of Scotland was Idi Amin

Og

 

[R. Richard]

The Last King of Scotland was Idi Amin

Og

Yes, he did make the claim in the 1970s. However, the Jacobites consider Franz Bonaventura Adalbert Maria Herzog von Bayern, His Royal Highness The Duke of Bavaria, to be the heir of the House of Stuart and the rightful ruler of England and Scotland, though he himself does not advance the claim.

However, Og, there is a more serious problem than claimants to the Throne of Scotland. Whoever is designing the hats that Queen Elizabeth II is currently wearing is making a serious effort to undermine the Throne of England. You people over there need to do something.

 

[smotp]

Hey What About Us Welsh?

We moved out a while back, just never told anyone.

You have to pay to get in, the signs are in our language an the UK doesn't understand how the Senydd works.

The SNP just took a majority of the seats in the Scottish Parliament and there may be a referendum on independance but we Welsh have always been indepenant, just kept quiet and took the Saesneg cash.

Come to Wales and see for yourself!

We gave you Catherine, Tom, Anthony and many more, Scotland has Sean.

Diolch