AUKUS is a military alliance recently formed by Australia, the UK and the U.S. -- two of which were already NATO allies, so it seems redundant, but its stated strategic orientation will be "the Indo-Pacific region." The recent sale of American nuclear submarines to Australia (which got public attention mainly for freezing out the French) was part of this arrangement.
Is it directed at the PRC? Portending a new Cold War? This writer thinks so.
Is it directed at the PRC? Portending a new Cold War? This writer thinks so.
Imagine how Biden administration officials would feel about the announcement of a "VERUCH" (VEnezuela, RUssia, and CHina) alliance. Imagine how they'd react to a buildup of Chinese military bases and thousands of Chinese troops in Venezuela. Imagine their reaction to regular deployments of all types of Chinese military aircraft, submarines, and warships in Venezuela, to increased spying, heightened cyberwarfare capabilities, and relevant space "activities," as well as military exercises involving thousands of Chinese and Russian troops not just in Venezuela but in the waters of the Atlantic within striking distance of the United States. How would Biden's team feel about the promised delivery of a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines to that country, involving the transfer of nuclear technology and nuclear-weapons-grade uranium?
None of this has happened, but these would be the Western Hemisphere equivalents of the "major force posture initiatives" U.S., Australian, and British officials have just announced for East Asia. AUKUS officials unsurprisingly portray their alliance as making parts of Asia "safer and more secure," while building "a future of peace [and] opportunity for all the people of the region." It's unlikely U.S. leaders would view a similar Chinese military buildup in Venezuela or anywhere else in the Americas as a similar recipe for safety and peace.
In reaction to VERUCH, calls for a military response and a comparable alliance would be rapid. Shouldn't we expect Chinese leaders to react to the AUKUS buildup with their own version of the same? For now, a Chinese government spokesperson suggested that the AUKUS allies "should shake off their Cold War mentality" and "not build exclusionary blocs targeting or harming the interests of third parties." The Chinese military's recent escalation of provocative exercises near Taiwan may be, in part, an additional response.
Chinese leaders have even more reason to doubt the declared peaceful intent of AUKUS given that the U.S. military already has seven military bases in Australia and nearly 300 more spread across East Asia. By contrast, China doesn't have a single base in the Western Hemisphere or anywhere near the borders of the United States. Add in one more factor: in the last 20 years, the AUKUS allies have a track record of launching aggressive wars and participating in other conflicts from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya to Yemen, Somalia, and the Philippines, among other places. China's last war beyond its borders was with Vietnam for one month in 1979. (Brief, deadly clashes occurred with Vietnam in 1988 and India in 2020.)