2015 High & Tight Keeper League - Fantasy Baseball
- Thread starter serwolfe
- Start date
GimpyIntellect
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2012
- Posts
- 4,325
Anyone here play daily fantasy?
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2001
- Posts
- 66,685
This will be my first year., though, to be honest, I don't see myself sticking with it for very long. I spend a bit of time everyday on this keeper league, and now to have to draft a new team everyday for DFS...might prove to be too much of a time-sink.
ETA: cash game, not GPP.
GimpyIntellect
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2012
- Posts
- 4,325
I played a lot of daily fantasy back in 2013, baseball, basketball, and football. And you're right, it's very time consuming. The thing I find most amazing about it is, the fact that it's legal. Online sports gambling, and online poker are considered illegal, and to be honest, I think there is more luck involved in daily fantasy.
Do you know what site you will be using? I used to play a Draftkings.
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2001
- Posts
- 66,685
I'm trying FanDuel this year.
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2001
- Posts
- 66,685
Trade?
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2001
- Posts
- 66,685
In reviewing the draft, I took note of Spence's strategy to stockpile closers. It's smart, given how the League is structured, but it also reveals a major flaw in that closers - by virtue of this strategy - are now the most important players in the League given their ability to lock up three categories (SV, ERA, WHIP).
There is no other position class that can make the same claim, which would make the CLs on even the worst teams (those with likely the fewest chances for Saves) as valuable as Trout and McCutchen. It also now makes Kimbrel more valuable than Kershaw.
Plus, with only 30 CLs in MLB, the remaining 13 fantasy teams (minus Spence's team) are vying for about 77% of the CL population....which averages out to about two CLs per fantasy team.....which pretty much guarantees Spence three categories going into every week of the season given that he can start 4+ CLs. Spins' team, with its multiple Cy Young winners, could, at best win only Ws and Ks in a head-to-head matchup. On the offensive side, only a team with Trout, McCutchens AND a Miggy-esque bat would compare favourably.
We do have a weekly pitching limit to address this, but, here, too, you only need four CLs pitching two innings per week (2 games games a week and assuming 1-inning outings) in the P, P, RP and RP spots to get to 8.0/15.0 innings that our League requires. Throw in 2 SP starts and you're over the minimum innings limit and your pitching stats for the week are valid.
One way to redress this is to increase the minimum innings pitched to something north of 25 (average innings pitched per game in MLB is ~6), so this would require at least four P/SPs, thereby depressing the value of CLs. Another way would be to eliminate the P roster positions altogether so that you could only play two closers at any given time.
Food for thought. In any event, congrats to Spence for hacking the game.
There is no other position class that can make the same claim, which would make the CLs on even the worst teams (those with likely the fewest chances for Saves) as valuable as Trout and McCutchen. It also now makes Kimbrel more valuable than Kershaw.
Plus, with only 30 CLs in MLB, the remaining 13 fantasy teams (minus Spence's team) are vying for about 77% of the CL population....which averages out to about two CLs per fantasy team.....which pretty much guarantees Spence three categories going into every week of the season given that he can start 4+ CLs. Spins' team, with its multiple Cy Young winners, could, at best win only Ws and Ks in a head-to-head matchup. On the offensive side, only a team with Trout, McCutchens AND a Miggy-esque bat would compare favourably.
We do have a weekly pitching limit to address this, but, here, too, you only need four CLs pitching two innings per week (2 games games a week and assuming 1-inning outings) in the P, P, RP and RP spots to get to 8.0/15.0 innings that our League requires. Throw in 2 SP starts and you're over the minimum innings limit and your pitching stats for the week are valid.
One way to redress this is to increase the minimum innings pitched to something north of 25 (average innings pitched per game in MLB is ~6), so this would require at least four P/SPs, thereby depressing the value of CLs. Another way would be to eliminate the P roster positions altogether so that you could only play two closers at any given time.
Food for thought. In any event, congrats to Spence for hacking the game.
Last edited:
Spins
around an Axis
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2005
- Posts
- 26,075
Spence has been trying the RP route for a couple of years. This draft he was able to grab quite a few more than normal. Maybe because the top closers were all kept this year? Thus the rest of us didn't grab the remainders?
I don't know that he has hacked the game. Granted, each week he will have a chance to win the saves category, but 5 of his 6 Keepers were hitters. Two are top 20 players, the next three are easily in the top 100. When you also consider the top SPs are taken, the top hitters are kept, then rounds 7-12, are going to be a crap shoot. The SPs you are going to get aren't going to be that much better than you can get after Round 12, the hitters, well, we all have our favorites/sleepers/former members of our teams.
Drafting at the end of the 7th he chose the best RP available. In the 8th he chose a 2B. The 9th a 3B/OF. The 10th four more RPs were off the board, so if he wants a 3rd RP he has to grab one now, and Jansen is there? No brainer. 11 and 12 I don't see anyone really "better" for his team. He has 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and an two OF spots covered. Again the SPs available aren't that much better than what he going to get in the later rounds. Grab the RPs and see what happens.
I know Spence likes RPs, he has said as much, and no doubt his strategy was to maximize his picks, but with his team, the way the draft turned out, and some odd picks in front of him (I know I fucked up one round that will probably haunt me all season) I think he had a brilliant draft.
It is also a scary draft kind of. Kimbral, the lone Keeper in the group, has pitched more innings than just about anyone and his motion and speed is going to cause his arm to fail sooner rather than later. Jansen is still young, on a high expecting team, and could easily fall apart. Do you trust David Robinson? I don't. Papelbon? Will the Phillies ever be in a save situation? F-Rod? Injury waiting to happen as well. Gregorson? Sure the Astros will play in some close games, but they are still a bad team in a tough division. Anyone want to bet he'll be the closer at the end of the season?
Odorizzi, Peralta, Hutchinson, and Guasman are all highly touted starters and could easily keep his ERA and WHIP totals down by themselves.
It is a crap shoot. Who knows!?!
That isn't to say I would be opposed to creating a higher minimum innings pitched next year. I mean we brought in the whole QS instead of wins to help push starters as being more important than the elusive Wins category (and, obviously, it helps my team tremendously).
At any rate, I don't think "hack" is the right term. Just a strategy that ended up working well with how the draft went. I imagine several of the picks you had I-Man right before Spence he'd have glady taken if you hadn't have.
TL;DR
I need a 1st baseman.
I don't know that he has hacked the game. Granted, each week he will have a chance to win the saves category, but 5 of his 6 Keepers were hitters. Two are top 20 players, the next three are easily in the top 100. When you also consider the top SPs are taken, the top hitters are kept, then rounds 7-12, are going to be a crap shoot. The SPs you are going to get aren't going to be that much better than you can get after Round 12, the hitters, well, we all have our favorites/sleepers/former members of our teams.
Drafting at the end of the 7th he chose the best RP available. In the 8th he chose a 2B. The 9th a 3B/OF. The 10th four more RPs were off the board, so if he wants a 3rd RP he has to grab one now, and Jansen is there? No brainer. 11 and 12 I don't see anyone really "better" for his team. He has 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and an two OF spots covered. Again the SPs available aren't that much better than what he going to get in the later rounds. Grab the RPs and see what happens.
I know Spence likes RPs, he has said as much, and no doubt his strategy was to maximize his picks, but with his team, the way the draft turned out, and some odd picks in front of him (I know I fucked up one round that will probably haunt me all season) I think he had a brilliant draft.
It is also a scary draft kind of. Kimbral, the lone Keeper in the group, has pitched more innings than just about anyone and his motion and speed is going to cause his arm to fail sooner rather than later. Jansen is still young, on a high expecting team, and could easily fall apart. Do you trust David Robinson? I don't. Papelbon? Will the Phillies ever be in a save situation? F-Rod? Injury waiting to happen as well. Gregorson? Sure the Astros will play in some close games, but they are still a bad team in a tough division. Anyone want to bet he'll be the closer at the end of the season?
Odorizzi, Peralta, Hutchinson, and Guasman are all highly touted starters and could easily keep his ERA and WHIP totals down by themselves.
It is a crap shoot. Who knows!?!
That isn't to say I would be opposed to creating a higher minimum innings pitched next year. I mean we brought in the whole QS instead of wins to help push starters as being more important than the elusive Wins category (and, obviously, it helps my team tremendously).
At any rate, I don't think "hack" is the right term. Just a strategy that ended up working well with how the draft went. I imagine several of the picks you had I-Man right before Spence he'd have glady taken if you hadn't have.
TL;DR
I need a 1st baseman.
serwolfe
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2005
- Posts
- 2,765
It was a great draft by Spence. I'm all for looking at the inning structure as we continue the year and we can put a vote up at some point.
I'm pretty happy with my team but I've been looking at how to combat the closer strategy.
I tried the strategy twice a little while back. It can work but its dependent on health and performance.
Good luck to everyone this year!
I'm pretty happy with my team but I've been looking at how to combat the closer strategy.
I tried the strategy twice a little while back. It can work but its dependent on health and performance.
Good luck to everyone this year!
XXIII
Damn you and such
- Joined
- May 28, 2005
- Posts
- 4,724
What are you looking for?
Spence99
semi-retired
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2004
- Posts
- 42,532
I think you're misinterpreting my strategy quite a bit by suggesting I draft closers in an effort to lock up the categories of ERA and WHIP.
Over the past few years as my knowledge base has grown I've come to the conclusion that ERA and WHIP are essentially fluke stats. You can have a lineup of all star pitchers and a couple of bad starts can ruin both of those stats. Some weeks you win those categories, some weeks you don't. I don't spend any of my time thinking about either or those two categories, because I find them too unpredictable. Trying to excel in those categories is like trying to herd cats.
I draft closers for a simple reason: they're really hard to get if you don't take them in the draft and they can help you win the saves category week after week after week. In a league tightly bunched like ours (we're all good, committed managers always looking for an edge) having a stat like that can turn a 5-5 week into a 6-4 week.
I'm a little confused by Wolfe's comment that he is looking at ways to "combat the closer strategy." I'm not sure what this means. If the other players want to "combat" what I'm doing then they should put a greater emphasis on drafting closers for their teams.
A couple of years ago I made a fundamental decision with my drafting. If it was a choice between a blah every day player, a starting pitcher easily replaceable by a dozen free agents still out there after the draft or a closer that could get me 35 saves and help me dominate that category - I was going to take the closer, even if it meant having three or four extra on my roster (another lesson I learned: closers get hurt, a lot. You need a bunch to make it through the year).
It's almost important to note how I manage my team after the draft. I generally try and have two starting pitchers in my lineup each day. It doesn't always work that way, but that is my usual goal.
I think it's inaccurate to say I'm sitting on four closers to dominate three pitching categories. How I manage my team each week proves that's not the case.
serwolfe
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2005
- Posts
- 2,765
Sorry for the confusion. I meant as a manager I've been looking at ways to win pitching against the loaded closer strategy.
My ideal has been three closers (for a while now) with a fourth being a bonus.
Now if only my pitching staff remembered how to pitch.
My ideal has been three closers (for a while now) with a fourth being a bonus.
Now if only my pitching staff remembered how to pitch.
Radiohead
You look so tired-unhappy
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2005
- Posts
- 9,779
Not another baby in time for football season!
In other news, it seems I have decided to collect any pitcher on the DL, and in my spare time, a few position players. I don't think this is a league winning plan.
Spence99
semi-retired
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2004
- Posts
- 42,532
Sorry dude, I mis-read what you were saying. I thought you were saying you were trying to find a way to combat the strategy in terms of a league-wide basis. When, in fact, you were saying you trying to find a way to beat that strategy in terms of your own team.
XXIII
Damn you and such
- Joined
- May 28, 2005
- Posts
- 4,724
I figured Pablo would suck in the AL. He isn't a 20+ HR guy to begin with. So he would need to have a good B.Ave/ OB%. Less fastballs in the AL to feast on. Its like the reverse Nick Markakis. He goes to the NL and his B.Ave and OB% both go up to highs he hasn't seen in years. Of course his power is no where to be found.
Just my luck. I get an OF back and one goes on the shelf for 2 months.
Just my luck. I get an OF back and one goes on the shelf for 2 months.
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2001
- Posts
- 66,685
No kidding. Short of a two-week period about a month ago, CarGo has been a drag on my team. Finally decided to cut him when I saw that Valbuena has 100 points of OBP over him and with similar power numbers over the past 30 days and similar OBP and a lot more power YTD. Say what you will about Valbuena, but the dude can take a walk and hit the ball a mile. Kryptonite in an AVG league, but TIffany silver in an OBP one.
Similar threads
