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When will the DOW (DJIA) reach 5999?

vetteman said:
Hahaha, for the last four years it was all Bush's fault, you didn't care about anything else. Did you ever answer my question about how to price a futures contract using Mark To Liquidation, oops, I mean Mark To Market?:D
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I explained repeatedly why mark to market or mark to maturity won't work. The underlying mortgages that the derivatives are based are increasingly defaulting, meaning that they are worth less and less every day.

It was the realization that these complex derivatives weren't worth what the banks valued them at which has caused the meltdown of the financial sector.

You can "hahahaha" all you want, it just makes you look like the idiot.
 
JohnnySavage said:
By what measure could you possibly opine that the market was over valued? Even with the DOW at 14,000 there were no metrics saying the market as a whole was over priced. Even using Obama's amateurish metric (P/E ratio), the markets were fairly priced.
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I say it because the debt that companies held wasn't being accurately valued. Hell, most of wall street didn't even understand the basis of the derivatives that they were trading. That's why there was such a rapid loss of value.
 
political-pictures-hindenburg-blimp-us-economy.jpg
 
zipman said:
I say it because the debt that companies held wasn't being accurately valued. Hell, most of wall street didn't even understand the basis of the derivatives that they were trading. That's why there was such a rapid loss of value.
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I can't state it as a fact, but with only 3 banks and GE in the DOW, I doubt your derivative argument is valid.
 
vetteman said:
So you agree that Mark to Market is a poor device for pricing assets under the present economic conditions?
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I was referring to your answer to do away with mark to market. I worded it poorly.

If you get rid of mark to market, what value do place on those CDOs? What banks paid for them? We already know that they aren't worth that much. The growing default factor shows that.

Asssets are priced for what you can liquidate them for.
 
Karen Kraft said:
Currently:

6644.14 -231.70 (-3.37%) Mar 5 2:03pm ET

Here are some numbers showing recent trends this year:

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close
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Hey Karen, I'm investing in "no traded" REITS, the kind that are sold by
Bernie "50 billion" Madoff...............:)
 
zipman said:
Or that corporate earnings have been terrible.
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Anyone notice the media stopped paying attention to the oil companies? They still have large profits (as raw figures), and their stock price has fallen too.
 
off2bed said:
Anyone notice the media stopped paying attention to the oil companies? They still have large profits (as raw figures), and their stock price has fallen too.
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Have you forgotten that "oil" is a bad word in the Obama administration....:)
 
vetteman said:
I think it's time for an audit of the Federal Reserve. Now they're saying they are a private organization and can't be made to give up their records. I think that bullshit as the Federal Reserve Act requires a yearly audit, that has never happened to my knowledge.
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Fuck yeah! Not to mention auditing Fort Knox. The last time that happened was around 1980.

:eek:
 
JohnnySavage said:
I can't state it as a fact, but with only 3 banks and GE in the DOW, I doubt your derivative argument is valid.
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The market is complex. Derivatives are one driving factor in finance. Citigroup's market capitalization went from 277 billion to 5 billion. Their stock price dropped from $50 a share to $1. BOA has also sustained tremendous losses. Their stock price went from over $50 a share to a little over $3. That has a huge impact.

The housing bust and recession are what is driving the rest of it. For example, the housing bubble bursting cut Home Depot's stock price in half. The recession is causing losses in most of the other companies.
 
zipman said:
I explained repeatedly why mark to market or mark to maturity won't work. The underlying mortgages that the derivatives are based are increasingly defaulting, meaning that they are worth less and less every day.

It was the realization that these complex derivatives weren't worth what the banks valued them at which has caused the meltdown of the financial sector.

You can "hahahaha" all you want, it just makes you look like the idiot.
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You are correct. What is underlying the low prices is uncertainty about what the value will be in the future.

How about we use mark to return.

Here is my idea. Assuming a CDO/SIV is supposed to return 5% on a $1 million vehicle. If the vehicle returns the full 5% then it is valued at $1 million. Assuming some defaults and foreclosures reduce the return to 4.75% Then the vehicle is valued at $950,000 still the return is effectively 5%. Say 6 months later and the return has a return of 4.5% then the value of the CDO/SIV is $900,000 etc. Assume the value is calculated monthly then the bank can hold the vehicle or sell them at a discount that they deem reasonable.

Private equity could offer a discounted price to buy then. The holder could accept the offer or refuse. No matter the bank has some reasonable cash amount on its books.

The holder of the vehicles should know exactly what return they are receiving from the servicer.

If the holder needs the money as a balance number on the books they hold it. Should they need the cash they could sell them to the market at a discount. (Shrug)

If I can think of something like this, even if I am totally fucked up, why can't the Fed seem to think outside the box and come up with an answer other then "It is too hard"
 
The market took a shit in October 2008. When The Shrub was still President, completely because of his corporate buddy INSTANT GIVEAWAY!

BOGNONBR_Max_630_378.png
 
zipman said:
The market is complex. Derivatives are one driving factor in finance. Citigroup's market capitalization went from 277 billion to 5 billion. Their stock price dropped from $50 a share to $1. BOA has also sustained tremendous losses. Their stock price went from over $50 a share to a little over $3. That has a huge impact.

The housing bust and recession are what is driving the rest of it. For example, the housing bubble bursting cut Home Depot's stock price in half. The recession is causing losses in most of the other companies.
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Again ZIP you are right. The problem is a lack transparency. No one knows that the bons hold, What the value is or how much money they have received from the FED. WTF, no one knows and the fed won't tell inverters or anyone else.

There has been a lot of talk and not a single solid plan as to what the Gov, Treasury, and/or the Fed's plan is and how they are going to implement it.

The answer is in the yeild from Treasuries. As I heard in CNBC a very few weeks ago investers don't want a return on their money, they just want their money returned.

Until there is a solid plan in place the market will be in the shitter.

The unknown breeds fear, fear breeds panic and panic breeds short sellers. Short sellers breed bear runs. Where is the SEC when you need an up tick rule?

Why in the fuck is no one paying one ounce of attention? Other then pumping $billions into something they won't tell us about.

I am not a big conspiracy theorist but, what the fuck? Do they not have a clue are they just stupid?

So you who are much more knowledgeable about this subject jump on my idea. Others just piss off.
 
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Chick and Jane for the New Age Liberals

zipman said:
I explained repeatedly why mark to market or mark to maturity won't work. The underlying mortgages that the derivatives are based are increasingly defaulting, meaning that they are worth less and less every day.

It was the realization that these complex derivatives weren't worth what the banks valued them at which has caused the meltdown of the financial sector.

You can "hahahaha" all you want, it just makes you look like the idiot.
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From rich man to Democrat
http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?t=613119


It was fucking DEMOCRAT corruption; none of us "WINGNUTS" voted for the guy who thinks a PE ratio is "profits to earnings..."

See Zip spin!

Spin Zip, spin!

Funny, funny Zip!

Lol Zip, lol.
 
zipman said:
I was referring to your answer to do away with mark to market. I worded it poorly.

If you get rid of mark to market, what value do place on those CDOs? What banks paid for them? We already know that they aren't worth that much. The growing default factor shows that.

Asssets are priced for what you can liquidate them for.
Click to expand...

I hope the hell fire sales in your neighborhood bring down the price of your home...




:mad: :mad: :mad:
 
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