According to fivethirtyeight, they got 2016 wrong because

[StrictMiss]

they didn't account enough for the uneducated (who obviously voted for Trump).

I hope they've seen some of those Jordan Klepper videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfMUn1U3aSk

 

[StrictMiss]

Trump supporters blocking traffic on NY/NJ Cuomo Bridge...

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...lock-traffic-on-nj-parkway-ny-bridge/2699128/

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/1...-gov-mario-cuomo-bridge-garden-state-parkway/

How's this for uneducated?

 

[StrictMiss]

The uneducateds' caravans...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...pt-Biden-bus-Trump-Sr-praised-them-afterwards

 

[FGB]

What they got wrong was their pride and arrogance in thinking that the majority of the people agreed with them, which was wrong and that the Democrats that didn't were afraid to step out of line and vote for the way they wanted to live and the country they wanted to have.

The thing about threats and punishments is that they only work on the faint of heart and with people that feel they have a choice.

That is how Hillary lost and probably why Biden and company will lose.

Simplistic isn't it.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Election turn out or lack there of, also helped skew the polling.

Seems this time election turn out will not be low, and the more voters who vote, the more accurate polls become.

 

[YDB95]

What they got wrong was their pride and arrogance in thinking that the majority of the people agreed with them, which was wrong and that the Democrats that didn't were afraid to step out of line and vote for the way they wanted to live and the country they wanted to have.

If that were even close to the truth, Trump's approval ratings would have been a LOT higher throughout his term.

 

[Rockymtnman]

What they got wrong was their pride and arrogance in thinking that the majority of the people agreed with them, which was wrong and that the Democrats that didn't were afraid to step out of line and vote for the way they wanted to live and the country they wanted to have.

The thing about threats and punishments is that they only work on the faint of heart and with people that feel they have a choice.

That is how Hillary lost and probably why Biden and company will lose.

Simplistic isn't it.

Actually the majority voted for Hillary. So we didn’t get that wrong. What they got wrong was about 65k votes in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The race was within the margin of error in several states. Some they got right some they got wrong. If it’s a popular vote you guys lose every time.

 

[jaF0]

The thing about threats and punishments is that they only work on the faint of heart ...

Simplistic isn't it.

Which is why Moscow Mitch and the rest of the GOPpers caved to The Don's gangland brutalism.

 

[coati]

Actually the majority voted for Hillary. So we didn’t get that wrong. What they got wrong was about 65k votes in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The race was within the margin of error in several states. Some they got right some they got wrong. If it’s a popular vote you guys lose every time.

^^^This is exactly right.

And, the "pride and arrogance in thinking that the majority of people agreed with them", as referred to by FGB is actually what is taking place within the Trump cult. They won in 2016 with 2,000,000 less votes, "governed" as if they had a majority mandate, pissed off even more voters, but continued to think they were a majority movement.

This gross disconnect is what happens in cults, because cult followers mistakenly believe reality is consensus opinion within the cult.

The reality about the majority of people in the U.S. will be revealed this week, but the Trump cultists will likely deny that reality, again. That is just the nature of cult behavior, even at this large scale.

 

[StrictMiss]

The uneducated in action. Trump rally interviews.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SH329MmRikQ

Jordan Klepper has about four of these. There should be another one later today.

 

[StrictMiss]

They didn't think people were stupid enough to fall for lies like this.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...rrant-final-pitches-on-virus-energy/24672948/

 

[coati]

The uneducated in action. Trump rally interviews.

^^^Hilarious videos from the theater of the absurd.

 

[LLCox]

" I love the uneducated." (They makes such good anti science lemmings) DJT

 

[Wrong Element]

The polling mistake in 2016 (it wasn't the mistake of Five Thirty Eight, which analyzes polls but doesn't conduct them) was the assumption that the 2016 electorate would look pretty much like the 2012 electorate. The undercounting of white non-college voters, and to some extent the overcounting of black voters, made the difference in the large states that went narrowly for Trump.

I see some pollsters are giving extra weight to white noncollege voters this time around, on the assumption that the Trump base is still very enthusiastic. There's nothing wrong with weighting polls per se — the idea is to get it right — but I wonder if by fighting the last war again, they're not actually underestimating Biden just a little bit.

At any rate, I think they've bent over backwards to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, and I'd be surprised if there's a massive polling error in Biden's favor, which is the only way Trump can win.