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Are We Destined For War?

Kantarii

Kantarii

I'm Not A Bitch!
Joined
May 9, 2016
Posts
9,360
The Thucydides Trap - when one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result.

Forget Iran, Syria, and North Korea. Between the South China Sea, Taiwan, and a trade war, how much longer before America is in a shooting war with China?
 
Get rid of the Orange Menace and things will move back towards civilization.
 
jaF0 said:
Get rid of the Orange Menace and things will move back towards civilization.
Click to expand...

Take your blinders off and stop fixating on Trump. This situation started before he took office. I seem to recall China was building artificial islands during the Obama Administration.
 
jaF0 said:
Get rid of the Orange Menace and things will move back towards civilization.
Click to expand...

This attitude is why we are destined for war.
When a society gets so fat and happy that war becomes "not an option"
then it is a sick rotten edifice that will be targeted for its wealth by the hungry.

This is a historical fact. 250 years seems to be the average defining lifespan of a "great country/empire."


When we are more focused on domestic squabbles than emerging external threats
then we are ripe for surprise and ambush by the irresistible forces of history.
 
SpeareChucker said:
This attitude is why we are destined for war.
When a society gets so fat and happy that war becomes "not an option"
then it is a sick rotten edifice that will be targeted for its wealth by the hungry.

This is a historical fact. 250 years seems to be the average defining lifespan of a "great country/empire."


When we are more focused on domestic squabbles than emerging external threats
then we are ripe for surprise and ambush by the irresistible forces of history.
Click to expand...

You don’t expect him to know history, do you? I mean, Democrats are running around trying to erase it by taking down monuments, redefining what is taught in schools, and trying to flip the race card on it being morally wrong if you aren’t of color.
 
Are there stats on credible threats against presidents?

You sometimes see articles on the topic.

I dont think i have seen any about trump yet, which seems counter- intuitive.

Then again, he seems very security-conscious.
 
SpeareChucker said:
This attitude is why we are destined for war.
When a society gets so fat and happy that war becomes "not an option"
then it is a sick rotten edifice that will be targeted for its wealth by the hungry.

This is a historical fact. 250 years seems to be the average defining lifespan of a "great country/empire."


When we are more focused on domestic squabbles than emerging external threats
then we are ripe for surprise and ambush by the irresistible forces of history.
Click to expand...

I understand what you are saying... but surely there is another way?
I don't want to send our best people off to war, the people who agreed to give their life for American principles and values, and then be stuck with all the bad traits to repopulate.
 
InsightRiot said:
I understand what you are saying... but surely there is another way?
I don't want to send our best people off to war, the people who agreed to give their life for American principles and values, and then be stuck with all the bad traits to repopulate.
Click to expand...

So we solve the problem by enlisting prisoners. Problem solved. They wanna kill, we put them on a plane, drop them in a foreign country with a weapon and tell them to do what they do best.
 
It's hard to define best people when we're talking about the general gene pool.
Heinlein has a pretty good discussion about that in Time Enough for Love.

It might even be posited that the very best come back carrying their shields,
so to speak, or stay behind to organize, train, direct or are too young, too old,
too educated, too valuable to war production, etc., to risk as common soldiers.

;) ;)
 
Kantarii said:
So we solve the problem by enlisting prisoners. Problem solved. They wanna kill, we put them on a plane, drop them in a foreign country with a weapon and tell them to do what they do best.
Click to expand...

*chuckle*


The Dirty Dozen
 
SpeareChucker said:
We do need some criminal minds...



Kelly's Heroes comes to mind. Greed can move mountains when Patriotism treads with trepidation.

:D :D :D
Click to expand...

The only quote I heard remotely close to that is: Hate will move every mountain that love can’t.
But I’m babbling.
 
That actually touches on the core of the more scholarly examination mentioned before.
When a society gains that affluent phase and goes into a defensive posture
eschewing confrontation and further expansion and conflict as not-profitable
then, they become ripe for the taking by by emerging cultures/states who
lack affluence and see conquest as highly profitable and are united and willing
to act and to take with acts of audacity, violence and aggression ignoring the odds
knowing that they are facing an enemy that has lost the will to fight in any sense
other than bloodless internecine political squabbles...
 
SpeareChucker said:
That actually touches on the core of the more scholarly examination mentioned before.
When a society gains that affluent phase and goes into a defensive posture
eschewing confrontation and further expansion and conflict as not-profitable
then, they become ripe for the taking by by emerging cultures/states who
lack affluence and see conquest as highly profitable and are united and willing
to act and to take with acts of audacity, violence and aggression ignoring the odds
knowing that they are facing an enemy that has lost the will to fight in any sense
other than bloodless internecine political squabbles...
Click to expand...

My dad used to say that quote a lot. I always interpreted it as: if one tries to do the right thing and it fails, then doing the wrong thing will yield a result - just not in the desired way.
 
That's a good observation.

Since Korea, we've been unwilling to fight to win, so the handwriting is on the wall.
Now we see that even the idea of defending our borders is creating consternation.

This is now a house divided against itself unwilling to admit that it has potential rivals.
Oh yeah, when the "other" political faction is in power, the world hates us,
but as soon as it is defeated and political power is in the right hands,
this hate will be dissipated...

;) ;)

... all potential world conflict is caused by "the other political faction."
 
SpeareChucker said:
That's a good observation.

Since Korea, we've been unwilling to fight to win, so the handwriting is on the wall.
Now we see that even the idea of defending our borders is creating consternation.

This is now a house divided against itself unwilling to admit that it has potential rivals.
Oh yeah, when the "other" political faction is in power, the world hates us,
but as soon as it is defeated and political power is in the right hands,
this hate will be dissipated...

;) ;)

... all potential world conflict is caused by "the other political faction."
Click to expand...

Speaking of our southern border, I’m sure China is watching how we deal with it because, if war ever breaks out with North Korea, they’ll have basically the same situation. Although I’m sure they’d have no problem shooting refugees.
 
China is a criminal syndicate, so is Russia. The only difference is that China didn't go through a period of collapse to get there as Russia did.

The South China Sea is gong to be the most likely flash point as far as any US-China confrontation.

What can't be ruled out is a China-Russia confrontation. Yeah, they've signed some agreements and they're holding for the time being. But anyone that doesn't think China has their eyes on Eastern Siberia is blind to reality. What China needs more than anything else is oil and Eastern Siberia has that in abundance along with a great many other strategic minerals. The non-aggression treaties that they've signed with each other have to be viewed in the same context as the treaty signed by Hitler and Stalin.
 
China is busy establishing a solid presence south of our border.

They want to force our dwindling navy back here to force it to play defense
so that they can play offense in the South China Sea and Africa.
 
SpeareChucker said:
China is busy establishing a solid presence south of our border.

They want to force our dwindling navy back here to force it to play defense
so that they can play offense in the South China Sea and Africa.
Click to expand...

You know, that’s a pretty good observation and probably not too far off the mark. However, the US Navy is pretty big. So I wouldn’t say they are trying to keep America’s navy close to home as much as they are trying to keep it spread out to where it will take time to move into position and thin out the US’s presence in the region.

But again, good observation.
 
China's military looks good on paper but in reality they're still a continental power. Meaning they have an awesome Army but their Air Forces and Navy leave a lot to be desired. They still can't project power beyond their continental shelf. Their jet engines are seriously under powered and unreliable (so are Russia's). They have little sea lift capability. And that's the problem that they, or anyone else, faces when you steal technology that you don't fully understand.

It's not by accident that all three of our Sea Wolf class subs are west coast based now. Those boats are quieter at 20 kt.s than the LA class is parked at the dock. They carry 50 war shots and the Mk 48 has a range of damn near 30 nmi. If they're going to play in the Pacific they're going to have to bring a hell of a lot more than they have.
 
Look for it to shrink in the future and I do not mean the distant future.

The military is very much out of favor with a new generation focused
solely only on wealth accumulation and personal advancement.
Money directed to military operations/infrastructure is not
money being used to subsidized their educations and careers.
 
I think those are all good points, however,
that piece you forwarded to me is nothing but a history
of how the mighty were taken down by those with lesser,
but more motivated and ethnically/religiously united militaries.

If our military is undermined and deserted on the home front
then defeat is once, again inevitable and predictable.
Remember, we won Tet on the battlefield but
lost it decisively at home...

;) ;)
 
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