JohnEngelman
Virgin
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- Jan 8, 2022
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Because I enjoy investigating different points of view, I am always willing to read a good argument, and frequently willing to read a bad argument. In The Leveling Wind, which is an anthology of George Will’s columns and speeches from 1990 to 1994 I had the opportunity to read both.
In February 28, 1994 Will made a speech in the Reagan Library. He made three assertions that merit scrutiny. First, “By the time President Reagan left office the deficit, as a percentage of [Gross Domestic Product] GDP had been declining for six years.”
If you click on the following website:
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287
You will find a chart compiled by The Balance that shows how the national debt in dollars, and as a percentage of GDP, has fluctuated from 1929 to 2022. The Balance got its data from ten sources, including three from the United States Department of the Treasury, one from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and one from The World Bank Group.
1980 was the last full year Jimmy Carter was president. During that year the national debt was $908 billion. The national debt as a percentage of GDP was 32%.
The last six years Reagan was president were 1983 to 1988. In 1983 the national debt was $1,377 billion. The national debt as a percentage of GDP was 37%. In 1988 the national debt was $2,802 billion. The national debt as a percentage of GDP was 50%.
Second Will wrote, “The key to America’s success has been job creation – 19 million in the Reagan years.”
According to a Wall Street Journal article that appeared Jan 9, 2009, during the Carter administration an average of approximately 2,600,000 jobs were created every year. During the Reagan administration that declined to approximately 2,000,000 jobs created every year.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/01/09/bush-on-jobs-the-worst-track-record-on-record/
Correct my arithmetic if you need to, but according to my calculations: 2,000,000 x 8 = 16 million. Moreover, President Carter had better numbers on job creation. Don’t argue with me about that. Argue with The Wall Street Journal.
Finally Will wrote, “Nowadays, economic distress moves America to the right, not the left.”
Economic distress still hurts the party that occupies the White House. During the campaign of 1976 Carter invented the term “misery index.” The misery index is computed by adding the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. Carter was able to show that during the eight years Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford had been president the misery index rose. Unfortunately for Carter, the misery index continued to rise during the Carter administration. Reagan was elected in 1980.
During the 1992 campaign between President George H.W.Bush and Bill Clinton there was a recession. Clinton said, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and was elected.
Another factor, which Will hints at, is that when class is the issue, as it certainly was during the Great Depression, Democrats win. When race is the issue, as it was in 1988, and has been periodically since then, Republicans win.
Will makes his best arguments when he points out how the good intentions of President Johnson’s Great Society have usually yielded bad results. After the assassination of President Kennedy there were five years of increasingly destructive black ghetto riots. There were more enduring increases in crime and illegitimacy among blacks and whites.
George Will is a man of impressive intelligence and learning. This is obvious from reading “The Leveling Wind.” Unfortunately, and like most people, he occasionally allows his likes and dislikes to distort his judgment of what is true and false. I do that too, but I try not to.
In February 28, 1994 Will made a speech in the Reagan Library. He made three assertions that merit scrutiny. First, “By the time President Reagan left office the deficit, as a percentage of [Gross Domestic Product] GDP had been declining for six years.”
If you click on the following website:
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287
You will find a chart compiled by The Balance that shows how the national debt in dollars, and as a percentage of GDP, has fluctuated from 1929 to 2022. The Balance got its data from ten sources, including three from the United States Department of the Treasury, one from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and one from The World Bank Group.
1980 was the last full year Jimmy Carter was president. During that year the national debt was $908 billion. The national debt as a percentage of GDP was 32%.
The last six years Reagan was president were 1983 to 1988. In 1983 the national debt was $1,377 billion. The national debt as a percentage of GDP was 37%. In 1988 the national debt was $2,802 billion. The national debt as a percentage of GDP was 50%.
Second Will wrote, “The key to America’s success has been job creation – 19 million in the Reagan years.”
According to a Wall Street Journal article that appeared Jan 9, 2009, during the Carter administration an average of approximately 2,600,000 jobs were created every year. During the Reagan administration that declined to approximately 2,000,000 jobs created every year.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/01/09/bush-on-jobs-the-worst-track-record-on-record/
Correct my arithmetic if you need to, but according to my calculations: 2,000,000 x 8 = 16 million. Moreover, President Carter had better numbers on job creation. Don’t argue with me about that. Argue with The Wall Street Journal.
Finally Will wrote, “Nowadays, economic distress moves America to the right, not the left.”
Economic distress still hurts the party that occupies the White House. During the campaign of 1976 Carter invented the term “misery index.” The misery index is computed by adding the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. Carter was able to show that during the eight years Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford had been president the misery index rose. Unfortunately for Carter, the misery index continued to rise during the Carter administration. Reagan was elected in 1980.
During the 1992 campaign between President George H.W.Bush and Bill Clinton there was a recession. Clinton said, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and was elected.
Another factor, which Will hints at, is that when class is the issue, as it certainly was during the Great Depression, Democrats win. When race is the issue, as it was in 1988, and has been periodically since then, Republicans win.
Will makes his best arguments when he points out how the good intentions of President Johnson’s Great Society have usually yielded bad results. After the assassination of President Kennedy there were five years of increasingly destructive black ghetto riots. There were more enduring increases in crime and illegitimacy among blacks and whites.
George Will is a man of impressive intelligence and learning. This is obvious from reading “The Leveling Wind.” Unfortunately, and like most people, he occasionally allows his likes and dislikes to distort his judgment of what is true and false. I do that too, but I try not to.
