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May Between a Rock and A Disaster!

JackLuis

JackLuis

Literotica Guru
Joined
Sep 21, 2008
Posts
21,855
Spain bars May’s way to Brussels Brexit deal over Gibralta[/URL]r

Spain was standing between Theresa May and a Brexit deal as it threatened to derail an EU summit on Sunday if it does not get new assurances on having a say in the future of Gibraltar.

As negotiations among Spanish, British and EU officials wore into Saturday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said he was ready to thwart his British counterpart May’s hopes of seeing EU leaders sign off on promises of close ties with London after Britain leaves the bloc in March if he did not get his way.
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Berlin had earlier said there could be no more technical negotiations at the summit, and that Chancellor Angela Merkel could skip it if all the texts are not ready in advance.

The biggest obstacle to the Brexit accord overall is the vehement opposition in the British parliament. Without its approval, Britain could leave the bloc on March 29 without an agreement to mitigate economic and legal disruption.
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Loss of the Rock would stifle the money laundry! EEEK!:eek:
 
The Spanish Government would also damage the economy of Southern Spain close to the Rock. Many thousands of Spanish workers are employed in Gibraltar with incomes they could not match in that part of Spain.

Gibraltar (2017)
Unemployment rate: 1.0 %
Average income: $37,920.14 USD

Spain (2018)
Unemployment rate: 15.2 %
Average income: $28,156.82 USD ‎(2017)

Andalucia
Unemployment Rate: 25.41% for Andalucia which borders Gibraltar
Income? No recent statistics but Andalucia is one of the lowest paid regions in Spain (and much of Europe).
 
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Spain has two properties very similar to Gibraltar, Ceuta and Melilla.

Both are on the African continent, within Morocco. That country has been campaigning for their return to Morocco for many years. They are hang-overs from the colonial era.

Strangely, Spain does not recognise any similarity at all.
 
The documents they are being asked to sign off are all pretty vague and meaningless. They are full of promises like "we will work towards" and "examine the implications of" None of it actually sets the tone of Britains future relationship with the EU. The deal that is to be placed before parliament will do that, but it looks like that will be rejected.

Theresa May has managed to unite the nation, No one likes her deal. Dominic Raab, the man who supposedly negotiated the deal (and firmly in the leave camp) says the deal on offer would be worse than staying in the EU. You have to ask why this is a surprise? Did anyone seriously believe it would be better? That would be like resigning from your gym membership then expecting
to have free access to all the facilities.
 
RubenR said:
Apparently, they managed to work something out and everything is ready for the big meeting.

What I heard of, is that it had something to do with borders between Gibraltar and Spain; free travelling from one area to the other. Something similar (but no doubt very different from) the borders in Ireland?
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Gibraltar is a free port with low income and other taxes, and a financial bolthole for many Spaniards. Some of its residents are (and have been for generations) successful smugglers much to the annoyance of the Spanish authorities. In the 1930s and 40s one such smuggler was awarded medals by both sides in the Spanish Civil War, an Iron Cross by Hitler, and a medal by the British.

The Gibraltarians voted almost unanimously to stay in the EU despite also wanting to remain British. Why? Because they see the EU as a defence against bullying by Spain.
 
The Brexit exit deal has been signed after a written assurance from the UK to Spain about Gibraltar.

Why did Spain raise the issue? The Spanish government is facing an election in Andalucia soon and is unpopular. Blaming the British is a way of diverting attention from Andalucia's real problems of unemployment, low wages, crumbling infrastructure etc.

The Brexit exit deal still has to get through the UK Parliament, the European Parliament, and...

The odds that it will survive are not looking good.
 
JackLuis said:
Keep us posted on this, Ogg. Save me from reading the Mail. :)
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Your Prez has now stuck his oar in. He says that accepting the deal would make a trade deal with the US less likely. This has caused more division. Those with large investments in the US, like Jacob Rees-Mogg argue that is a good reason to reject the deal and crash out with nothing. Others see it as a good reason to accept the deal as it would mean that our food standards and employment protection could not be used as a bargaining chip in trade deals.

Still, it rambles on with both sides lying to the public.
 
Lying?

Yes, or fudging everything by not taking any line at all.

The Liberal Democrats are clear. They are against Brexit (except one Lib Dem MP whose constituency voted for Brexit by a significant majority).

The DUP want to stay within the UK and see the current deal as splitting Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

The Scottish Nationalist want Scotland to be independent, to be within the EU or to join it as a separate country, but to tear up the fisheries agreement with the EU.

The Conservatives seem split in several directions.

Labour? Fuck knows. Are they for Brexit? Against it? For anything that embarrasses the Conservatives today - probably. Will their stance change tomorrow? Probably. All they seem interested in is bringing about a General Election - or not. Who knows?

Project Fear is rampant. The latest? We'll run out of fresh water after a no-deal Brexit because the water treatment chemicals are supplied from within Europe. The UK water suppliers are mainly subsidiaries of European companies. We might have to resort to water treatment methods usually used in arid countries.

BUT - if we leave with no deal the difference will be cost. The water companies might have to pay more for chemicals from Europe, reducing their profits. It's all about money, not real shortage of supplies.
 
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oggbashan said:
Lying?

Yes, or fudging everything by not taking any line at all.

-

BUT - if we leave with no deal the difference will be cost. The water companies might have to pay more for chemicals from Europe, reducing their profits. It's all about money, not real shortage of supplies.
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Thanks, I've always thought this was about MONEY! I just could not figure out who was planning on gaining and who was loosing?
 
JackLuis said:
Thanks, I've always thought this was about MONEY! I just could not figure out who was planning on gaining and who was loosing?
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Many British companies are owned by European entities. They will lose if there is a hard Brexit but if the London financial markets are damaged, European financial bases will win.

Gibraltar is a tax haven for many Spaniards, which annoys the Spanish government that is losing taxation (and has illicit Spanish wealth concealed). Gibraltar is popular with Spain's wealthy because the bankers speak fluent Spanish, unlike Switzerland or the British Virgin Islands.
 
Is Brexit just another Y2K, massive fear mongering which might not amount to so much. UK has since the 1970's been ganged up on by the Franco German axis which runs the show through its Brussels poodles, thus the real politik is that one can only get concessions negotiating from outside. Therefore the only real alternative is to leave, refuse to pay for anything, and negotiate from there

Not ideal, but May is only offering appeasement of the apparatchiks. Her logical next stop is surrender.

In any case Brexit will be a picnic compared to the financial disaster which will hit Southern Europe as interest rates rise. Italy's sovereign debt at about 300% + of GDP is costing it about 3 times as much per $ as any triple A country. The Germans won't bail them out , the French cannot - and the Brits? It ain't gunna be nice. ;)
 
colddiesel said:
Is Brexit just another Y2K, massive fear mongering which might not amount to so much. UK has since the 1970's been ganged up on by the Franco German axis which runs the show through its Brussels poodles, thus the real politik is that one can only get concessions negotiating from outside. Therefore the only real alternative is to leave, refuse to pay for anything, and negotiate from there

Not ideal, but May is only offering appeasement of the apparatchiks. Her logical next stop is surrender.

In any case Brexit will be a picnic compared to the financial disaster which will hit Southern Europe as interest rates rise. Italy's sovereign debt at about 300% + of GDP is costing it about 3 times as much per $ as any triple A country. The Germans won't bail them out , the French cannot - and the Brits? It ain't gunna be nice. ;)
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No it's not another Y2K. There are real and tangible problems. Much of our industry, especially the car industry, relies on goods travelling back and forth across what will be the border several times before the goods are finished. There are also possible benefits in that companies like Amazon avoid taxes by claiming that they do all of their UK dealing from Luxembourg. In the case of a hard Brexit they will either be forced to admit that is not the case or pay import duties on the goods they sell in the UK.

However, by far the biggest problem is Northern Ireland. The UK is committed to the Good Friday agreement. This calls for an open border between the North and the south. A hard Brexit is not possible with an open border.

In terms of the economic effect of Brexit the only honest answer anyone can give you is "We Don't Know" In the words of J. K. Gailbraith " Only two types of people would make such predictions. Those that don't know and those that don't know they don't know."
 
First point. You cannot negotiate any deal from the same side of the table as the other party. So UK should either walk first and negotiate later, or agree the current nonsense and renege on the so called deal immediately.

Second point. The English Scots and Welsh, excepting the political class couldn't give a rats ass what happens to N. Ireland. Be glad to get shot of them.

And the coming implosion in Southern Europe?
 
colddiesel said:
Second point. The English Scots and Welsh, excepting the political class couldn't give a rats ass what happens to N. Ireland. Be glad to get shot of them.
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Not true, for very selfish reasons we care about what happens in NI because it always overspills to the rest of the UK. The Good Friday agreement is what brought about the end of "The Troubles" in NI. Without it there is a very real possibility those days will return. We don't want that because Irish terrorists did more damage in England than anything since the second world war. The current situation suits the south quite nicely as they have a sort of United Ireland but don't have to deal with those crazy protestants.

Scotland and Wales do care what happens in NI because if the Irish end up with a better deal then they want the same.

And the coming implosion in Southern Europe?
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There will be no Southern Europe Implosion. Those countries are all part of the Eurozone and if problems arise they will be dealt with in the same way that the Greek problem was dealt with. They could, of course, choose to dump the Euro and return to their old currency, in which case they will deal with the problem by printing more money. Should they choose to keep the Euro, but refuse to implement the measures dictated by the other Eurozone states they will be kicked out of the Eurozone and have to return to their own currency. Either way, it will not affect the EU as a whole. It managed to cope with the induction of several virtually bankrupt East European States, a little problem in Italy isn't going to bring it crashing down.

Britain is not and never has been part of the Eurozone so whatever happens is no concern of ours.
 
colddiesel said:
First point. You cannot negotiate any deal from the same side of the table as the other party. So UK should either walk first and negotiate later, or agree the current nonsense and renege on the so called deal immediately.
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Make no mistake about it what we are dealing with here is a divorce. The UK has filed for divorce from the EU. What you are saying here is that in the case of a divorce you have to actually have your decree absolute before you can discuss the division of assets and visitation rights. I don't think it actually works that way.
 
DeYaKen said:
Scotland and Wales do care what happens in NI because if the Irish end up with a better deal then they want the same.

There will be no Southern Europe Implosion. Those countries are all part of the Eurozone and if problems arise they will be dealt with in the same way that the Greek problem was dealt with. They could, of course, choose to dump the Euro and return to their old currency, in which case they will deal with the problem by printing more money. Should they choose to keep the Euro, but refuse to implement the measures dictated by the other Eurozone states they will be kicked out of the Eurozone and have to return to their own currency. Either way, it will not affect the EU as a whole. It managed to cope with the induction of several virtually bankrupt East European States, a little problem in Italy isn't going to bring it crashing down.

Britain is not and never has been part of the Eurozone so whatever happens is no concern of ours.
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Well I am a Scot and had plenty of army experience in colonial insurrections in the 50/s/60's. The proper tactic in NI would have been to kill a decent number of protestants in short order say 500 in a few weeks. Then they would be pleading to go south. That was UK's normal colonial strategy - brutal but it worked.

The fact that Britain isn't part of the Eurozone will not protect it from the Italian implosion. It will happen and they won't be bailed out, especially by the Germans. Have a look at the balance sheets of the German Lander banks, to get a measure of German priorities.

Is Greek unemployment at 30% plus any kind of solution

You are far too optimistic. Good luck, because you will need it. :)
 
DeYaKen said:
Make no mistake about it what we are dealing with here is a divorce. The UK has filed for divorce from the EU. What you are saying here is that in the case of a divorce you have to actually have your decree absolute before you can discuss the division of assets and visitation rights. I don't think it actually works that way.
Click to expand...

False analogy. You cannot negotiate any deal from a position of weakness.Walk away first, tell the EU to whistle for their money. They will bluster and carry on but then they will negotiate and UK would not have to accept the diktat as May has done.
 
DeYaKen said:
Make no mistake about it what we are dealing with here is a divorce.
Click to expand...

colddiesel said:
Walk away first, tell the EU to whistle for their money.
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Do you both really think Brexit will even happen? May has no backing from anyone on this. Even upper class weirdos are against Brexit (and even trying to wield power). They know it's a lose-lose situation.

I can't see how this isn't a complete disaster for everyone involved and it was unbelievably foolish to have even attempted it.
 
colddiesel said:
False analogy. You cannot negotiate any deal from a position of weakness.Walk away first, tell the EU to whistle for their money. They will bluster and carry on but then they will negotiate and UK would not have to accept the diktat as May has done.
Click to expand...

No, it's a perfectly sound analogy. Just like a divorce we could just walk away leaving the house, the car and all our investments. We could cut ourselves off from our children (subjects living in EU).

The weakness comes when having given up everything you return pleading to be allowed access and wanting to be friends. That's when they know they have you over a barrel.
 
The 'Divorce Bill' is badly named.

It is the cost of the continuing financial arrangements for cooperative working that we agreed in recent years - because those cooperations were considered worthwhile for the UK and Europe as a whole.

But some EU bureaucrats have been saying that while the UK will continue to pay they will not get the benefits of the cooperative working. That should be unacceptable. For every refusal of access, the 'divorce bill' should shrink.
 
colddiesel said:
Well I am a Scot and had plenty of army experience in colonial insurrections in the 50/s/60's. The proper tactic in NI would have been to kill a decent number of protestants in short order say 500 in a few weeks. Then they would be pleading to go south. That was UK's normal colonial strategy - brutal but it worked.
Click to expand...

If you checked your history you would find that your preferred method of dealing with the Irish problem is exactly what created the situation that we now have. It goes back to William of Orange. We tried Brutal suppression right up to 1922. It was Bloody, it was brutal and we got our arses kicked.

During the second world war Churchill offered Devalara the six counties in exchange for Irelands Neutrality. He was turned down because although the souths constitution called for the return of the six counties Develara was smart enough to know that it was a poison chalice. UKs Collonial strategy only worked against inferior arms and organisation. It has never worked against a guerilla force, in fact nothing really does.

The fact that Britain isn't part of the Eurozone will not protect it from the Italian implosion. It will happen and they won't be bailed out, especially by the Germans. Have a look at the balance sheets of the German Lander banks, to get a measure of German priorities.

Is Greek unemployment at 30% plus any kind of solution

You are far too optimistic. Good luck, because you will need it. :)
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter whether the Germans want to prop up Italy. They can simply cut them loose from the Eurozone. Let them devalue until their currency is in the same state as the Lira was when they joined. If Italy has to go the same way as Greece, why is that anyone else's problem. The unemployed Greeks may not like it but it is the price they pay for staying in the rich man's club. If the Italians want to stay in the club they will also have to pay the price.
 
dan_c00000 said:
Do you both really think Brexit will even happen? May has no backing from anyone on this. Even upper class weirdos are against Brexit (and even trying to wield power). They know it's a lose-lose situation.

I can't see how this isn't a complete disaster for everyone involved and it was unbelievably foolish to have even attempted it.
Click to expand...

Do I think it will happen? Yes, it probably will but I suspect we will be out in name only for some time. Although May is struggling to hold on to power, anyone who replaces her still has to deal with the fact that a slim majority of the British people voted to leave. It's not for anyone to say whether those people were right or wrong. In much the same way as your presidential elections, they were asked their opinion and we have to live with the result.

The IN or OUT debate has been going on since we joined in 1973 and in 1975 we asked the people whether they wanted to stay in. It was a sixty-six/ thirty-four majority to stay. Even that didn't stop the campaign to leave this time the vote was 51.8% to 48.2% so neither side can really claim an outright win, but for some reason, politicians think they can do a deal that makes everyone happy. All they have succeeded in doing is coming up with deals that make everyone unhappy.

Jacob Rees Mogg is not against Brexit he wants a complete exit with hard borders and trade on WTO rules. Most of his money is invested in the USA so he is very interested in removing all the EU regulations that make it more difficult to sell US products in the UK. However, even he has said that it would take fifty years for the UK to feel any benefit from leaving the EU.
 
DeYaKen said:
If you checked your history you would find that your preferred method of dealing with the Irish problem is exactly what created the situation that we now have. It goes back to William of Orange. We tried Brutal suppression right up to 1922. It was Bloody, it was brutal and we got our arses kicked.

During the second world war Churchill offered Devalara the six counties in exchange for Irelands Neutrality. He was turned down because although the souths constitution called for the return of the six counties Develara was smart enough to know that it was a poison chalice. UKs Collonial strategy only worked against inferior arms and organisation. It has never worked against a guerilla force, in fact nothing really does.



It doesn't matter whether the Germans want to prop up Italy. They can simply cut them loose from the Eurozone. Let them devalue until their currency is in the same state as the Lira was when they joined. If Italy has to go the same way as Greece, why is that anyone else's problem. The unemployed Greeks may not like it but it is the price they pay for staying in the rich man's club. If the Italians want to stay in the club they will also have to pay the price.
Click to expand...

My method of dealing with the Irish problem is not violence which as you correctly pointed out doesn't work. The correct method is extreme violence which certainly does work. Cromwell understood this and killed 50,000 Irishmen and that kept them quiet for 250 years. Morally repugnant it may be, but history has shown time and again that for violence to be effective it has to be totally over the top. The object is to out terrorise the terrorist and make the innocent population completely intimidated.

Italy has 6 times the population of Greece and 11 times the GDP. When Italy either defaults on its loans or fails to recapitalize its debt that problem cannot be excised like Greece. It's just too big. It will impact all of Europe's currency markets including UK.

Portugal and Spain are quaking in their boots behind Italy and even France's debt to GDP ratio is running at 200% - twice the USA's and ten times that of some advanced countries. In a globalized world paying the price will not be limited to the Italians.

And just imagine the impact on intra - European emigration of an Italian collapse under current EU rules it couldn't be stopped. The Nationalists everywhere would exploit it to the n'th degree. :)
 
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