England, Scotland & Wales about to be hit with massive increase in electricity prices

[SEVERUSMAX]

Both parties have their "ostrich" issues. Their heads are buried in the sand. For the Left, energy policy is one of those. The Right has this one nailed. No sane leader would permit us to become so dependent on foreign oil that our national security is now jeopardized. But the Left insists on the dumbest energy policy since the Carter years. We shouldn't be at the mercy of the Saudis, Nigerians, and Venezuelans.

On the other hand, the Right is batshit insane on gays. They need to grow up and stop thinking that gay means sissy. That's what it comes down to....they don't want to back the pansies. Beneath the religious dogma, that's the core of it.

[trysail]

The pie-eyed, magical-thinking "world savers" in Europe have a date with reality sometime in the not-too-distant future. With Germany proposing to shut down its entire nuclear generating fleet and the innumerates in England and Scotland planning to power a modern economy using pinwheels and sunshine, two lines are going to intersect and the result ain't gonna be pretty or popular.


______________

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...grid-says.html



French Set for Power Gap in Three Years on Nuclear Shutdowns
By Tara Patel
September 5, 2012

France is heading for a shortage of generating capacity within three years because of the planned closing of outdated fossil-fuel plants and two nuclear reactors, grid operator Reseau de Transport d’Electricite said.

Power supply will be assured until 2015, when as much as 7.6 gigawatts of coal and heating fuel-fired power plants may be phased out, RTE said today in a report. The gap will reach 1.2 gigawatts in 2016 and 2.1 gigawatts in 2017 as two generators at the Fessenheim atomic plant are shut by President Francois Hollande, who has pledged to cut reliance on nuclear power.

“We aren’t being alarmist,” Dominique Maillard, president of RTE, told reporters. The French grid is warning that new high-voltage lines and more capacity to carry power across borders with neighboring countries are needed, he said.

France, which gets more than three-quarters of its power from nuclear, has imported increasing amounts of electricity since 2001 as demand outpaces supply at peak periods. Lawmakers say a German decision to shut atomic plants adds to the strain.

Hollande, elected in May, vowed to close the Fessenheim reactors by about the end of his term in May 2017.

“The French power system is singularly sensitive to changes in temperature and isn’t shielded from shortages in the case of an extreme weather event,” RTE said in the report.

Demand rose to a record 102.1 gigawatts during a cold snap in February, met partly through imports. These reached a record 9 gigawatts, a level that “strained the physical limits” of interconnection capacity with neighboring countries, RTE said.

Coal-Fired
Some French power projects have been delayed and others abandoned for being unprofitable, it said, as economies slow. Demand is expected to reach 497 terawatt hours in 2017, even accounting for weaker consumption as the economy has slowed.

Looking ahead, 15 French coal-fired plants with capacity of 3.9 gigawatts will close from 2012 to 2016, while another 3.8 gigawatts of heating-oil plants will shut in 2016, RTE said.

Four natural gas-fired plants are supposed to start up by 2017, while Electricite de France SA’s new EPR nuclear reactor at Flamanville is due to begin commercial production in 2016.

The shutdowns of the Fessenheim reactors near the German border “need to be anticipated,” with studies on the effects for the power system and French and German demand, RTE said.

Reducing nuclear in the energy mix by 2030 will need a doubling of interconnection capacity in 20 years, costing about 350 million euros ($440 million) a year, it said. The borders with Spain, Italy and the U.K. are the focus, Maillard said.

The biggest challenge for the grid is to get people to accept high-voltage cables and pylons, he said. It has struggled to develop infrastructure needed to carry power from Electricite de France SA’s Flamanville EPR because of local opposition.

Hollande’s decision to close Fessenheim, EDF’s oldest plant, stems from concerns about the safety of the reactors after last year’s nuclear meltdown at Fukushima in Japan. The “challenge” after that will be to supply electricity to areas around the plant in France and Germany, Maillard said.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...grid-says.html

[oggbashan]

Peak UK electricity demand is between 0800 and 2000, when solar power generation is most effective.

The UK still has a long term problem with the distribution network which needs updating to allow for movement of location of generation sources and major users.

Locally, a former oil-powered station is being used as the point at which cables from off-shore wind generators come ashore, for a couple of large solar power installations and for a new incinerator plant which will generate electricity from burning domestic waste. The power lines that used to take the output from the demolished oil-powered station are being used for the new generation systems.

But matching peak demand and peak generation is always difficult, and will be until the National Grid is updated.

[trysail]

Originally Posted by oggbashan

But matching peak demand and peak generation is always difficult, and will be until the National Grid is updated.

Og-

I don't know if you ever have a look at the "Bishop Hill" (Andrew W. Montford) website, but you might find it of interest:

http://www.bishop-hill.net/

Montford is, of course, the author of The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and The Corruption of Science ( a book I heartily recommend ) and has a point of view; nevertheless, I think you will find him both numerate and literate.

[oggbashan]

Originally Posted by trysail

Og-

I don't know if you ever have a look at the "Bishop Hill" (Andrew W. Montford) website, but you might find it of interest:

http://www.bishop-hill.net/

Montford is, of course, the author of The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and The Corruption of Science ( a book I heartily recommend ) and has a point of view; nevertheless, I think you will find him both numerate and literate.

Thank you for that link.

I'm not as concerned about the impact of climate change on electricity generation as our considerable dependence on imported fossil fuels - imported sometimes from politically unstable countries.

I consider that a reasonable mix of generation sources is a sensible policy. However much wind and solar energy is generated, the UK will need fast-start generation stations such as natural gas to match electricity production and demand.

If we could source that gas ourselves, from fracking, that would be better than importing it. But the natural gas terminal at Milford Haven can take ships carrying natural gas from any exporter.

I also think that coal-powered stations will be needed. I would prefer them to be more efficient and less polluting than they used to be. I'm not sure the technology is yet proven to make coal-fired stations politically acceptable. Perhaps it will be in the next decade.

As for Scotland? I think Alex Salmond is guilty of wishful thinking but he does have resources in Scotland for hydro and tidal generation that might get Scotland a long way to full power without fossil fuels. But 100%? Not this century.

[trysail]

Originally Posted by oggbashan

Thank you for that link.

I'm not as concerned about the impact of climate change on electricity generation as our considerable dependence on imported fossil fuels - imported sometimes from politically unstable countries.

I consider that a reasonable mix of generation sources is a sensible policy. However much wind and solar energy is generated, the UK will need fast-start generation stations such as natural gas to match electricity production and demand.

If we could source that gas ourselves, from fracking, that would be better than importing it. But the natural gas terminal at Milford Haven can take ships carrying natural gas from any exporter.

I also think that coal-powered stations will be needed. I would prefer them to be more efficient and less polluting than they used to be. I'm not sure the technology is yet proven to make coal-fired stations politically acceptable. Perhaps it will be in the next decade.

As for Scotland? I think Alex Salmond is guilty of wishful thinking but he does have resources in Scotland for hydro and tidal generation that might get Scotland a long way to full power without fossil fuels. But 100%? Not this century.

I commend your attention to:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeeh...r-the-english/

Alex Salmond’s wind farm delusion
by Andrew W. Montford

[trysail]

Wood insanity be the reason?
By Andrew W. Montford
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/bl...he-reason.html

Insanity is a possibility, but more likely this is just the great law of unintended consequences - so often a feature of well-meaning politicians. Drax, a major UK energy generator is about to convert one of its major power stations to burn wood. Since wood is categorised as a renewable energy source this plan will enable them to escape the EU's strictures against fossil fuels.

Drax Group Plc will spend $1 billion to turn the U.K.’s biggest coal-fired plant into western Europe’s largest clean- energy producer. The U.K. utility plans to convert one of the facility’s six units to burn wood pellets by June, Chief Executive Officer Dorothy Thompson said in an interview. Drax at a later date plans to switch over two more units to the fuel, investments that if completed would mean the facility harvests a forest four times the size of Rhode Island each year.

For UK readers, Rhode Island is about one seventh of the size of Wales. Once again, environmentalism is leading to the wholesale destruction of the environment. This is yet another price that we have to pay for our leaders' green obsessions.

Selby-based Drax plans to spend as much as 700 million pounds ($1.1 billion) through 2017 upgrading its boilers, ordering millions of tons of biomass from around the world and building facilities to store the fuel, including four silos each bigger than London’s Royal Albert Hall, a 135-foot (41-meter) high oval concert venue with an 800-foot circumference.

That it is profitable for a company like Drax to ship tonnes of ultra-low-energy-density fuel around the world demonstrates just how far our political leaders have distorted the market. The good news, however, is that we are able to identify the culprit:

The emphasis changed earlier this year when the government confidentially requested the industry’s view on full conversion.

“We decided the government must be looking at that quite seriously if they were going to ask for people’s opinions on it,” Thompson said. As a result, Drax carried out a series of undisclosed trials to see how a unit would react to burning “exceptionally high” levels of biomass, she said.

When the government on July 25 announced incentives that rewarded full biomass conversion over co-firing, the company’s shares plunged 25 per cent, with investors still unaware of Drax’s trials. The stock recovered some of its value after the executive team outlined the new strategy on a conference call with analysts later that day. Drax closed on Sept. 19 at 504 pence, down 2.8 per cent from July 24.

The encouragement from the UK government means that it is possible to point the finger of blame at Ed Davey. So now you know.

(As an aside, it's interesting to wonder what part scientific advice has played in this decision)



http://bishophill.squarespace.com/bl...he-reason.html

See also: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...od-energy.html

[vetteman]

Obama and his eco freak constituency can't wait for it to happen here.

[trysail]

Three years until the lights go out

Ofgem, the UK's energy regulator, has apparently announced that the UK should expect power outages to begin in the winter of 2015-16


http://bishophill.squarespace.com/bl...ts-go-out.html

[hobbit.]

What purpose would electricity serve in scotland or wales? except to either frighten the natives or electrocute them?

[trysail]

The response by Mr. Davey appearing in the blog below defies all understanding.

Priceless; I don't know whether to laugh or cry.


http://bishophill.squarespace.com/bl...ad-answer.html





Excerpted from:
http://www.publications.parliament.u...21129-0002.htm

[Exquisition]

Haven't we been hit with huge price hikes ever since privatisation?

[trysail]

Originally Posted by Exquisition

Haven't we been hit with huge price hikes ever since privatisation?

Anybody interested in the benefits of a centrally planned economy ?

Satellite image of the Korean peninsula at night
Source: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program

[Exquisition]

Originally Posted by trysail

Anybody interested in the benefits of a centrally planned economy ?

Satellite image of the Korean peninsula at night
Source: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program

Funny

Why link that with my post? Centralisation of an economy is futile.

[trysail]

...The UK’s peak oil production was in 1999 with production continuing to fall rapidly. The UK is now importing almost all of its fossil fuel requirements. It decided to switch to relying upon wind power, but recently found that turbines were lasting only about half as long as the wind industry said they would. The Climate Change Act, effectively de-industrialising the country, was passed in the House of Commons in October 2008 by 463 votes to three, even as snow was falling outside. The winters since that act was passed in 2008 have been particularly bitter, but that is only a taste of what is to come...

-David Archibald

[mercury14]

Originally Posted by trysail

Anybody interested in the benefits of a centrally planned economy ?

Satellite image of the Korean peninsula at night
Source: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program

Do you have one of these for China?

[trysail]

Originally Posted by trysail

Anybody interested in the benefits of a centrally planned economy ?

Satellite image of the Korean peninsula at night

Originally Posted by mercury14

Do you have one of these for China?

The comment implying that there is any comparability between China and North Korea is such an obvious and incredible display of ignorance that it speaks for itself.

It is so perfectly uninformed that it demands preservation as a near-perfect example of economic illiteracy.

[oggbashan]

Response to post #90

but recently found that turbines were lasting only about half as long as the wind industry said they would.

Locally our first offshore wind farm, the first of four visible from my seafront house, has had the turbines replaced twice. Each time there has been a considerable increase in electricity production because the technology is still developing.

From the initial proposals for 30 turbines until now the increase in peak output has quadrupled. The actual usuable output has increased more than that.

The work on that first wind farm has informed the later ones.

[mercury14]

Originally Posted by trysail

The comment implying that there is any comparability between China and North Korea is such an obvious and incredible display of ignorance that it speaks for itself.

It is so perfectly uninformed that it demands preservation as a near-perfect example of economic illiteracy.

You said central planning puts a nation in the dark. Let's see if you're right.

[trysail]

Originally Posted by oggbashan

Response to post #90

but recently found that turbines were lasting only about half as long as the wind industry said they would.

Locally our first offshore wind farm, the first of four visible from my seafront house, has had the turbines replaced twice. Each time there has been a considerable increase in electricity production because the technology is still developing.

From the initial proposals for 30 turbines until now the increase in peak output has quadrupled. The actual usuable output has increased more than that.

The work on that first wind farm has informed the later ones.

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/bl...unch-time.html

[trysail]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ants-shut.html




U.K. Power Regulator Warns Bills Will Rise as Plants Shut
By Alex Morales and Rachel Morison
February 19, 2013

U.K. household energy bills are set to rise, with the share of generating capacity from gas doubling as aging oil and coal-fired stations close, the regulator said.

About 10 percent of capacity will retire through April, forcing the U.K. to shift from coal and oil to gas, Ofgem Chief Executive Officer Alistair Buchanan said. Britain will have to raise the proportion of power it gets from gas to 60 percent over the next five years from 30 percent now, he said.

“Things are going to be very tight in three years’ time,” Buchanan said today on a conference call. “People have been asking me, ‘Well, where’s the new nuclear, where’s the new clean coal, where’s the new carbon capture?’ It’s not there, and it won’t be there this side of 2020,” he said.

Buchanan’s comments lend urgency to government efforts to push energy market changes through Parliament, boost household efficiency measures such as insulation and complete talks with Electricite de France SA on a price for new nuclear plants. The Energy Bill seeks to stimulate 110 billion pounds ($170 billion) of investment that the government estimates is needed to replace aging power stations and upgrade the electricity grid by 2020.

Iberdrola SA Chairman Ignacio Galan said last week the U.K. risks blackouts this decade if it doesn’t hurry through measures to spur a capacity market intended to pay generators to make plants available at times of peak demand. That’s a view backed by Lakis Athanasiou, an independent equity analyst in London.

Shortages
“The government has destroyed the free market for new build capacity and there won’t be any new plants until there is a decision on the capacity mechanism,” he said. “If there’s a cold winter in continental Europe and low nuclear availability, there could be shortages as early as next winter.”

While blackouts and brownouts aren’t likely, the margin of reserve power will drop to below 5 percent in three years from 15 percent now, Buchanan said. That’s happening at a time when world markets for liquefied natural gas face growing demand and slower development of supply than anticipated, he said.

“We’re going to have to go shopping around the world for our gas, and there’s going to be a period when global LNG is going to be quite tight,” Buchanan said. “It’s horrendous serendipity that just at the time we have a squeeze on our power station capacity and turn to gas, the global markets may have a squeeze on their LNG.”

Financial Crisis
Buchanan didn’t blame government for the squeeze, saying the financial crisis had “walloped” the country after it had already decided to close aging coal and oil-fired plants for environmental reasons, and while it was pursuing new or untested technologies such as offshore wind power and new nuclear plants.

“The reforms we are introducing to the electricity market through the Energy Bill are aimed at plugging this gap in order to keep the lights on,” the Department of Energy and Climate Change said today in an e-mailed statement. “Around one-fifth of our aging power stations are due to close over the next decade, so as Ofgem highlights, we cannot afford to be complacent and may face a looming energy gap.”

Brian Potskowski, a power analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, estimates about 5 gigawatts of capacity will shut by April. A similar level closed last year. While that has been expected since European Union emissions rules were enforced in 2008, shutdowns have accelerated as producers used up generating hours they were allocated by burning cheap coal to boost profit.

“While the removal of this capacity will cause the market to tighten, persistent weakness in power consumption along with the continued growth of renewables means that we do not have to fear power shortages this year,” Potskowski said by e-mail.

While renewables, especially wind, are doing “an orderly job,” it’s difficult to get to the 33 gigawatts of capacity the government is targeting by 2020, Buchanan said. “Gas shale is an interesting story, but it’s one for the 2020s and beyond.”




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ants-shut.html

[mercury14]

Originally Posted by trysail

I commend your attention to:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeeh...r-the-english/

Alex Salmond’s wind farm delusion
by Andrew W. Montford

Andrew Montford the accounting major?

[trysail]

Originally Posted by mercury14

Andrew Montford the accounting major?

Montford actually graduated (unlike John Cook with his exaggerated and very dodgy academic claims) from the University of St Andrews with a degree in chemistry. Unlike you, he has an understanding of economics, mathematics, chemistry and accounting.

His wikipedia entry is just a tad more distinguished than yours: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Montford

[trysail]

Government policies are directly responsible for the looming shortage and increasing costs. Shutting down nuclear and coal generating capacity and relying upon unconventional sources of electricity are the proximate causes.




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21501878



Energy watchdog Ofgem chief warns of bill rises

Consumers are being warned they face higher energy bills as the UK becomes more reliant on energy imports.

In a speech, Ofgem chief executive Alistair Buchanan will say that falls in Britain's power production capacity are likely to lead to more energy imports and customers paying more.

The energy watchdog predicts power station closures could mean a 10% fall in capacity by April alone.

Mr Buchanan has said the UK needs more gas supplies to fill the shortfall.

His warning comes as older power stations close and renewable energy is still growing.

Global market
Existing plans to take ageing and polluting power stations off the UK network over the next few years mean the amount of energy the UK can produce is set to fall.

The BBC's John Moylan says that, while we have heard such warnings before, the difference with this one is that the process is already underway. Plants are already closing, and although planning permission for new ones is out there, nothing is actually being built.

While the shortfall in supply can be filled by increasing gas imports, competing for those supplies on the global market is likely to cost more.

Longer term solutions to the UK's energy needs, such as new nuclear power stations or tapping domestic shale gas reserves, have yet to be given the final go-ahead by the government.

Mr Buchanan told the BBC that Britain "would be very tight on power station capacity in three to five years' time".

"We're going to have to go shopping in world markets at a time when they will be very tight [on supplies] themselves."

"There isn't a single person or people to blame. In my view it was a single event - the financial crisis. Before the financial crisis the government had backed a visionary approach to energy on wind, water and nuclear... then came the financial tsunami."

He said that crisis had a major impact on the government's ability to pay for such expensive schemes.

Plugging the gap
Mr Buchanan added that it was very important to resolve "leaky homes" and become more energy efficient in order to avoid the approaching "near crisis".

He is stepping down as Ofgem chief executive later this year.

A spokesperson for the Department of Energy and Climate Change said that "we cannot afford to be complacent".

"The reforms we are making to the electricity market through the Energy Bill and through our gas generation strategy are aimed at plugging this gap in order to keep the lights on," he added.

Analysts said there was little chance of the UK running out of gas.

"We must not fear," said Ashton Berkhauer, the deputy chair of Energy Forecaster, which gives companies advice on their energy bills.

"The UK is very well connected. We have a number of different inter-connectors based all around the country as well as huge import facilities."

However, he added that both consumers and businesses "need to make sure they are not using more than they need to".

The chief executive of Consumer Focus, Mike O'Conner, warned that it would be those who can least afford it who would suffer the most.

"With six million households in fuel poverty, rising to over nine million by 2016, and an increasing proportion of our incomes being spent on essential items like energy, this latest news... is chilling."

Caroline Flint, Labour's shadow energy and climate change secretary, said it was important for the UK to have an energy market that "delivers fair prices and works in the public interest".

She said Labour had plans to create "a tough new energy regulator with the power to force energy companies to pass on savings to consumers".

"We must also prioritise making Britain's homes better insulated and more energy-efficient," she added.

[mercury14]

Originally Posted by trysail

Montford actually graduated (unlike John Cook with his exaggerated and very dodgy academic claims) from the University of St Andrews with a degree in chemistry. Unlike you, he has an understanding of economics, mathematics, chemistry and accounting.

His wikipedia entry is just a tad more distinguished than yours: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Montford

You realize that an undergraduate degree in chemistry gives virtually no training of qualification in climatology or meteorology, right? And it has even less to do with economics.

Why do you give a shit about his Wiki entry or mine? His Wiki entry says he has no education or training in anything regarding climatology and you think that's a good thing?