Russia’s failures in Ukraine imbue Pentagon with newfound confidence

[pecksniff]

Poland or Azerbaijan is the two most likely targets for demonstrative tactical nukes.

Sweden just became of an insult if they follow Finland in joining NATO.

How is that an insult if NATO doesn't exist?

 

[LupusDei]

How is that an insult if NATO doesn't exist?

Well, NATO is an insult and useful excuse, but he doesn't believe it would actually function or defend anyone, at least as long he threatens nukes.

 

[pecksniff]

That's like super naive. The war in Ukraine isn't about Ukraine. Ukraine just happened to be the victim of the day for the bully to torture for demonstration purposes. The war is virtually guaranteed to spread if it won't be contained. Putin won't stop, and won't accept any peace deal short of total capitulation from Ukraine, unless Ukraine clearly and irrefutably win by taking Sevastopol, Donetsk and Rostov-on-Don (for a bargaining chip, although they may not want to give it up if indeed take by accident, Ukraine do claim Krasnodar Krai as historically theirs (based on map of 1919, and Ukrainian language spoken there until the Holodomor)). Even then an active front line may remain all until Putin is dead or ousted.

If Ukraine fall, there's, Moldova, Georgia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Azerbaijan... Finland and Sweden if they dare an insult in joining NATO.

And before you hiss about NATO, Putin doesn't believe it exists or will actually help if members be targeted one by one.

Considering what a military humiliation Russia has already suffered in Ukraine, how can Putin possibly still nurture any broader ambitions?

 

[LupusDei]

Considering what a military humiliation Russia has already suffered in Ukraine, how can Putin possibly still nurture any broader ambitions?

Said humiliation still has to come to head. So far just few have noticed it happens, although panic is starting.

 

[Chobham]

That's like super naive. The war in Ukraine isn't about Ukraine. Ukraine just happened to be the victim of the day for the bully to torture for demonstration purposes. The war is virtually guaranteed to spread if it won't be contained. Putin won't stop, and won't accept any peace deal short of total capitulation from Ukraine, unless Ukraine clearly and irrefutably win by taking Sevastopol, Donetsk and Rostov-on-Don (for a bargaining chip, although they may not want to give it up if indeed take by accident, Ukraine do claim Krasnodar Krai as historically theirs (based on map of 1919, and Ukrainian language spoken there until the Holodomor)). Even then an active front line may remain all until Putin is dead or ousted.

If Ukraine fall, there's, Moldova, Georgia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Azerbaijan... Finland and Sweden if they dare an insult in joining NATO.

And before you hiss about NATO, Putin doesn't believe it exists or will actually help if members be targeted one by one.

Putin already has virtual control of Kazakhstan and Georgia. He's sown up the Crimea as well. That left three remaining gaps to be plugged as far as traditional invasion routes into the Russian heartland. Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic's. So you're quite correct about Putin not stopping with Ukraine..................unless the Ukrainians stop him. I still have little confidence that the Ukrainians can prevail but they can make the endeavor so costly that Putin's military power will be spent or he's removed from the chessboard.

Russia is a dying empire and Putin knows it. Their fertility rate has been in the toilet (1.1 children per woman) for decades now. Putin feels he has to act now because he will not have the military capability in the future to act at all.

The US/NATO is doing the exactly what should be done. Furnishing the Ukrainians with all of the man portable hi-tech weapons they can use thus avoiding anything that would require infrastructure (fixed implacements) that would invite a direct confrontation. And the Ukraine military is employing tactics that are making the most effective use of those weapons. Throw in the sanctions which are going to bite ever more deeply over time (a dirty little secret is that Putin cannot move his oil from well head to customer without Western technology) and Putin is in deep shit.

Ukraine is going to pay a steep price in the front end but it is Russia that is going to lose in the long term.

 

[icanhelp1]

Poland or Azerbaijan is the two most likely targets for demonstrative tactical nukes.

Sweden just became of an insult if they follow Finland in joining NATO.

Well, I hope there are some cooler heads in Moscow, any demonstrative use of tactical nukes on Poland will not end well. Putin knows full well and doesn’t need military tacticians around him to realize that would be a step too far. Not sure what our target sets would be in response but there would be a response and I almost certain it would be aimed at inflicting pain on Putin himself. IMHO

 

[icanhelp1]

Putin already has virtual control of Kazakhstan and Georgia. He's sown up the Crimea as well. That left three remaining gaps to be plugged as far as traditional invasion routes into the Russian heartland. Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic's. So you're quite correct about Putin not stopping with Ukraine..................unless the Ukrainians stop him. I still have little confidence that the Ukrainians can prevail but they can make the endeavor so costly that Putin's military power will be spent or he's removed from the chessboard.

Russia is a dying empire and Putin knows it. Their fertility rate has been in the toilet (1.1 children per woman) for decades now. Putin feels he has to act now because he will not have the military capability in the future to act at all.

The US/NATO is doing the exactly what should be done. Furnishing the Ukrainians with all of the man portable hi-tech weapons they can use thus avoiding anything that would require infrastructure (fixed implacements) that would invite a direct confrontation. And the Ukraine military is employing tactics that are making the most effective use of those weapons. Throw in the sanctions which are going to bite ever more deeply over time (a dirty little secret is that Putin cannot move his oil from well head to customer without Western technology) and Putin is in deep shit.

Ukraine is going to pay a steep price in the front end but it is Russia that is going to lose in the long term.

I can’t for the life of me understand why Ukraine was not furnished Harpoon missile systems.

 

[Chobham]

I can’t for the life of me understand why Ukraine was not furnished Harpoon missile systems.

Because it's a land locked nation maybe?

 

[icanhelp1]

Because it's a land locked nation maybe?

Because it's a land locked nation maybe?

Ukraine has a shore line on both the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea where Russian ships are lobbing artillery fire as well as cruise missiles

 

[Chobham]

Ukraine has a shore line on both the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea where Russian ships are lobbing artillery fire as well as cruise missiles

Harpoon's require infrastructure and highly technical support, none of which the Ukrainians have. It also appears that the Ukrainians are doing quite well with the drones etc. forcing the Russians to keep their ships at stand-off distance. The Russians already have a well established beach head (and always did) via the Crimean peninsula. Because of that presence I've discounted anti-naval operations as being terribly significant.

The Ukrainians being able to sink that supply ship is much more significant than launching Harpoons against warships. The Russians have to bring those supply ships to docks in order to supply their troops. The Ukrainians are, quite successfully, attacking the Russian logistic trains. All the strategy in the world is worthless if your troops don't have beans and bullets.

 

[LupusDei]

Putin already has virtual control of Kazakhstan and Georgia.

You may be surprised to discover that Kazakhstan has made a sharp turn toward democratization and Putin is losing his (already dubious) grip on it as we speak. Plus, there's very strong and well managed Chinese influence (btw, Tokayev speaks fluent Chinese since before his position in UN). Tokayev may seem boring bureaucrat, but he's smart, cunning and a liberal in deep, well concealed core.

Georgia currently has borderline pro-Russian government installed, but the populace had a hostile turn recently, despite long nurtured propaganda (with include bizzaro Stalin cult). It's nowhere done deal especially in context of military humiliation of Russia ongoing.

 

[Chobham]

You may be surprised to discover that Kazakhstan has made a sharp turn toward democratization and Putin is losing his (already dubious) grip on it as we speak. Plus, there's very strong and well managed Chinese influence (btw, Tokayev speaks fluent Chinese since before his position in UN). Tokayev may seem boring bureaucrat, but he's smart, cunning and a liberal in deep, well concealed core.

Georgia currently has borderline pro-Russian government installed, but the populace had a hostile turn recently, despite long nurtured propaganda (with include bizzaro Stalin cult). It's nowhere done deal especially in context of military humiliation of Russia ongoing.

There are issues to be certain but Putin, at least for the time being, seems to think all is under control in those regions.

You do bring up a point that I've been talking about for some time now. The greatest threat to Russia is from China, not NATO. If Putin breaks his military tilting against NATO the East is wide open for the Chinese to stroll in and only nukes can stop them.

 

[mayfly13]

You may be surprised to discover that Kazakhstan has made a sharp turn toward democratization and Putin is losing his (already dubious) grip on it as we speak. Plus, there's very strong and well managed Chinese influence (btw, Tokayev speaks fluent Chinese since before his position in UN). Tokayev may seem boring bureaucrat, but he's smart, cunning and a liberal in deep, well concealed core.

Georgia currently has borderline pro-Russian government installed, but the populace had a hostile turn recently, despite long nurtured propaganda (with include bizzaro Stalin cult). It's nowhere done deal especially in context of military humiliation of Russia ongoing.

Your posts are a breath of fresh air, LD.

Because I am feeling manipulated and lied to by Western mainstream media.
For example, these:
---No, Ukrainians aren't angels, there's been a systematic process of Ukrainisation and squashing of their identity of All minorities from their territory.
Moreover, hate crimes against minorities institutions have been tolerated by the Ukrai ian government:
https://washington.mfa.gov.hu/eng/news/us-strategy-for-ukraine-must-include-minority-rights---And in Donbas BOTH Ukrainians and Russians committed genocide, not just Russians.

The pro-Russian pockets of opinions that are starting to pop up world-wide, EE included AREN'T due to Russian propaganda..
They are a counter-reaction to the low IQ propagandistic crap that the Anglo corporate massmedia is feeding us.

We need a Baltic perspective, you guys have a more sophisticated and History-based approach.

 

[Champakian]

Maybe the Ukrainian drive towards "Ukrainianism" has something to do with
the years of Soviet Oppression (Russia) and a desire to rectify the wrong...

 

[ll74]

Ukraine doing things inside their country is a Ukraine thing. No country has the authority to unilaterally decide to intervene.

I'd say additionally, that Russia has had troops inside the country for quite a long time. Those troops have no right to be there and they absolutely exacerbate the situation.

 

[Champakian]

It's a pattern. Send them in sans uniform.

 

[RobDownSouth]

The only "winner" in this war is the Javelin missle system, which has been proven to effectively destroy the motorized capability of the enemy. 100 our of 112 missles fired by the Ukranians destroyed their intended targets (tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters). at roughly $230,000 per missle, they are a relatively inexpensive weapon of targeted destruction. Their introduction to the battlefield has basically signalled the end of tank warfare.

 

[mayfly13]

Maybe the Ukrainian drive towards "Ukrainianism" has something to do with
the years of Soviet Oppression (Russia) and a desire to rectify the wrong...

Yes, I agree that THAT was the main driver.

In saying that, a part is driven by nationalism
They squashed the rights of other minorities too.
And some Ukrainians consider Moskovites to be inferior culturally and genetically, due to the Mongols influence.

What I'm trying to say is that, while what we're witnessing is genocide and imperialism
and there's no justification for it
Ukraine isn't the baby-faced altruistic person that massmedia led us into believing.

 

[Champakian]

Nobody is. Even Jesus had his moment and don't get me started on his father...

 

[RobDownSouth]

There are issues to be certain but Putin, at least for the time being, seems to think all is under control in those regions.

You do bring up a point that I've been talking about for some time now. The greatest threat to Russia is from China, not NATO. If Putin breaks his military tilting against NATO the East is wide open for the Chinese to strong and only nukes can stop them.

China faces a monumental threat from Russia as a result of the Russo-Ukranian war. China is desparate to achieve food self-sufficiency and curtail reliance on American agricultural imports. To do so, they import millions of tons of fertilizer from Russia each year. Russian fertilizer mining and manufacturing has basically ceased, which cripples Chinese agriculture. In the short term, food prices in America will spike as opportunistic American farmers exploit the Chinese shortage of basic foodstuffs. This cannot continue on a long term basis, so China is looking at a potential famine not seen since Mao Zedong was in power.

 

[mayfly13]

The war is virtually guaranteed to spread if it won't be contained. Putin won't stop, and won't accept any peace deal short of total capitulation from Ukraine, unless Ukraine clearly and irrefutably win by taking Sevastopol, Donetsk and Rostov-on-Don (for a bargaining chip, although they may not want to give it up if indeed take by accident, Ukraine do claim Krasnodar Krai as historically theirs (based on map of 1919, and Ukrainian language spoken there until the Holodomor)).

If Ukraine fall, there's, Moldova, Georgia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Azerbaijan... Finland and Sweden if they dare an insult in joining NATO.

And before you hiss about NATO, Putin doesn't believe it exists or will actually help if members be targeted one by one.

To me, it was striking how all Ukraine's neighbors (even those who've been whingeing for years that Ukraine treats their minorities poorly) jumped without hesitation on Ukraine's side.
Part of it was a display in humanity,
but it was palpable that they were all freaking out that they will be next.

 

[mayfly13]

But it's not just Putin.
We created this wishful thinking story that somehow Putin is keeping everybody around himself captive, and if only someone would assassinate him...

 

[Chernosoth]

Tanks are easy targets in war now. Russia could have saved some fuel by parking their junk in their own junkyards.

 

[mayfly13]

China faces a monumental threat from Russia as a result of the Russo-Ukranian war. China is desparate to achieve food self-sufficiency and curtail reliance on American agricultural imports. To do so, they import millions of tons of fertilizer from Russia each year.

Russian fertilizer mining and manufacturing has basically ceased, which cripples Chinese agriculture. In the short term, food prices in America will spike as opportunistic American farmers exploit the Chinese shortage of basic foodstuffs. This cannot continue on a long term basis, so China is looking at a potential famine not seen since Mao Zedong was in power.

This!

The question is, is America imposing all the sanctions on Russia with this aim in mind, or as they said to stop the invasion& carnage& ww3?

 

[ll74]

But it's not just Putin.
We created this wishful thinking story that somehow Putin is keeping everybody around himself captive, and if only someone would assassinate him...

He as declared himself leader of Russia for life and has actually jailed and even murdered his political opposition. That story isn't far from the truth

In contrast, the US has had democratically elected Presidents change foreign policy a little bit from time to time.