What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

[eyer]

http://static.infowars.com/2012/04/i/general/enlistirs.jpg

 

[garbage can]

Who's lance?

?

Sounds to me like Lance must have taken you apart big time.

Causing selective amnesia

 

[bra_man69]

He loves that glory hole shit. He probably works in a gas station and has a well radiused hole bored through the wall in the men's room with a sign that says "wanted dick daily.".

That is his job it's all about customer service.

 

[Dribble]

Maybe because your question is fucking stupid.
Most of the other country's economic it's as complex as the us is.

talk about stupid. Can anyone understand this?

 

[mercury14]

He loves that glory hole shit. He probably works in a gas station and has a well radiused hole bored through the wall in the men's room with a sign that says "wanted dick daily.".

What event in your life led you to embrace such vibrant homo-eroticism?

 

[richard_daily]

What event in your life led you to embrace such vibrant homo-eroticism?

He was born that way.

 

[Sean Renaud]

talk about stupid. Can anyone understand this?

After I recovered from the coma it put me in I put it on iggy. I suggest you do the same.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Defending Fiscal Insanity
By John R. Lott Jr., NRO
April 5, 2012 10:00 P.M.

In President Obama’s address to the Associated Press Luncheon on Wednesday, he claimed that he is preventing disaster. Republican congressman Paul Ryan’s proposed budget cuts would still allow publicly held debt to increase by $5.5 trillion over the next ten years, but to Obama, they mean Americans will be dying from starvation and defenseless from hurricanes and other natural disasters.

“Demagoguery” is not too strong of a word to describe Obama’s speech. Two million mothers and young children will be left without “access to healthy food.” Violent crime will soar and illegal aliens will flood across our borders because of cuts in law enforcement. “Hundreds of national parks” will close. We won’t be able to “protect the air we breathe, the water we drink, or the food that we eat.” Airline flights will be cancelled or delayed, and safety will be threatened in parts of the country. “Weather forecasts would become less accurate.” Governors and mayors will “wait longer to order evacuations in the event of a hurricane.” The list went on and on.

Remember how Obama promised that the stimulus spending was going to be temporary. But now Obama tells Americans that not only can’t this spending be trimmed, it must be increased dramatically. When the Congressional Budget Office evaluated Obama’s 2013 budget proposal in March, it concluded that his new spending was going to add another $3.5 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years, a deficit that was already expected to be huge.

As a candidate, Obama claimed that one cause of the economic crisis was the large deficits the country was running, and he promised that he would fix things by cutting government spending. During the third presidential debate, just over two weeks before the election, Obama promised to rein in the budget deficit.

When debate moderator Bob Schieffer asked Obama what he was going to do about the deficit, Obama promised to cut it: “But there is no doubt that we’ve been living beyond our means and we’re going to have to make some adjustments. Now, what I’ve done throughout this campaign is to propose a net spending cut.”

Or take Obama’s promise in the second presidential debate: “Actually, I’m cutting more than I’m spending so that it will be a net spending cut.” Obama ran to the right of McCain, who Obama claimed was the candidate who was going to increase spending.

So what did we get? Obama racked up the largest inflation-adjusted increases ever in government spending and the largest deficits (even larger than those the U.S. ran in the worst part of World War II), and it is hard to remember that his constant theme during the presidential debates was “net spending cut.”

Obama blamed the bad economy during the fall of 2008 on Bush’s profligate spending habits. Bush’s out-of-control spending, Obama pointed out, had caused the $500 billion expected deficit for 2009. He blamed the spending increases and deficits under Bush for the economic problems we were facing.

Just one week after the election, Obama began talking about up to a $500 billion stimulus. Two weeks after the election, Larry Summers told the Associated Press that the amount should be between $500 billion and $700 billion. In the end, it turned out to be $825 billion. Then there were four other jobs bills during the first two years of his administration.

There was no new economic announcement in the week after the election that could explain this complete reversal in Obama’s policies. The only economics number released soon after the election was the November 7 unemployment report, showing that the unemployment rate had risen from 6.6 to 6.8 percent. Not good, but hardly a crisis by itself and definitely not worse than Obama’s constant claim during the campaign that the economy was suffering the worst financial crisis since the Depression.

The most obvious explanation for the big switch in Obama’s position is that he always wanted a much bigger government, but he knew that Americans wouldn’t vote for him if he openly campaigned on it. If there was ever any doubt that Obama had lied to Americans when he promised that an Obama administration would make government smaller, people just needed to listen to his speech on Wednesday.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Defending Fiscal Insanity
By John R. Lott Jr., NRO
April 5, 2012 10:00 P.M.

Haven't seen you posting much bad economic news lately, Chief.

Aren't cinnamon prices down in Sri Lanka or something?

All we've seen from you lately are tired NRO cut-and-paste editorials telling us how the latest good economic news is actually bad for President Obama.

As beloved old Sensei K says "Stupid white belt half-breed! You lose another fight! You loser! You never win!"

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I'm not the one characterizing The Great Recovery as "virtual."

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

It wasn't all that long ago that massive debts were the underlying problem to our economy instead of "fairness."




Now out-of-control spending seems to be all the rage.

 

[NeverEndingMe]

He was born that way.

What event in your life led you to embrace such vibrant homo-eroticism?

awe look, Merc and is lover Dick aka Richard have cum out to play

with their endless dribble of:

we need more welfare
we need more taxes (tax others not us)

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

There is a rule acknowledged by all who ply their trade in politics that whatever one has written or said in the past easily can be interpreted in the future as having a different meaning than originally intended. Depending on how one desires to be considered currently, this can have either a positive or negative impact. This is the case with James Yong Kim, MD, nominated to be the head of the World Bank Group that has been built around what was originally named the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). Dr. Kim up to now has been the president of Dartmouth College and is the former head of the HIV/AIDS program of the World Health Organization.

It is unusual to nominate someone for this post whose background is in the field of public health rather than in some aspect of economics and/or management. It has been the theme of the Obama administration, however, to emphasize and separate out social concerns from economic issues to the point of judging economic growth by what liberal social benefits it might provide. Dr. Kim and two co-editors published a book in 2000, Dying for Growth. The key element in this book that has brought his nomination into question is found in the introduction: "The studies in this book present evidence that the quest for growth in GDP and corporate profits has in fact worsened the lives of millions of women and men."

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/04/06/a-world-bank-nomination-goes-s/print

A massive campaign must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States...,
John P. Holdren
White House Office of Science and Technology Director

"When I became the NASA administrator -- or before I became the NASA administrator -- he [Barack Obama] charged me with three things. One was he wanted me to help re-inspire children to want to get into science and math, he wanted me to expand our international relationships, and third, and perhaps foremost, he wanted me to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science ... and math and engineering...,"
Charles Bolden

“Somehow we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe.”
Obama Energy Secretary Steven Chu

It's not that hard to predict the future of the economy under a second term for President Obama.

 

[NeverEndingMe]

obama is a great example of "how not to run a government"

clearly, government must operate on a neutral cash flow, not obama massive debt

obama welfare is not a valid career path, and you obama supports should be ashamed

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Murray Rothbard put it another way:

In physics, the facts of nature are given to us. They may be broken down into their simple elements in the laboratory and their movements observed. On the other hand, we do not know the laws explaining the movements of physical particles; they are unmotivated.

Rothbard goes on to make the point that human action is motivated and thus economics is built on the basis of axioms. We can then deduce laws from these axioms, but, as Rothbard explains, "there are no simple elements of 'facts' in human action; the events of history are complex phenomena, which cannot 'test' anything."

Using the models that work so well for physicists, mathematicians on Wall Street got it spectacularly wrong in the mortgage and derivatives markets, just as mathematical economists can never predict the future with any accuracy. Motivated human behavior cannot be modeled.

But the mathematicians or "quants" underscore all of Wall Street's financial engineering, a process that takes a few pieces of paper and folds their attributes together to make new products, most times hoping to avoid taxes and regulation. Author Brendan Moynihan describes this engineering in his book Financial Origami: How the Wall Street Model Broke.

Origami is the traditional Japanese art of paper folding wherein amazing shapes and animals are created with just a few simple folds to a piece of paper. Moynihan cleverly extends the metaphor to the financial arena, pointing out that stocks, bonds, and insurance are pieces of paper simply folded by the Wall Street sales force into swaps, options, futures, derivatives of derivatives, and the like.

The author is adept at describing derivatives in terms a person can understand. Health-insurance premiums are a call option to have the insurance company pay for our medical care. Auto insurance premiums are like put options, allowing the insured to sell (put) his or her car, if it's totaled, to the insurer at blue-book value.

Nobel Prize winners have played a big hand in the creation of derivatives. Milton Friedman's paper on the need for futures markets in currencies paved the way for that market in 1971. But as Moynihan points out, it was Nixon's shutting of the gold window that created the need to mitigate currency and inflation risk.

Nobel Laureate Myron Scholes was cocreator of the Black-Scholes-Merton option-pricing model. He and cowinner Robert Merton used their model to blow-up Long Term Capital Management.

But it was little-known economist David X. Li's paper in the Journal of Fixed Income that would provide the intellectual foundation for Wall Street's flurry into mortgages. "On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach" became "the academic study used to support Wall Street's turning subprime mortgage pools into AAA-rated securities," writes Moynihan. "By the time it was over, the Street would create 64,000 AAA-rated securities, even though only 12 companies in the world had that rating."

Robert Stowe England, in his book Black Box Casino: How Wall Street's Risky Shadow Banking Crashed Global Finance, says Li's model "relied on the price history of credit default swaps against a given asset to determine the degree of correlation rather than rely on historical loan performance data."

"People got very excited about the Gaussian copula because of its mathematical elegance," says Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "but the thing never worked." Taleb, the author of The Black Swan, claims any attempt to measure correlation based on past history to be "charlatanism."

Subprime mortgages were bundled to become collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), which are a form of collateralized debt obligation(CDO). CDOs weren't new; the first rated CDO was assembled by Michael Milken in 1987. But instead of a mixture of investment-grade and junk corporate bonds, in the housing bubble, CDOs were rated AAA based upon Li's work.

Mr. England wryly points out, "A cynic might say that the CDO was invented to create a place to dump lower credit quality or junk bonds and hide them among better credits."

England quotes Michael Lewis, author of The Big Short: "The CDO was, in effect, a credit laundering service for the residents of Lower Middle Class America." For Wall Street it was a machine that "turned lead into gold."

Wall Street's CDO mania served to pump up investment-bank leverage. England explains that if level-3 securities were included (level-3 assets, which include CDOs, cannot be valued by using observable measures, such as market prices and models) then Bear Stearns sported leverage of 262 to 1 just before the crash. Lehman was close behind at 225, Morgan Stanley at 222, Citigroup at 212, and Goldman Sachs was levered at 200 to 1.

Leverage like that requires either perfection or eventual government bailout for survival.

The CDO market created the need for a way to bet against the CDOs and the credit-default-swap (CDS) market was born. Bundling the CDS together created synthetic CDOs. "With synthetic CDOs, Wall Street crossed over to The Matrix," writes England, "a world where reality is simulated by computers."

It's England's view that the CDO market "was the casino where the bets were placed. Wall Street became bigger and chancier than Las Vegas and Atlantic City combined — and more." According to Richard Zabel, the total notional value of the entire CDS market was $45 trillion by the end of 2007, at the same time the bond and structured vehicle markets totaled only $25 trillion.

So the speculative portion of the CDS market was at least $20 trillion with speculators betting on the possibility of a credit event for securities not owned by either party. England does not see this as a good thing. It's Mr. England's view that credit default swaps concentrated risk in certain financial institutions, instead of disbursing risk.

In "Credit Default Swaps from the Viewpoint of Libertarian Property Rights and Contract Credit Default Swaps Theory," published in Libertarian Papers, authors Thorsten Polleit and Jonathan Mariano contend, "The truth is that CDS provide investors with an efficient and effective instrument for exposing economically unsound and unsustainable fiat money regimes and the economic production structure it creates."

Polleit and Mariano explain that credit default swaps make a borrower's credit risk tradable. CDS is like an insurance policy written against the potential of a negative credit event. These derivatives, while being demonized by many observers, serve to increase "the disciplinary pressure on borrowers who are about to build up unsustainable debt levels to consolidate; or it makes borrowers who have become financially overstretched go into default."

Mr. England concludes his book saying, "We need a way forward to a safer, sounder financial system where the power of sunlight on financial institutions and markets helps enable free market discipline to work its invisible hand for the good of all."

Polleit and Mariano explain that it is the CDS market that provides that sunlight.

The panic of 2008 was the inevitable collapse of an increasingly rickety fiat-money and banking system — a system where the central bank attempts to direct and manipulate the nation's investment and production with an eye to maximize employment. In a speech delivered to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Jim Grant told the central bankers that interest rates should convey information. "But the only information conveyed in a manipulated yield curve is what the Fed wants."

Wall Street's math wizards convinced the Masters of the Universe that their numbers don't lie, believing they could model the Federal Reserve's house-of-mirrors market. Maybe the numbers don't lie, but the assumptions do.

Advising about mathematical economics, Rothbard wrote, "ignore the fancy welter of equations and look for the assumptions underneath. Invariably they are few in number, simple, and wrong." The same could be said for Dr. Li's model and Scholes's model before him.

Until the era of unstable fiat-money regimes ends, the search for scapegoats will continue — because the crashes will never end.

http://mises.org/daily/6000/Wall-Street-Math


This merc, is why all your analysis is pretty much horse shit that you keep digging up to support the political economy that you so believe in and why this "recovery" you celebrate cannot and will not last.

 

[Ulaven_Demorte]

http://mises.org/daily/6000/Wall-Street-Math


This merc, is why all your analysis is pretty much horse shit that you keep digging up to support the political economy that you so believe in and why this "recovery" you celebrate cannot and will not last.

Meanwhile, we're chugging along and the economic outlook is improving daily.

What's the timeline on the inevitable economic crash you keep predicting or do you just plan to sit tight for a few years and launch into celebrations if and when it happens?

 

[Beco]

Michael A. Fletcher 9:36 AM ET

The job market’s recent improvements dimmed as employers added 120,000 jobs, ticking the jobless rate down to 8.2 percent. The Labor Department report fell short of economists’ estimates, marking first time in months that fewer than 200,000 jobs were added.

 

[phrodeau]

(edited)

clearly, government must operate on a neutral cash flow...

Fuck that. We're in a recession and we're still at war.

 

[Beco]

washington post

Several analyses show that the mild winter boosted job growth by as much as 75,000 positions — an artificial inflation that economists say will be paid back in the coming months. Translation: The recent surge in hiring may not be as strong as it looks.

“We’re thinking that the economic data is going to lose some momentum from here going forward,” said Bob Baur, chief global economist for Principal Global Investors

 

[mercury14]

http://mises.org/daily/6000/Wall-Street-Math


This merc, is why all your analysis is pretty much horse shit that you keep digging up to support the political economy that you so believe in and why this "recovery" you celebrate cannot and will not last.

That article proves nothing of the sort.

So I take it you're still not on the market then? And haven't been since 2008?

 

[richard_daily]

washington post

Several analyses show that the mild winter boosted job growth by as much as 75,000 positions — an artificial inflation that economists say will be paid back in the coming months. Translation: The recent surge in hiring may not be as strong as it looks.

“We’re thinking that the economic data is going to lose some momentum from here going forward,” said Bob Baur, chief global economist for Principal Global Investors

Does this news make you happy?

 

[Disgustipated]

He's definitely a coward... there's no doubt about that.

Nope, none at all. The best part is in the post below he talks about someone hiding from him, when in fact he challenged to meet me and then wussed out. LT is one of his heroes obviously.

Coward? Ahahaha, like I really give a fuck about what a dumb fuck drug dealer has to say. I hold the little chickenshit in total contempt. If he was a man instead of a punk hiding behind his keyboard, I'd treat with with more respect. Until his mom teaches him some manners, he can go fuck himself on Iggy. And when I get tired of slapping you around chihuahua, you'll get there too.

Hey Dopey.... you're sounding like RDS..... Smarten up.

You're quite possibly the dumbest person here. Just look at vettebirther's post times, it's really not that hard though I don't expect you're smart enough to figure out how to do that.

 

[Beco]

Does this news make you happy?

fuck NO! I make a living off of growth.....numb nuts

 

[mercury14]

fuck NO! I make a living off of growth.....numb nuts

The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.2% and you go out and focus on whatever scraps of negative news you can?

Yes it makes you happy. You want to see Obama fail and you're smiling at the fact that this month's bls report wasn't as glowing as the past few.

 

[Disgustipated]

The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.2% and you go out and focus on whatever scraps of negative news you can?

Yes it makes you happy. You want to see Obama fail and you're smiling at the fact that this month's bls report wasn't as glowing as the past few.

Read this if you want to know the real reason Beco wants the President to fail.