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Old 07-07-2012, 02:28 PM   #601
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Old 07-07-2012, 03:04 PM   #602
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Some Examples...

Lead in Gasoline

About 60 years ago physicians started noticing abnormally high levels of lead in patients' blood. It didn't take long to find that the lead was coming from automobile exhausts, since gas at the time was doped with tetraethyl lead as an anti-knocking agent. Cars were spewing lead out of their tailpipes.

The suggestion that lead be banned from gasoline was met with howls of outrage. Industry predicted that gas would become too expensive to use. Auto manufacturers said they'd go out of business. Economic ruin and catastrophe would follow.

The ban went through anyhow with little to no effect on industry, and today we don't have to worry about kids being poisoned by the air they breathe, or food being filmed with a layer of lead from contaminated rain.


Smoking and Lung Cancer

About ten years after that, the Surgeon General came out with a report that said what a lot of researches already knew: cigarette smoking was the leading cause of lung cancer and emphysema. This time a ban was out of the question, but even so, the tobacco industry, feeling its profits threatened, fought back furiously with a campaign of misinformation: biased studies, distortions, testimony from paid 'experts', and phony tobacco-financed 'Research Institutes'.

The aim wasn't to refute the science, which they knew they couldn't do, but to mislead and confuse the public as to science's validity and integrity

These are exactly the same techniques they'd use 40 years later to fight the science behind global warming.


Ozone Depletion

In the 1970's scientists observed a shrinking of the earth's protective ozone layer and traced the cause to the presence of man-made chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) in the atmosphere. CFC's were used as refrigerants, solvents, and as propellants in spray cans, and so were routinely discharged into the atmosphere. Calls for action to limit these chemicals met with stiff resistance from industry, who began a campaign of ridicule that the contents of a can of hairspray or deodorant could possibly affect anything as big as the earth's atmosphere. Predictions were made that banning CFC's would mean the end of air conditioning and refrigeration, and once again cripple American industry. Again: doom and ruin.

But the fact was, CFC's were ruthlessly efficient destroyers of ozone and never degraded. They were doing just what the scientists said.

Despite the protests of industry, the EPA banned the use of CFC's in aerosol cans in 1978 and as a general refrigerant in 1985. Not all nations support this ban though, and the developing world especially still manufactures and uses CFC's, making the fate of the ozone layer still uncertain.

Meanwhile, with less protection from a depleted ozone layer, it's no longer safe to go out in the sun without protection against the increased levels of UVB radiation. An estimated 10,000 skin cancers a year have been attributed to the depleted ozone layer.


Acid Rain

Coal emits a bunch of stuff when it besides CO2. Most notable are oxides of the sulfur and nitrogen which, when they mix with atmospheric moisture, form powerful acids like sulfuric and nitric that dissolve in rainwater to give Acid Rain. Acid rain can be strong enough to corrode steel and dissolve limestone, gypsum, and cement. The problem was especially acute in the Northeast, as a result of burning soft, high-sulfur Pennsylvania coal. Die-offs of plants and animals in rivers and streams and increased infrastructure maintenance costs resulted.

Against intense political and business opposition and the usual cried of impending ruin and devastation, the EPA passed laws regulating emissions of sulfur oxides from coal-burning power plants in 1989 through a cap-and-trade system. Other heavy emitters were required to install exhaust-gas scrubbers to remove sulfur oxides. Since the 1990s, SO2 emissions have dropped 40%, and acid rain levels have dropped 65% since 1976.
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Old 07-09-2012, 11:05 AM   #603
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The Government-Climate Complex

by Rud Istvan
http://judithcurry.com/2012/07/08/th...imate-complex/

Quote:
...In 1926 the president of the American Philosophical Society called Wegener’s theory of continental drift “utter damn rot”...


...Dr. Garth Paltridge is correct. True climate science has been ‘taken hostage’ by the government-research complex for political and personal agendas. We need to take it back.



http://judithcurry.com/2012/07/08/th...imate-complex/
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Old 07-09-2012, 05:19 PM   #604
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US scientist: Ocean acidity major threat to reefs

US scientist: Ocean acidity major threat to reefs

Yahoo news July 9, 2012

By KRISTEN GELINEAU | Associated Press

SYDNEY (AP) — Oceans' rising acid levels have emerged as one of the biggest threats to coral reefs, acting as the "osteoporosis of the sea" and threatening everything from food security to tourism to livelihoods, the head of a U.S. scientific agency said Monday.

The speed by which the oceans' acid levels has risen caught scientists off-guard, with the problem now considered to be climate change's "equally evil twin," National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco told The Associated Press.

"We've got sort of the perfect storm of stressors from multiple places really hammering reefs around the world," said Lubchenco, who was in Australia to speak at the International Coral Reef Symposium in the northeast city of Cairns, near the Great Barrier Reef. "It's a very serious situation."

Oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, increasing sea acidity. Scientists are worried about how that increase will affect sea life, particularly reefs, as higher acid levels make it tough for coral skeletons to form. Lubchenco likened ocean acidification to osteoporosis — a bone-thinning disease — because researchers are concerned it will lead to the deterioration of reefs.

Scientists initially assumed that the carbon dioxide absorbed by the water would be sufficiently diluted as the oceans mixed shallow and deeper waters. But most of the carbon dioxide and the subsequent chemical changes are being concentrated in surface waters, Lubchenco said.

"And those surface waters are changing much more rapidly than initial calculations have suggested," she said. "It's yet another reason to be very seriously concerned about the amount of carbon dioxide that is in the atmosphere now and the additional amount we continue to put out."

Higher acidity levels are especially problematic for creatures such as oysters, because acid slows the growth of their shells. Experiments have shown other animals, such as clown fish, also suffer. In a study that mimicked the level of acidity scientists expect by the end of the century, clown fish began swimming toward predators, instead of away from them, because their sense of smell had been dulled.

"We're just beginning to uncover many of the ways in which the changing chemistry of oceans affects lots of behaviors," Lubchenco said. "So salmon not being able to find their natal streams because their sense of smell was impaired, that's a very real possibility."

The potential impact of all of this is huge, Lubchenco said. Coral reefs attract critical tourism dollars and protect fragile coastlines from threats such as tsunamis. Seafood is the primary source of protein for many people around the world. Already, some oyster farmers have blamed higher acidity levels for a decrease in stocks.

Some attempts to address the problem are already under way. Instruments that measure changing acid levels in the water have been installed in some areas to warn oyster growers when to stop the flow of ocean water to their hatcheries.

But that is only a short-term solution, Lubchenco said. The most critical element, she said, is reducing carbon emissions.

"The carbon dioxide that we have put in the atmosphere will continue to be absorbed by oceans for decades," she said. "It is going to be a long time before we can stabilize and turn around the direction of change simply because it's a big atmosphere and it's a big ocean."
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Weave a circle round him thrice,
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Lit Stories: The Cabinet of Dr. Mabeuse...
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~The Love That Is Not Madness Is Not Love~


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Old 07-09-2012, 05:24 PM   #605
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Top marine scientists warn reefs in rapid decline

Top marine scientists warn reefs in rapid decline

Yahoo News, July 9, 2012

More than 2,600 of the world's top marine scientists Monday warned coral reefs around the world were in rapid decline and urged immediate global action on climate change to save what remains.

The consensus statement at the International Coral Reef Symposium, being held in the northeastern Australian city of Cairns, stressed that the livelihoods of millions of people were at risk.

Coral reefs provide food and work for countless coastal inhabitants globally, generate significant revenues through tourism and function as a natural breakwater for waves and storms, they said.

The statement, endorsed by the forum attendees and other marine scientists, called for measures to head off escalating damage caused by rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, overfishing and pollution from the land.

"There is a window of opportunity for the world to act on climate change, but it is closing rapidly," said Terry Hughes, convener of the symposium, held every four years, which attracted some 2,000 scientists from 80 countries.

Jeremy Jackson, senior scientist at the Smithsonian Institution in the United States, said reefs around the world have seen severe declines in coral cover over the last several decades.

In the Caribbean, for example, 75-85 percent of the coral cover has been lost in the last 35 years.

Even the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, the best-protected reef ecosystem on the planet, has witnessed a 50 percent decline in the last 50 years.

Jackson said while climate change was exacerbating the problem, it was also causing increased droughts, agricultural failure and sea level rises at increasingly faster rates, which implied huge problems for society.

"That means what's good for reefs is also critically important for people and we should wake up to that fact," he said.

"The future of coral reefs isn't a marine version of tree-hugging but a central problem for humanity."

Stephen Palumbi, director of Stanford University's Hopkins Marine Station, said addressing local threats, such as poor land development and unsustainable fishing practices, was also critical.

More than 85 percent of reefs in Asia's "Coral Triangle" are directly threatened by human activities such as coastal development, pollution, and overfishing, according to a report launched at the forum earlier Monday.

The Coral Triangle covers Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, The Solomon Islands, and East Timor and contains nearly 30 percent of the world's reefs and more than 3,000 species of fish.

International Society for Reef Studies president Robert Richmond stressed that the consensus statement was not just another effort at documenting the mounting problems.

Instead he said it was also about making the best available science available to leaders worldwide.

"The scientific community has an enormous amount of research showing we have a problem. But right now, we are like doctors diagnosing a patient's disease, but not prescribing any effective cures," he said.

"We have to start more actively engaging the process and supporting public officials with real-world prescriptions for success."
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Weave a circle round him thrice,
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Lit Stories: The Cabinet of Dr. Mabeuse...
Even more... T h e W e b s i t e
~The Love That Is Not Madness Is Not Love~


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Old 07-09-2012, 05:40 PM   #606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trysail View Post

The Government-Climate Complex

by Rud Istvan
http://judithcurry.com/2012/07/08/th...imate-complex/
Let's look at Mr Istvan's credentials as a climate analyst/geophysicist:
From Rud Istvan's LinkedIn entry

Rud Istvan
Former Senior Corporate Exec, now entrepreneur
Miami/Fort Lauderdale Area Nanotechnology
Current
Outside Board Member at NextGen Solar, Inc.
Principal at NanoCarbons LLC
Chairman and CEO at Third Stream Bioscience, Inc.
Past
Principal at NanoCarbons LLC
EVP Business Development and GM, Wireless Patient Monitoring at GMP Companies, Inc.
SVP, Director Corporate Strategy Offices, and GM of Future Businesses at Motorola Inc
see all
Education
Harvard University
Recommendations
1 person has recommended Rud
Connections
141 connections
Public Profile
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/rud-istvan/9/52/b20


Honestly, try, this is getting embarrassing.

And from the previously-posted articles, it looks like marine biologists and oceanographers have also joined the Government-Climate Complex.

In fact, it looks like almost all reputable scientists have joined in this giant conspiracy to grow fat and sassy on government grant money at the expense of the poor, downtrodden business community, whom we all know always puts public interest far above concerns for profits.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:52 PM   #607
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Careful Doc. You're jeopardizing Trysail's chance at winning the Nobel Prize for propaganda. He has made quite the effort. I'm wondering if he's getting paid for it, or if it's the lure of winning the 1 million dollar Nobel Prize that's motivating him.

(Hint to Trysail: I realize it may be difficult for you to comprehend, but not all professionals are motivated by a desire to maximize their paycheck at the expense of their integrity. If they were, there would be no scientists working for universities and nonprofits, they'd all be raking in the bucks working for Corporate America or whoring for the Heritage Foundation where the pay scale is much higher.)
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Old 07-09-2012, 09:53 PM   #608
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The facts just don't seem to want to fit. Not only is there no correlation— there isn't even anything remotely resembling an association.




http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss...6.83/normalise

Quote:
Richard Feynman: "In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience; compare it directly with observation, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment it is wrong."

The most important component of climate science is careful, long-term observations of climate-related phenomena, from space, from land, and in the oceans. If observations do not support code predictions—like more extreme weather, or rapidly rising global temperatures—Feynman has told us what conclusions to draw about the theory.

-William Happer, Ph.D.
Professor of Physics
Princeton University




Take it up with the "Denizens" at Dr. Curry's website:
http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/12/th...f-climate-etc/
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Old 07-10-2012, 05:39 PM   #609
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00249.1
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Old 07-19-2012, 08:56 AM   #610
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When one takes the time to examine the fallacious and desperate claim of "consensus," one cannot help but be struck by the extent of manipulation and intellectual contortions necessary for the construct.

Consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.
–Abba Eban





http://judithcurry.com/2012/07/13/no...ensus-part-ii/

-Judith A. Curry, Ph.D.
Professor & Chair, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ph.D., Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 1982
NASA Advisory Council Earth Science Subcommittee
Fellow, American Meteorological Society
Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science
Fellow, American Geophysical Union



Also,
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/1...cientists-say/



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Old 07-22-2012, 03:47 PM   #611
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Legitimate dissension and doubt as promulgated by Dr. Curry are the very soul of science and should always be honored and encouraged. And I would be the last person to deny that the argument over Anthropogenic Climate Change hasn't become insanely politicized. But I have to say that this paper, purporting to dissect the nature of scientific "consensus," reminds me of nothing so much as Bill Clinton's legal defense of examining just what the word "is" means.

On top of that, she confuses terribly the meaning of "consensus" as used in science, and "consensus" as it's used in politics and opinion.

“Consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually” – Abba Eban

To me, consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects.” – Margaret Thatcher

These quotes, prominent in her article as a dismissal of the idea of 'consensus', refer to political consensus -- how many settlements should the Israelis build on the West Bank? What's the proper role of government in health care? How should taxes be levied? 'Consensus' here is used as a euphemism for compromise and denial of responsibility. It's group opinion.

Consensus in science means something else: agreement on the significance and meaning of facts. There's scientific consensus on the age of the earth, on the value of immunization, on the dangers of smoking. Each of these ideas ran into a stiff wall of opposition when it was first proposed (as did the idea of ACC) and each still has its schools of skeptics and deniers. And each won acceptance not because of some conspiracy or political pressure, but in spite of them, convincing scientists one at a time.

Dr. Curry is right in that there's much unsettled in the field of climate science and that other explanations for the facts of global climate change should certainly be considered, but as I read her paper, it's the politicization of science that she questions, not the science itself. I haven't read the entire piece, but I'd be surprised to see that she ever questions the basic validity of climate change, only the fervor that's grown up around it. In that, she's certainly not alone. Almost all the anti-ACC papers I've seen from qualified dissenters (including the ones Try often cites in this thread) are really decrying the emotionalism that's attached itself to the subject or questions about methodology, rather than direct disagreement with the basic scientific facts.

Things today remind me of the situation just before the great London cholera epidemic of 1850something. At the time, people thought cholera was caused by bad smells and there was nothing much you could do about it. No one wanted to deal with the fact that they were dumping their shit into the Thames and then drinking the water. The doctor who suggested this might not be a good idea was accused of practicing "French science" and ignored. It would be too expensive to provide clean water or a sewer system, and besides, where was the irrefutable proof that shit in drinking water was bad for you?

We can hope that climate scientists today are engaged in some mass-delusional circle jerk and keep on spewing greenhouse gases at an increasing rate. Or we can go with the best scientific opinions and not worry what 'consensus' means.
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Old 07-27-2012, 11:39 AM   #612
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The 2012 Drought and Global Climate Change

Climate scientists have been very circumspect in ascribing local weather conditions to Global Climate Change because (1) natural variability in local weather can hide long-term trends, and (2) the difficulty in teasing apart the various factors that influence local weather.

However, the current drought affecting the US (64% of continental US, loss of corn crop estimated at >30%) and Mediterranean, the flooding in China and Japan, and the disastrous delay of India's monsoons, are pushing scientists to find a relationship between extreme weather and GCC.

The consensus that's emerging is that, while it's still not possible to predict the long-term effect of GCC on local weather, the trends are now clearer, and it's safe to say that weather extremes and deviations are the new normal.



Area in extreme drought increases by size of Texas, report says


CNN, Friday, July 27, 2012 [emphasis added--dr.M.]

Area in extreme drought increases by size of Texas, report says
The portion of the country with some level of drought increased only slightly in the last week, but areas at risk for major crop losses and widespread water shortages jumped significantly, according to a report from the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Areas of the contiguous United States under extreme or exceptional drought conditions increased by an area roughly the size of Texas - from 13.5% of the land to 20.5% - in the past seven days, according to the Drought Monitor report released Thursday.

"It's getting to the point where some of the (agricultural) damage is not reversible" in the extreme-drought areas, said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the center. "The damage is done, and even with rain, you're not going to reverse some of these problems, at least not this growing season."

The areas newly put into the extreme category are spread over many states, including parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas and South Dakota. (See last week's map, for comparison with the one above.)

Meanwhile, the portion of the Lower 48 states under moderate or worse drought conditions rose slightly in the last week – from 63.54% to 63.86% – putting the contiguous United States in the largest drought by area in the report's 12-year history. This is the fourth consecutive week the Lower 48 set a Drought Monitor record in this category.

...



Analysis: Evidence for climate extremes, costs, gets more local

By Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle
OSLO | Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:53pm IST

(Reuters) - Scientists are finding evidence that man-made climate change has raised the risks of individual weather events, such as floods or heatwaves, marking a big step towards pinpointing local costs and ways to adapt to freak conditions.

"We're seeing a great deal of progress in attributing a human fingerprint to the probability of particular events or series of events," said Christopher Field, co-chairman of a U.N. report due in 2014 about the impacts of climate change.

Experts have long blamed a build-up of greenhouse gas emissions for raising worldwide temperatures and causing desertification, floods, droughts, heatwaves, more powerful storms and rising sea levels.

But until recently they have said that naturally very hot, wet, cold, dry or windy weather might explain any single extreme event, like the current drought in the United States or a rare melt of ice in Greenland in July.

But for some extremes, that is now changing.

A study this month, for instance, showed that greenhouse gas emissions had raised the chances of the severe heatwave in Texas in 2011 and unusual heat in Britain in late 2011. Other studies of extremes are under way.

Growing evidence that the dice are loaded towards ever more severe local weather may make it easier for experts to explain global warming to the public, pin down costs and guide investments in everything from roads to flood defenses.

...

Previously, the European heatwave of 2003 that killed perhaps 70,000 people was the only extreme where scientists had discerned a human fingerprint. In 2004, they said that global warming had at least doubled the risks of such unusual heat.

The new statistical reviews are difficult because they have to tease out the impact of greenhouse gases from natural variations, such as periodic El Nino warmings of the Pacific, sun-dimming volcanic dust or shifts in the sun's output.

So far, extreme heat is the easiest to link to global warming after a research initiative led by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the British Meteorological Office.

"Heatwaves are easier to attribute than heavy rainfall, and drought is very difficult given evidence for large droughts in the past," said Gabriele Hegerl of the University of Edinburgh.

Scientists often liken climate change to loading dice to get more sixes, or a baseball player on steroids who hits more home runs. That is now going to the local from the global scale.

Field said climate science would always include doubt since weather is chaotic. It is not as certain as physics, where scientists could this month express 99.999 percent certainty they had detected the Higgs boson elementary particle.

"This new attribution science is showing the power of our understanding, but it also illustrates where the limits are," he said.

A report by Field's U.N. group last year showed that more weather extremes that can be linked to greenhouse warming, such as the number of high temperature extremes and the fact that the rising fraction of rainfall falls in downpours.

But scientists warn against going too far in blaming climate change for extreme events.

Unprecedented floods in Thailand last year, for instance, that caused $45 billion in damage according to a World Bank estimate, were caused by people hemming in rivers and raising water levels rather than by climate change, a study showed.

"We have to be a bit cautious about blaming it all on climate change," Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, said of extremes in 2012.

Taken together, many extremes are a sign of overall change.

"If you look all over the world, we have a great disastrous drought in North America ... you have the same situation in the Mediterranean... If you look at all the extremes together you can say that these are indicators of global warming," said Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengabe, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
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Weave a circle round him thrice,
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Old 07-27-2012, 11:47 AM   #613
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Paul Krugman is a well-known left-leaning economist (& Nobel Prize winner, for whatever that's worth) who writes for the left-leaning New York Times. But this column is especially insightful. My emphasis.


Loading the Climate Dice
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: July 22, 2012

A couple of weeks ago the Northeast was in the grip of a severe heat wave. As I write this, however, it’s a fairly cool day in New Jersey, considering that it’s late July. Weather is like that; it fluctuates.

And this banal observation may be what dooms us to climate catastrophe, in two ways. On one side, the variability of temperatures from day to day and year to year makes it easy to miss, ignore or obscure the longer-term upward trend. On the other, even a fairly modest rise in average temperatures translates into a much higher frequency of extreme events — like the devastating drought now gripping America’s heartland — that do vast damage.

On the first point: Even with the best will in the world, it would be hard for most people to stay focused on the big picture in the face of short-run fluctuations. When the mercury is high and the crops are withering, everyone talks about it, and some make the connection to global warming. But let the days grow a bit cooler and the rains fall, and inevitably people’s attention turns to other matters.

Making things much worse, of course, is the role of players who don’t have the best will in the world. Climate change denial is a major industry, lavishly financed by Exxon, the Koch brothers and others with a financial stake in the continued burning of fossil fuels. And exploiting variability is one of the key tricks of that industry’s trade. Applications range from the Fox News perennial — “It’s cold outside! Al Gore was wrong!” — to the constant claims that we’re experiencing global cooling, not warming, because it’s not as hot right now as it was a few years back.

How should we think about the relationship between climate change and day-to-day experience? Almost a quarter of a century ago James Hansen, the NASA scientist who did more than anyone to put climate change on the agenda, suggested the analogy of loaded dice. Imagine, he and his associates suggested, representing the probabilities of a hot, average or cold summer by historical standards as a die with two faces painted red, two white and two blue. By the early 21st century, they predicted, it would be as if four of the faces were red, one white and one blue. Hot summers would become much more frequent, but there would still be cold summers now and then.

And so it has proved. As documented in a new paper by Dr. Hansen and others, cold summers by historical standards still happen, but rarely, while hot summers have in fact become roughly twice as prevalent. And 9 of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000.

But that’s not all: really extreme high temperatures, the kind of thing that used to happen very rarely in the past, have now become fairly common. Think of it as rolling two sixes, which happens less than 3 percent of the time with fair dice, but more often when the dice are loaded. And this rising incidence of extreme events, reflecting the same variability of weather that can obscure the reality of climate change, means that the costs of climate change aren’t a distant prospect, decades in the future. On the contrary, they’re already here, even though so far global temperatures are only about 1 degree Fahrenheit above their historical norms, a small fraction of their eventual rise if we don’t act.

The great Midwestern drought is a case in point. This drought has already sent corn prices to their highest level ever. If it continues, it could cause a global food crisis, because the U.S. heartland is still the world’s breadbasket. And yes, the drought is linked to climate change: such events have happened before, but they’re much more likely now than they used to be.

Now, maybe this drought will break in time to avoid the worst. But there will be more events like this. Joseph Romm, the influential climate blogger, has coined the term “Dust-Bowlification” for the prospect of extended periods of extreme drought in formerly productive agricultural areas. He has been arguing for some time that this phenomenon, with its disastrous effects on food security, is likely to be the leading edge of damage from climate change, taking place over the next few decades; the drowning of Florida by rising sea levels and all that will come later.

And here it comes.

Will the current drought finally lead to serious climate action? History isn’t encouraging. The deniers will surely keep on denying, especially because conceding at this point that the science they’ve trashed was right all along would be to admit their own culpability for the looming disaster. And the public is all too likely to lose interest again the next time the die comes up white or blue.

But let’s hope that this time is different. For large-scale damage from climate change is no longer a disaster waiting to happen. It’s happening now.
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Old 07-27-2012, 11:58 AM   #614
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Projected Rainfall Patterns for 2030-2039



That’s a look at predicted Palmer Drought Severity Index around the world. Take a look at the United States, where the PDSI ranges as high as -6 to -7 in the Great Plains. For context, the PDSI briefly spiked to -6 in that area during the Dust Bowl, but it rarely exceeded -3 for the rest of the 1930s. In other words, there’s a possibility of persisting drought conditions more severe as the Dust Bowl within the next two decades.

--from What We Know About Climate Change and Drought, Washington Post, 7/24/12
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Old 07-27-2012, 12:17 PM   #615
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Nobel Prize for Propaganda

Despite the nit-picking of deniers, the efforts of the multi-million dollar manufactured-doubt and disinformation industry, the accusations of bandwagoning, mass delusion, lying, fraud, distortion, incompetence, and selfish malfeasance leveled against legitimate climate scientists, man-made climate change is now an established fact, and we are feeling the results.

The speciousness of the deniers' argument that global warming might even be good for humanity (an argument espoused by Richard Feynman, who looks forward to the day when most species are extinct and replaced by organisms we design through genetic engineering) is now obvious as nations face death and disruption caused by global climate change. Look for burgeoning world famines in 2013, and skyrocketing food prices in the US.

Scientists differ on whether it's too late to reverse the major disruptions we've set in train, but there's no doubt that we'd be in much better shape had we acted on this problem 10 or 20 years ago. But thanks to the tireless efforts of the disinformation and doubt industries, we didn't. Their efforts have been marvelously effective in exposing us to the dangers we face today, and for that you have to admire them.

Therefore, to the professional propagandists who denied the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming, to the shills and mercenaries who put profits and personal interest above human welfare, goes the Nobel Prize in Propaganda. You deserve it.
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Old 07-31-2012, 12:56 PM   #616
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Damn those nagging scientific problems
( like, f'rinstance, when results fail to confirm the hypothesis ):






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Old 07-31-2012, 01:47 PM   #617
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Just a couple of small questions there Try,

What does that chart represent, who is it from and where did they get whatever data they used?

If you're going to cut and paste crap, at least cut and paste the explanation to go along with it. Otherwise no one has any idea what you are trying to say. Not that it seems to matter much to you.
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Old 08-01-2012, 09:43 AM   #618
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Just a couple of small questions there Try,

What does that chart represent, who is it from and where did they get whatever data they used?

It is a chart comparing the 1990 IPCC forecasts (red solid and dotted lines) with the actual temperatures for 1990-2009 as recorded and reported by NASA (University of Alabama-Huntsville ["UAH"] satellite-based temperature of the global lower atmosphere [light green line]) and the Hadley Climate Research Unit (UK [ "HadCruT" ] [blue line] ). The wavy black line (clearly showing normal annual seasonal cyclicality) is atmospheric CO2 as recorded at Mauna Loa (Hawaii). The left axis (DeltaT) is temperature change. The right axis is atmospheric CO2 (ppm). The data are normalized.


It is plainly obvious that the 1990 IPCC forecasts were flat-out wrong. It demonstrates that claims that CO2 is the sole forcing in the highly complex climate system are dubious.




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Old 08-01-2012, 10:39 AM   #619
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If that chart had a dozen more temperature lines showing the same thing as those two do then you might have something but i don't think you you can or will find anything like that.

Fitting the data to disprove something is much easier than fitting the data to prove something. It's called cherry picking and most of what you present is just that.
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Old 08-01-2012, 11:40 AM   #620
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If that chart had a dozen more temperature lines showing the same thing as those two do then you might have something but i don't think you you can or will find anything like that.

Fitting the data to disprove something is much easier than fitting the data to prove something. It's called cherry picking and most of what you present is just that.
Before you start throwing monkey poo, start investigating and thinking for yourself. Let's see your work.



The facts just don't seem to want to fit. Not only is there no correlation— there isn't even anything remotely resembling an association.




http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss...6.83/normalise

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Richard Feynman: "In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience; compare it directly with observation, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment it is wrong."

The most important component of climate science is careful, long-term observations of climate-related phenomena, from space, from land, and in the oceans. If observations do not support code predictions—like more extreme weather, or rapidly rising global temperatures—Feynman has told us what conclusions to draw about the theory.

-William Happer, Ph.D.
Professor of Physics
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Old 08-01-2012, 11:42 AM   #621
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Quote:
...You have to laugh at that list. I'm not sure if Tom noticed there has been a bit of a rumpus over the IPCC in the last few years - something to do with some emails I think. The whole point of Climategate was that it showed that the IPCC is not to be trusted - dissenting authors excluded from the report, fabricated claims that dissenting findings were statistically insignficant, that sort of thing.

Perhaps he thinks the CRU scientists were exonerated? I can only assume that if this is indeed the case, since he still trusts the IPCC and wants others to do so too. I can only assume therefore that he is also taking the integrity of the inquiries on trust rather than having actually examined any of the facts - a pity because this is a simple matter of procedure rather than an area of science requiring months of research and study. Even a relatively cursory look at what the inquiries did would demonstrate to a moderately intelligent twelve-year old that no meaningful investigation had taken place. Even as eco-friendly a writer as Roger Harrabin describes the inquiries as "inadequate", which I think is just a diplomatic way of saying "thorough floor-to-ceiling whitewash".

Then again, there were all those other problems with the IPCC report - the claim that Himalayan glaciers would be gone by 2035, for example, a claim that had been touted by environmentalists long before the IPCC report, had been incorporated in the final text in the face of dissenting review comments, and had then been defended to the hilt by the chairman of the IPCC himself when it was exposed as a preposterous and cynical exaggeration.

Or what about the IPCC's decision to restate an important study of climate sensitivity by Forster and Gregory, putting it on a Bayesian basis and then imposing an inappropriate uniform prior that biased the results so as to increase climate sensitivity from 1.6°C to 2.3°C per doubling of CO2?

And Tom C wants us to trust these guys?

But what about the others - the NAS, the Royal Society and so on? The thing that has to be remembered here is that the reports issued by these august bodies are not representative of the fellows. They are put together mostly by politically minded insiders and a handful of climatologists - the same people who have caused all the trouble at the IPCC. It took a rebellion of dissenting fellows at the Royal Society to get its prognostications on climate to even have the appearance of a scientific rather than a political document. And if you look at the society's post-rebellion climate statement it still carries visible signs that its authors are taking things on trust. Here's what they say on climate sensitivity:


Climate models indicate that the overall climate sensitivity (for a hypothetical doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere) is likely to lie in the range 2°C to 4.5°C; this range is mainly due to the difficulties in simulating the overall effect of the response of clouds to climate change mentioned earlier.


Not a word of the observational study by Forster and Gregory, the one that found that climate sensitivity was only 1.6°C, at least until the IPCC rewrote the story. I don't see this as deception - they probably just took the IPCC report on trust and were therefore probably unaware that Forster and Gregory was based on observations rather than climate models and found a lower climate sensitivity.

So the NAS, the Royal Society and all the other academies are simply conduits for the received wisdom coming from the IPCC - whom we know cannot be trusted. There is only the IPCC that assesses the climate literature from beginning to end. That is the dilemma we face: we are being invited to a game of poker by a bunch of known cardsharps...


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Old 08-01-2012, 01:16 PM   #622
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Where is my data? I don't need data. I'm not making any claims one way or the other. I'm just asking questions about your data or the lack there of.

I asked if there was another chart showing more temperature lines that confirmed the ones you showed. Since you didn't respond with that chart, I'm assuming there isn't one. The rest is just more of the same without anything but your word to back it up.

Hearsay and unsubstantiated charges does not an argument make.

Keep cherry picking, you're good at it.
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Old 08-01-2012, 02:22 PM   #623
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Where is my data? I don't need data.


It's hiding from you in plain sight.


Last edited by trysail : 08-01-2012 at 02:24 PM.
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Old 08-01-2012, 02:50 PM   #624
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trysail View Post


It's hiding from you in plain sight.

Out of context doesn't work that well either.

Now I understand the need for cut and paste.
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Old 08-01-2012, 03:17 PM   #625
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Out of context doesn't work that well either.

I'm sure you can figure it out for yourself if you decide to try.

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