Could non-citizens decide the November election?

query said:

Data pulled from the CCES (http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/home shows that:



They go on to use numbers of 11,000,000 known illegal residents. I am pretty sure that number is closer to 20,000,000.

If Democrats and their apologists here want to argue that "Hey, they are here and we think it is OK for them to vote," it would at least be an honest point of debate.

Insisting it never happens in any significant numbers is laughable.

2.2% using the mid term election figure means somewhere between 250-500K fraudulent votes.


6.4% in the 2008 election means 700K to well over a million.

On a national level those numbers are significant. Concentrate those voters in areas with a large illegal population and it becomes more so.

The same people that argue 1/2 of a degree of warming and a centimeter of sea rise is "significant" and these number are not and you are left with the inescapable conclusion that they either cannot understand statistics and numbers or do not want to.

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query said:

Not a bad point. Voting in this country is an embarrassment. It is because of turnout that elections are in range to be stolen.

I read a piece yesterday that the Al Frankin margin of error victory (which turned out to be fraud) would be also reversed by a decent margin if illegals assumed statistically to have voted did not.

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query said:

A good point that the article raised is that you hardly ever see perjury convictions. Doesn't mean people do not lie.

There is decent statistical sampling about voting by non-citizens. No one asks, "Hey are you a non-citizen and did you vote? Polls that have been taken of the general population do enable you to aggregate out that information when the poll addresses voting and happens to include a question on citizenship.

Given motor voter and get out the vote drive in areas with large concentrations of illegals it is silly to suggest it does not happen in significant numbers.

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query said:

I am not a fan of defacto citizenship because it tends to encourage more migration of unskilled labor and we have plenty of that. However, when someone lives, works, and raises a family in a community, having them vote on those community issues seems reasonable.

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query said:

Does my national vote getting watered down by the votes of illegals in sanctuary cities seem reasonable?

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query said:

Perhaps Republican should start sending flotillas south of Florida and establish Cuban, Chinese, and Eastern European sanctuary cities.

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toubab said:

Wrong again. Totally wrong, on both counts. Where you guys come up with this shit I have no idea. You obviously just like talking out of your asses, with absolutely no facts to back you up. No matter how many times you are shown to be wrong, you just keep coming back with the same nonsense.

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toubab said:

You obviously cannot read the English language with comprehension. No one who has read my posts could possibly believe I'm a right winger. Nobody with a brain.

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toubab said:

Waste of time trying to discuss this stuff in an intelligent fashion with these morons.

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Disgustipated said:

You admit you vote 3rd party which means you really don't vote with conviction.

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query said:

Data pulled from the CCES (http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/home shows that:



They go on to use numbers of 11,000,000 known illegal residents. I am pretty sure that number is closer to 20,000,000.

If Democrats and their apologists here want to argue that "Hey, they are here and we think it is OK for them to vote," it would at least be an honest point of debate.

Insisting it never happens in any significant numbers is laughable.

2.2% using the mid term election figure means somewhere between 250-500K fraudulent votes.


6.4% in the 2008 election means 700K to well over a million.

On a national level those numbers are significant. Concentrate those voters in areas with a large illegal population and it becomes more so.

The same people that argue 1/2 of a degree of warming and a centimeter of sea rise is "significant" and these number are not and you are left with the inescapable conclusion that they either cannot understand statistics and numbers or do not want to.

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toubab said:

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/10/29/massive-non-citizen-voting-uncovered-in-maryland/

"An election integrity watchdog group is suing the state of Maryland, alleging that it has discovered massive and ongoing fraudulent voting by non-U.S. citizens in one county. But because of the way that the non-citizens are able to cast votes in elections, the fraud is likely happening in every single county and subdivision across the state. The group believes that the illegal voting has been happening for years.

The group, Virginia Voters Alliance, says that it compared how voters in Frederick County filled out jury duty statements compared with their voting records. The group’s investigation found that thousands of people in Frederick County who stated that they are not U.S. citizens on jury duty forms went on to cast votes in elections. Either they failed to tell the truth when they were summoned for jury duty, or they cast illegal votes. Both are crimes. The same group previously found that about 40,000 people are registered to vote in both Virginia and Maryland.

It is a federal crime to cast votes if you are not legally eligible to vote. Non-citizens, whether in the country legally or not, are prohibited from voting in most local and all state and federal elections. Yet the VVA investigation found that hundreds of non-citizens have been voting in Frederick County, Maryland. One in seven Maryland residents are non-U.S. citizens.

“The lawsuit is the equivalent of the lookout spotting the iceberg ahead of the Titanic,” state Del. Pat McDonough told the Tatler. He added that the group’s investigation found a voter fraud “smoking gun.”

Maryland state law makes it easier for non-citizens, both those present legally and those in the country against the law
, to vote. Maryland issues drivers licenses to legal and illegal aliens. Driver’s licenses in turn make it easier under the Motor Voter law to register to vote. Maryland also offers copious taxpayer-funded social programs to non-citizens in the state."

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richard_daily said:

I'll eagerly await a list of the names that they found...

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toubab said:

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/10/29/massive-non-citizen-voting-uncovered-in-maryland/

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True the Vote and the Virginia Voters Alliance are Tea Party-affiliated groups that mobilize conservatives around the baseless threat of voter fraud. Reagan George founded the Virginia Voters Alliance after meeting True the Vote leader Catherine Engelbrecht. Earlier this year, the Virginia Voters Alliance held its “Stop the Voter Fraud” Summit in Fairfax, Virginia, that was attended by several hundred activists. Since then, George has also traveled across the state pitching his group’s efforts to local Tea Party groups.

Besides trying to pass restrictive voting legislation, the Virginia Voters’ Alliance focuses on purging voter rolls and establishing “poll watching task forces.” This is the same playbook created by True the Vote, which has landed in legal hot water for its voter purging practices. Just last week, a video surfaced of a “poll challenger training” held in New Mexico that was rife with deliberate misinformation designed to deter voting.

Nguyen anticipates that these poll watching task forces will be targeting Northern Virginia (Prince William County, Fairfax County, and Loudoun County) and Tidewater – the most populous areas of the state with high concentrations of minority voters. In addition, they will visit college campuses and surrounding towns seeking to deter students from registering to vote and/or from casting a ballot in Virginia.

According to Nguyen, the Virginia Voters’ Alliance has created a series of ads designed to let students know they are being watched. Nguyen and her colleagues saw a draft ad that that features a picture of hands in handcuffs, implying that students are breaking the law either by registering to vote in Virginia or by voting there.

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KingOrfeo said:

That comes from Pajamas Media, and the Virginia Voters Alliance is a Tea Party group. We can safely dismiss this story as bullshit until it is reported by more credible sources.

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toubab said:

Come back when you have proof the lawsuit wasn't actually filed.

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about_average said:

11.7m illegals
Assuming 6.4% voted also in the 2012 election, that's slightly over 750,000
So they accounted for slightly under 0.6% of the 131,144,000 votes cast in 2012.
Even if they all voted 100% for the same person, the likelihood of a significant impact is very small.

Compare that to the approximately 50% of states where people have no way to know if their vote went for their intended candidate. Where's the greater risk?

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KingOrfeo said:

I'm pretty sure several Birther lawsuits have actually been filed; they're still bullshit.

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toubab said:

The names are available, obviously, but the Obama administration will have zero interest in investigating this, much less prosecuting those who broke the law.

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about_average said:

11.7m illegals
Assuming 6.4% voted also in the 2012 election, that's slightly over 750,000
So they accounted for slightly under 0.6% of the 131,144,000 votes cast in 2012.
Even if they all voted 100% for the same person, the likelihood of a significant impact is very small.

Compare that to the approximately 50% of states where people have no way to know if their vote went for their intended candidate. Where's the greater risk?

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richard_daily said:

Post a link to them.

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toubab said:

The whole system is a mess.

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KingOrfeo said:

. . . is that using "voter fraud" to steal an election is virtually impossible.

From The Voting Wars, by Richard Hasen:

If I wanted to steal an election using voter impersonation fraud, I'd have to recruit a bunch of people to vote at the polling place using fake names. But they might not follow my directions. They might go into the polling place and not vote, they might vote under their own names, or they might vote for someone other than the candidate I paid them to vote for. This is the problem with any elections crime scheme based on voters using a secret ballot in a polling place.

But impersonation fraud represents an even greater hurdle. There are two ways to impersonate. One way would be to have people claim to be somebody else listed on the rolls. This is obviously problematic: If I send you in and direct you to claim to be Thor Hearne, who I know is registered to vote in that precinct, but Thor has already showed up to vote, you would be immediately subject to arrest.

You might be arrested even if Thor has not yet voted. In many precincts, poll workers are local individuals. One of them could well know him. "You're not Thor" could also land you in jail. Moreover, many places do a signature match. Your signature would not match Thor's.

The other way of doing impersonation fraud would be for me to get you to fill out a registration card with a false name and address. The voter registration card would be turned into election officials, who will check the name and address against existing records. These forms have to be turned in weeks before the election. I'd then need to recruit people to go to the polling place on Election Day and falsely claim to be a person on the list. And federal law already provides that first-time voters must supply a driver's license or Social Security number if they register first to vote by mail -- or provide identification to election officials when they vote for the first time.

Either gambit requires assembling enough coconspirators to affect the outcome of the election. Could I do it, even in a very small election, without getting caught? We don't have a single recent example of anyone even attempting it. Why try such a risky scheme when absentee ballots are so much safer and more reliable? [N.B.: Hasen is not talking about fraudulent absentee ballots but bought absentee ballots; as he notes elsewhere in the book, absentee voting is the one area where vote-buying still happens sometimes, because, unlike voting a secret ballot on e-day, it leaves a paper trail which the buyer can check if he has the right inside connections, or simply check in person by watching the voter fill out the ballot.]

The chance that impersonation fraud can effect a presidential, statewide, or even large city or county election is miniscule. Missouri had about four million registered voters in the 2000s. The idea that impersonation fraud could be done on a large-enough scale to affect the outcome of any major race, without detection by government officials, is ludicrous.

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KingOrfeo said:

This is an amazingly even-handed book, BTW. No one could accuse Hasen (a law prof specializing in elections law) of any partisan bias. He covers every aspect of controversy about voting over which the parties have struggled since 2000, and he cites countless examples where Dems as well as Pubs have not been entirely honest about the whole thing. In his view Dems often cry "Voter suppression!" in cases attributable to incompetence rather than malice. But on the issue of "voter fraud" his conclusions are entirely one-sided: It's a nonproblem the Pubs have whipped up for their own partisan interests.

His general message is that all these problems arise because of two characteristics of the American election system which are highly unusual in a modern republic:

1) The system is "hyperfederalized." Every county's elections office does things its own way, every Supervisor of Elections is elected locally. Even a state Secretary of State has only very limited power to standardize the process.

2) The system is partisan. Most elections officials and SOSs are partisan elected officials. In other republics they are usually civil servants.

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toubab said:

I don't have a link, dumbass. But if you think there aren't numerous people who filled out and signed jury duty forms stating they are not citizens, but then voted, and if you don't think that would be a slam dunk case for a prosecutor, if he were inclined to pursue it, you are dense as hell.

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toubab said:

I don't have a link, dumbass. But if you think there aren't numerous people who filled out and signed jury duty forms stating they are not citizens, but then voted, and if you don't think that would be a slam dunk case for a prosecutor, if he were inclined to pursue it, you are dense as hell.

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KingOrfeo said:

Indeed, but not for the reasons you think.

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toubab said:

Including for the reasons I think.

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toubab said:

Al Franken won by about 300 votes, so a small amount of illegal voting could possibly have had a huge impact on the entire country.

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KingOrfeo said:

Then, it should be an even easier slam-dunk for the Virginia Voters Alliance to prove it in a civil suit with a lower standard of proof. Let's see how that turns out.

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