Sonny Limatina
Ding dong ding
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2006
- Posts
- 21,875
Let's go back to May 10, 2011. The news of the week was that the US had finally killed bin Laden. Obama leaves New York and flies to El Paso, TX, to give a speech about...immigration reform. Huh?
It's not the first time he'd given such a speech. Every position he laid out was familiar to those who followed the issue: provide a path to citizenship, secure the borders, improve the existing immigration system and crack down on employers who exploit illegal workers. It was virtually the same position he'd held as a candidate. Repeating it seemed unnecessary at best.
In fact, it only prompted fresh ridicule from the right that Obama was soft on immigration--at a time when his political capital was relatively high for having presided over the successful Bin Laden raid, which had trickle-down implications for immigration and border laws.
So why give the speech?
Here's why: The Obama Administration figured out, a year ahead of whomever his Republican opponent will be, that the swing vote in the states crucial to the 2012 election will be the Hispanic demographic.
From today's Politico piece on his Puerto Rico trip:
Make a speech in support of immigration reform in the wake of the term-defining act of killing Bin Laden. Get the Republicans on record opposing it. Then take a campaign swing through the very states in which the immigrant Hispanic population is likely to be the deciding margin, before heading to Puerto Rico itself—the first president to do so in 50 years.
Recall that the 2008 election was decided almost two years before the first votes were cast. Obama's team looked at the delegate map and chessed out a way to beat the system, including the invincible Clintons: focus on vulnerable districts with odd numbers of delegates, so that even in losing, they would gain on the frontrunner; and overperform in districts with large numbers of delegates, so that in winning, they would rout.
During the campaign proper, Obama was a shape-shifting Ninja, adopting, debate to debate and appearance to appearance, whichever countenance he'd been weak on previously.
Now fast-forward. While the right wasn't looking, now-President Obama counted delegates again, this time in Spanish, and won the 2012 election. It will take two years and a deceptively bruising campaign season for anyone to notice. But reelection was won on May 10 of this year, with a seemingly incongruous speech on the Texas/Mexico border, regardless of how the economy is performing in 2012.
It's not the first time he'd given such a speech. Every position he laid out was familiar to those who followed the issue: provide a path to citizenship, secure the borders, improve the existing immigration system and crack down on employers who exploit illegal workers. It was virtually the same position he'd held as a candidate. Repeating it seemed unnecessary at best.
In fact, it only prompted fresh ridicule from the right that Obama was soft on immigration--at a time when his political capital was relatively high for having presided over the successful Bin Laden raid, which had trickle-down implications for immigration and border laws.
So why give the speech?
Here's why: The Obama Administration figured out, a year ahead of whomever his Republican opponent will be, that the swing vote in the states crucial to the 2012 election will be the Hispanic demographic.
From today's Politico piece on his Puerto Rico trip:
Make a speech in support of immigration reform in the wake of the term-defining act of killing Bin Laden. Get the Republicans on record opposing it. Then take a campaign swing through the very states in which the immigrant Hispanic population is likely to be the deciding margin, before heading to Puerto Rico itself—the first president to do so in 50 years.
Recall that the 2008 election was decided almost two years before the first votes were cast. Obama's team looked at the delegate map and chessed out a way to beat the system, including the invincible Clintons: focus on vulnerable districts with odd numbers of delegates, so that even in losing, they would gain on the frontrunner; and overperform in districts with large numbers of delegates, so that in winning, they would rout.
During the campaign proper, Obama was a shape-shifting Ninja, adopting, debate to debate and appearance to appearance, whichever countenance he'd been weak on previously.
Now fast-forward. While the right wasn't looking, now-President Obama counted delegates again, this time in Spanish, and won the 2012 election. It will take two years and a deceptively bruising campaign season for anyone to notice. But reelection was won on May 10 of this year, with a seemingly incongruous speech on the Texas/Mexico border, regardless of how the economy is performing in 2012.
We need a word, and "Latino" (which encompasses Brazilians as well as Latin-American Spanish-speakers) is a better choice than "Hispanic" (which sounds too much like long for "Spic," and which preposterously does not encompass Spaniards from Spain). (As for "Chicano," what the fuck is that?!)
