mercury14
Pragmatic Metaphysician
- Joined
- Jul 8, 2009
- Posts
- 22,158
That's right. The Democrat Party is the last bastion of Capitalism remaining in the United States.
All hail Obama...
Your logic is impeccable.
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That's right. The Democrat Party is the last bastion of Capitalism remaining in the United States.
All hail Obama...
When held accountable for my own bullshit I frantically try to change the subject. Constantly. That way I can try to escape responsibility for my actions.
And this is why people outside of your political niche don't respect you. One of the reasons anyway. Remember ol' Firespin? He was a dick but he tended to back his points and take responsibility for what he said. You should try to be more like him.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewqtr.pdfWhile the corrupt media coordinates with the White House to attack Romney using the work of a high-profile Occupy Wall Street supporter, not only is unemployment increasing, but three years into Barack Obama's term and for only the fifth time in 33 years, wages fell.
NBC, CBS, ABC, The Washington Post, Politico, The New York Times, NPR, CNN... None of them want to talk about the beating the middle class and the unemployed and under-employed are taking in Obama's failed economy.
All the corrupt media wants to discuss is what Obama wants to discuss: War on Women, immigration, same-sex marriage, lies about Romney outsourcing, and now Romney's wealth...again.
Anything to distract and divide -- anything to keep the voters from comprehending how this president has failed and failed them.
"We're starting to feel the infection now."
-- Michael Feroli, a J.P. Morgan economist, talking to The Wall Street Journal about the first monthly decline in Institute for Supply Management’s measure of U.S. manufacturing output since July 2009, including the sharpest drop in new orders since the plunge that followed Sept. 11, 2001.
The perversity of a continually crummy economy is that sometimes the best news for investors is bad news.
That’s the case with the surprisingly steep drop in manufacturing output in June. The measure slipped into negative territory for the first time since the American economy technically escaped recession three years ago.
It would seem logical that this would cause more anxiety in already roiled investment markets, but not so.
The news was so bad that it caused new hope that the Federal Reserve would engage in a third round of “quantitative easing,” which is the polite way to say that the U.S. central bank would conjure hundreds of billions of dollars into being and then buy up the investment holdings of private banks in a bid to get those banks to make loans with their profits. The Fed then sits on the investments until such time as markets are deemed stable enough to withstand their sale.
There is much debate over the efficacy of this practice, favored by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, but investors love it whether it works or not. A predictable jolt for the economy is something that can be profited from in the short term, whatever happens in the long run. Good or bad, any predictable event is an opportunity for profit.
The current slowdown is blamed on a cyclical contraction in global markets. Europe is deathly ill and locked in a debt spiral and China is coming down hard off of a stimulus-driven high that allowed the fast-growing nation to miss most of the global downturn.
The problems in those places weaken demand for U.S. exports and cause investors to pull back. Then as the U.S. slows, hopes fade in the other regions that America will again be able to provide the economic lift to push the rest of the planet forward.
It’s those things, to be sure, but it’s also that the moneymen haven’t a clue about what direction America is going to take this fall. The neck-and-neck U.S. election between two candidates diametrically opposed on how to revive the faltering economy has businessmen and businesswomen flummoxed. While there is big concern in the business world about Obama’s policies, there is also the worry about how high the stakes are in November.
Many Americans are using the July 4 holiday as an opportunity to get away for the week, and there’s no better time to hide from dour headlines blanketing the financial press. Unemployment has hit a new record high in Europe, and while some progress was made in last week’s euro-zone summit, the continent’s leaders still lack a credible and cohesive plan to stop the death spiral of economic contraction and ever higher debt loads.
But even as fears of recession plague Asia and Europe, America had been fortunate enough to show consistent, albeit slow, job and GDP growth. But new manufacturing data released yesterday has many economists and pundits worried that the European crisis has finally washed up on American shores. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that manufacturing activity contracted in June, with its measure of new orders showing a steep decline into contraction as well.
Manufacturing had been one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise weak recovery, and such a steep drop in activity in the sector is a bad omen for the broader economy. Steven Blitz of ITG Investment Research believes as much, telling the Wall Street Journal:
“Assuming the pace of decelerating activity continues, and we make that assumption, it is only a matter of time before the service sector mirrors the real goods slowdown and overall employment gains move from sluggish to worse. The markets can continue cheering each new policy initiative adding liquidity to the capital markets, especially in Europe, but today’s ISM data proves out the bigger issue — insufficient demand for credit rather than an insufficient supply.”
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/07/05/how-to-defeat-and-replace-obam/printCBO estimates that the health insurance that Obamacare mandates that employers must buy for each of their workers, or that every individual otherwise must buy, will cost on average about $15,000 per year for a family of four, just to start, growing robustly every year after that. Obamacare tries to make that palatable by adopting a new entitlement program providing federal welfare for the purchase of such insurance for families with incomes ranging over $100,000 per year in a few years, as the eligibility cutoff rises with health care inflation.
But those unrestrained health welfare handouts are paid for by taxpayers as well. So the Obamacare mandate tax becomes the entire $15,000 per family cost of the required insurance, including the welfare handouts to help pay it. That is close to $1.5 trillion per year, not the $1.76 trillion CBO now estimates for the next 10 years, which does not count what families and employers are required to pay for the mandated insurance. That $1.5 trillion per year and growing adds up to more than $15 trillion over 10 years! That is the full Obamacare mandate tax.
The employer mandate is a particularly egregious job killer, adding roughly $6,000 to $15,000 per worker per year to start to employment costs for jobs not now covered by health insurance. Even for jobs with current health insurance coverage, the cost of employment would still rise, because the new mandated Obamacare health insurance is likely to be more expensive than the employer’s current health coverage. Employers already seem to be reducing hiring in anticipation of these increased costs when the employer mandate goes into effect in a year and a half. To the extent the employer offsets these added costs by reducing what the worker would otherwise be paid, that means the workers suffer declining incomes.
That would all be on top of the tax increases now scheduled for next year under current law from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, which Obama refuses to renew for the nation’s small businesses, job creators, and investors. Along with the Obamacare tax increases also going into effect next year, that means the top two income tax rates would rise by nearly 20%, the capital gains tax rate would rise by nearly 60%, the tax on dividends would nearly triple, the Medicare payroll tax would rise by 62% for these disfavored taxpayers, and the death tax would rise from the grave with a 55% top rate.
That is all on top of the corporate income tax rate, which is already the highest in the industrialized world under Obama at nearly 40% counting state corporate income taxes on average. As noted here before, even Communist China sports a 25% corporate rate, while the social welfare states of the European Union average even less. Formerly socialist Canada now features a 15% federal rate, with Germany nearly that low. This leaves American businesses uncompetitive in the global economy. But under Obama there is no relief in sight.
Instead Obama has been barnstorming the country for over a year calling for still more tax increases. His Buffett rule would impose on America the fourth highest capital gains tax rate in the industrialized world, along with the highest corporate rate. And he regularly proposes still more tax increases on business, industry, savers, investors, and job creators. That is who he is talking about when he uses the crass term “the rich.”
This tidal wave of tax increases is the perfect formula to drive America into another severe recession next year, before we have even recovered from the last one. That means a return to double digit unemployment, and deficits soaring to over $2 trillion, with wages continuing to decline.
Sorry merc, but it looks like my now going on three-year old forecast is still valid...
Depression-like pattern with a few occasional, but brief, bright spots.
Your forecast has been wrong for three years and counting.
I know. We're doing "fine."
Best economy in, what 400 years? Since the end of Mercantilism?
You're 3+ years and counting into your failed predictions of depression, hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, stock market crash...
How many years are you giving yourself on these predictions, wuss?
And you're too much of a pussy to put a date on any of your predictions in order to evade responsibility for what you say.
Merc is a broken record stuck on bullshit.
I took out all the formatting to make it readable.Obama put dates and numbers on his recovery and yet you attack me in order to not have to defend him...
Oh well, Obama has a defense of his own; it's kinda, what's the word of the day?
WUSSY?
Sideshow Barry Barker 2012 Says: "It's NOT the economy, Stupid!" It's the Birthers! The Tea Party! SARAH PALIN!
Bush!
BAD LUCK!!
RACISM!!!
ATMs, KIOSKs & CORPORATE JETS!!!
TSUNAMIS, TORNADOS, & the ARAB SPRING!!!
EARTHQUAKES & HURRICANES!!!!!
EUROPE’s €PIIGS!!!!!!!!
OBSTRUCTION!!!
Americans have grown “Soft!”
MY LIMP STAFF
Greece is the word!
Roman Noodles!
Iran and the Jews!
You're all LAZY!
Come on WORK WITH ME HERE!
I killed a lot of people people!
http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/files/2011/04/obama-wide-grin80.jpg
”’Shovel-ready’ was not as shovel-ready as we expected.” (Laughter)
... telephone operators...,
... the Internet...
Bush...
That wasn't me that gave drone technology to Iran!
Those Inscrutable Chinese!
Cheapskate CONGRESS!
I'm a VICTIM!
OH HALLELUJAH!
Happy Day!
JOY!
The private sector added 176,000 jobs in June from May, topping the increase of 105,000 expected, according to the latest employment report from payrolls processor ADP.