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Old 12-02-2017, 09:39 AM   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnODay View Post
To put the above in context, which makes it all the more impressive:
Wisconsin enjoyed increases in private-sector jobs across both months, and set new records for the number of private-sector jobs in the state in September and October.

October brought 9,500 private sector jobs to the state, according to preliminary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics....

Surrounding states didn't fare as well in October. Illinois gained 5,200 private-sector jobs, but Iowa lost 1,100, Michigan lost 500 and Minnesota lost 5,000.
L. Speckhard Pasque, Private-sector jobs in Wisconsin hit record high for second month in a row, October preliminary estimates show, Capital Times (Nov. 24, 2017). This map summarizes that data:





Illinois was the only other of these states to see job growth and, given the states' relative populations, Illinois's 5,200 new jobs pale in comparison with Wisconsin's 9,500 new jobs.

In short, while the economy is improving across the country generally, Wisconsin's approach to creating a good economy, lowering taxes, balancing budgets and making regulation reasonable, is demonstrably superior, thanks to Gov. Walker and the Badger Republicans.
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Originally Posted by phrodeau View Post
So you have to look at the quality of jobs being produced one day, and ignore it the next.
I'm sorry, I'm not following your point.

I could see where looking at quality of jobs would be relevant if both states had increased jobs by a certain number. In this case, however, where Wisconsin gained 9,500 jobs while Minnesota lost 5,000 jobs, I don't see where relative quality of jobs makes much difference. It remains compelling evidence of a growing economy under Wisconsin Republicans and a weakening economy under Minnesota Democrats.

Remember:

Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnODay View Post
In just the past year, Wisconsin under Scott Walker has gained 32,089 total jobs, almost all of which (32,037) were in the private-sector, meaning they contribute to the tax base, not draw from revenues. These have included 5,590 jobs in construction and 3,771 in manufacturing. At least as important is that Wisconsin has experienced a 3.9 percent increase in total quarterly private sector wages! This easily outstrips current inflation, meaning real financial gains by Wisconsin workers.

Source: BLS Data: Wisconsin Adds 9,500 Private-Sector Jobs in October: Number of total nonfarm and private-sector jobs reach all-time high in October, as does total labor force, Wis DWD (Nov. 16, 2017).
No matter how you want to spin it, this is another big win for Gov. Walker and Wisconsin Republicans, concurrent with the Minnesota Meltdown.
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Old 12-02-2017, 11:52 AM   #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnODay View Post
I'm sorry, I'm not following your point.

I could see where looking at quality of jobs would be relevant if both states had increased jobs by a certain number. In this case, however, where Wisconsin gained 9,500 jobs while Minnesota lost 5,000 jobs, I don't see where relative quality of jobs makes much difference. It remains compelling evidence of a growing economy under Wisconsin Republicans and a weakening economy under Minnesota Democrats.

Remember:



No matter how you want to spin it, this is another big win for Gov. Walker and Wisconsin Republicans, concurrent with the Minnesota Meltdown.
Something I read on November 9th. Oh look, it was from you.
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Old 12-03-2017, 08:46 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by phrodeau View Post
Something I read on November 9th. Oh look, it was from you.
Right, I understood that. I still don't think your point has any relevance. It is still the case that Wisconsin under the Republicans is gaining thousands of jobs while Minnesota under the Democrats is losing thousands of jobs and continues to melt down.

Further, as that November 9 post demonstrated:

Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnODay View Post
Wisconsin has consistently ranked extremely high in recent years in the creation of better paying, good benefits, manufacturing jobs. Wis. DWD, BLS Data: Wisconsin Ranks 1st in Midwest and 14th in Nation in Manufacturing Growth Rate Year-over-Year (Jan. 24,2017).
The fact that "Wisconsin Ranks 1st in Midwest" means, in terms of job quality, Republican Wisconsin is doing better than Democrat Minnesota by that criterion as well. Thank you for reminding everyone of this.
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Old 12-12-2017, 07:46 AM   #79
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Another Walker Policy Success!

The Democrats predicted dire consequences when Gov. Walker and the Republicans established work or training requirements for food stamp recipients. In fact, it has been a great benefit to the working poor.
MADISON, Wis. – After two and a half years, Wisconsin’s FoodShare Employment and Training Program (FSET) continues to prove its effectiveness in shepherding adults off public benefits and into productive careers.

FSET was created in the 2015-17 state budget and requires able-bodied adults who don’t have children at home to participate in a jobs training program, work 80 hours a month, or lose their FoodShare benefits after three months. It went into effect in April of 2015.

As of Sept. 2017, 23,093 FSET participants have found gainful employment, according to a November report from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services. This year alone, 10,969 people have participated.

In September, FSET participants worked an average of 34.7 hours a week with an average wage of $12.80. Wages and hours peaked in July with workers averaging 35.2 hours a week and an average wage of $13.11.
...

The number of participants declined over the years, as there are fewer able-bodied childless adults receiving FoodShare benefits. In the first quarter of the program in 2015, 22,501 people were referred to FSET who needed to meet the work requirements. Last quarter, there were only 8,098.
...

The 2017-19 budget expands the program. Now able-bodied adults with children at home who are age 6 or older have work requirements in order to continue receiving FoodShare benefits.
B. Osmulski, FSET Workers Getting $15.90/Hour In Some Parts of Wisconsin, MacIver Institute (Dec. 5, 2017).
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Old 12-12-2017, 10:19 AM   #80
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Has he brought back many manual milking jobs?
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Old 12-12-2017, 11:55 AM   #81
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Has he brought back many manual milking jobs?
Probably not. Even for a small dairy farm, milking machines are much more efficient and are not all that expensive.
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Old 12-13-2017, 07:49 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by phrodeau View Post
Has he brought back many manual milking jobs?
No, those are all in Minnesota.

Wisconsin has consistently ranked extremely high in recent years in the creation of better paying, good benefits, manufacturing jobs. Wis. DWD, BLS Data: Wisconsin Ranks 1st in Midwest and 14th in Nation in Manufacturing Growth Rate Year-over-Year (Jan. 24,2017) ("1st in the Midwest" means this is another example of how Wisconsin Republicans have turned Wisconsin into a booming economy while, since starting out with a superior economy left by their Republican predecessors, Minnesota Democrats -- by their own admission! -- have turned Minnesota into a declining economy).

As I've demonstrated before:

Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnODay View Post
In just the past year, Wisconsin under Scott Walker has gained 32,089 total jobs, almost all of which (32,037) were in the private-sector, meaning they contribute to the tax base, not draw from revenues. These have included 5,590 jobs in construction and 3,771 in manufacturing. At least as important is that Wisconsin has experienced a 3.9 percent increase in total quarterly private sector wages! This easily outstrips current inflation, meaning real financial gains by Wisconsin workers.

Source: BLS Data: Wisconsin Adds 9,500 Private-Sector Jobs in October: Number of total nonfarm and private-sector jobs reach all-time high in October, as does total labor force, Wis DWD (Nov. 16, 2017).

Another big win for Gov. Walker and Wisconsin Republicans!
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Old 01-17-2018, 11:43 PM   #83
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For those who tried to recall Gov. Walker because he would be a "disaster" for Wisconsin, especially those who predicted his tax cutting (and now the Foxconn development) would ruin our budget:

The Associated Press reports: "The nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau on Wednesday said the current two-year budget that ends on June 30, 2019, will end with a $385 million balance" (emphasis added).

The significance of this is explained:
The Legislative Fiscal Bureau had good news for the State of Wisconsin on Wednesday morning when it announced the state is on track to end the biennium with $137.5 million more in the general fund than originally estimated just four months ago.

In September, when the 2017-19 budget was passed, LFB estimated the state would end the 2019 fiscal year with $247.7 million. Now LFB predicts it will be $385.2 million.
B. Osmulski, Wisconsin Budget Surplus Expected To Hit $385.2 Million, MacIver Institute (Jan. 17, 2018) (emphasis added).

This is what good government looks like!
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Old 01-18-2018, 02:16 AM   #84
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Fantastic!

Maybe you should get the word out to your fellow Wisconsonites:

Quote:
Democrats Win Wisconsin State Senate Seat

Republican Gov. Scott Walker calls the special-election victory in a district that Donald Trump carried by 17 percentage points in 2016 ‘a wake up call’

Democrats flip traditionally conservative Wisconsin senate seat, kicking off 2018 election season

Quote:
The 2018 election season kicked off Tuesday with an upset in rural Wisconsin, with Democrats flipping a state Senate seat that had been held by Republicans since the start of the century.

With every precinct counted in the race for Wisconsin's 10th Senate district, Democrat Patty Schachtner was the clear victor over Republican Adam Jarchow, a member of the state assembly. Schachtner, a medical examiner in St. Croix County, won by 9 points - a massive swing in a district that former senator Sheila Harsdorf, a Republican, won in 2016 with 63.2 percent of the vote.

It wasn't enough, even in a district that Barack Obama lost by 6 points in 2012 and Hillary Clinton lost by 17 to Trump.
Democratic Win In Wisconsin Special Election Is Portent Of Doom for the Republican Party

Ready for an anti-Trump wave in November? Look at Wisconsin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnODay View Post
For those who tried to recall Gov. Walker because he would be a "disaster" for Wisconsin, especially those who predicted his tax cutting (and now the Foxconn development) would ruin our budget:

The Associated Press reports: "The nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau on Wednesday said the current two-year budget that ends on June 30, 2019, will end with a $385 million balance" (emphasis added).

The significance of this is explained:
The Legislative Fiscal Bureau had good news for the State of Wisconsin on Wednesday morning when it announced the state is on track to end the biennium with $137.5 million more in the general fund than originally estimated just four months ago.

In September, when the 2017-19 budget was passed, LFB estimated the state would end the 2019 fiscal year with $247.7 million. Now LFB predicts it will be $385.2 million.
B. Osmulski, Wisconsin Budget Surplus Expected To Hit $385.2 Million, MacIver Institute (Jan. 17, 2018) (emphasis added).

This is what good government looks like!
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Old 01-18-2018, 03:22 PM   #85
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lmao

Did you even read your own article?

The increase in surplus comes from, and I quote:

Quote:
The Fiscal Bureau says the higher forecast was largely the result of $76 million more in estimated tax collections, a nearly $98 million drop in spending caused mostly by re-estimates of debt payments and a $38 million fund transfer.
So: in case you can't read: $76 million more in TAX COLLECTIONS. Hmmm. How are those TAX CUTS working out?

I'd like to know more about the $98 million "re-estimates of debt payments." Wonder what that means. Maybe pushing payments to 2019, after the 2018 elections? Sounds like fancy money to me.

A $38 million "fund transfer." Hmmm. Could be anything. A Koch Brothers infusion? Did they steal money from kids lunches? Throw off more people from healthcare?


Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnODay View Post
For those who tried to recall Gov. Walker because he would be a "disaster" for Wisconsin, especially those who predicted his tax cutting (and now the Foxconn development) would ruin our budget:

The Associated Press reports: "The nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau on Wednesday said the current two-year budget that ends on June 30, 2019, will end with a $385 million balance" (emphasis added).

The significance of this is explained:
The Legislative Fiscal Bureau had good news for the State of Wisconsin on Wednesday morning when it announced the state is on track to end the biennium with $137.5 million more in the general fund than originally estimated just four months ago.

In September, when the 2017-19 budget was passed, LFB estimated the state would end the 2019 fiscal year with $247.7 million. Now LFB predicts it will be $385.2 million.
B. Osmulski, Wisconsin Budget Surplus Expected To Hit $385.2 Million, MacIver Institute (Jan. 17, 2018) (emphasis added).

This is what good government looks like!
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Old 01-18-2018, 05:28 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Carnal_Flower View Post
So: in case you can't read: $76 million more in TAX COLLECTIONS. Hmmm. How are those TAX CUTS working out?
I found and posted a Wikipedia page recently (and I'm too lazy to look it up again) showing the total state tax load as a percentage of residents' incomes per state. That's income, sales, and property taxes, and required fees. Illinois had the highest load. Nebraska, Scott Walker's Wisconsin, and Sam Brownback's Kansas, were just behind. Cutting inputs HERE requires raising inputs THERE to keep the show afloat. Imagine that.
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Old 01-18-2018, 07:27 PM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnal_Flower View Post
lmao

Did you even read your own article?

The increase in surplus comes from, and I quote:



So: in case you can't read: $76 million more in TAX COLLECTIONS. Hmmm. How are those TAX CUTS working out?

I'd like to know more about the $98 million "re-estimates of debt payments." Wonder what that means. Maybe pushing payments to 2019, after the 2018 elections? Sounds like fancy money to me.

A $38 million "fund transfer." Hmmm. Could be anything. A Koch Brothers infusion? Did they steal money from kids lunches? Throw off more people from healthcare?
Apparently, you did not go to school in WI because, if you had, you would be better at math than you are.

First, Tax cuts - or increases - at not stated in dollar amounts; they are in the form of a percentage. If workers' taxes are reduced, it is a matter of reducing the percentage paid, rather than a flat amount of dollars.

So, if you have workers whose taxes have been cut and whose wages and salaries have increased, such as by 4% as described above, they might actually be paying more taxes but also keeping more of the money they make. If you also add 32,000 people to the work force, also as described above, you will likely end up taking in moretaxes but in workers having more take-home pay, which they will spend on goods or services, resulting in businesses being more profitable and paying more taxes on those profits.

As for the "fund transfer" which you have disparaged: When you add 32,000 persons to the work force, you remove that same number from the non-working population. This means less money is paid out in Unemployment Compensation or various forms of state assistance.

And, in case you're interested, Medicaid is a federal program, although administered by the various states, so the state would not have any more money if they "Throw off more people from healthcare."

ETA: School lunch programs are also a federal undertaking, so the state would be unable to steal money from it, unless you are referring to mugging children for the money they intended to use to buy lunch.
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Old 01-18-2018, 07:52 PM   #88
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I found and posted a Wikipedia page recently (and I'm too lazy to look it up again) showing the total state tax load as a percentage of residents' incomes per state. That's income, sales, and property taxes, and required fees. Illinois had the highest load. Nebraska, Scott Walker's Wisconsin, and Sam Brownback's Kansas, were just behind. Cutting inputs HERE requires raising inputs THERE to keep the show afloat. Imagine that.
This might be the page to which you refer: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/stati...ersonal-income

WI is slightly higher than the national average. MN and IL are considerably higher than that and KS is quite low. However, this is through 2015, which is not very timely.
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Old 01-18-2018, 07:53 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by Hypoxia View Post
I found and posted a Wikipedia page recently (and I'm too lazy to look it up again) showing the total state tax load as a percentage of residents' incomes per state. That's income, sales, and property taxes, and required fees. Illinois had the highest load. Nebraska, Scott Walker's Wisconsin, and Sam Brownback's Kansas, were just behind. Cutting inputs HERE requires raising inputs THERE to keep the show afloat. Imagine that.
The fact that Wisconsin remains such a high tax state, despite several rounds of tax cuts, simply reflects how overtaxed we were by the current administration's Democrat predecessor, which, despite historically high taxation, left the state with an over $3 billion dollar deficit. Since the Republicans took over, every budget has resulted in a surplus. Why is it so hard for you all to accept this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnal_Flower View Post
lmao

Did you even read your own article?

The increase in surplus comes from, and I quote:

$76 million more in TAX COLLECTIONS. Hmmm. How are those TAX CUTS working out?

I'd like to know more about the $98 million "re-estimates of debt payments." Wonder what that means. Maybe pushing payments to 2019, after the 2018 elections? Sounds like fancy money to me.

A $38 million "fund transfer." Hmmm. Could be anything. A Koch Brothers infusion? Did they steal money from kids lunches? Throw off more people from healthcare?
Indeed, I did read it.

I just apparently understand how fiscal matters work better than you do.

In regard to the increase in tax collections, that is because since Walker implemented a series of pro-business fiscal and regulatory reforms, Wisconsin's economy is booming! Tax rates have gone down. People are getting to keep more of the money they earn. As usually happens, however, when there is significant tax rate reduction government revenues increase due to economic growth.

As for the rest, your objections are spurious on their face. Those other line-item surpluses are both due to increasing returns due to changing interest rates, again due to the improving economy. Remember, Wisconsin's Legislative Fiscal Bureau is, as reported by the AP, a nonpartisan office (staffed, incidentally, with Madison bureaucrats, a rather left-leaning crowd). Meanwhile, the election up north was not a referendum on past policy (neither candidate was an incumbent), but reflected public reaction to each of the candidate's individual characteristics.

No matter how you want to spin it, Wisconsin is booming economically and its government is on the most sound economic footing it has seen this century. Governor Walker and the Republicans deserve the credit for that.
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Old 01-18-2018, 08:30 PM   #90
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Then why did Walker describe it as a "wake up" call? A "wake up call" means: Republicans are in trouble in this state.

When you don't have an incumbent running, it stands to reason that the advantage is going to go to the current ruling party (R) if things are going so swimmingly in the state. It is truly hard to understand why, if Rs have increased wages and increased jobs, a D would be the preferred candidate.

Or, another way of looking at it, if the economy is booming, and people vote only on "individual characteristics," then why does the state of the economy matter at all? One presumes you cite these economic statistics for political reasons--i.e., people vote on the basis of their pocketbook, so why not keep voting R?

Then again, the state of things nationally suggests the same disconnect: the economy is supposedly doing great, and yet both T and the Rs in Congress have terrible poll numbers, and have been losing every single solitary race all over the country besides about 4.

Your answer? "Because neither candidate was an incumbent" seems lame. If everything you say is true, then why would people vote for a D who is presumably going to raise taxes? Why not toe the line for Walker? And why not for Trump? They voted for him supposedly because things were so very bad economically (under Walker). Well, now the jobs have returned and everyone's taking home so much more and it's all so great (in the span of one year), why on earth would that 17 point Trump vote evaporate into a 7 point loss?

The incumbent Paul Ryan is saying privately he may not run, because he has serious fears he's going to lose--like a record number of Rs in the House getting out of politics altogether.


Quote:
Meanwhile, the election up north was not a referendum on past policy (neither candidate was an incumbent), but reflected public reaction to each of the candidate's individual characteristics.

No matter how you want to spin it, Wisconsin is booming economically and its government is on the most sound economic footing it has seen this century. Governor Walker and the Republicans deserve the credit for that.
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Old 01-18-2018, 08:42 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by Boxlicker101 View Post
This might be the page to which you refer: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/stati...ersonal-income

WI is slightly higher than the national average. MN and IL are considerably higher than that and KS is quite low. However, this is through 2015, which is not very timely.
The page I found earlier is here and sorry, I misremembered Kansas' place. Illinois tops the list of effective tax loads, with Nebraska, Wisconsin, New York, Rhode Island, and Connecticut virtually tied just behind. California is toward the bottom of the list. Here's the graph:

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Old 01-19-2018, 06:42 AM   #92
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The page I found earlier is here and sorry, I misremembered Kansas' place. Illinois tops the list of effective tax loads, with Nebraska, Wisconsin, New York, Rhode Island, and Connecticut virtually tied just behind. California is toward the bottom of the list. Here's the graph:

Wow. Thank you for posting this!

As I pointed out above, the fact that Wisconsin remains such a high tax state, despite several rounds of tax cuts, simply reflects how overtaxed we were by the current administration's Democrat predecessor. (Tellingly, despite historically high taxation, those Democrats left the state with an over $3 billion dollar deficit. Since the Republicans took over, every budget has resulted in a surplus.)

It's a good thing Governor Walker appears headed for reelection. As you demonstrate, Hypoxia, he obviously needs to do a lot more to lower the tax burden on us Wisconsinites!
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Old 01-19-2018, 11:38 AM   #93
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I thought people were always bitching about California taxes


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The page I found earlier is here and sorry, I misremembered Kansas' place. Illinois tops the list of effective tax loads, with Nebraska, Wisconsin, New York, Rhode Island, and Connecticut virtually tied just behind. California is toward the bottom of the list. Here's the graph:

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Old 01-19-2018, 03:44 PM   #94
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Then why did Walker describe it as a "wake up" call?
cause you don't win a lot of ballgames predicting a pancake match. This is why, even after big victories, the coach yells at you for all the tackles you missed, the balls you dropped, the plays you missed. 'But coach, we won by 3 touchdowns!'
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Old 01-19-2018, 06:13 PM   #95
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I thought people were always bitching about California taxes
And Trompniks bitch about federal taxes, including the old top corporate rate... that nobody paid. It's easy to point at individual nominal tax *rates* but those don't address tax *effects* on the resident. Notice that California's high sales tax rate takes a rather smaller portion of a resident's income than does Louisiana's similar sales tax rate, likely because the LA tax covers more items than the CA tax, which excludes many foods.

Look at the actual take, not the nominal rate.
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Old 01-20-2018, 08:52 PM   #96
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The incumbent Paul Ryan is saying privately he may not run, because he has serious fears he's going to lose.
What is your source for this?

I live in Ryan's district. There is no buzz along these lines. Ryan is in no danger of losing.
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Old 01-20-2018, 10:41 PM   #97
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It was all over the news about a month ago. EVen on Fox. He denied it.


Paul Ryan Sees His Wild Washington Journey Coming to An End

Congressional Insider: Paul Ryan May Resign As Speaker!

Is Paul Ryan Going to Resign?

Paul Ryan exiting as speaker? It only makes sense.

White House responds to Paul Ryan resignation reports

Quote:
Fox Business Videos•December 14, 2017

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders responds to FBN’s Blake Burman’s question regarding rumors that House Speaker Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) may resign.
Don't bother screaming about Fake News. I'm only reporting what everyone was saying.

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What is your source for this?

I live in Ryan's district. There is no buzz along these lines. Ryan is in no danger of losing.
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Old 01-21-2018, 10:41 AM   #98
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When have you ever heard me scream about fake news?

Meanwhile, you need to look at those articles a bit more closely. You are conflating two issues. He may resign as Speaker this year. He is not talking about not running for Congress this year, although there is speculation that 2018 might be his last run for Congress. For instance, more than one report speaks of him retiring "after 2018."

I have not read all those articles in complete detail. If any of them actually say what you originally said, that "Paul Ryan is saying privately he may not run, because he has serious fears he's going to lose," I would label that speculation on the part of the author.

I'm not a Republican, not by a long shot, but I have several friends who are active in the Party. As I said, there is no buzz about Paul Ryan not running this year. If I am wrong, and he doesn't run, I'll come back here and admit my mistake (I may need a reminder). If he runs, Carnal Flower, will you do the same?
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Old 01-21-2018, 01:41 PM   #99
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He might even run for the Senate. There is a Dem. incumbent up for reelection this year, and he could probably win the nomination. He has the name recognition to challenge her, but maybe not successfully.

ETA: He's not quite 48 years old, which is young to retire, and running for the Senate would be in keeping with what he has been quoted as saying. https://www.yahoo.com/news/paul-ryan...170207034.html
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Old 01-21-2018, 02:25 PM   #100
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Sure. Did I confuse "stepping down as Speaker" with "Not Running?" My mistake.

That is what I heard, on various lefty podcasts. He's done in the House. I have heard he is in trouble with the Iron Stache, but perhaps that's wishful thinking.

From Politico:

Quote:
Despite several landmark legislative wins this year, and a better-than-expected relationship with President Donald Trump, Ryan has made it known to some of his closest confidants that this will be his final term as speaker.

He consults a small crew of family, friends and staff for career advice, and is always cautious not to telegraph his political maneuvers. But the expectation of his impending departure has escaped the hushed confines of Ryan’s inner circle and permeated the upper-most echelons of the GOP. In recent interviews with three dozen people who know the speaker—fellow lawmakers, congressional and administration aides, conservative intellectuals and Republican lobbyists—not a single person believed Ryan will stay in Congress past 2018.
Confused how he would run in 2018 only to "not stay in Congress past 2018." I'm sure that's why I made the prediction I did.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PrincepsCyberius View Post
When have you ever heard me scream about fake news?

Meanwhile, you need to look at those articles a bit more closely. You are conflating two issues. He may resign as Speaker this year. He is not talking about not running for Congress this year, although there is speculation that 2018 might be his last run for Congress. For instance, more than one report speaks of him retiring "after 2018."

I have not read all those articles in complete detail. If any of them actually say what you originally said, that "Paul Ryan is saying privately he may not run, because he has serious fears he's going to lose," I would label that speculation on the part of the author.

I'm not a Republican, not by a long shot, but I have several friends who are active in the Party. As I said, there is no buzz about Paul Ryan not running this year. If I am wrong, and he doesn't run, I'll come back here and admit my mistake (I may need a reminder). If he runs, Carnal Flower, will you do the same?
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