The Economy

The US trade deficit in goods shrank in August. Exports and imports both declined.

The international trade deficit was $85.5 billion in August, down $17.3 billion from $102.8 billion in July. Exports of goods for August were $176.1 billion, $2.3 billion less than July exports. Imports of goods for August were $261.6 billion, $19.6 billion less than July imports.

As expected, Trump’s protectionist policies are reducing economic activity, both inflows and outflows.
 
The US trade deficit in goods shrank in August. Exports and imports both declined.



As expected, Trump’s protectionist policies are reducing economic activity, both inflows and outflows.
the standard of living is next and we are seeing the effect with less take home pay with rising living expenses from food to energy to car parts. the warning signs are clear if you know how to read the data.
 

What is missing from your dry / sterile / relatively mundane reporting, is the fact that DonOld promised to SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PRICES.

DonOld did NOT promise to MARGINALLY RAISE PRICES for a little while, and then SPIKE PRICES after the pre-Trump-Tariff-Tax bulk orders that companies placed to mitigate the damage from the Trump-Tariff-Tax ran out.

🤬

@heathrowinneo is absolutely correct about the cracks already beginning to show in certain sectors of the economy as far as spiking prices are concerned: The car parts crisis @heathrowinneo mentioned is hitting at a time when Americans are needing (forced) to invest in repairs after putting them off for so long (during AND after Covid): That demand, coupled with the Trump-Tariff-Tax is going to result in the perfect storm in that sector of the economy.

🤬

I honestly believe EVERYONE KNOWS that prices are going to spike more broadly, and that is why the Fed is tamping down expectations of more rate cuts and investors are conceding the point (of course, DonOld will continue to DEMAND MOAR RATE CUTS, but nothing is going to change the dismal, dystopian reality the Trump-tariff-tax, etc, have created).

🤬

We. Told. Them. So.

🌷
 
Which ones were supposed to be the communists?

It is a policy of appeasement. Some aid will reach the beleaguered farmers but will it be enough to save their farms long term? most of trump administrations economic policies are transactional with limited effect until another change comes along and undo's or redirects the original intent. It is one thing to enact tariffs. it's another thing to not understand the consequences of the action when it is based on a transaction or a few data points as opposed to a long term game plan. The idea of reshoring american manufacturing is a noble one. But when the demand to build a factory is not met with economic incentives to build but rather with financial penalties, the words to reshore from industry ring a bit hollow. And to the mix the workforce. The US is limiting who can come into work and develop the new technologies needed for the new factories as well as the floor workers. Not to mention inflation when the cost of raw materials from tariffed countries hit the US shores. Maybe the new factories can be located in high unemployment areas that are adversely affected by chronic unemployment and high usage of medicaid and SNAP. It would allow them to meet the new work requirements for the government programs. Education is a factor as well and needs to be bolstered and not reduced.
 
The Stagnant Job Market

Job openings increased slightly in August but the hiring rate is at a low point similar to the Great Recession.

The hiring rate also ticked lower last month, reaching its lowest point since June 2024, while the rate of people voluntarily leaving their jobs slid to its lowest level so far this year,underscoring a frozen labor market in which out-of-work Americans are struggling to gain footing.

“Yikes. The official US ‘hiring rate’ fell to 3.2% in August,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote on X, calling the pace of hiring an “anemic level” that, apart from one month last year and another low month in April 2020, hadn’t been seen since the Great Recession.
 
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The Pedo is talking about firing all those government workers, but they won't be filling the jobs vacated by the expelled brown people any time soon.

Folks who have managed projects, procurement and policies are not fruit pickers.
 
Government jobs data probably won’t be released Friday, but ADP released alarming data today …

ADP report: Private employers unexpectedly shed 32,000 jobs as labor market continues pullback

US private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, the latest sign that the labor market is in a serious pullback.

That’s according to data out Wednesday from payroll processor ADP, which was far below economists’ expectations of 51,000 jobs added. Private payrolls for August were also revised sharply lower to a loss of 3,000, after data initially showed a gain of 54,000.

Job losses and inflation — the Trump Effect.
 
I'm watching the energy sector, among other things, namely oil patch and what will be left of solar and wind. Chevron and others are dumping more people with the price going below breakeven.

Yeah, OPEC has driven down the price of oil by increasing supply, which Crooked Donnie likes, but it reduces employment in the US oil industry. Those double edged swords are a bitch. Texas Republicans may start sweating soon.

Anyway, the latest bad jobs numbers may scare the Fed into another cut. But if September inflation comes in hot, there’s no good move for the Fed.
 
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