Will There Be a Presidential Debate?

*chuckle*

The Man in Orange does the Folsom Prison debate...


... now, THAT's must-see TV!
 
The Debate: I asked about this because I harken back to Nixon-Kennedy where Nixon sweated and Kennedy looked young and healthy and in this new medium, the audience judged performance by appearance and on words/policy. He’s terrified, or at least his handlers are, of the Kennedy Effect: How he will appear on camera compared to Trump more than what he will say.

Remember, he’s an elderly man with a poor memory, but Trump is too old to run for office because he has dementia…

No worries mate!
Let's debate!


*calliope music*
 
The Debate: I asked about this because I harken back to Nixon-Kennedy where Nixon sweated and Kennedy looked young and healthy and in this new medium, the audience judged performance by appearance and on words/policy. He’s terrified, or at least his handlers are, of the Kennedy Effect: How he will appear on camera compared to Trump more than what he will say.

Remember, he’s an elderly man with a poor memory, but Trump is too old to run for office because he has dementia…

No worries mate!
Let's debate!


*calliope music*
He would look weak & frail in a debate. Would he even be able to stay awake?
 
Grandpa wants a debate!

He gets to set the rules! And, damnit! Trump agreed!

He gets to limit Trump to Biden-sized responses! Mute him! Muzzle him!

Now he get to take Trump out to the schoolyard or out behind the shed and give him a whooping!



Put me down as continuing to be skeptical...
 
No one on the left is concerned about Biden. He can answer questions about policy and has a legislative record to run on. If I were the moderator my first question to trump would be: You now promise to pardon J6ers. Yet, you easily could have between J6 and when you left office but instead you pardoned Steve Bannon who fleeced your supporters. Why didn’t you pardon them then and why should they believe you now?
 
The Debate: I asked about this because I harken back to Nixon-Kennedy where Nixon sweated and Kennedy looked young and healthy and in this new medium, the audience judged performance by appearance and on words/policy. He’s terrified, or at least his handlers are, of the Kennedy Effect: How he will appear on camera compared to Trump more than what he will say.

Remember, he’s an elderly man with a poor memory, but Trump is too old to run for office because he has dementia…

No worries mate!
Let's debate!


*calliope music*
The Biden campaign is making a rational move. The candidate is significantly behind in key battleground states, has abysmal approval ratings on the issues voters say are most important, and is losing support among segments he absolutely needs - blacks, Hispanics, and young people. Most voters have already decided who they’re voting for and if Biden cannot cement some gains among undecided independents soon, he’s toast. They need something to change the trajectory of this race, and they need it now. June 27 can’t come soon enough.

Yes, it’s risky. But the alternative is do nothing and remain in second place. And expectations will be low. As long as he gets through these without a fatal mistake, he won’t be any worse off.
 
The Biden campaign is making a rational move.
Both candidates have their issues with voters they must overcome. Interesting that the person here who has embraced being a polling wonk can find time to wax poetic about Biden numbers that derive from limited landline polling yet the very real numbers facing trump from the actual voting electorate he says a big fat nada.


 
The Biden campaign is making a rational move. The candidate is significantly behind in key battleground states, has abysmal approval ratings on the issues voters say are most important, and is losing support among segments he absolutely needs - blacks, Hispanics, and young people. Most voters have already decided who they’re voting for and if Biden cannot cement some gains among undecided independents soon, he’s toast. They need something to change the trajectory of this race, and they need it now. June 27 can’t come soon enough.

Yes, it’s risky. But the alternative is do nothing and remain in second place. And expectations will be low. As long as he gets through these without a fatal mistake, he won’t be any worse off.
Who do you think is going to land more women voters?
 
His sole focus is not to enlighten anyone on voter metrics in a fair manner. He’s trying to suppress voter turn out in November by planting seeds of doubt now.
Much like Trump is trying to destroy democracy.
 
Both candidates have their issues with voters they must overcome. Interesting that the person here who has embraced being a polling wonk can find time to wax poetic about Biden numbers that derive from limited landline polling yet the very real numbers facing trump from the actual voting electorate he says a big fat nada.
I’m not sure what makes you think pollsters these days rely exclusively on landlines. Very few people even have landlines.

“The New York Times/Siena College Poll is conducted by phone using live interviewers at call centers based in Florida, New York, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Respondents are randomly selected from a national list of registered voters, and we call voters both on landlines and cellphones.”
 
I’m not sure what makes you think pollsters these days rely exclusively on landlines. Very few people even have landlines.

“The New York Times/Siena College Poll is conducted by phone using live interviewers at call centers based in Florida, New York, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Respondents are randomly selected from a national list of registered voters, and we call voters both on landlines and cellphones.”
Would you like even more time treading water rather than replying?
I asked for your take, as the proclaimed pollster here, on actual election numbers. You care to wade in the mire of opinion.
 
Would you like even more time treading water rather than replying?
I asked for your take, as the proclaimed pollster here, on actual election numbers. You care to wade in the mire of opinion.
I did reply. You said Biden’s numbers are derived from limited landline polling. That’s demonstrably false. The vast majority of phone interviews these days are conducted via cell phones. Cell phone interviews comprised more than 90% of interviews in the most recent NYT-Siena battleground state polls.

My take is that polling represents a snapshot in time. Polling is the best way to gage voter sentiment. That’s why professionally run campaigns spend so much time and money on them. Right now they don’t look good for the president.
 
Who do you think is going to land more women voters?
This is all conjecture on my part but black females are the staunchest democratic voting bloc and I don’t foresee that changing this election. There will always be douche black males who fall for machismo and misogyny but they are not as solid a voting bloc for republicans to rely on. The demographic that will be the deciding vote, imo, will be the conservative white female. I believe trump garnered 73% of that vote last election. He cannot win losing a percentage point there. But, hey, I don’t consider polling my thang.
 
I did reply. You said Biden’s numbers are derived from limited landline polling. That’s demonstrably false. The vast majority of phone interviews these days are conducted via cell phones. Cell phone interviews comprised more than 90% of interviews in the most recent NYT-Siena battleground state polls.

My take is that polling represents a snapshot in time. Polling is the best way to gage voter sentiment. That’s why professionally run campaigns spend so much time and money on them. Right now they don’t look good for the president.
Fuck me!
I hate repeating questions!

I don’t care really about polling.
I’ve been attacking YOUR character!
Have I not done that well enough???

Listen up. Last week, the state of Indiana had a primary vote and Nikki Haley garnered 21.7% of republican votes. As the designated pollster here, instead of giving opinion polls and your biased takes on Biden, how about addressing the actual freakin republican voters who’s voting numbers continue to climb for a zombie candidate that’s not been running almost 2 months. Explain how that affects trump. Sheez!
 
Fuck me!
I hate repeating questions!

I don’t care really about polling.
I’ve been attacking YOUR character!
Have I not done that well enough???

Listen up. Last week, the state of Indiana had a primary vote and Nikki Haley garnered 21.7% of republican votes. As the designated pollster here, instead of giving opinion polls and your biased takes on Biden, how about addressing the actual freakin republican voters who’s voting numbers continue to climb for a zombie candidate that’s not been running almost 2 months. Explain how that affects trump. Sheez!
I don’t care if you attack my character but I’m not going to waste time responding to that nonsense. I’m presenting polling data and correcting you on how polls I cite are conducted.

To your question about about the primary in Indiana, it tells us that 21.7% voted for Nikki Haley even though she had ended her candidacy.

She will not be on the ballot in November.

Do you think Indiana is a battleground state? Do you think those that voted for Nikki in the primary are going to vote for Biden in November? I don’t. Trump beat Biden by 16 points in 2020. The most recent head to head poll I’ve seen in Indiana was run by Emerson. It has Trump over Biden by 21 points.
 
I don’t care if you attack my character but I’m not going to waste time responding to that nonsense. I’m presenting polling data and correcting you on how polls I cite are conducted.

To your question about about the primary in Indiana, it tells us that 21.7% voted for Nikki Haley even though she had ended her candidacy.

She will not be on the ballot in November.

Do you think Indiana is a battleground state? Do you think those that voted for Nikki in the primary are going to vote for Biden in November? I don’t. Trump beat Biden by 16 points in 2020. The most recent head to head poll I’ve seen in Indiana was run by Emerson. It has Trump over Biden by 21 points.
I know you don’t care. But no one should respect you as a fair arbiter of polling information. I will continue to call out your BS and watch with interest if this troubling indicator for trump continues.
 
To your question about about the primary in Indiana, it tells us that 21.7% voted for Nikki Haley even though she had ended her candidacy.

She will not be on the ballot in November.

Do you think Indiana is a battleground state? Do you think those that voted for Nikki in the primary are going to vote for Biden in November? I don’t. Trump beat Biden by 16 points in 2020. The most recent head to head poll I’ve seen in Indiana was run by Emerson. It has Trump over Biden by 21 points.
I actually think the Haley voters won't participate in November. I've heard some interesting analysis that RFK voters are likely taking away from 45's votes though I think there's a lot of cross tabs that results differently.
 
I don’t care if you attack my character but I’m not going to waste time responding to that nonsense. I’m presenting polling data and correcting you on how polls I cite are conducted.

To your question about about the primary in Indiana, it tells us that 21.7% voted for Nikki Haley even though she had ended her candidacy.

She will not be on the ballot in November.

Do you think Indiana is a battleground state? Do you think those that voted for Nikki in the primary are going to vote for Biden in November? I don’t. Trump beat Biden by 16 points in 2020. The most recent head to head poll I’ve seen in Indiana was run by Emerson. It has Trump over Biden by 21 points.
If you spent as much time trying to get sober as you do on the meaningless minutiae of meaningless polls, you would be a lot more fun.
 
I know you don’t care. But no one should respect you as a fair arbiter of polling information. I will continue to call out your BS and watch with interest if this troubling indicator for trump continues.
Good news! You can go straight to the source of the polls I share and bypass my observations. In case you missed it, here’s the link to the NYT article on its most recent battleground states poll. It summarizes the results and you can access the raw data and methodology as well. The methodology will help clear up your misunderstanding about landline interviews.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html
 
I actually think the Haley voters won't participate in November. I've heard some interesting analysis that RFK voters are likely taking away from 45's votes though I think there's a lot of cross tabs that results differently.
IDK. I voted for her even though she was dead in the water. We can all speculate on why people voted for Haley and what they might do in November, but the best indicators we have to look at now is polling data that asks likely voters who they plan to vote for in a head-to-head match up and a multi-candidate contest involving RFK Jr. and the others. Most of the major polls, including NYT-Siena do ask questions to gage how likely the respondents are to show up.
 
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