JoePepsiCo
Headliner
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2023
- Posts
- 4,460
*chuckle*
The Man in Orange does the Folsom Prison debate...
... now, THAT's must-see TV!
The Man in Orange does the Folsom Prison debate...
... now, THAT's must-see TV!
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He would look weak & frail in a debate. Would he even be able to stay awake?The Debate: I asked about this because I harken back to Nixon-Kennedy where Nixon sweated and Kennedy looked young and healthy and in this new medium, the audience judged performance by appearance and on words/policy. He’s terrified, or at least his handlers are, of the Kennedy Effect: How he will appear on camera compared to Trump more than what he will say.
Remember, he’s an elderly man with a poor memory, but Trump is too old to run for office because he has dementia…
No worries mate!
Let's debate!
*calliope music*
The Biden campaign is making a rational move. The candidate is significantly behind in key battleground states, has abysmal approval ratings on the issues voters say are most important, and is losing support among segments he absolutely needs - blacks, Hispanics, and young people. Most voters have already decided who they’re voting for and if Biden cannot cement some gains among undecided independents soon, he’s toast. They need something to change the trajectory of this race, and they need it now. June 27 can’t come soon enough.The Debate: I asked about this because I harken back to Nixon-Kennedy where Nixon sweated and Kennedy looked young and healthy and in this new medium, the audience judged performance by appearance and on words/policy. He’s terrified, or at least his handlers are, of the Kennedy Effect: How he will appear on camera compared to Trump more than what he will say.
Remember, he’s an elderly man with a poor memory, but Trump is too old to run for office because he has dementia…
No worries mate!
Let's debate!
*calliope music*
Both candidates have their issues with voters they must overcome. Interesting that the person here who has embraced being a polling wonk can find time to wax poetic about Biden numbers that derive from limited landline polling yet the very real numbers facing trump from the actual voting electorate he says a big fat nada.The Biden campaign is making a rational move.
Who do you think is going to land more women voters?The Biden campaign is making a rational move. The candidate is significantly behind in key battleground states, has abysmal approval ratings on the issues voters say are most important, and is losing support among segments he absolutely needs - blacks, Hispanics, and young people. Most voters have already decided who they’re voting for and if Biden cannot cement some gains among undecided independents soon, he’s toast. They need something to change the trajectory of this race, and they need it now. June 27 can’t come soon enough.
Yes, it’s risky. But the alternative is do nothing and remain in second place. And expectations will be low. As long as he gets through these without a fatal mistake, he won’t be any worse off.
His sole focus is not to enlighten anyone on voter metrics in a fair manner. He’s trying to suppress voter turn out in November by planting seeds of doubt now.Who do you think is going to land more women voters?
Much like Trump is trying to destroy democracy.His sole focus is not to enlighten anyone on voter metrics in a fair manner. He’s trying to suppress voter turn out in November by planting seeds of doubt now.
I’m not sure what makes you think pollsters these days rely exclusively on landlines. Very few people even have landlines.Both candidates have their issues with voters they must overcome. Interesting that the person here who has embraced being a polling wonk can find time to wax poetic about Biden numbers that derive from limited landline polling yet the very real numbers facing trump from the actual voting electorate he says a big fat nada.
Biden.Who do you think is going to land more women voters?
That, imo, is what D’s need to hammer.Much like Trump is trying to destroy democracy.
Would you like even more time treading water rather than replying?I’m not sure what makes you think pollsters these days rely exclusively on landlines. Very few people even have landlines.
“The New York Times/Siena College Poll is conducted by phone using live interviewers at call centers based in Florida, New York, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Respondents are randomly selected from a national list of registered voters, and we call voters both on landlines and cellphones.”
I did reply. You said Biden’s numbers are derived from limited landline polling. That’s demonstrably false. The vast majority of phone interviews these days are conducted via cell phones. Cell phone interviews comprised more than 90% of interviews in the most recent NYT-Siena battleground state polls.Would you like even more time treading water rather than replying?
I asked for your take, as the proclaimed pollster here, on actual election numbers. You care to wade in the mire of opinion.
This is all conjecture on my part but black females are the staunchest democratic voting bloc and I don’t foresee that changing this election. There will always be douche black males who fall for machismo and misogyny but they are not as solid a voting bloc for republicans to rely on. The demographic that will be the deciding vote, imo, will be the conservative white female. I believe trump garnered 73% of that vote last election. He cannot win losing a percentage point there. But, hey, I don’t consider polling my thang.Who do you think is going to land more women voters?
Fuck me!I did reply. You said Biden’s numbers are derived from limited landline polling. That’s demonstrably false. The vast majority of phone interviews these days are conducted via cell phones. Cell phone interviews comprised more than 90% of interviews in the most recent NYT-Siena battleground state polls.
My take is that polling represents a snapshot in time. Polling is the best way to gage voter sentiment. That’s why professionally run campaigns spend so much time and money on them. Right now they don’t look good for the president.
I don’t care if you attack my character but I’m not going to waste time responding to that nonsense. I’m presenting polling data and correcting you on how polls I cite are conducted.Fuck me!
I hate repeating questions!
I don’t care really about polling.
I’ve been attacking YOUR character!
Have I not done that well enough???
Listen up. Last week, the state of Indiana had a primary vote and Nikki Haley garnered 21.7% of republican votes. As the designated pollster here, instead of giving opinion polls and your biased takes on Biden, how about addressing the actual freakin republican voters who’s voting numbers continue to climb for a zombie candidate that’s not been running almost 2 months. Explain how that affects trump. Sheez!
I know you don’t care. But no one should respect you as a fair arbiter of polling information. I will continue to call out your BS and watch with interest if this troubling indicator for trump continues.I don’t care if you attack my character but I’m not going to waste time responding to that nonsense. I’m presenting polling data and correcting you on how polls I cite are conducted.
To your question about about the primary in Indiana, it tells us that 21.7% voted for Nikki Haley even though she had ended her candidacy.
She will not be on the ballot in November.
Do you think Indiana is a battleground state? Do you think those that voted for Nikki in the primary are going to vote for Biden in November? I don’t. Trump beat Biden by 16 points in 2020. The most recent head to head poll I’ve seen in Indiana was run by Emerson. It has Trump over Biden by 21 points.
I actually think the Haley voters won't participate in November. I've heard some interesting analysis that RFK voters are likely taking away from 45's votes though I think there's a lot of cross tabs that results differently.To your question about about the primary in Indiana, it tells us that 21.7% voted for Nikki Haley even though she had ended her candidacy.
She will not be on the ballot in November.
Do you think Indiana is a battleground state? Do you think those that voted for Nikki in the primary are going to vote for Biden in November? I don’t. Trump beat Biden by 16 points in 2020. The most recent head to head poll I’ve seen in Indiana was run by Emerson. It has Trump over Biden by 21 points.
If you spent as much time trying to get sober as you do on the meaningless minutiae of meaningless polls, you would be a lot more fun.I don’t care if you attack my character but I’m not going to waste time responding to that nonsense. I’m presenting polling data and correcting you on how polls I cite are conducted.
To your question about about the primary in Indiana, it tells us that 21.7% voted for Nikki Haley even though she had ended her candidacy.
She will not be on the ballot in November.
Do you think Indiana is a battleground state? Do you think those that voted for Nikki in the primary are going to vote for Biden in November? I don’t. Trump beat Biden by 16 points in 2020. The most recent head to head poll I’ve seen in Indiana was run by Emerson. It has Trump over Biden by 21 points.
Good news! You can go straight to the source of the polls I share and bypass my observations. In case you missed it, here’s the link to the NYT article on its most recent battleground states poll. It summarizes the results and you can access the raw data and methodology as well. The methodology will help clear up your misunderstanding about landline interviews.I know you don’t care. But no one should respect you as a fair arbiter of polling information. I will continue to call out your BS and watch with interest if this troubling indicator for trump continues.
IDK. I voted for her even though she was dead in the water. We can all speculate on why people voted for Haley and what they might do in November, but the best indicators we have to look at now is polling data that asks likely voters who they plan to vote for in a head-to-head match up and a multi-candidate contest involving RFK Jr. and the others. Most of the major polls, including NYT-Siena do ask questions to gage how likely the respondents are to show up.I actually think the Haley voters won't participate in November. I've heard some interesting analysis that RFK voters are likely taking away from 45's votes though I think there's a lot of cross tabs that results differently.
Hahahaha...Trump says, "let's get ready to rumble" and the White House is thinking I hope Joe's doesn't mumble or tumble.President Joe Biden is in no way, shape or form "senile" by any definition of the word.