trysail
Catch Me Who Can
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http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asSyYJghIOig&pos=5
Gundlach, Klarman See Bull Market Undermined by U.S. Budget Gap
By Charles Stein
Gundlach, Klarman See Bull Market Undermined by U.S. Budget Gap
By Charles Stein
March 15 (Bloomberg) -- As signs of a sustained U.S. recovery increase, so do the ranks of big-name investors warning that economic growth will be undercut by the rising federal budget deficit.
Shrinking the gap between government revenues and spending will reduce the nation’s standard of living, slow the economy and crimp returns on stocks and bonds, according to... Jeffrey Gundlach... Failing to fix the problem could trigger another financial crisis, said Robert Rodriguez...
“Unless we get government under control, we will see negative consequences in the form of higher inflation and higher interest rates,” Rodriguez... said...
Prominent investors including Seth Klarman... and David Einhorn... have sounded similar alarms. Concern that the expansion will be hurt by the deficit...
...U.S. net government debt will equal 74 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared with 42 percent in 2007... Japan, at 120 percent, has the highest debt burden among developed countries...
“When you are addicted to living beyond your means and you fill the gap with debt, you reach a point where you are going to feel the pain,” Gundlach said...
...higher debt-service payments will create an additional burden...
Blunt Assessment
...Klarman... is blunt in acknowledging the costs of cutting the deficit.
“Restoring fiscal sanity will be bad for the economy and financial markets,” he wrote in a Jan. 26 letter to clients. The alternative is worse, he said.
Positive Signs
“Governments that run huge deficits, promise entitlements that will be next-to-impossible to deliver and depend on the beneficence of foreigners to stay afloat inevitably must collapse -- perhaps not imminently, but eventually as Greece and Ireland have recently discovered,” he wrote.
Greece and Ireland accepted bailouts after the cost of financing their debt became unsustainable...
...Rodriguez told clients in 2009 that if the U.S. government didn’t get its finances in order, the nation would face a crisis in three to seven years that could rival the financial meltdown of 2008...
Music May Stop
“I haven’t changed my opinion,” Rodriguez said. He believes the next crisis could be triggered by investors balking at buying U.S. debt, which in turn could cause the dollar to plummet and interest rates to soar.
“You never know when the music is going to stop,” Rodriguez said...
...Rodriguez isn’t alone in warning that the next crisis could involve government debt.
“The global economy is in a period between two crises,” Greenlight’s Einhorn said...
‘Tough Spot’
The debt problems that caused the 2008 crisis have shifted from the private to the public sector without being addressed, Einhorn told Charlie Rose. The combination of “a very large budget deficit and a monetary policy that is extremely easy” could eventually bring the economy “to a tough spot,” Einhorn said.
The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark lending rate at between zero and 0.25 percent since December 2008...
...Rodriguez says there are glimmers of hope on the fiscal front. States such as Wisconsin, New Jersey and Ohio, he said, are trimming their deficits with spending cuts, potentially providing a road map for politicians in Washington.
“I don’t say it is impossible to change course, but the time frame is growing short,” he said.