HisArpy
Loose canon extraordinair
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2016
- Posts
- 42,561
This may seem like a cynical view but I am coming round to the possibility that peace is not necessarily the best solution, nor is it in the best interests of the major parties. A long drawn out 'forever' war has much to be said for it. An indecisive deadlock will wear both Russia and Ukraine out. Ukraine will suffer the most because its industry is stuffed but it is still capable of feeding itself. Russia almost needs the war because sanctions have paralyzed its economy to the extent that arms production and corruption are the only viable economic sectors. China and India are extracting huge benefits through very cheap oil/gas/resources from Russia whilst being careful to avoid becoming arms suppliers. For a fairly modest investment in Arms the Europeans are content to see Russia impoverished and kept in check. Turkey has re-asserted itself as controllers of the Black Sea something they never attempted when the USSR was in power.
The USA's position is all over the place. If someone could convince DJT that he doesn't have a snowballs chance in Hell of the Nobel Peace Prize ,that might give DJT the incentive to actually help Ukraine rather than just make empty promises. The US could do this reasonably cheaply, firstly through the supply of intelligence to Ukraine and secondly by stopping the obstruction to other countries willing to supply arms. In the long run Ukraine will never be a great power but it is in the USA's fundamental interests to ensure Russia never recovers. In similar vein it would make sense for the USA to stir up trouble between China and Russia - particularly in the Amur Basin where they have a long standing unresolved territorial dispute.
What Iran or Korea might do is of no consequence, just good news stories on a slow day.
50,000 dead Ukrainians each year and 200,000 dead Russians is sad for them but not an unreasonable price for the rest of the world. And as one Russian Police chief allegedly commented 'it has at least cut the prison population.'
The problem with this idea is that whenever any society's sole purpose is focused on a never ending war, it's very dangerous to be their neighbor.