Ebola...........by the numbers.

[Ishmael]

And it's not looking good.

The reproduction/infection rate for ebola is now estimated to be 1.5 - 2.0. That means that for every person now diagnosed with the disease, that person will have infected 1.5 - 2.0 more people. For an epidemic to be considered anywhere near under control the reproduction/infection rate HAS to fall below 1.0.

Currently it is estimated that 7,500 people have been diagnosed with the disease. At the end of the next incubation cycle, approx. 10 days, that number will be 11,250 cases, and 10 days after that the number will be 16,875. The reproduction/infection rate is a geometric progression. Those nations where the epidemic is spreading are already overwhelmed and the response from the developed nations is late and meager.

The authorities tell us that the disease HAS to be fought where it's at in West Africa. And I agree with them 100% But at the same time that infection HAS to be contained to the same area. And this is where their policies fall on their ass. The approach to travel restrictions is cavalier at best, and damned dangerous at worst. (No on lies on their health questionnaire.............right?)

The Dallas case was badly fumbled and if he was the one and only we can only thank our lucky stars that we dodged a bullet. The Spanish case is a great big question mark. They're still trying to figure out how that nurse was infected. Yet there has been no serious attempt to quarantine travel from that area of the globe. It can be done.

Meanwhile that noted medical researcher Barack Obama tells us that, "you can't catch Ebola sitting beside someone on the bus." But the CDC protocols dictate that public transportation systems are to be avoided in the case of an outbreak.

Ishmael

 

[toubab]

And it's not looking good.

The reproduction/infection rate for ebola is now estimated to be 1.5 - 2.0. That means that for every person now diagnosed with the disease, that person will have infected 1.5 - 2.0 more people. For an epidemic to be considered anywhere near under control the reproduction/infection rate HAS to fall below 1.0.

Currently it is estimated that 7,500 people have been diagnosed with the disease. At the end of the next incubation cycle, approx. 10 days, that number will be 11,250 cases, and 10 days after that the number will be 16,875. The reproduction/infection rate is a geometric progression. Those nations where the epidemic is spreading are already overwhelmed and the response from the developed nations is late and meager.

The authorities tell us that the disease HAS to be fought where it's at in West Africa. And I agree with them 100% But at the same time that infection HAS to be contained to the same area. And this is where their policies fall on their ass. The approach to travel restrictions is cavalier at best, and damned dangerous at worst. (No on lies on their health questionnaire.............right?)

The Dallas case was badly fumbled and if he was the one and only we can only thank our lucky stars that we dodged a bullet. The Spanish case is a great big question mark. They're still trying to figure out how that nurse was infected. Yet there has been no serious attempt to quarantine travel from that area of the globe. It can be done.

Meanwhile that noted medical researcher Barack Obama tells us that, "you can't catch Ebola sitting beside someone on the bus." But the CDC protocols dictate that public transportation systems are to be avoided in the case of an outbreak.

Ishmael

The chances are this will not be the next pandemic that kills millions of people, but it might be, and those who keep saying otherwise are bullshitting.

 

[phrodeau]

It's from Africa, and so is Obama.

http://jasonlittle39.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/were-doomed.jpg

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

If ebola takes hold life as we know it will end, mostly because its too expensive to treat, and it will disrupt our global economy big time. People are already liquidating their stocks to have cash when time runs out. Those who matter and catch ebola will flee for America.

 

[Ishmael]

If ebola takes hold life as we know it will end, mostly because its too expensive to treat, and it will disrupt our global economy big time. People are already liquidating their stocks to have cash when time runs out. Those who matter and catch ebola will flee for America.

Or Europe, otherwise they'll have little chance.

We would be unable to handle such an epidemic if it were to ever materialize. We already have a shortage of doctors and the facilities required to house the victims are in even greater critical shortage.

What many aren't aware of is that we've already dodged the Ebola epidemic bullet once before, years ago. Read "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston.

Ishmael

 

[ryan8558]

Or Europe, otherwise they'll have little chance.

We would be unable to handle such an epidemic if it were to ever materialize. We already have a shortage of doctors and the facilities required to house the victims are in even greater critical shortage.

What many aren't aware of is that we've already dodged the Ebola epidemic bullet once before, years ago. Read "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston.

Ishmael

Good book.

 

[RobDownSouth]

It's from Africa, and so is Obama.

http://jasonlittle39.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/were-doomed.jpg

Grampa Boxed Wine seems determined to spend his dwindling few remaining days here on Earth fomenting fear.

He will not be long remembered, nor long missed, once he shuffles off the mortal coil.

 

[Que]

You are still alive and posting daily, BobsDownSouth, and no one here remembers with sufficient clarity when you used to be funny to nominate you for the HOF, despite you traipsing through those threads daily hoping someone, anyone, would show you some recognition.

I think someone is projecting their own insecurities.

 

[Beco]

The chances are this will not be the next pandemic that kills millions of people, but it might be, and those who keep saying otherwise are bullshitting.

What did you just write? Its not the next pandemic, but it could be, and what???

Chances are, we are not prepared for this! What is Obama doing?

 

[RobDownSouth]

You are still alive and posting daily, BobsDownSouth, and no one here remembers with sufficient clarity when you used to be funny to nominate you for the HOF, despite you traipsing through those threads daily hoping someone, anyone, would show you some recognition.

I think someone is projecting their own insecurities.

And right on cue....the #BroCavalry
http://i1349.photobucket.com/albums/p745/theseventhhex/WynonasBigBrownBeaver_zps4717d5e2.gif

 

[toubab]

What did you just write? Its not the next pandemic, but it could be, and what???

Chances are, we are not prepared for this! What is Obama doing?

I certainly didn't write it's not the next pandemic. Read what I wrote again, slowly.

 

[Beco]

I certainly didn't write it's not the next pandemic. Read what I wrote again, slowly.

The chances are this will not be the next pandemic that kills millions of people-----------, but it might be-----------, and those who keep saying otherwise are bullshitting.


Otherwise meaning what? that it is, or is not, the next pandemic????

 

[Que]

Chin up, Robbie, C-Sling will be here to rustle up some supportive general insults and Adre will be along when he gets free of his cocktail party.

 

[Que]

The chances are this will not be the next pandemic that kills millions of people-----------, but it might be-----------, and those who keep saying otherwise are bullshitting.


Otherwise meaning what? that it is, or is not, the next pandemic????

See the verb tense there?

He is saying it is not now (because it is not yet) and PROBABLY will not be. Probably does not mean definitely, so it may be.

"Otherwise" means those that now insist that it cannot under any given set of conditions ever become a pandemic, when it has all the right characteristics to be one.

If I were designing a pandemic I would pick a highly contagious disease with no known vaccine that has a very high mortality rate. It has all of those characteristics.

Those that claim it is only a problem because Africa lacks our medical resources forget that American Doctors that know the risks have contracted it while observing proper protocols for avoiding infectious diseases.

One hopes for the best, but pretending the worst is impossible is disingenuous.

 

[toubab]

The chances are this will not be the next pandemic that kills millions of people-----------, but it might be-----------, and those who keep saying otherwise are bullshitting.


Otherwise meaning what? that it is, or is not, the next pandemic????

The problems people have with reading comprehension here never cease to amaze me. Read the first three words of what I wrote again, even more slowly, and try to think. You can do it. You really can.

 

[Beco]

See the verb tense there?

He is saying it is not now (because it is not yet) and PROBABLY will not be. Probably does not mean definitely, so it may be.

right....

Is it, or is it not the next Pandemic? make a prediction.

I think it is.....I think this is going to get out of control because our President is ignoring this, like he does everything, and we arent prepared.

 

[Beco]

The problems people have with reading comprehension here never cease to amaze me. Read the first three words of what I wrote again, even more slowly, and try to think. You can do it. You really can.

I may not be able to read, but you cant fucking write a clear consise sentence.

It may not rain today, but it might.....and any of you assholes thing otherwise

 

[toubab]

I may not be able to read, but you cant fucking write a clear consise sentence.

It may not rain today, but it might.....and any of you assholes thing otherwise

SMDH.

 

[Que]

I may not be able to read, but you cant fucking write a clear consise sentence.

It may not rain today, but it might.....and any of you assholes thing otherwise

I will grant you that touab and myself are not concise.

No one can make a prediction. It depends on who comes into contact with whom. Air travel spreads the flu every year in exactly the same way. Not by air transmission, but by sneezing on hands and transferring to armrests and lavatory door knobs.

I think when and if it starts to get out of Africa in a major way, it will be contained by very strict quarantines.

 

[Beco]

I may take a shit today, but then again, I may not......and if any of you dopes think otherwise, well...you're wrong

 

[Beco]

I will grant you that touab and myself are not concise.

No one can make a prediction. It depends on who comes into contact with whom. Air travel spreads the flu every year in exactly the same way. Not by air transmission, but by sneezing on hands and transferring to armrests and lavatory door knobs.

I think when and if it starts to get out of Africa in a major way, it will be contained by very strict quarantines.

Its out! Its here! Get ready....

 

[RobDownSouth]

Chin up, Robbie, C-Sling will be here to rustle up some supportive general insults and Adre will be along when he gets free of his cocktail party.

How's your jihad to run me off this board comin' along? Any progress yet? Hmmm?

 

[phrodeau]

The chances are this will not be the next pandemic that kills millions of people, but it might be, and those who keep saying otherwise are bullshitting.

So "otherwise" means that chances are it won't be a pandemic, thus you started the sentence by bullshitting.

 

[toubab]

I will grant you that touab and myself are not concise.

No one can make a prediction. It depends on who comes into contact with whom. Air travel spreads the flu every year in exactly the same way. Not by air transmission, but by sneezing on hands and transferring to armrests and lavatory door knobs.

I think when and if it starts to get out of Africa in a major way, it will be contained by very strict quarantines.

I thought what I wrote was reasonably concise, and you certainly understood the meaning of what I wrote very well, and very obviously.

And I agree with your further comments. This thing is probably going to be contained, as it has been before, but if it isn't....

 

[Wrong Element]

And it's not looking good.

The reproduction/infection rate for ebola is now estimated to be 1.5 - 2.0. That means that for every person now diagnosed with the disease, that person will have infected 1.5 - 2.0 more people. For an epidemic to be considered anywhere near under control the reproduction/infection rate HAS to fall below 1.0.

Currently it is estimated that 7,500 people have been diagnosed with the disease. At the end of the next incubation cycle, approx. 10 days, that number will be 11,250 cases, and 10 days after that the number will be 16,875.

The rate of new infections hasn't been going up nearly that fast. If you go by the WHO numbers, the number of infected has about doubled in the last 5 weeks -- which is certainly awful, but not quite as awful as more than doubling over the next 20 days as you propose could happen. For there to be a million plus cases by January, which is the number I've seen speculated on in multiple places, things would have to kick into an entirely new gear.


The good news is that for now, the problem hasn't spread appreciably. Nigeria hasn't had a new case in a month, which was the ultimate nightmare scenario.