"Climate Change is Real !!"

rjordan · Mar 4, 2015

trysail said:
Tell us all about the climate sensitivity coefficients that are used in CMIP-5.

It seems your climate science credentials are the important ones here. Not mine.

I have no credentials in climate science.

What are yours?

Have you written for peer reviewed journals or just erotic story sites?

trysail · Mar 4, 2015

by Kip Hansen

...What does this illustration mean scientifically?

More precisely — If the numbers were in your specialty – engineering, medicine, geology, chemistry, statistics, mathematics, physics – and were results of a series of measurements over time, what would it mean to you that:

a. Eleven of the 18 mean values lie within the Uncertainty Range bars of the most current mean value, 2014?

b. All but three values (1996, 1999, 2000) can be overlaid by a ribbon the width of the Uncertainty Range for the metric being measured?

Hypoxia · Mar 4, 2015

rjordan said:
On the other hand, maybe it's right that you're presenting science fantasy at a fiction site. Maybe you could somehow work in a black Navy SEAL with a 12 inch dick for some street cred here.

Don't forget the tentacles.

HandsInTheDark · Mar 4, 2015

Hypoxia said:
Don't forget the tentacles.

A Navy SEAL with a 12 inch cock and tentacles.

Ok, that tears it. We need an equivalent of Godwin's Law for tentacles. And we need it now.

trysail · Mar 4, 2015

by Kip Hansen

...What does this illustration mean scientifically?

More precisely — If the numbers were in your specialty – engineering, medicine, geology, chemistry, statistics, mathematics, physics – and were results of a series of measurements over time, what would it mean to you that:

a. Eleven of the 18 mean values lie within the Uncertainty Range bars of the most current mean value, 2014?

b. All but three values (1996, 1999, 2000) can be overlaid by a ribbon the width of the Uncertainty Range for the metric being measured?

rjordan · Mar 4, 2015

Hypoxia said:
Don't forget the tentacles.

If a black 12 inch dick was pointed at you, you'd think it was a tentacle.

rj

sr71plt · Mar 4, 2015

rjordan said:
Have you written for peer reviewed journals or just erotic story sites?

Trysail's credentials are pretty much limited to stealing and cutting and pasting copyrighted charts to irrelevant forums.

trysail · Mar 4, 2015

by Kip Hansen

...What does this illustration mean scientifically?

More precisely — If the numbers were in your specialty – engineering, medicine, geology, chemistry, statistics, mathematics, physics – and were results of a series of measurements over time, what would it mean to you that:

a. Eleven of the 18 mean values lie within the Uncertainty Range bars of the most current mean value, 2014?

b. All but three values (1996, 1999, 2000) can be overlaid by a ribbon the width of the Uncertainty Range for the metric being measured?

HandsInTheDark · Mar 4, 2015

sr71plt said:
Trysail's credentials are pretty much limited to stealing and cutting and pasting copyrighted charts to irrelevant forums.

Well, that seems unfair. I'm reasonably certain he's paid by the post; and while that isn't likely to even come up to the level of a minimum wage job, it still means he qualifies as a "paid professional". Of a sort.

And that makes him smarter than the rest of us, who are arguing for a realistic world view on an *erotica* site, for free.

Next up: graphs that prove that all women are 23 year old bisexual virgin cheerleaders who secretly crave dirty old men.

trysail · Mar 4, 2015

Tell us all about the climate sensitivity coefficients that are used in CMIP-5.

someoneyouknow · Mar 4, 2015

HandsInTheDark said:
.

Next up: graphs that prove that all women are 23 year old bisexual virgin cheerleaders who secretly crave dirty old men.

One can only wish.

trysail · Mar 5, 2015

Of course the climate is changing.

It has been changing for roughly 4 billion years. I have every expectation that it will continue to change.

What's become obvious, however, is that climatology doesn't understand WHY the climate changes. That fact has been made manifest by the lack of any significant atmospheric warming for the last eighteen or more (18+) years.

JackLuis · Mar 5, 2015

Public Service Announcement

All readers should remember that this is a fiction site.

sr71plt · Mar 5, 2015

JackLuis said:
All readers should remember that this is a fiction site.

I doubt Trysail reads anything on this site other than his own forum thread.

trysail · Mar 5, 2015

We've now had more than eighteen (18+) years of no significant warming.
None. Zip. Nada. Zilch. Zero. Bupkis.

It's all over the scientific journals. It is widely acknowledged.

It is beyond belief that anybody could possibly be that uninformed.

Nature "The Missing Heat" and "The Pause"

http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525

TxRad · Mar 5, 2015

Same graph for the third time with no data explanation or material.

At least it's red which must mean something or does it.

Now back to the 12 inch dick and tentacles. Could the wetsuit be the reason it is black?

lovecraft68 · Mar 5, 2015

All I know is we had what pretty much amounted to as an ice storm last night, shit's an inch thick on my car.

I think more snow for today that's what I heard anyway, I don't bother to look.

The way I feel about climate change, global warming whatever is...

Why worry about it? If its a natural occurrence we can't change it. If it is due to pollution and using certain energies we still can't change it, we as in all us little people.

That decision is in the hands of corrupt politicians and the billion dollar+ operations that line their pockets to keep doing what they're doing.

I get up every day and what I get is what I get. No sense over thinking or worrying about it.

rjordan · Mar 5, 2015

TxRad said:
Now back to the 12 inch dick and tentacles. Could the wetsuit be the reason it is black?

I guess it would work like a full-body Speedo.

To be honest I know about as much about 12 inch dicks as I do whatever the hell trysail pretends to know.

rj

trysail · Mar 6, 2015

U.S. average levelized cost of electricity (2012 $/MWh) for plants entering service in 2019
Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency

Code:

                                          [U]Capacity Factor[/U]     [U]Levelized Cost[/U]
Natural Gas Combined Cycle                      87%               $64.40
Conventional Coal                               85                 95.60
Advanced Nuclear                                90                 96.10
Hydro                                           53                 84.50
Wind                                            35                 80.30
Wind-Offshore                                   37                204.10
Solar                                           25                130.00

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

HandsInTheDark · Mar 7, 2015

lovecraft68 said:
I get up every day and what I get is what I get. No sense over thinking or worrying about it.

That argument works fine for people who are doing ok, have no risk of hunger, don't feel colder or hotter or wetter than they choose to, etc. Most of us here are certainly in that boat. Even if storms get worse, water gets scarcer in some areas and much too abundant in others, etc... most people chatting on an internet site about erotica have by fiat extra resources and time on their hands and will see only small changes, for quite a long time.

The other 70% of the world isn't so lucky. But who cares about them, right? Funny language, odd skin color, they aren't Our People and who gives a damn if a few extra orphans get made in the next mudslide, hurricane or drought? So bread goes up thirty cents a loaf, big whoop. Not a problem.

Unless your total income is a dollar a day.

Some folk here need to get out more, and by Out I mean Out of their comfort zone.

lovecraft68 · Mar 7, 2015

HandsInTheDark said:
That argument works fine for people who are doing ok, have no risk of hunger, don't feel colder or hotter or wetter than they choose to, etc. Most of us here are certainly in that boat. Even if storms get worse, water gets scarcer in some areas and much too abundant in others, etc... most people chatting on an internet site about erotica have by fiat extra resources and time on their hands and will see only small changes, for quite a long time.

The other 70% of the world isn't so lucky. But who cares about them, right? Funny language, odd skin color, they aren't Our People and who gives a damn if a few extra orphans get made in the next mudslide, hurricane or drought? So bread goes up thirty cents a loaf, big whoop. Not a problem.

Unless your total income is a dollar a day.

Some folk here need to get out more, and by Out I mean Out of their comfort zone.

Oh, please.

You don't know me or where I came from. If I didn't get saved by a social worker and put in a foster home I probably wouldn't have lived past 11.

So spare me your pretentious and fraudulent first world guilt and don't try to make me or anyone 'like me' out to be some sort of racist elitist

Save that for the GB where everyone acts like they are sorry for their skin color and where they were born in order to appear as if they give a fuck.

Your income a dollar a day? I doubt it. Seems to me you're typing on one of those fancy inter webz machines yourself....tell you what, why don't you donate it to a third world orphan...in fact why not go live among them and show us all how caring you are?

Hypoxia · Mar 7, 2015

PASCAL'S WAGER is a boneheaded theological argument, to wit: If one believes in a god that doesn't exist, one has lost nothing; but if one fails to believe in the real god, one loses everything. Thus, belief is the smart wager. Ah, but it's boneheaded because other possibilities aren't considered. Suppose the deity is screening morons, and all who believe will be consigned to the pits. Or suppose one believes in the wrong deity; the neglected deity will be a nasty punisher.

That wager, applied to climate change, takes a different tone. If we take actions to counter man-made climate change, and that's wrong, then money, resources, and effort will be wasted. But if we DON'T take action, and we ARE the cause of climate change, then the catastrophic results that COULD have been avoided, won't be.

So, the CLIMATE WAGER: Is it smarter to be proactive, and wrong, or inactive, and have humanity obliterated? The negative consequences are dire. Do we want to risk them? And what else could result? PASCAL'S WAGER is a false binary. Does the CLIMATE WAGER have other possible outcomes?

rjordan · Mar 7, 2015

Hypoxia said:
PASCAL'S WAGER is a boneheaded theological argument, to wit: If one believes in a god that doesn't exist, one has lost nothing; but if one fails to believe in the real god, one loses everything. Thus, belief is the smart wager. Ah, but it's boneheaded because other possibilities aren't considered. Suppose the deity is screening morons, and all who believe will be consigned to the pits. Or suppose one believes in the wrong deity; the neglected deity will be a nasty punisher.

That wager, applied to climate change, takes a different tone. If we take actions to counter man-made climate change, and that's wrong, then money, resources, and effort will be wasted. But if we DON'T take action, and we ARE the cause of climate change, then the catastrophic results that COULD have been avoided, won't be.

So, the CLIMATE WAGER: Is it smarter to be proactive, and wrong, or inactive, and have humanity obliterated? The negative consequences are dire. Do we want to risk them? And what else could result? PASCAL'S WAGER is a false binary. Does the CLIMATE WAGER have other possible outcomes?

I don't think you can equate these. Neither side of the
Theological Wager can be tested in any way. There is no evidence for any god let alone a false god. And there is no evidence against any god either. You're flailing around in the dark either way.

The Climate Wager is different. We have some evidence that some component of climate change is cyclical with or without man. That part we know we can't do anything about. But there is also some evidence that the climate change we are experiencing now is at least partly man-made. So we can hedge the bet somewhat with that information.

97% of our climate scientists agree that there is a significant man-made component, including 1000+ named Steve. 3% and the legendary trysail disagree to one extent or another. There's your wager right there.

rj

trysail · Mar 7, 2015

rjordan said:
I don't think you can equate these. Neither side of the
Theological Wager can be tested in any way. There is no evidence for any god let alone a false god. And there is no evidence against any god either. You're flailing around in the dark either way.

The Climate Wager is different. We have some evidence that some component of climate change is cyclical with or without man. That part we know we can't do anything about. But there is also some evidence that the climate change we are experiencing now is at least partly man-made. So we can hedge the bet somewhat with that information.

97% of our climate scientists agree that there is a significant man-made component, including 1000+ named Steve. 3% and the legendary trysail disagree to one extent or another. There's your wager right there.

rj

The mere fact that you've swallowed that "97%" buncombe is evidence that you haven't done any investigation.

It's a completely bogus number.

trysail · Mar 7, 2015

Anybody who has any experience of computer models of highly complex, multivariate, non-linear systems knows full well that they are a complete waste of time.

Believing In Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast, And Climate Models

by Dr. Chris Essex
Why Computers Cannot Reproduce The Climate, Never Mind Predicting Its Future

ht tp://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/20/believing-in-six-impossible-things-before-breakfast-and-climate-models/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/...e-things-before-breakfast-and-climate-models/

"Climate Change is Real !!"

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