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https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02...r-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/
"A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.
Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.
Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”
Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent."
The GOP's foot is tightly in the snare.
The strategy of waiting for Trump to blow himself up failed and now it's too late to stop the train.
Nothing short of a grassy knoll or Arafat cocktail will stop his roll.
Trump vs Hil? I vote for trump cuz if there's gonna be a disaster in the White House, I might as well at least be entertained.
I always wanted to see a good train wreck.
Hitler's an interesting person if you do the research about him and put aside his monstrous conduct against Jews. His obsession with Jews was a psychotic obsession he shared with Russians and Poles.
Trump has all of Hitler's gifts, is what I mean. Hitler literally lifted Germany from the dead and made it a colossus in about 10 years. He never had more than 1/3rd of the Germans on his side.
Harry Reid just endorsed Clinton.
(yawn)
I'm starting to imagine Donald's SOTU addresses. Comedy gold there, folks. Comedy gold.
Would you trust this guy gambling with your money in Vegas?
Not me.
Guaranteed to be entertaining.
"Was this a great year or what, folks. Really, are you tired of winning yet? I didn't think so. How about those wetbacks now, they can't even cross the river, am I right? How fantastic am I as a President, can you believe it?"
...
To smiles, laughter, and applause.
To only you and your moronic brethren.
From a distance I can understand why anti establishment figures might get some traction with the electorate who are pissed off with the corporate machine but it is a sad reflection on a big chunk of that electorate if they can't see through a billionaire bigot like Trump or worse still that they endorse his bigotry and fail to realise which side he and his wealth is on because it certainly won't be that of ordinary people.
From a distance I can understand why anti establishment figures might get some traction with the electorate who are pissed off with the corporate machine but it is a sad reflection on a big chunk of that electorate if they can't see through a billionaire bigot like Trump or worse still that they endorse his bigotry and fail to realise which side he and his wealth is on because it certainly won't be that of ordinary people.
For his fans, the bigotry is a feature, not a bug.
You prove this quote daily.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
- Winston Churchill
The idea that the country is in a helluva mess is mostly media hype. That aside most people simply don't have the time or energy to dedicate to any sort of real research on most political issues.
It ain't hype.
It's hella hype. In most measurable ways America and the world are better off now than at any particular point in history.