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A Rising Tide....

DawnODay

DawnODay

Literotica Guru
Joined
Dec 19, 2015
Posts
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On Friday our country cheered yet another stellar jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And unlike the sluggish expansion of the Obama years, the lion’s share of this labor market strength benefits middle-income and previously ignored workers. For example, non-managerial wages accelerated at a 12-month rate of 2.7 percent, the highest in a decade. The jobless rate for non-college graduates fell to the lowest level since 2001. Even for those who did not complete high school, good news abounds, as the jobless rate for that working-class, underdog population has now been below 6 percent for the each of the past five months.

Quite clearly, President Trump is delivering on his promise to end the “American carnage” and revive depleted manufacturing in our land, as 334,000 manufacturing jobs have been created since his election. How? First the historic tax reform spurred hiring by companies, especially small businesses that are growing more confident. Further, those entrepreneurs welcome a more sensible and restrained regulatory framework as the president shrinks the burdensome footprint of federal bureaucrats.

These reforms represent a particularly powerful tailwind for Hispanics, statistically by far the most entrepreneurial demographic in America. Speaking of Hispanics, the labor market news for them has been stellar. In U.S. history, there are only eight months where Hispanics report a jobless rate below 5 percent, and an incredible seven of those eight months have been in the last year alone under Trump’s growth agenda. The news is similarly strong for blacks, where the gap between black and white unemployment shrank to the smallest disparity on record. If President Trump is a racist, as his media critics constantly (and unfairly) allege, then he is remarkably bad at it!​

S. Cortes, Trump Lifts the Economic Underdogs, RealClearPolitics (Jun. 03, 2018).
 
someoneyouknow said:
....
P.S. If you look at the numbers, the greatest job gains were in the service sector. i.e. low-wage jobs.
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That's because the article focuses on expansion of employment for "non-college graduates" and "those who did not complete high school." Of course these would be entry-level positions at this time... or don't you think such people deserve jobs?
 
There is a new hope and a new optimism that wasn’t here before. To call it a sudden change from the sluggish Obama-era economy would be an understatement. For a decade, it was like America’s economy was going through a 25 mph zone. Now that the high taxes and uncompetitive regulations are gone, we’re on the open highway again.​

K. Brady, Six Months After Tax Reform, Something Big Is Happening: The economy is back in the fast lane—but Democrats want to undo it all, WSJ (Jun. 21, 2018).
 
When Republicans passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, congressional Democrats denounced the legislation as a reckless attempt to help wealthy corporations at the expense of everyone else. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., famously dismissed the law’s benefits to most taxpayers as “crumbs.”

Six months later, many of the groups Pelosi and other Democrats warned would be worse off as a result of the tax reform legislation — including minorities, women, and small businesses — are not only thriving, they are experiencing some of the most notable economic growth in the country's history....

As difficult as it may be for Pelosi and other advocates of higher taxes and more government control to admit, the successes of the Republican tax reform legislation clearly illustrate that when people are empowered to keep more of their own money, everyone in society benefits.​

J. Haskins, Six months in, tax cuts are already providing historic gains for minorities, women, and small businesses, Washington Examiner (Jul. 3, 2018).
 
The unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma fell to 5.1 percent in July, the Labor Department reported Friday, the lowest since the government began collecting data on such workers in 1992....

The data echoed other positive economic news recently, including a report last week showing the economy grew by 4.1 percent in the second quarter....

All this has translated into better economic opportunities for workers without a college degree, who account for a majority of the work force. It is a contingent that was championed by Mr. Trump during his presidential campaign, and one that both parties want to appeal to in the midterm elections in November.​

N.D. Schwartz & B. Casselman, Workers Hardest Hit by Recession Are Joining in Recovery, New York Times (Aug. 3, 2018).
 
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Keep your eye on Ohio tonight, Dawnie

New poll shows tight race in final days of Ohio special election

The special election race in Ohio's 12th Congressional District between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor appears to be going right down to the wire.

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Balderson receiving 44% support and O'Connor pulling 43% with 11% of respondents saying they are undecided. That's a shift from a little over a month ago, when Monmouth found Balderson leading O'Connor by 10 points.

The suburban Columbus district has been held by Republicans, including current Ohio Gov. John Kasich, for more than three decades. In 2016, President Trump carried the district by 11 points.
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This shouldn't be happening. Even if Balderson manages to squeak through, this is appalling for the R Party.
 
Once again the rich get richer and dawn gets fucking destroyed.

The Trump tax cuts were pitched as a boon to US workers, with the administration arguing their benefits would trickle-down into rising wages.

While the tax cuts have meant some Americans are keeping more of their paychecks, no discernible gains in wages have materialized thus far.

Real average hourly earnings (adjusted for inflation) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were totally unchanged in June from one year earlier.

In fact, when adjusting for inflation, wages have actually fallen this year.

Plus companies, instead of spending money on giving employees raises, have spent their billions in tax cut savings to buy back stocks and enrich CEOs.

The harsh reality is that racist dawn gets fucking destroyed because she hates poor people and loves rich white Nazis.
 
A rising tide doesn't lift 1 percent of the boats a mile higher than any of the other boats.
 
i have a rising tide every time i flush my toilet. america needs to do the same thing.
 
In a rising tide, those boats with short anchor lines can sink.
 
phrodeau said:
In a rising tide, those boats with short anchor lines can sink.
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Except, the whole point of the article I posted above is that even those with the least education are benefiting from the economic boom of the past 18 months.

Meanwhile:

“Last quarter, the United States economy grew by 4.1 percent,” President Trump reminded the nation in his weekly address Saturday. “We’ve created 3.7 million new jobs since the election. Unemployment recently fell to its lowest rate in almost 50 years. Unemployment for Americans with disabilities has reached the lowest level ever recorded. In the month of June alone, 600,000 workers entered or re-entered the workforce. Pretty good numbers.”

The New York-based nonprofit Conference Board also has good news. The organization reports that its monthly Employment Trends Index for the nation is on the upswing....

The index now stands at 109.89, up from 108.72 in June. The change represents a 5.4 percent gain in the index compared to a year ago.

“The growth in the Employment Trends Index remains strong, supported by positive contributions from all of its components,” said Gad Levanon, chief economist for North America for the organization. “We expect economic activity to remain strong in the coming months, and the rapid expansion of employment should continue despite the very tight labor market.”​

J. Harper, Trump bump: Economy, employment strong and expanding, says Conference Board report, Washington Times (Aug 7, 2018).

It must suck to be a Democrat and need to root against American prosperity.
 
No, Democrats in the US do not root against prosperity. Let us not forget the state of the economy under your last Republican president, George W. Bush. Yes, he existed, even as Republicans try to pretend now that he didn't. The current economic recovery and expansion far predates Donald Trump. That is good for everybody.

What is less clear is the long term effect of adding $1.3 trillion to the national debt. It is hard to imagine mainline, fiscal conservative Republicans getting on board with that, but they have. These are the very same Republicans who shut down the government a couple of times to prevent Obama from increasing the national debt at all, citing the gloom and doom of a debt crisis. I know, the answer is the view that we will "grow out" the debt, which is a nice theoretical argument but without basis in history. That history indicates that the approximate time period for tax cuts to "trickle down" is about 20 years.

The trade "policy" of Trump (one extreme thing today, flip flop the next day after the effects are discussed, retrenchment, then repeat) is likely to increase the cost of American debt, as the rest of the world makes new trade deals with each other, sans the US.

There will be a massive health care debacle within the next year that will far outstrip any minor benefit that average workers may enjoy from lower withholding taxes. In the determination to trash Obamacare, which is not a great outcome, the Republicans simply do not have an alternative other than to go back to the pre-Obamacare state that was a disaster. Have high blood pressure? Sorry, that's a pre-exiting condition, so you're on your own. That's one bottom line of many. Premiums will skyrocket because Trump will suck out the economic balancing of a larger, covered population. As he says, "this is more complicated that I thought." By 2020, even if he is not in jail, Trump is going to face a very angry nation. You may get $50 more in your paycheck, but be paying out $500 in premiums for not much coverage.

So, sure, Trump gets some credit for an expanding economy under his watch. But let's keep some things in perspective.
 
This is the Politics Board, not the Economics Board.

WHat does any of this mean for the political landscape?

I just don't get why--if everything is going so great--Republicans are in such big trouble everywhere, including your precious Walker, and why the Repugs are NOT running on the great tax cuts or even on the "great" economy? Because both of those have proven to be big losers. Right now they're reduced to running on an Anti-Pelosi and "Democrats will let in MS-13" to the country. Dusting off tried and tried scare tactics and trotting out Pelosi now that Hillary's no longer around.


If everyone is doing so great and wonderful, why aren't Republicans surging?


DawnODay said:
Except, the whole point of the article I posted above is that even those with the least education are benefiting from the economic boom of the past 18 months.

Meanwhile:

“Last quarter, the United States economy grew by 4.1 percent,” President Trump reminded the nation in his weekly address Saturday. “We’ve created 3.7 million new jobs since the election. Unemployment recently fell to its lowest rate in almost 50 years. Unemployment for Americans with disabilities has reached the lowest level ever recorded. In the month of June alone, 600,000 workers entered or re-entered the workforce. Pretty good numbers.”

The New York-based nonprofit Conference Board also has good news. The organization reports that its monthly Employment Trends Index for the nation is on the upswing....

The index now stands at 109.89, up from 108.72 in June. The change represents a 5.4 percent gain in the index compared to a year ago.

“The growth in the Employment Trends Index remains strong, supported by positive contributions from all of its components,” said Gad Levanon, chief economist for North America for the organization. “We expect economic activity to remain strong in the coming months, and the rapid expansion of employment should continue despite the very tight labor market.”​

J. Harper, Trump bump: Economy, employment strong and expanding, says Conference Board report, Washington Times (Aug 7, 2018).

It must suck to be a Democrat and need to root against American prosperity.
Click to expand...
 
DawnODay said:
Except, the whole point of the article I posted above is that even those with the least education are benefiting from the economic boom of the past 18 months.
Click to expand...

Actually, that's not true. As I've proven economic inequality, especially those with the least education (aka Trump voters) has gotten worse under Trump. You ignore this fact repeatedly because it owns you too fucking hard.

Workers’ real wages have been entirely flat over the last year.

You're getting fucking owned.
 
Domnccoast said:
Education or indoctrination, comrade?
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He's easily triggered, isn't he?

It's fun on one level, because he is the one who introduced such vitriol into several of my threads, but, to be honest, I do pity him. From the little clues you can pick up about his life, he's a frustrated mediocrity in a go-nowhere job. He's obviously also lonely and desperate for attention, hence the huge type face. I suspect his self-perceived polemical victories here at Lit are simply a desperate attempt at self-esteem. It always makes me feel a little guilty when I crush him rhetorically. Besides, as you observed, he rarely adds anything new or valid to these discussions. So, out of mercy, I generally just ignore him.

Meanwhile:

U.S. businesses added 219,000 jobs in July, a private survey found, a robust total that suggests employers are still able to find the workers they need despite the low unemployment rate.

Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that hiring was led by health care providers, hotels and restaurants, and manufacturers. July's figure was up from 181,000 in June and is enough to lower the already-low jobless rate of 4 percent over time.

Tax cuts and greater government spending are accelerating the economy's expansion. Growth reached an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the April-June quarter, the fastest in four years....

The unemployment rate is projected to slip to 3.9 percent, near an 18-year low.​

C. Rugaber, US companies add a robust 219,000 jobs in July, Orlando Sentinel (Aug. 4, 2018).
 
BotanyBoy said:
it's not our governments place to oppress peoples civil rights and their pursuit of happiness in the name of equity. :)
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Wow what a massively racist thing to say. It's not a shock coming from a huge racist who not only hates black/brown people (and supports Nazis) but actively hates poor people.

It's not a surprise that you're fine when you're pro-Nazi Orange hero Trump transfers millions of dollars to his white wealthy cronies (or his simpleton son).

So it's ok when the government intervenes to make rich white people richer but bad when they do it to help poor minorities? Your racism is showing again bot.

Dude you got fucking WRECKED. Your poor asshole.

you-got-owned.jpg
 
dan_c00000 said:
Wow what a massively racist thing to say.
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Not at all.

I think people of any skin color should be allowed to have the same civil rights and pursue their happiness too.

dan_c00000 said:
So it's ok when the government intervenes to make rich white people richer
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Letting rich white people keep more of their money isn't intervening, it's the exact opposite.
 
Republicans are in trouble everyone, but they're in denial about it. Trump is a pig, Scott Walker is a pig and Illinois's own Rauner is a pig and he has made our taxes at the very bottom of the entire country - That's what Republicans are contributing to this country. Good job, guys!

And you people forget that it was Obama who gave millions of people jobs and got us out of a recession, NOT Trump. Get your head right.
 
AnAmericanDarling said:
And you people forget that it was Obama who gave millions of people jobs and got us out of a recession, NOT Trump. Get your head right.
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Obama? You mean the only modern president who, despite serving two full terms, never produced a year of >3% GDP growth, and then tried to pass off his failings as the "new normal." J. Pethokoukis, Team Obama: Sorry, America, the ‘new normal’ may be here to stay, AEI (Jun. 12, 2014) ("the 2013 Obama budget declared, 'In the 21st Century, real GDP growth in the United States is likely to be permanently slower than it was in earlier eras . . . .'"); see also L. Woodhill, Obama's Unemployment 'New Normal' Foretells A 'Lost Decade', Forbes (Jan. 14, 2014); compare with L. Solomon, Donald Trump has shattered the myth that low growth is the 'new normal', Financial Post (Jan. 12, 2018) ("'The new normal' became the received wisdom of the left and numerous others to explain the failure of the Western economies to bounce back after the Great Recession of 2007-8. The Reagan recovery following the early 1980s recession saw U.S. GDP leap by 7.5 per cent in 1984, enroute to average growth of 4.8 per cent over six years. The Obama years never once managed GDP growth of three per cent, eking out instead a post-recession GDP average of just 1.5 per cent per year. Obama not only presided over the worst recovery since the Great Depression, he is the only president since the Second World War to log an uninterrupted string of low growth.").
 
BotanyBoy said:
Letting rich white people keep more of their money and then taking that money from poor people and giving it to rich white people is exactly what I, a racist, support.
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I fixed your post. You got owned and triggered.

The plan includes weakening and then eliminating the federal estate tax, a levy paid only by the wealthiest households in the country—it only kicks in on estates worth over $5.5 million for individuals and $11 million for couples.

It also eliminates the alternative minimum tax, which exclusively benefits households with incomes over $200,000. And it drops corporate tax rates to 20%, the overwhelming benefit of which goes to the very wealthy and—contrary to what the president might say—will not create jobs, as a study by my Institute for Policy Studies colleague Sarah Anderson found earlier this year.

The tax plan includes eliminating tax deductions that benefit many middle-class Americans as well. On the chopping block are the state and local tax deduction and the student loan interest deduction, among others.

Dawn moved the goalposts again.
 
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AnAmericanDarling said:
And you people forget that it was Obama who gave millions of people jobs and got us out of a recession, NOT Trump. Get your head right.
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When the markets began to rise after November 8, 2016, it was largely due to the business sector’s relief at both Obama’s upcoming retirement and the prospect of his being replaced by, to the surprise of most, Trump rather than Hillary Clinton.

This was a surprise to most economic pundits not just because few thought Trump would win but also because most thought Wall Street would share their conviction that the former real-estate mogul was an economic fraud rather than the financial mastermind that he played on reality television.

But while that initial surge was more a matter of faith than anything else, those who put their money on Trump were vindicated.

The chief reason for the optimism that Trump engendered wasn’t so much his advocacy for lower taxes — a promise that was ultimately vindicated by Congress’s passage of a tax-reform bill in December 2017 — as it was his dedication to regulatory reform. As even the Times conceded in a January 1, 2018, article, the enormous burst of business confidence that began in 2017 and carried over into the current year was primarily the result of Trump’s rollback of Obama’s overregulation of business during his eight years in office.

Even when businesses had reason to feel good about the post-2008 recovery, optimism was always limited by the knowledge that Obama’s bureaucracy was dedicated to imposing new regulations throughout the economy. That was especially true for the transportation and energy sectors, where liberal ideology about forcing change to a “green” economy usually overrode every other consideration, especially those concerning growth and jobs.

While not the return to the laissez-faire policies of the 19th century that Democrats claim, Trump’s orders to roll back much of Obama’s big-government overreach have been a tonic for confidence and growth. Businesses can now count on the government to largely stay out of their way at least until 2021, and the result has helped produce the kind of optimism that fuels growth.

Trump’s credit for the good numbers is accentuated by the fact that Obama and the Democrats bitterly opposed the measures that are most responsible for the upturn. The idea that a boom promoted by deregulation and tax cuts (measures Obama saw as economic poison) should really be credited to Trump’s predecessor is not so much partisan hyperbole as utterly illogical.​

J.S. Tobin, It’s Trump’s Boom, Not Obama’s, National Review (Aug. 14, 2018) (emphasis added); see also J. Hoft, Top 10 Reasons Why Today’s Robust Economy Belongs to President Trump and Not to Obama, Gateway Pundit (Aug. 13, 2018).
 
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