great lover
Man about town.
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- Dec 8, 2007
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Oil might soon cost upwards of $200 a barrel.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/05/13/Oilbriefing/index.html
OPEC states that there were oil reserves of 1.1 trillion barrels in 2006, of which they control over three quarters. They predict that current stocks will last 81 years if consumption remained at 2006 levels -- 76 million barrels per day (mb/d).
But according to Professor Kjell Aleklett of Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas (ASPO International) peak oil is going to happen a lot sooner.
"We have a decline in production at today's oil fields of roughly 4 percent a year. At current production levels [82mb/d] that means we are going to lose 30 million barrels a day over the next ten years," Aleklett told CNN.
Aleklett, a Professor of Physics at Uppsala University, Sweden is concerned about the production problem allied to growing consumption.
He highlights the current situation in China. The Chinese economy is growing at around 10 percent each year and oil production in the country at full capacity. This means that China will have to import much more oil than the current figure of 3.5 mb/d. "This will push the demand for oil to a completely different scale," Aleklett said.
He believes that the worst-case scenario for peak oil is a plateau from 2007 -- 2012 before oil production starts to decline. The best case will be that production will go up to 93 mb/d. But he thinks that this would require the 10 giant oil fields in Iraq to go into production now.
But a report by the influential energy advisor Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) published in January 2008 takes a different view. Oil is not running out they say, predicting supply will top 100 mb/d by 2017.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/05/13/Oilbriefing/index.html
OPEC states that there were oil reserves of 1.1 trillion barrels in 2006, of which they control over three quarters. They predict that current stocks will last 81 years if consumption remained at 2006 levels -- 76 million barrels per day (mb/d).
But according to Professor Kjell Aleklett of Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas (ASPO International) peak oil is going to happen a lot sooner.
"We have a decline in production at today's oil fields of roughly 4 percent a year. At current production levels [82mb/d] that means we are going to lose 30 million barrels a day over the next ten years," Aleklett told CNN.
Aleklett, a Professor of Physics at Uppsala University, Sweden is concerned about the production problem allied to growing consumption.
He highlights the current situation in China. The Chinese economy is growing at around 10 percent each year and oil production in the country at full capacity. This means that China will have to import much more oil than the current figure of 3.5 mb/d. "This will push the demand for oil to a completely different scale," Aleklett said.
He believes that the worst-case scenario for peak oil is a plateau from 2007 -- 2012 before oil production starts to decline. The best case will be that production will go up to 93 mb/d. But he thinks that this would require the 10 giant oil fields in Iraq to go into production now.
But a report by the influential energy advisor Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) published in January 2008 takes a different view. Oil is not running out they say, predicting supply will top 100 mb/d by 2017.
