The Problems and Possibilities of Artificial Intelligenc

[JohnEngelman]

Artificial intelligence could inaugurate an era of leisure and affluence in which the economic growth brought about by artificial intelligence can be spread around and no one would need to spend long hours in tedious, unpleasant jobs.

My fear is that the benefits of artificial intelligence will be restricted to the rich and the near rich while demagogues become powerful encouraging most of the rest of us to direct our anger horizontally and downward.

We need a new Franklin Roosevelt who will convince the majority of Americans that they benefit from a large, powerful, expensive government paid for by high taxes on rich people and corporations.

 

[TastySuckToy]

You simpletons just can't seem to figure it out.

The rich and corporations are the government, because gullible easily controlled voters keep voting them into power.

You scream how unfair it is some large business is raking in profits, while voluntarily walking through their doors and handing them your money.

 

[JohnEngelman]

You simpletons just can't seem to figure it out.

The rich and corporations are the government, because gullible easily controlled voters keep voting them into power.

You scream how unfair it is some large business is raking in profits, while voluntarily walking through their doors and handing them your money.

President Roosevelt's New Deal proved that the government could provide for most Americans a better life than they could achieve from laissez faire capitalism. We need a New Deal.

As more Americans become convinced that economic growth is not possible for them, they will choose economic redistribution.

 

[Hel_Books]

<fill in the blank> could inaugurate an era of leisure and affluence in which the economic growth brought about by <fill in the blank> can be spread around and no one would need to spend long hours in tedious, unpleasant jobs.

My fear is that . . .

Fill in the blanks above with any technological advance you can think of over the last two or three centuries!

 

[SebastianHolt]

Artificial intelligence could inaugurate an era of leisure and affluence in which the economic growth brought about by artificial intelligence can be spread around and no one would need to spend long hours in tedious, unpleasant jobs.

My fear is that the benefits of artificial intelligence will be restricted to the rich and the near rich while demagogues become powerful encouraging most of the rest of us to direct our anger horizontally and downward.

We need a new Franklin Roosevelt who will convince the majority of Americans that they benefit from a large, powerful, expensive government paid for by high taxes on rich people and corporations.

think we need to focus and lower taxes. northing good comes from higher taxes

 

[SebastianHolt]

President Roosevelt's New Deal proved that the government could provide for most Americans a better life than they could achieve from laissez faire capitalism. We need a New Deal.

As more Americans become convinced that economic growth is not possible for them, they will choose economic redistribution.

SCREW economic redistribution!

 

[Hel_Books]

SCREW economic redistribution!

Consider all that people get together in nations do to provide for the common good. We provide education to all, even those who can't pay for it, because it is good for the commonwealth. Similarly we provide such things as roads, clean sources of water and other infrastructure, police protection, food and drug safety inspections, medical care (in an emergency ward if nowhere else), a justice system (" If you cannot afford a lawyer, one will be appointed for you") and, of course, safety from external enemies provided by a military.

If you don't go for the "brother's keeper" thing (and I've noticed so many people who have some religious notions seem to forget that one) think in utilitarian terms: a population that is happy and prosperous means less need for you to worry that underpaid, underfed, ill-housed, possibly ill people might rise up and disturb your comfortable existence, the tumbrils rolling to the guillotine . . .

 

[AlexBailey]

Fill in the blanks above with any technological advance you can think of over the last two or three centuries!

No. Just no.

AI is going to disrupt society and employment structure far beyond what anything has previously done.

Don’t try to bullshit this away.

Market forces are making human workers obsolete on a scale and rate never seen before because it is quickly becoming cheaper to pay for the technology than to hassle with laborers.

 

[AlexBailey]

Meanwhile, there’s this pesky little mandate in the preamble of the US Constitution that says it was written in part to specifically “…promote the general welfare…”

 

[Hel_Books]

Hel_Books said:
Fill in the blanks above with any technological advance you can think of over the last two or three centuries!

No. Just no.

AI is going to disrupt society and employment structure far beyond what anything has previously done.

Don’t try to bullshit this away. Market forces are making human workers obsolete on a scale never seen before because it is quickly becoming cheaper to pay for the technology than to hassle with laborers.

Perhaps.

On the other hand, consider the disruption involved in going from an agricultural to a manufacturing economy, as happened in the nineteenth century, or moving from a manufacturing to a service economy in the twentieth.

Things will change a lot in the twenty-first century, because of all kinds of things (including AI), but this hyperbole about deepfakes and cat videos isn't likely to turn into Skynet.

 

[AlexBailey]

Perhaps.

On the other hand, consider the disruption involved in going from an agricultural to a manufacturing economy, as happened in the nineteenth century, or moving from a manufacturing to a service economy in the twentieth.

Things will change a lot in the twenty-first century, because of all kinds of things (including AI), but this hyperbole about deepfakes and cat videos isn't likely to turn into Skynet.

This isn’t about sci-fi fantasy.

This is many of the world’s largest employers, such as Amazon, having an economic responsibility to shareholders to reduce costs where they can. AI and automation are already doing this. Implementation is ramping up.

Don’t dismiss this as hyperbole. It’s economic reality.

 

[AlexBailey]

Another problem to deal with is that when an AI or robot replaces a human worker, the income tax base is reduced. Less money goes to the federal treasury and local government.

Giving all these high end tax breaks to billionaires and corporations allows them to invest in more technology - investments that are tax deductible.

Meanwhile fewer jobs means more citizens needing social assistance.

This is a very real problem.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-is-replacing-jobs-tax-it-like-any-worker-639a2deb

Opinion: AI is replacing jobs — so tax it like any worker​

“The United States already imposes a 15% fee on sales of specific AI chips to China, and though this is technically an export control, it shows how an AI input tax could work. Alternatively, others have suggested changing how we tax capital to account for AI-driven economic shifts. This would be an AI tax in spirit, but broader in form.”




https://www.entrepreneur.com/scienc...ur-key-employees-what-you-need-to-know/499183

Will AI Replace Your Key Employees? Here’s How to Prepare for What’s Ahead.​

Key Takeaways​

• AI is accelerating white-collar job reductions, especially in data-driven roles like software development, customer support and finance.
• AI is likely both a cause and accelerator of job losses. Companies use AI not only to automate tasks but also as a justification for streamlining operations and reducing their workforce.
• Leaders should identify roles where AI boosts productivity (not just cost savings), train employees on AI systems and redefine roles around creativity, strategy and areas AI can’t address.

 

[Hel_Books]

This isn’t about sci-fi fantasy.

This is many of the world’s largest employers, such as Amazon, having an economic responsibility to shareholders to reduce costs where they can. AI and automation are already doing this. Implementation is ramping up.

Don’t dismiss this as hyperbole. It’s economic reality.

There will, of course, be many changes. But "far beyond what anything has previously" is just hyperbole. I'm willing to believe that the changes over the twenty-first century may be greater than that of the twentieth, which was greater than that of the nineteenth, etc. etc. etc. But AI will just be one part of those changes. In the twentieth century, for example, the atomic bomb was supposed to change everything radically. It did change things, (and if nuclear weapons are actually used again it will change things really radically), but it was just one element of a great century of change.

Look at what else is happening or will happen: climate change, the fertility bust (by some estimates, China's population will be cut in half by the end of the century), plastics in the environment, work-from-home, female emancipation, gay liberation, deforestation, desertification, water wars, expansion of civil liberties (or their curtailment, if the authoritarians get the upper hand), competition for resources like the "rare earths," drone warfare technology, "crypto"-currencies, medical advances (or retreats, if the Trump/RFKjr trend picks up), internet interconnected culture (and mobs), . . .

 

[AlexBailey]

There will, of course, be many changes. But "far beyond what anything has previously" is just hyperbole. I'm willing to believe that the changes over the twenty-first century may be greater than that of the twentieth, which was greater than that of the nineteenth, etc. etc. etc. But AI will just be one part of those changes. In the twentieth century, for example, the atomic bomb was supposed to change everything radically. It did change things, (and if nuclear weapons are actually used again it will change things really radically), but it was just one element of a great century of change.

Yes. Far beyond. No hyperbole.

Check back on this thread in two years.

 

[Hel_Books]

Yes. Far beyond. No hyperbole.

Check back on this thread in two years.

But why do you think so? So many things seem quite amazing when you first see them. Imagine the first talking pictures, or the reaction to the birth control pill.

Why do you think AI will be so much different?

 

[AlexBailey]

But why do you think so? So many things seem quite amazing when you first see them. Imagine the first talking pictures, or the reaction to the birth control pill.

Why do you think AI will be so much different?

Because there is an immediate and large economic advantage for business to replace workers over a broad range of professions.

 

[Hel_Books]

Because there is an immediate and large economic advantage for business to replace workers over a broad range of professions.

Perhaps. But how is that more dramatic than the advances in mechanical automation in the twentieth century, or the shift from an agricultural economy to an industrial one in the nineteenth?

Most likely, the changes will be significant, but not hyperbolic.

But who really knows?

 

[John_von_Neumann]

A fully realized, generally intelligent automaton could displace any human cognitive or physical activity. That's the hallmark of AI worries today.

 

[Lazaran]

Perhaps. But how is that more dramatic than the advances in mechanical automation in the twentieth century, or the shift from an agricultural economy to an industrial one in the nineteenth?

Most likely, the changes will be significant, but not hyperbolic.

But who really knows?

I believe AB is suggesting it is all about the pace of the replacement of workers (and thus, tax revenue).

Even when the previous events you mentioned happened, there was a fairly slow transition of HUMAN workers in agriculture to HUMAN workers in Industry.

Now???

 

[Hel_Books]

I believe AB is suggesting it is all about the pace of the replacement of workers (and thus, tax revenue).

Even when the previous events you mentioned happened, there was a fairly slow transition of HUMAN workers in agriculture to HUMAN workers in Industry.

Now???

Perhaps. But remember how fast we went from "Grandma can't work her cell phone," to "See what Grandma's posting on her blog!"

 

[Lazaran]

Perhaps. But remember how fast we went from "Grandma can't work her cell phone," to "See what Grandma's posting on her blog!"

Not quite comparable (relevant???)…

 

[Hel_Books]

Hel_Books said:
Perhaps. But remember how fast we went from "Grandma can't work her cell phone," to "See what Grandma's posting on her blog!"

Not quite comparable…

I was just reminding you that people's intellects can change just as fast as technology can.

 

[BrightShinyGirl]

Tech bros have bought into the hype, but AI is nowhere near ready for primetime. The big companies have gone all in on it because they're gambling on it being the next big thing, but so far it hasn't delivered on any of its promises. The chief danger it poses is that dumb managers will fire all their talented and experienced workers, and won't realize they're fucked until projects start failing and airplanes start falling out of the sky.

 

[Lazaran]

I was just reminding you that people's intellects can change just as fast as technology can.

Um, we’re kinda bumping up against the ceiling / economic reality at this point.

Fortunately, I hear there are going to be a lot of high paying openings in farming (harvesting) & hospitality,, etc in the coming year(s).

I’m sure things will all balance out…



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[Lazaran]

Tech bros have bought into the hype, but AI is nowhere near ready for primetime. The big companies have gone all in on it because they're gambling on it being the next big thing, but so far it hasn't delivered on any of its promises. The chief danger it poses is that dumb managers will fire all their talented and experienced workers, and won't realize they're fucked until projects start failing and airplanes start falling out of the sky.

One point I would dispute:

Artificial Intelligence IS ready for prime time when it comes to eliminating certain good paying jobs in management & research (even entry level management / research jobs).

Feel free to disagree.





We. Told. Them. So.